Has John Hollinger been fair to your team?

[eatyourchildren]

I never get the sense that John Hollinger actualy understand basketball in any meaningful way. Any of his 'insights' are based entirely off his statistical analyses.

[Schad]

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Man, what is he smoking? First he says they may be the "best team" in the west to then follow up by saying "deplorable road record, mediocre defense and questionable outside shooting."

There is nothing objective about these comments. If he can't be objective how can he be fair?

'Deplorable road record': 16-22, the worst mark of any Western Conference playoff team.

'Mediocre defense': 14th in defensive efficiency.

'Questionable outside shooting': last by a fair margin in three-pointers made.

Hollinger is being objective, as none of those statements are the least bit untrue. Essentially, he is arguing that the Jazz are such a dynamic offensive team that they are able to overcome these flaws to post a tremendous margin of victory (considering the state of the West)...their Pyth. win% pegs them as a 58 win team.

[Nate505]

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'Deplorable road record': 16-22, the worst mark of any Western Conference playoff team.

'Mediocre defense': 14th in defensive efficiency.

'Questionable outside shooting': last by a fair margin in three-pointers made.

Hollinger is being objective, as none of those statements are the least bit untrue. Essentially, he is arguing that the Jazz are such a dynamic offensive team that they are able to overcome these flaws to post a tremendous margin of victory (considering the state of the West)...their Pyth. win% pegs them as a 58 win team.

Being last in 3 pointers made just means the Jazz don't take a lot of them. The Jazz are tied for 5th in the league in 3 point percentage.

Plus, the 76ers are the last in three pointers made last time I checked.

I do agree with his other observtions though. The Jazz are a pretty average defensive team (I think they'll play more physical in the playoffs but that doesn't always equate to good defense) and terrible on the road...although they tend to play good teams on the road better than the play bad teams on the road for some bizarre reason I can't figure out.

[NO-KG-AI]

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Being last in 3 pointers made just means the Jazz don't take a lot of them. The Jazz are tied for 5th in the league in 3 point percentage.

Plus, the 76ers are the last in three pointers made last time I checked.

I do agree with his other observtions though. The Jazz are a pretty average defensive team (I think they'll play more physical in the playoffs but that doesn't always equate to good defense) and terrible on the road...although they tend to play good teams on the road better than the play bad teams on the road for some bizarre reason I can't figure out.

For any other team, I would say lack of focus and mental toughness.... but on Jerry Sloan's team? I have no explanation.

[Sting3r]

lets just say if Kobe wins the MVP this year, Hollinger might have to quit his job.

[Schad]

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Being last in 3 pointers made just means the Jazz don't take a lot of them. The Jazz are tied for 5th in the league in 3 point percentage.

Plus, the 76ers are the last in three pointers made last time I checked.

I do agree with his other observtions though. The Jazz are a pretty average defensive team (I think they'll play more physical in the playoffs but that doesn't always equate to good defense) and terrible on the road...although they tend to play good teams on the road better than the play bad teams on the road for some bizarre reason I can't figure out.

You're right; somewhere between looking it up and writing it down I got completely muddled...the Jazz are last among the WC playoff teams, not last overall.

His point is still valid, though; the Jazz are the least likely Western Conference playoff squad to 'steal' a playoff game as a result of their shot-making ability from beyond the arc, and thus if they get down by a large margin in a game, the least likely to 'chuck' their way out of the hole.

Of course, the reverse is also true; because of the precise nature of their offense, the Jazz are less likely than any other team to take ill-advised shots, and thus the team most able to translate regular season scoring prowess to the atmosphere of the playoffs.

[NO-KG-AI]

PER is terrific if you know two things:

1) It's going to underrate the value of a distributor

2)It doesn't account for defense.

So if you are measuring statistically, and you account for those two things with watching a player play, you can get a true feel for how good a player is.

You can pad your stats on a bad team it seems, but I can't recall guys topping PER and being on bottom feeders, or very below average teams

[conleyorbust]

Hollinger used to take every chance he could to low-blow the Nets. Now he's practically sucking Devin's D though.

Yeah dude, the Nets totally proved him wrong by kicking ass this season.

Someone answer this, which analysts are better? There definitely aren't any who are more accurate.

Jemini... I think he really loved the Rockets because they played good D. He didn't like the Bucks, Knicks, or Wiz because the didn't play any D... for those of you who remember, quite a few realgm posters liked the Bucks and Knicks for the lower playoff seeds because of all the "talent" they had. As far as the Wiz, they are playing better defense so they are better.

