playoff playing time

[malan331]

the most exciting facet of basketball occurs when a team is truly 10-11 men deep. grunfeld has put together a great combination here. but...............are we gonna continue the liberal rotations during the playoffs? who's our 5 during 4th quarter crunchtime? has ej forgotten those disgraceful schoolyard attempts in the paint by deshawn last playoff? does anybody care that blatche is 3x faster getting back on defense than wood?

[TheSecretWeapon]

If everyone is healthy, here's your playoff rotation:

Guards
Arenas
Stevenson
Daniels

Forwards
Butler
Jamison
Songaila

Centers
Haywood
Blatche

I could see Mason and/or Nick Young picking up a few minutes here and there.

[Spence]

I'd like to see Etan playing some point guard.

[LyricalRico]

I actually think it'll be more like this:

Center - Haywood, Songaila
Forward - Jamison, Caron, Stevenson
Guard - Arenas, Daniels, Stevenson, Mason

I fully expect to see EJ go small and even go with a 3 guard lineup at times, with Mason getting any scraps. No way he trusts Young or Blatche enough to play them at all.

Should be a fun 4 games!

[nate33]

I actually think it'll be more like this:

Center - Haywood, Songaila
Forward - Jamison, Caron, Stevenson
Guard - Arenas, Daniels, Stevenson, Mason

I fully expect to see EJ go small and even go with a 3 guard lineup at times, with Mason getting any scraps. No way he trusts Young or Blatche enough to play them at all.

Should be a fun 4 games!

I don't think EJ will arbitrarily go small. He really hasn't done it that much lately. But I definitely agree that it is unlikely that he'll trust Blatche or Young for any significant minutes.

I see him riding the hell out of Butler and Jamison. Each will play 42+ minutes. Songaila will be the only backup needed in the front court. Arenas, Daniels and Stevenson will handle guard duties. Arenas was get 35+ minutes, knee be damned. That's it. A 7-man rotation.

Blatche could get a few minutes if Haywood or DSong get in foul trouble. Young and Mason won't even play in at least half of the games.

[BigA]

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I don't think EJ will arbitrarily go small. He really hasn't done it that much lately. But I definitely agree that it is unlikely that he'll trust Blatche or Young for any significant minutes.

I see him riding the hell out of Butler and Jamison. Each will play 42+ minutes. Songaila will be the only backup needed in the front court. Arenas, Daniels and Stevenson will handle guard duties. Arenas was get 35+ minutes, knee be damned. That's it. A 7-man rotation.

Blatche could get a few minutes if Haywood or DSong get in foul trouble. Young and Mason won't even play in at least half of the games.

So you see Songaila as the primary backup center in the playoffs? Even recently, when Songaila has been playing better, Blatche has logged more minutes in most games. An interesting exception was the win @ Orlando.

I can see Young not playing unless the Wizards are way behind.

[nate33]

-= original quote snipped =-



So you see Songaila as the primary backup center in the playoffs? Even recently, when Songaila has been playing better, Blatche has logged more minutes in most games. An interesting exception was the win @ Orlando.

I can see Young not playing unless the Wizards are way behind.

I think the playoff series 2 years ago against Cleveland established Eddie Jordan's MO. Eddie Jordan will play who he trusts, regardless of position. (I'm not saying that's necessarily a bad thing, it just is what it is.)

2-years ago, EJ didn't even trust Etan. He only played 6-guys: Arenas, Daniels, Jeffries, Butler, Jamison and Haywood. Arenas sat for a grand total of 3 minutes in the 6-game series. Butler averaged 44 minutes. Jamison, 42. Jeffries and Daniels, 36.

EJ is clearly comfortable with shortening his bench and riding his starters. That's what he'll do.

[doclinkin]

Depends on the match-up.

Take a look at minutes distribution vs. CLE this year and what succeeded/failed.

Take a look at Detroit. Our next tilt with them should be interesting, even if they may be showing their bench more and resting starters.

[MJG]

I don't expect Young to play. Mason and Blatche will get spot minutes, but they will be very low; I'm thinking 10 MPG combined, tops, unless one hits the court like gangbusters. Overall, I'd say something like:

G: Arenas (40), Daniels (34), Stevenson (22)
F: Butler (44), Jamison (40), Stevenson (12)
C: Haywood (30), Songaila (18)

Blatche and Mason will fill in the random gaps that pop up in different places in different games.

Yes, Stevenson at SF and Songaila at C means plenty of going small. I don't think lineups like Daniels/Arenas/Stevenson/Caron/Songaila will be all that rare.

Assuming Arenas doesn't spend the next two weeks limping around on the court, I fully expect him to be playing 40 minutes. Honestly, if anything, that feels low; I wouldn't be surprised to see that number bumped up by a few.

[closg00]

EJ will grind the starters into the ground just like last year.
Also like last year, EJ will have a tight, set rotation no-matter the opposition line-up.

