playoff playing time

[hands11]

Only 5 games to go. It's no longer about the players. Simply saying, I know we have the players. We have mad talent on this team. I would go as far as to say we may have to much talent. Well, at least to much talent to put on the floor at the same time. What I'm getting at is, we need to spreed it out and balance the line ups.

IT'S ALL ABOUT EDDIE JORDAN - THE SPOTLIGHT HAS BEEN TURNED ON

I think the best option is to split up GA and CB in the starting line up. The problem with our version of the big three is simply, you need a big as part of a big three. CB, AJ, BH is better. We can actually create several bigs 3 combinations.

CB, AJ, BH
GA, AJ, BH
GA, CB, BH

GA, CB, AJ is my least favorite big 3 combo of stars on this roster because it requires one of them to tone down their game so the others and the team can also be involved and it doesn't have a strong post presence. Again, we are better if we spreed it out.

You see this team run one way under CB and another under GA. That's fine. Use that to your advantage. We can actually field 2 different starting quality line ups.

GA last game showed the type of creative player he can be. I also like the AB runs well with him. GA is way up tempo. I would let him run with the young guns. Him coming in off the bench is actually perfect for us. I wouldn't change that. It puts a ton of pressure on the other team to have to game plan against that.

If they are a standard team like DET or CLE we can go.

AD, DS, CB, AJ, BH start
GA, RM, NY, Songaila, AB - run forest runnn.

Then start blending them together. Basically, stay with what we are doing.

Leave GA where he is and be sharp is rotations and subs given what you need in any given game. Know what combos work.

11 players deep. I wouldn't shorten anything in the first round.

[LyricalRico]

Yes, Stevenson at SF and Songaila at C means plenty of going small. I don't think lineups like Daniels/Arenas/Stevenson/Caron/Songaila will be all that rare.

Yep.

[doclinkin]

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Doc, you got that last list sorted backwards. A high positive number is good. (And check out who ranks 2nd in the league in free throws allowed differential.)

Yeah, okay right. I knew it made no sense. So that makes my point even stronger.

[TheSecretWeapon]

An 11-deep playoff rotation? Maybe I just lack insight, but that seems a sure bet to lose quickly and badly. I don't have time to check basketball-reference.com, but can anyone think of a team that did well in the playoffs with an 11-man rotation? I can't. Shoot, I'm not even sure I could name a successful regular season NBA team that regularly went 11 deep in their rotation.

[fishercob]

Kevin, you plainly lack insight.

[doclinkin]

I have nothing to back me up but a hunch

That's what Quasimodo said.

[DCZards]

He may well still be the future, but he's not ready to supplant Jamison. Plus, re-integrating Gil is challenge enough for this team. Moving Jamison to the bench would be a complete upheaval, and the playoffs aren't the right time.

Therein lies the single best reason for NOT benching AJ in favor of AB at this point.

[bulletproof_32]

An 11-deep playoff rotation? Maybe I just lack insight, but that seems a sure bet to lose quickly and badly. I don't have time to check basketball-reference.com, but can anyone think of a team that did well in the playoffs with an 11-man rotation? I can't. Shoot, I'm not even sure I could name a successful regular season NBA team that regularly went 11 deep in their rotation.

Regarding the bolded part - the team that immediately came to mind was the 50 win Griz team under Hubie a few years back, but after checking b-ref they didn

[hands11]

An 11-deep playoff rotation? Maybe I just lack insight, but that seems a sure bet to lose quickly and badly. I don't have time to check basketball-reference.com, but can anyone think of a team that did well in the playoffs with an 11-man rotation? I can't. Shoot, I'm not even sure I could name a successful regular season NBA team that regularly went 11 deep in their rotation.

I laid out the line ups. 10 players. I didn't think they would all get 15 minutes or more each.

Then said "11 players deep. I wouldn't shorten anything in the first round."

DMAC can be used when needed.

We are that deep and in the first round we should use our players. That for me gives us the best chance to win while keeping 1/2 injured players healthy and the line ups that are working .. working.

But we have 5 more games to see how this works. We still have a lot of integration to do before the playoffs arrive. GA has only 2 games back and they were very different games. Then we only had 1 game with himself, CB, AJ and AD healthy.

Lots to do. Very little time.

[hands11]

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Here's the problem, CCJ. On a given night, you don't know which Dray you're going to get.

I don't fault you one bit for being a bit enthralled with the possibility of "good Dray" playing with Haywood and 2 of the Big 3. We all started salivating over that last season. And on balance, Dray has made strides this year. he's had some big games and big moments.