PER doesn't take defense into account beyond blocks and steals but if you read his player analysis he writes in depth about the defensive ability of literally every rotation player in the league. If you think he doesn't understand the value of defense you a) don't read him or b) don't care enough about the truth to speak it.[/i]

[MrDollarBills]

Hollinger has been on point about the Nets the last 2-3 seasons, this year he was pretty much 100% on point, and i also agree with his assessment about how better the Nets will be now that they got rid of Kidd and infused youth into the team.

[wetsthebed]

Hollinger predicted that the Celtics would win 51 this year, that's one more than he predicted we'd win last year.

[NetsForce]

Yeah dude, the Nets totally proved him wrong by kicking ass this season.

I recommend you try reading his articles from the New York Sun, not just the ones from this year but the ones from years past as well.

[Nate505]

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You're right; somewhere between looking it up and writing it down I got completely muddled...the Jazz are last among the WC playoff teams, not last overall.

His point is still valid, though; the Jazz are the least likely Western Conference playoff squad to 'steal' a playoff game as a result of their shot-making ability from beyond the arc, and thus if they get down by a large margin in a game, the least likely to 'chuck' their way out of the hole.

Of course, the reverse is also true; because of the precise nature of their offense, the Jazz are less likely than any other team to take ill-advised shots, and thus the team most able to translate regular season scoring prowess to the atmosphere of the playoffs.

Their ability is fine behind the arc. They shoot 37% from the 3 point line. They just aren't a team of chuckers like the Warriors are. But Korver, Okur, and Deron are all very capable of going out and hitting a ton of 3's.

[eatyourchildren]

PER is terrific if you know two things:

1) It's going to underrate the value of a distributor

2)It doesn't account for defense.

So if you are measuring statistically, and you account for those two things with watching a player play, you can get a true feel for how good a player is.

You can pad your stats on a bad team it seems, but I can't recall guys topping PER and being on bottom feeders, or very below average teams

Isn't T-MAC in ORL the prime example of that?

[JoshB914]

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Man, what is he smoking? First he says they may be the "best team" in the west to then follow up by saying "deplorable road record, mediocre defense and questionable outside shooting."

There is nothing objective about these comments. If he can't be objective how can he be fair?

How do you know he hates your team? Because his opinion (which once again is his JOB to express) is negative regarding the Shaq trade? If there was serious evidence that he actually dislikes the Suns he probably wouldn't have a job.

And no Hollinger did not play basketball. His opinions are based quite a bit on his stats and he admits that. He is just there because he gives a unique opinion than most of the other analysts. A lot of the stuff he uses is the same info that scouts use.

Hollinger also picked the Hawks to make the playoffs this season. That is looking pretty good right now. I would say the guy knows some basketball.

[Mr. Sun]

How do you know he hates your team?

I never said he did. I was responding to a poster who referred to him as hating certain teams.

[ILikeTheGrizz]

PER is terrific if you know two things:

1) It's going to underrate the value of a distributor

2)It doesn't account for defense.

So if you are measuring statistically, and you account for those two things with watching a player play, you can get a true feel for how good a player is.

You can pad your stats on a bad team it seems, but I can't recall guys topping PER and being on bottom feeders, or very below average teams

[erudite23]

Yeah, excellent points by NO-KG-AI. The biggest hole in PER is the way it generally undervalues the top PGs and their contributions. In fact, the reason why he likes to suck hog on CP so much is precisely because he posts amazing PER numbers despite being a PG.

Which reveals the true nature of his bias: himself.

Hollinger is, above and beyond all else, a self promoter. Anyone player or any team which he can latch on to in a way (positive or negative) that will make him look smarter than his fellow analysts is fair game.

I used to think he hate my team (the Jazz) because he was always bashing on D-Will--his re-draft of 2005, done after Deron's first year, had DW going 8th overall, behind the likes of Villanueva, Frye and Felton--and knocking on the Jazz as a whole due to their lower than expected winning margin compared to their record.

But this year he has flipped it around almost entirely. Now he pimps the Jazz as being possibly the best team in the conference BECAUSE of their margin of victory, and was giving Boozer big props until his play dropped off so drastically in January.

No, Hollinger loves himself and his formulas. If your favorite team or player provides him a way to show just how much smarter he is than everyone else, he will use it. It's that simple.

[NO-KG-AI]

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Isn't T-MAC in ORL the prime example of that?

Well the year he had 30+, the Magic were 40-42, and the next year he was around 25 PER, the Magic won 21 games.

Doesn't tell the whole story, but yea.

[reck0n3r]

No. He thinks we're better than we really are.