[WaltCulver]

I dunno. I REALLY like Mason's defense -- a bumping, in-your-face, stay-at-home style that I think would have prevented that D-league player from getting a squared-up shot at the basket Wednesday night that lost the game for us.

[Kanyewest]

Nick Young will see some time, especially if the Wizards play Cleavland.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4chIBSAhx0w

More seriously, it wouldn't be bad to throw Nick Young in for 5-6 minutes to see what he's made of.

BTW, I think Mason's defense is nothing special although it probably would have been better than what Gilbert did at the end of the game.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

EJ will grind the starters into the ground just like last year.
Also like last year, EJ will have a tight, set rotation no-matter the opposition line-up.

I believe you and Rico are right, until EJ shows otherwise.

The Wizards aren't defending the perimeter any more. EJ won't play a fresh team that constantly applies pressure defensively. Instead, he'll try to outgun other teams riding the Big Three 42+ minutes each. The result will be the starters won't make stops and they'll get beat at the end of games due to porous defense and fatigue.

EJ has played veterans and a short rotation and his favorites in the past. He didn't play Blatche or Haywood and got swept last year. This year, he'll go with AD and Songaila over Young/Mason and Blatche most likely.

At least Songaila's playing well ...

I think EJ will play eight guys even though with all the injuries this is definitely a 10-deep team. He's going to play Jamison and Butler too many minutes and he's going to lose with them fatigued, just like he did against Milwaukee.

EJ's never shown me that he can handle a full complement of talented players.

(Here's hoping DCZards can show him what I said before the playoffs begin. )

[fishercob]

[quote="Chocolate City Jordanaire"][/quote]

Ye of little faith, CCJ! EJ's never shown he can handle a full complement of players because he's never had one. I think TSW is right on. Blatche will be the primary backup C.

And while it's nice to have 10 or 11 guys that have played this year, most teams cut their rotations to 8 come playoff time; Phoenix played 6 guys last year.

Even so, I think Mason, Young and even McGuire will have opportunities to give spot minutes and provide a lift.

I'd be very surprised to se Gil going 40+ minutes every night, seeing as the med staff has a strict cap on his minutes right now (per today's Post).

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

fisher, what I'm secretly hoping is the Wizards will rest Jamison 3 or 4 games and discover they can win without him logging heavy minutes.

hands has said this before, and I agree, that Jamison would be better as the sixth man.

I'll add that with Gilbert back the offense is going to click with him, Caron, and DS on the outside and with an efficient Haywood inside.

I think Songaila's a real good facilitator and that the offense will be as good or better with his passing and backdoor cuts than it would be with Jamison in there.

I believe Blatche's a better defender and more of a low post presence, when he's not in foul trouble, than Jamison. Blatche's game can be huge next to Haywood in the playoffs because teams won't get easy baskets or many rebounds with the two seven footers in there.

The ideal role, IMO for Jamison would be to come in with AD and Young or Mason and just score like crazy and rebound off the bench.

The Wizards can use his shoulder sprain as an excuse to ease him in off the bench.

I think the BEST THING in the playoffs would be to get Blatche, Songaila, Mason, and Young all confident and involved and ready to play 10-20 minutes of good basketball; and for the starters to do their thing.

Washington's starters can win at the FT line or just by outscoring opponents AS LONG AS THEY'RE FRESH AND HEALTHY.

However, the bench has to contribute and EJ can't just go small.

I really think this team has the talent to get to the finals and maybe even compete for a title right now.

It's the coaching and the defense that worry me.

If they play defense and use their deep bench this team can beat ANYBODY.

I just don't think EJ's up to it, however.

[nate33]

fisher, what I'm secretly hoping is the Wizards will rest Jamison 3 or 4 games and discover they can win without him logging heavy minutes.

hands has said this before, and I agree, that Jamison would be better as the sixth man.

I'll add that with Gilbert back the offense is going to click with him, Caron, and DS on the outside and with an efficient Haywood inside.

I think Songaila's a real good facilitator and that the offense will be as good or better with his passing and backdoor cuts than it would be with Jamison in there.

I believe Blatche's a better defender and more of a low post presence, when he's not in foul trouble, than Jamison. Blatche's game can be huge next to Haywood in the playoffs because teams won't get easy baskets or many rebounds with the two seven footers in there.

The ideal role, IMO for Jamison would be to come in with AD and Young or Mason and just score like crazy and rebound off the bench.

Jamison is still a vastly better player than either Songaila or Blatche. If Jamison comes off the bench, it's going to be hard to get him more than about 28 minutes a game. Jamison is too good to play just 28 minutes. (Or, more accurately, Blatche isn't good enough that he should take minutes 29-38 from Jamison.)

That said, I agree with your blueprint. This is the general direction in which we need to go. We're just not there yet.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Jamison would be be better as a 6th man in the same sense that KG would be better as a 6th man. The question is about what would be better for the Wiz. Now, if the Wiz had a KG, yeah -- it'd be great to bring Jamison off the bench. But, they have Blatche and Songaila. Jamison is better -- by a lot. And the team is far better with Jamison on the floor.

