Hawks' Horford merits Rookie award

[conleyorbust]

Durant is likely going to average EIGHT points more than the second place finisher. Thats 66% more points than second place. I doubt you can find an example of someone winning the ROY of the year over a guy scoring 3 points more per game. PPG is just what voters usually go off of. This is going to be a landslide for Durant.

I was saying that there is absolutely no way it'll be unanimous unless the Sonics go undefeated from here on out..

Anyway, Glenn Robinson scored 10.2 ppg (on much better % shooting) more than Kidd and Kidd split ROY with Hill, 10.2 is 340% more points than you said possible to have more than a player and NOT win ROY over him (confusing sentence but the only way to phrase it).

Like I said, Chris Paul was not a unanimous winner. Neither was Roy. Horford has been better than the second place winners in both those years and Durant has been worse than the winners. It will be closer than you think because there are enough media guys out there that actually think Horford should win it.

Look, I think Durant will win it too but some voters are goint to look at Durant's low shooting %, his 3 TOs and only 2 assists, his weak rebounding for a 6'9 player who gets that many minutes, his atrocious defense (and atrocious is a nice word for it), and the fact that he is on the second worst team in the league and they are going to say that he doesn't deserve it. Some voters will want to seem deeper (thats how journalists think). If Atlanta makes the playoffs and Al has a decent stretch here against some crappy teams, I could see him getting some good support.

Some voters are kind of "old school" and want to say that they "value things that matter" and stuff.

[killbuckner]

well- there was another player scoring over 20 PPG that season which changes it but I didn't remember that Kidd snuck up to tie for the award. I still don't think that when one player is averaging almost 20 and no one else is even averaging 12 that voters will take the time to look at anything else. Durant getting it unanimously isn't at all likely, I just think that Horford winning it is even less likely.

[JoshB914]

Durant will get it. Horford deserves it.

[conleyorbust]

well- there was another player scoring over 20 PPG that season which changes it but I didn't remember that Kidd snuck up to tie for the award. I still don't think that when one player is averaging almost 20 and no one else is even averaging 12 that voters will take the time to look at anything else. Durant getting it unanimously isn't at all likely, I just think that Horford winning it is even less likely.

I understand what you are saying, I just think you are severely uderestimating how some members of the media will punish Durant for being so innefficient and on such a terrible team. I wouldn't be suprised if Scola got a vote or two.... but yes, Durant winning was pretty much locked up before a game was played.

Just curious, how does Hill having such a great season "change it" with regards to Kidd beating out Robinson? You said you doubted I could find a guy who averaged even 3 points less than another rookie but still won, I did.

If anything, this season would be close to that one where you have a guy who's scoring numbers aren't amazing but he gets tons of hype (too much sometimes) for his intangibles and the other stuff he brings to the table. Al isn't as the same difference maker Kidd was but Durant isn't close to being as good as Hill was.

[JoshB914]

Durant is going to win on hype alone. It's a shame that a bunch of idiots at ESPN that have never seen the Hawks play have such an influence on public opinion.

[killbuckner]

COB- I think that the large majority of voters go with the top scorer. If 2 scorers are both close then they will pick between them. I think that if it was only Hill vs Kidd or Robinson vs Kidd then Kidd would have gotten crushed. But if the PPG voters are divided between 2 guys then Kidd has a shot. Its like when there are 2 MVP candidates on the same team. They end up splitting votes and they don't usually win. If one guy averages 8 points more than every other rookie I simply don't see any chance he loses the vote.

As I said- I forgot about that- I was wrong that it hasn't ever happened. I still think you are delusional if you think that horford has any chance at all but it wouldn't be as unprecedented as I thought.

[conleyorbust]

COB- I think that the large majority of voters go with the top scorer. If 2 scorers are both close then they will pick between them. I think that if it was only Hill vs Kidd or Robinson vs Kidd then Kidd would have gotten crushed. But if the PPG voters are divided between 2 guys then Kidd has a shot. Its like when there are 2 MVP candidates on the same team. They end up splitting votes and they don't usually win. If one guy averages 8 points more than every other rookie I simply don't see any chance he loses the vote.

