MVP Watch 2008... Part 5

[tkb]

Ultimately if you have the number one seed you have the edge. If the voters don't vote for Paul they are doing something out of the ordinary in their method of selection. The only time a number 1 seed doesn't win the MVP is when they share the load ala Detroit.

It can happen. It's only been 2 years since it happened last time, and the reason why it happened was because the MVP that season helped carry his team to one of the top records (3rd in conference) with major injuries to his roster. Kobe has done that this season, with a better record than Nash had and with better individual play than Nash did.

Paul's play this season makes it a really tough vote though, because both him and Kobe are clearly deserving to take home the Maurice Podoloff trophy.

[NO-KG-AI]

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Compared to last season I'd say Peja Stojakovic.

That's fair, but those projections were saying "if Peja is healthy" the Hornets could get into the playoffs.

Both teams are far ahead of expectations, I just think the Hornets are doing more than expected, and Chris' improvement has a bigger part in that than Kobe improving the Lakers.

I wouldn't be disappointed if any of Paul, Kobe, or Garnett won though to be honest.

[tkb]

That's fair, but those projections were saying "if Peja is healthy" the Hornets could get into the playoffs.

Both teams are far ahead of expectations, I just think the Hornets are doing more than expected, and Chris' improvement has a bigger part in that than Kobe improving the Lakers.

I wouldn't be disappointed if any of Paul, Kobe, or Garnett won though to be honest.

I'm not hating on Paul. He's certainly played a big part in the Hornets improvement this season. I also think Kobe has been a big part of the turnaround in LA, so I give them both a lot of credit for what they have been able to do with their teams. I'd be perfectly fine with Paul winning it, and I was listing him as my MVP on the Lakers board yesterday at the latest.

It has to be either Kobe or Paul at this point IMO. Right now I got Kobe, but it's so close.

[NO-KG-AI]

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I'm not hating on Paul. He's certainly played a big part in the Hornets improvement this season. I also think Kobe has been a big part of the turnaround in LA, so I give them both a lot of credit for what they have been able to do with their teams. I'd be perfectly fine with Paul winning it, and I was listing him as my MVP on the Lakers board yesterday at the latest.

It has to be either Kobe or Paul at this point IMO. Right now I got Kobe, but it's so close.

Oh yeah bud, I know where you stand on this, I didn't think you were hating

[Bgil]

tonight was a wash IMO

impressive performance by kobe, nearly messing around and getting a triple double, but you can't ignore 15/17/5 and cutting the 30 point lead to ONE.

Interesting stat:
Paul gets 17 assists on 3 turnovers and his team finishes with 27 assist and 11 turnovers. Lakers had 27 assists and 12 turnovers.

That said, I don't see how you can ignore the fact that Paul's play wasn't very good overall. He played like crap for most of the first half which caused the 30 point lead. He couldn't control his foul situation (and they were all unnecessary reaches/holds and pretty easy calls) so he had to sit during a very crucial point in the game. He had got stripped by Fisher in a crucial moment in the game. His offense basically disappeared down the stretch (he forced a couple of FUGLY shots). He's such a defensive liability on the court that they decided to put Peja on Kobe at the end of the game etc.

That wasn't a great game for Paul outside of a few minutes at the end of the 2 and beginning of the 3rd.

[Bgil]

I'm pretty sure a 6 foot Paul should NEVER guard 6'6 Kobe...

When the other option is having Peja guard him in chrunch time I say you step up to the challenge. Even D-Wade's gimpy azz tries to D-up Lebron in the 4th. Bobby Jackson (6'1) has taken on the Kobe Bryant challenge numerous times.

[NO-KG-AI]

Well Kobe should have stepped to the plate and guarded Amare in the playoffs I think, what a defensive liability Kobe is......

[G35]

That said, I don't see how you can ignore the fact that Paul's play wasn't very good overall. He played like crap for most of the first half which caused the 30 point lead. He couldn't control his foul situation (and they were all unnecessary reaches/holds and pretty easy calls) so he had to sit during a very crucial point in the game. He had got stripped by Fisher in a crucial moment in the game. His offense basically disappeared down the stretch (he forced a couple of FUGLY shots). He's such a defensive liability on the court that they decided to put Peja on Kobe at the end of the game etc.

That wasn't a great game for Paul outside of a few minutes at the end of the 2 and beginning of the 3rd.

Paul looked bad this game and it wasn't him bringing the Hornets back. Not when he is sitting on the bench in the 4th because of fouls. Not when he is getting a tech at the end of the 3rd. Not when he shot 4-13 for 31% and the rest of the Hornets shot 37-67 for 55%.

I fear Pargo more than Paul because he can create his own shot. Peja who can make a shot when ANYONE passes him the ball. I would make Paul a scorer because he hasn't shown he can consistently make shots over the whole game. Deron dared him to make shots in the last Jazz-Hornets game.