[nate33]

The one thing this season (and last season's playoffs) have shown is that Jamison is capable of handling a higher scoring load without a serious dropoff in efficiency. It's a bit of a waste to have him out there on the floor alongside Arenas and Butler. I can see the logic in making him a 6th man if the idea is to maximize his time on the floor when at least one of Arenas/Butler is sitting.

Ideally, the rotation should be arranged so that there are always two among the Big Three on the court. Unfortunately, it's kind of difficult to do when all 3 start.

This is the dilemma faced by San Antonio. Their solution was to bring Manu off the bench. It's something I could see us doing, but not until Blatche gets better.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

Jamison would be be better as a 6th man in the same sense that KG would be better as a 6th man. The question is about what would be better for the Wiz. Now, if the Wiz had a KG, yeah -- it'd be great to bring Jamison off the bench. But, they have Blatche and Songaila. Jamison is better -- by a lot. And the team is far better with Jamison on the floor.

I rarely disagree totally with you, TSW, but this time I do.

San Antonio won a couple championships bringing their second or third best player off the bench. Manu Ginobili sacrificed starting for the good of the team. SA is way better with him on the court but that doesn't mean he has to start for them. He enfused energy off the bench and he finished games for them.

That's where I believe Jamison would be most effective.

Blatche has two problems with his game that greatly reduce his effectiveness: fouls and lapses in intensity/concentration. That said, when he's on the court he's a far better offensive rebounder than Jamison and he's nearly as productive a rebounder on a per-minute basis. Andray is a very good passer as well. On top of that Blatche is the best shot blocker on the team. If he played WITH Haywood, his weakside help would make the team very solid defensively. Much better defensively than with Jamison. When Blatche plays PF and Haywood is the C, it's a very effective pairing and the Wizards become a big team.

Conversely, Jamison's advantage is quickness over other PFs but he's giving up lots of size. In a playoff series the big grinders so to speak can pound on him. I think keeping Jamison at the top of his game, particularly coming off a shoulder injury, should be the focus for the playoffs. He shouldn't be counted on to score 30 a night like he did against Cleveland last year (when the Wizards got swept).

The reason Jamison's offense wouldn't be missed with Andray a starting PF is because Gilbert is back and Caron is in the lineup.

I think the team's BETTER with Blatche at PF despite Jamison being the far better player.

Sometimes teams are better with less talent/offense and more role players. If you look at Songaila's per-minute production with the starters the past 5 or 10 games, you could argue he's been more productive than Antawn. He's passed brilliantly and he's scored without taking any bad shots.

This might seem counterintuitive, but I'm pretty sure the team's just as good with Songaila or Blatche at PF when Gil and Caron are on the floor than they would be with Jamison.

Defense, shotblocking, passing and less shot jacking are why.

NOT TO MINIMIZE THE REAL PLUS WOULD BE PLAYING JAMISON LIKE GINOBILI -- off the bench and at the finish of games.

I'd just rather see 33 minutes of all-out Antawn and have Blatche in the game early come playoffs.

I am pretty sure this would be better than 44 minutes of Jamison, getting beat up by fresh guys like Varejao late in the playoff games.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The one thing this season (and last season's playoffs) have shown is that Jamison is capable of handling a higher scoring load without a serious dropoff in efficiency. It's a bit of a waste to have him out there on the floor alongside Arenas and Butler. I can see the logic in making him a 6th man if the idea is to maximize his time on the floor when at least one of Arenas/Butler is sitting.

Ideally, the rotation should be arranged so that there are always two among the Big Three on the court. Unfortunately, it's kind of difficult to do when all 3 start.

This is the dilemma faced by San Antonio. Their solution was to bring Manu off the bench. It's something I could see us doing, but not until Blatche gets better.

nate, I swear I hadn't read your post when I posted.

You have said exactly what I was trying to say, only better and much more succinctly.

I will only add that Blatche doesn't need to get better IMO. He just needs to start and get yanked early in favor of Jamison if he struggles. The more Andray plays along competitors like Gil, DeShawn, Caron, and Brendan the better that kid's going to get. He'd become a good starter in short time would be my guess.

AB is so versatile and he can catch a lot of lob dunks and get putbacks if he'll run the court. He also can make other team's bigs have a hard time defending him if he starts hitting that midrange shot consistently, as it appears he's about to do.

I don't think he's needs to get better so much as he needs to play with the better players, the starters, so as to not put him in a position where he's trying to do too much. Also, if he starts his head will be in the game from jump. And last, as a starting PF Blatche won't foul as much due to Haywood's solid defense and also because Andray won't charge. He'll have Gil and Caron and DeShawn and Brendan to pass to.

Start Blatche at PF and see how well it would work out.