As I said- I forgot about that- I was wrong that it hasn't ever happened. I still think you are delusional if you think that horford has any chance at all but it wouldn't be as unprecedented as I thought.

No I don't think Horford will win it. I don't necessarilly thinks its open-shut that he should. Still, by your math Jason Kidd had to have gotten at least a third of the vote +1 that season and I think Horford is capable of doing the same. In yesterday's daily dime Jon Barry put Al has his ROY. Course, since then Durant dropped 32 on 22 shots but one game does not an award winner make.

[tontoz]

This month Durant is averaging 22 ppg shooting 53%.

[JoshB914]

Then he should win Rookie of the Month for March.

[tontoz]

Then he should win Rookie of the Month for March.

If Durant had continued to shoot a poor percentage then maybe Horford would have a chance. But i think his recent improvement pretty much seals it.

[conleyorbust]

-= original quote snipped =-



If Durant had continued to shoot a poor percentage then maybe Horford would have a chance. But i think his recent improvement pretty much seals it.

Al prolly didn't have a chance regardless. Honestly, all KD had to do this season was be better than average and he would win it.

[JoshB914]

So Durant gets rookie of the YEAR because of a great month? I don't think that is fair, although it is what will happen.

[conleyorbust]

So Durant gets rookie of the YEAR because of a great month? I don't think that is fair, although it is what will happen.

This is how people are going to look at it:

Durant has the highest profile and everyone is of the opinion that he is a transcendant talent. In other words, people have wanted to see Durant be amazing from the get-go.

He has been a chucker all season but he made enough plays to be around the 20ppg mark.

This last month will boost his field goal percentage to 43% when its all said and done.

People will look at that, take all the excuses they have made for what has been a disappointing season considering the (unrealistic) expectations (out of position, crappy team, blah blah blah) and say that since he scored 20 ppg on 43% he should win the award because that's what Lebron did.

I'm not even saying that he is a bad choice for ROY, I do think that you can make just as convincing an argument for Al, either way people will look at this year's ROY as a pretty unconvincing selection.

[killbuckner]

COB- the point is that its not at all clear that horford deserves it over Durant. In order for Al to win it despite the massive difference in scoring it would have to be brutally obvious to anyone who was paying attention and even then it would be tough to overcome. And honestly- its not even clear that Horford deserves it more than Scola or Thad Young. Durant is going to win this EASILY.

[conleyorbust]

COB- the point is that its not at all clear that horford deserves it over Durant. In order for Al to win it despite the massive difference in scoring it would have to be brutally obvious to anyone who was paying attention and even then it would be tough to overcome. And honestly- its not even clear that Horford deserves it more than Scola or Thad Young. Durant is going to win this EASILY.

I know, thats why I said this:

I'm not even saying that he is a bad choice for ROY, I do think that you can make just as convincing an argument for Al, either way people will look at this year's ROY as a pretty unconvincing selection.

and I do like Scola a lot but a) voters tend to overlook overseas vets and b) his admittedly impressive impact is limited because he is on a deep team (which is why its impressive when a rookie can earn serious minutes on a team that isn't terrible).

Young is effectively out of the running. He has been a contributor on a suprisingly good team but 20 mpg isn't enough... I mean if you are assuming that voters base their selection on per game numbers, at least Al has an advantage in well-roundedness over KD (basically a double-double) but Thad's raw numbers are Marvin Williams - esque.

[High 5]

COB- the point is that its not at all clear that horford deserves it over Durant. In order for Al to win it despite the massive difference in scoring it would have to be brutally obvious to anyone who was paying attention and even then it would be tough to overcome. And honestly- its not even clear that Horford deserves it more than Scola or Thad Young. Durant is going to win this EASILY.

If you have seen Durant play it's clear he does nothing but try to score. He doesn't really get his teammates involved and he's brutal defensively. But I forgot who I was talking to for a second.

[_BBIB_]

Durant will win.

But it won't be unanimous. Anyone who thinks that hasn't followed the award.


But Horford would probably tell you he'd rather make the post-season. That's the type of player he is