But "bad Dray" still shows up too much with too little energy and constant fouling. Heck, even Good Dray gets the whistle a lot.

He may well still be the future, but he's not ready to supplant Jamison. Plus, re-integrating Gil is challenge enough for this team. Moving Jamison to the bench would be a complete upheaval, and the playoffs aren't the right time.

I think he is ready to contribute. Specially if he is put in a line up that allows him to be productive giving his skills. I like what I have seen with him and GA together.

The kid needs to be given a chance. He needs the experience. I feel confident he will produce some good results, come out with energy.

The key for me is GA playing the same kind of game he played his last game only with improving D.

[fishercob]

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I think he is ready to contribute. Specially if he is put in a line up that allows him to be productive giving his skills. I like what I have seen with him and GA together.

The kid needs to be given a chance. He needs the experience. I feel confident he will produce some good results, come out with energy.

The key for me is GA playing the same kind of game he played his last game only with improving D.

I agree that he's ready to contribute, but that doesn't mean that it makes a lick of sense to replace an all-star in the starting lineup with him after an 82 game regular season.

You say he needs to be given a chance as if he hasn't. He's been the primary backup center and part-time backup PF all year. He's started games at both positions. I don't know why starting him now would suddenly make him more consistent.

There was a time last season when I advocated starting Blatche over Stevenson, and moving Caron to G. I loved the Big 3's O with the length and defense of AB and BTH together.

It makes less sense now. Deshawn has emerged as an important perimeter defender. Plus, depth and center is an issue. You can't rail against EJ for going small too often and then ask Songaila to be the backup center. Bringing Blatche off the bench ensures well always have a shotblocker on the floor.

I do share your sentiment a little bit about "too much talent." but that's a good problem and one that should be addressed in the offseason. If we can consolidate two or three players in to one high-impact one, we could be really good.

[BanndNDC]

I've always been a proponent of not drastically shortening the rotation in the playoffs. I know coaches always do it but i kind of think that has as much to do with them not wanting to worry about managing players (instead wanting to concentrate on calling plays and stuff) as anything else.

There are two examples that i feel provide a good reason for it. 1) the Knicks loss in the Finals (oh so many years ago) in which Pat Riley should be singlehandedly blamed for their loss for his extreme reliance on John Starks (especially considering he had both Rolando Blackman and Hubert Davis on the bench). and 2) the Wizards win against the Bulls (seemingly another lifetime ago) in which much of our success (and future success since it's what made us finally give up on KFB) could be placed on the play of the constant rotation of the bigs (Wood, Etan and Ruffin) who each gave us significant contributions and key help from Dixon. In that circumstance we had smart players on the end of the bench who were either vets or tested deep into the tourney. When you have vets (or guys with big game success experience) a deeper rotation can give you an invaluable edge since it enables a team to keep their intensity going non stop (intensity (like yawning) is contagious).

This year I'm not as sold on deep rotations since the bench doesnt have the big game experience of years past. basically I don't trust N. Young enough to rely on him for anything more then spot duty in the playoffs and Blatche has been too inconsistent. We can't afford to eff up on rotations or lollygag in the playoffs. That being said, to be really successful (ECF finals) will require 10 players to have an impact. It will require that Blatche makes some significant contributions, Songaila keep up his solid play, several decent games from Mason and one big contribution from either mcguire or young (oh and stevenson can't suck and wood cant pout).

But, I'm afraid that Mason is who will be frozen out (which we will end up ruing in the end) and Blatche will continue to be inconsistent. If we go 8.75 deep I'll be happy this year.

[nate33]

McGuire definitely will not see minutes. He and Opec will only see the floor in garbage time. There isn't any question about it.

So that leaves 10 players. Obviously, the starting 5 plus Arenas and DSong will get generous minutes. That's a given. All those guys will get at least 20 minutes a game.

So we're really talking about spots 8, 9 and 10, for Blatche, Mason and Young. I think EJ will try his best to stick with just 7 guys, but Blatche is sure to get some spot minutes - maybe 5-10 a game, simply because we have limited front court depth.

I think that's about it. Mason or Young might get a couple of minutes every other game or so, but I don't see them in the regular rotation. I'm fairly certain we will play multiple games with just an 8-man rotation unless there's garbage time.

[mhd]

McGuire definitely will not see minutes. He and Opec will only see the floor in garbage time. There isn't any question about it.

