Draft Mindset: Go for the homerun or get the safe glue guy?

[Bernman]

The original question strikes me as a false dilemma. With a top 10 pick there's no reason you can't attempt to find a player who both has potential to be an outstanding player while also being a good fit for your team. The best way to find a player who fits that description is by scouring the list of college veterans who are being underestimated because teams believe there's something wrong with you if you stay in school. A great case in point would have been Chris Douglas-Roberts, who would have been as a second rounder still had Memphis been ousted in the 2nd round by Mississippi St. As it has transpired, he still has the potential to be an outstanding player for someone who would be drafted in the Bucks' position, in addition to being a "glue" guy.

However, if the Bucks insist on gambling, these are the biggest boom-bust players who are projected as possible lotto picks: DeAndre Jordan, Anthony Randolph, Earl Clark, Hasheem Thabeet, Donte Greene, and Nicholas Batum. JJ Hickson is another player who declared early that could be an all star level player if he develops. He may be available in the 2nd, and could fulfill your gambling addiction, while we still play it "safe" for our more meaningful pick.

[gobbler]

I think obviously you have to go for that "special" player anytime you can, because that is how you win championships - or even just have success. Still, I don't think you avoid guys like Battier to draft whatever 19 year old can dunk the coolest. If there is a kid who seems to have it all together, but is just physically young, take him first, but if a kid has serious holes in his game, take the player with a more refined game. I think a lot of people and GM's like to imagine that kids with serious holes in their game will just magically have these holes disappear in a couple years.

I also totally agree with gambling with the 2nd pick if guy just came out too early.