PG picked in the top 4 = sure thing?

[ponder276]

*EDIT: changed to top 4, not top 5*

Just something to consider when talking about highly rated PG prospects. Here's a list of all the PGs who were drafted in the top 4 since the 1990 draft (if a year is not listed, there were no PGs taken in the top 4. I have also included players who can play both PG and SG, such as Iverson and Francis):

1990 draft:
2nd - Gary Payton, all-star

1991 draft:
2nd - Kenny Anderson, all-star

1993 draft:
3rd - Penny Hardaway, all-star

1994 draft:
2nd - Jason Kidd, all-star

1996 draft:
1st - Allen Iverson, all-star
4th - Stephon Marbury, all-star

1997 draft:
3rd - Chauncey Billups, all-star
4th - Antonio Daniels

1998 draft:
2nd - Mike Bibby

1999 draft:
2nd - Steve Francis, all-star
3rd - Baron Davis, all-star

2002 draft:
2nd - Jay Williams (major injury)

2004 draft:
4th - Shaun Livingston (major injury)

2005 draft:
3rd - Deron Williams
4th - Chris Paul, all-star

2007 draft:
4th - Mike Conley (rookie)




So since 1990, 16 PGs have been drafted in the top 4.

- 10 have already been all-stars
- 2 very well could have been without their very serious injuries
- the other 4 are Deron Williams (soon to be an all-star), Mike Conley (just a rook, has all-star potential), Mike Bibby (had a very solid career, somewhat surprising he never made it to the ASG) and Antonio Daniels (has been serviceable, but somewhat of a waste of a top 4 pick).

Basically, once you take out the two seriously injured players, the only PG severely under-performing for a top 4 pick is Daniels, and at least he's had a long, if not spectacular career. If a PG performs well/projects well in college, history suggests he's basically a lock to perform at an all-star level in the NBA, at least during some point in his career. Something to consider when projecting Derrick Rose's draft position?
At the same time, only 1 PG has gone 1st overall over that time period, and he is not really a true PG (Iverson).

[some_rand]

felton?
harris?
antonio daniels?

[bigballa3jj]

felton?
harris?
antonio daniels?

devin harris is having a pretty good year for the nets and is still quite young

[BigSlam]

How long did it take each of them to develop?

[ponder276]

felton?
harris?
antonio daniels?

Wow, I was seriously tired when I posted this. Changed it to top 4, not top 5, and added Daniels into the mix. Post is still relevant, thanks for catching my mistake.

[deNIEd]

Someone should do the same for centers

but good post, never realized that

[Doctor MJ]

Someone should do the same for centers

but good post, never realized that

I'll summarize: That someone will take a big man in the top 4 is close to a sure thing, that that big man will be successful is far from it. Kwame Brown, Michael Olowokandi, Joe Smith, and Shawn Bradley come to mind immediately as busts from the same era that this thread is about.

[tsherkin]

Joe Smith is hard to call a bust; he had some VERY good scoring years before he was traded to a situation that didn't work for him and then became a career journeyman.

[ponder276]

Someone should do the same for centers

but good post, never realized that

CENTERS PICKED IN THE TOP 4:
Centers are a bit tougher to do than PGs, since there is often a fuzzier line between Cs and PFs than there is between PGs and SGs. Players were only included if they played significant time at C, i.e. Sheed, Horford and Bargnani were in (all guys who are probably natural PFs, but play a ton of time at C), but guys like Chris Webber, Keith van Horn, LaFrentz, Shareef, Gasol and Stromile Swift were not (all guys who can play some C, but have mostly played PF throughout their careers). I was on the fence about Tim Duncan, since he PLAYS so much like a center, but has almost always started at PF. Since he is officially considered a PF and not a C whenever it comes to all-star voting, all-NBA teams, etc., I didn't include him. Anyway, here's the list, feel free to comment if you disagree with my classification of players as centers, or not centers:

1991:
4th - Mutombo, all-star

1992:
1st - Shaq, all-star
2nd - Zo, all-star

1993:
2nd - Shawn Bradley

1995:
1st - Joe Smith
4th - Sheed, all-star

1996:
2nd - Marcus Camby

1997:
1st - Kandi man

2001:
1st - Kwame
2nd - Tyson Chandler
4th - Eddy Curry

2002:
1st - Yao, all-star

2003:
2nd - Darko

2004:
1st - Dwight, all-star
2nd - Okafor

2005:
1st - Bogut

2006:
1st - Bargnani

2007:
1st - Oden
3rd - Horford


19 players total
- 6 all-stars
- 3 young players are not all-stars, but have a good to great chance of making it to the ASG (Oden, Horford, Okafor)
- 5 players who are not all-stars (or are unlikely to become all-stars if they are young), but who are still an OK to very solid use of a top 4 pick (Bradley, Smith, Camby, Chandler, Bogut) ---> NOTE: can't believe Camby hasn't been as all-star, but with Amare and Yao in the west, he probably won't get his shot
- 2 serviceable but disappointing players (Darko and Curry)
- 2 true busts (Kandi man, Kwame)
- 1 players who some will call a bust, others will see potential (Bargs)


Pretty much what you would expect. Compared with drafting a PG:
- Less chance of getting an all-star
- Greater chance of getting a bust
- BUT the potential to get an absolutely dominant player (Shaq, Dwight, etc.)

[Troubadour]

How about SFs?

1991
1st Larry Johnson - All-star
3rd Billy Owens

1993
4th Jamal Mashburn, All Star

1994
1st Glenn Robinson - All Star
3rd Grant Hill - All Star
4th Donyell Marshall

1995
3rd Jerry Stackhouse - All Star

1997
2nd Keith Van Horn

1999
4th Lamar Odom

2000
3rd Darius Miles

2002
3rd Mike Dunleavy Jr.

2003
1st LeBron James - All Star
3rd Carmelo Anthony - All Star

2005
2nd Marvin Williams

2006
3rd Adam Morrison

2007
2nd Kevin Durant
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
7 All Stars (LJ, Mashburn, Glenn, Hill, Stack, LBJ, and Melo)
3 Busts (Keith Van Horn, Darius Miles, Adam Morrison)
3 Good, but not great players (Mike Dunleavy Jr., Marvin Williams, Lamar Odom)
1 Role Player (Donyell Marshall)
1 Future Superstar (Kevin Durant)

[Jemini80]

I know it is cool to make fun of KVH and everything, but how is someone who averaged 16 and 7 for their career a bust?

[Doctor MJ]

Joe Smith is hard to call a bust; he had some VERY good scoring years before he was traded to a situation that didn't work for him and then became a career journeyman.

Well, a #1 draft pick who never becomes an all-star I think is a pretty huge disappointment.

[tsherkin]

-= original quote snipped =-



Well, a #1 draft pick who never becomes an all-star I think is a pretty huge disappointment.

Yeah but I think if he was never really put in a place to try and live up to his selection spot after his first two years, personally. He spent a lot of time playing behind or with Garnett and otherwise not in a featured role, right?

I'm not saying he's an all-time great who was repressed or anything but I just think it's hard to make that call given the nature of the teams to which he went.

[Doctor MJ]

-= original quote snipped =-



Yeah but I think if he was never really put in a place to try and live up to his selection spot after his first two years, personally. He spent a lot of time playing behind or with Garnett and otherwise not in a featured role, right?

I'm not saying he's an all-time great who was repressed or anything but I just think it's hard to make that call given the nature of the teams to which he went.

Hard for me to think like that. This was a college player of the year drafted 1st overall. Guys like that get FAR more of a chance to break out at the pro level than your average player. I'm sure things could have been even better suited to him, but they could also have been a lot worse.

[#1KnicksFan]

Chris Kaman is far from a bust. Have you seen the numbers he's putting up?

I'm not surprised about the PG trend. A really good PG in college will usually be a pretty solid PG in the NBA b/c he is already ahead of the field, having already been given alot of responsibility - conducting an offense.

Whereas with big men and other positions (notably SF lately), you're looking more at potential than anything (except with odens, etc.).

[richboy]

Big men in the NBA are like qbs in the NFL. Seems like people reach for them despite if there the best at playing the game. I remember hearing many say that Chris Paul was the most sure bet in his draft. Yet people still took Bogut because you have to take a talented big first.

This would offcourse be good news for Rose. Although many say Rose is compariable in college to the guy that has been a disappointment at the NBA level in Antonio Daniels.