So that leaves 10 players. Obviously, the starting 5 plus Arenas and DSong will get generous minutes. That's a given. All those guys will get at least 20 minutes a game.

So we're really talking about spots 8, 9 and 10, for Blatche, Mason and Young. I think EJ will try his best to stick with just 7 guys, but Blatche is sure to get some spot minutes - maybe 5-10 a game, simply because we have limited front court depth.

I think that's about it. Mason or Young might get a couple of minutes every other game or so, but I don't see them in the regular rotation. I'm fairly certain we will play multiple games with just an 8-man rotation unless there's garbage time.

Mason has proven this year that he can hit the 3. I wouldn't be surpirsed if gets PT if AD is struggling.

[doclinkin]

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Since we're talking playoffs, I'm looked at it realistically -- in other words, Jamison-Arenas-Butler are not going to be limited to 36-38 minutes.

Dunno really. Seems like a key point overlooked in this discussion is that we have back maybe 75% of the Gil we used to know. And we're not likely to get back a full-speed full strength Gil for another half year at least, even when he regains his stamina. That ain't happening in a half-dozen games or so.

This version of Gil is trying to trade points in the paint for passing skills. Nice to see the dimes, and it's an adjustment that'll help some, but it takes away the aspect that made Gil one of the toughest guards in the league. Toughest to guard that is. We lose his FT's, we lose the cheap fouls on opponent Bigs, and softened late-game D. We've seen he still has remarkable range on his shot, and good speed, good handle. But it's not quite the same hardwood ninja we all came to love.

And teams haven't even started to adjust yet. Pretty soon they'll start to crowd him. For now, Mason is a bigger threat to drive the paint than Gil. Daniels definitely is. Nick Young is.

Now, Gil being Gil, at some point he abandons good sense and fear alike and shifts into attack mode, consequences be damned. But he'll still be missing the lift in his jump and hairtrigger first step. May try to do too much, chasing his muscle memory, trying to rediscover his game. But even if not, his defense is bound to suffer some, especially late game.

In any case I seriously doubt we see 40 minutes of a productive Gil any time soon. That's why I advocated preserving his bench role, so we get the maximum return on Gil for minutes invested.

We play pretty well without him, when healthy elsewhere. With Gil in reserve he becomes a not-so-secret weapon. No derringer in the sleeve, but a .45 side arm in a quickdraw holster. His addition to the bench adds more than trying to blend him into a successful starting line.

Off the bench then we know we'll see:
Gil, 1G 2G, first guard off the bench, replacing either starter.
DS9, Forward and Highpost 5 as match-ups dictate.
Dray, Length in reserve of Brendan.
---
As needed, when match-ups dictate:
Nick, for instant offense, a big guard, efficient points.
Mase, 3pt gun if Gil is struggling.

Since EJ likes a bench dump our 2nd quarter 2nd unit will occasionally see a line of: Gil. Nick. Caron. DSong. Dray.
---
Situational only:
DMac: defense only late-game subs if a forward fouls out or the like. Or if we can afford to rest both Caron & Tawn when the 2nd unit is scoring well.

Opec: Hopeless cases only, where we need offense from all spots and only a miracle will help.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

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That's what Quasimodo said.

Irony of ironies is that on Friday I watched with the small kiddies Disney's Hunchback of Notre Dame.

Quasimodo was singing and I took notice of that, doc.

Me and Quasimodo, just living on our hunches ...

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

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Here's the problem, CCJ. On a given night, you don't know which Dray you're going to get.

I don't fault you one bit for being a bit enthralled with the possibility of "good Dray" playing with Haywood and 2 of the Big 3. We all started salivating over that last season. And on balance, Dray has made strides this year. he's had some big games and big moments.

But "bad Dray" still shows up too much with too little energy and constant fouling. Heck, even Good Dray gets the whistle a lot.

He may well still be the future, but he's not ready to supplant Jamison. Plus, re-integrating Gil is challenge enough for this team. Moving Jamison to the bench would be a complete upheaval, and the playoffs aren't the right time.

firsher, I agree completely that Anrday's game is "like a box of chocolates". You really don't know what you're going to get. But that's okay for short duration.

Young guys make young guy mistakes. That said, look back the past few playoff finals at the contributions of young guys like second-year Tayshaun Prince, rookie Boobie Gibson, rookie Sam Cassell, rookie or second-year Robert Horry, and second or third-year Tony Parker.

All those guys made an impact early.

Andray's talented enough to do the same because he adds size and versatility to an already talent-laden, veteran team.

fisher, all Andray has to do is run the court, catch the ball, pass the ball, rebound and finish at the basket in short stretches of minutes. He can do that. But if he doesn't, no big deal. Bench him.

Jamison IS way better but I want Andray to spell both Brendan and Antawn so they don't get too tired out. Starting him and giving him the quick hook makes MUCH MORE SENSE to me than counting on him off the bench to bring a spark.

MAYBE if he comes off the bench with Gil in a running lineup, along with Nick Young, it will work out nicely.

I'd just prefer that bigger, rebounding, defensive squad with Blatche and Haywood (despite what 82games says doesn't work).

[TheSecretWeapon]

The reason coaches shorten their rotations for the playoffs is that they want to get their best players on the court for the most minutes. Fatigue isn't the issue that it is in the regular season because the travel is much reduced and there are no back-to-backs. So there's no reason to play lesser guys -- the top players don't need more than a few minutes rest.

doc points to the one rotation-expanding possibility for the Wiz -- health. Arenas may still see his minutes limited because of his knee. That could mean a few minutes for Mason, or it could just mean extra playing time for Stevenson and Daniels. Regardless, the Wiz should not use more than a 7 or 8 man rotation in the playoffs. Get the best players and the best lineups on the floor. Young and McGuire aren't trustworthy yet. Mason and Blatche are borderline. And, because other teams shorten their rotations, they wouldn't get to go against opposing bench as much -- they'd be facing topline players.

[fishercob]

^------Kev, I'm okay with this as long as we continue to see Blatche as the primary backup center. If Songaila takes Blacthe's C minutes -- especially playing alongside Jamison -- the results will be catastrophic, and I'll likely throw up a lot.

[doclinkin]

The reason coaches shorten their rotations for the playoffs is that they want to get their best players on the court for the most minutes. Fatigue isn't the issue that it is in the regular season because the travel is much reduced and there are no back-to-backs. So there's no reason to play lesser guys -- the top players don't need more than a few minutes rest.

doc points to the one rotation-expanding possibility for the Wiz -- health. Arenas may still see his minutes limited because of his knee. That could mean a few minutes for Mason, or it could just mean extra playing time for Stevenson and Daniels. Regardless, the Wiz should not use more than a 7 or 8 man rotation in the playoffs. Get the best players and the best lineups on the floor. Young and McGuire aren't trustworthy yet. Mason and Blatche are borderline. And, because other teams shorten their rotations, they wouldn't get to go against opposing bench as much -- they'd be facing topline players.

Should or shouldn't doesn't matter. The fact is with these players we've seen scoring droughts int he regular season against mediocre defensive teams. And in the playoffs, defense is paramount because you have time to gameplan against a team. Scoring at an NBA level is such an improbably tough task in the first place, you jsut have to make it aliitle more difficult to make all the difference.

The re-addition of this Gilbert can't make up for the shortfall by himself. I'll guarantee you, with little as collateral but my reputation as a forecaster and savant, that we will see either of Nick Young or Mason in key minutes in the Wiz' playoff games. And that the win or loss in that game will have some small part to do with the performance of that player. Mason probably, unless there's a clear match-up call for a big guard. (I can see Nick on court vs Cleveland, less so against Detroit since Rip would torch him off screens).

It's a chemistry thing. Gil next to Daniels works alright, but AD has no reliable outside shot for the penetrate and kickout. Gil still feels most comfortable with the ball, gets lost as an offball player-- if you're putting him in the game it's as a potential threat or extra ballhandler. Who supplements his game best? DSteve, yes, but you're not playing DeShawn all game, you'll have to steal minutes. And injecting Gil off the bench, you're looking for offense, uptempo style. DS2 can run, but not at 40+ minutes per game everygame. Mason gives you better uptempo, Young gives you better finishing at the rim.

Who are we talking about here. We're talking about Edward Montgomery Jordan-- when in doubt bet on offense. If the offense bogs down, we'll see substitutes from the second unit. No question in my mind.

And again, vs Cleveland, reliable or not, they've got a ton of semi-unskilled bigs, but they're huge, Songailia sees play agaisnt them, but this is the squad that EMJ has most often sent out his ultrabig (Brendan + Dray) line. I may be crazy but I think I recall seeing Darius once with both of them, I forget. Point being I don't expect if we play CLE we'll have Darius as the only center back-up. Detroit neither considering Dray's relative success against Sheed. And one constant has always been, Brendan ain't playing 40 minutes a game. One way or the other.

That's eight or nine depending on match-ups and how well we're scoring.