4th quarters are when stars and MVP's are suppose to show up. Especially against the top teams.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playbypla ... 3&period=4

Paul got a technical
Had an assist
Missed a layup
Had an assist
Missed a 2 ft shot
Received his 5th foul came out the game at the 7:31 point with the Hornets down 9
Comes back in at the 4:16 point with the Hornets down 4
Fisher steals the ball from him
Had an assist
Makes 2 FT's

So in a quarter where the Hornets are down 15 points Paul has 3 assists, Misses 2 layups, makes 2 FT's, has a TO and a technical and has to sit out for three and a half minutes.

Pargo had 9 points in the 4th
Peja had 12 points on 4 three pointers in the 4th

Those 2 had 21 of the Hornets 29 points in the 4th and I keep hearing how Paul is the one who has raised his game and everyone else is just doing the same thing they did from last year.

And Bgil posted a link on how well did Hornets fans think they would do this year.

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic.php?t=690406&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=0


NO-KG-AI said 50+ back in July

2poor said 50+ absolutely "health willing"

This comment is funny to read now.

Damn, you guys really seem confident about winning 50 games. Your team is probably the most slept on in the NBA imo.

I wish I had league pass so I could watch some NO games but I don't

New Orleans were slept on probably because they don't get a lot of media coverage but Hornets fans knew they had a good team. They just needed to stay HEALTHY Which is funny in that that's exactly what the Lakers haven't been and they still are a top team and only a half game behind.

Health is the biggest reason for the Hornets turnaround.......

[Bgil]

Well Kobe should have stepped to the plate and guarded Amare in the playoffs I think, what a defensive liability Kobe is......

Expecting a PG to guard a SG isn't the same as expecting a SG to guard a Center. How many other SG's defend centers on a regular basis? None. How many PG's guard shooting guards on a regular basis? Most.

Hell, we've had Kobe on Dirk and KG when the situation warranted it.

[Deuce33]

Damn, Good ass post G35...

[NO-KG-AI]

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Expecting a PG to guard a SG isn't the same as expecting a SG to guard a Center. How many other SG's defend centers on a regular basis? None. How many PG's guard shooting guards on a regular basis? Most.

Hell, we've had Kobe on Dirk and KG when the situation warranted it.

Well there's a 6 inch, and 40+ pound gap between Paul and Bryant.

There's a 2 inch, 20-30 pound gap between Kobe and Amare.

As for G35, me and 2poor are stupid homers, so our opinion on the Hornets didn't matter You win this round

[tkb]

Amare is 6'10" so that would be 4 inches, but I agree you can't fault Paul for not locking up Kobe because of the size mismatch.

It's the same reason I don't fault Kobe for not always locking up LeBron because of obvious size mismatches against Kobe.

[NO-KG-AI]

Well, Amare was 6'8 at the draft camp, and Paul and Kobe's might be exaggerated, but not that much

But yea, you got the point either way

[JordansBulls]

Whomever wins the west between LA and New Orleans will get the MVP in Kobe and Paul.

[Bgil]

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Well there's a 6 inch, and 40+ pound gap between Paul and Bryant.

There's a 2 inch, 20-30 pound gap between Kobe and Amare.

As for G35, me and 2poor are stupid homers, so our opinion on the Hornets didn't matter You win this round

Kobe's 200 and Amare is like 245. Besides, we weren't defending Amare with Peja! Amare also isn't the Suns "go to guy" the way Kobe is for the Lakers. Kobe's had no problem stepping in on Dirk in the past (when he was a bit bigger).
Peja makes Walton look like Josh Howard. Peja might be the worst swingman defender in the entire league.

Amare is 6'10" so that would be 4 inches, but I agree you can't fault Paul for not locking up Kobe because of the size mismatch.

It's the same reason I don't fault Kobe for not always locking up LeBron because of obvious size mismatches against Kobe.

It's not that he needed to lock him down. He didn't even try to guard him. He didn't even double down. If they had a semi-decent defender on Kobe (say Wells or even Mike James) then that would be one thing but not Peja. That's like handing the game away IMO. That's not what team leaders do. At the very least there should have been a, "hey Byron Scott, WTF are you doing?" moment.

If Lebron's big ass can at least attempt to stop Tony Parker then there's not much excuse from a guy people are claiming is first team all defensive. Even Wade tried to stop Lebron.

MAybe D-West should have stepped up too (although he did double team). Even the Lakers color guys commentated on that. In the last 3 minutes Peja sent Kobe to the line 3 times. Paul didn't even guard Fisher well down the stretch.

[SA37]

Some of the arguments in this thread are so absurd

[JDawg]

EVERYONE Read G35's post above.

HE STRAIGHT UP OWNED this thread by PROVING people's claims from earlier this year to NOT be what they had said before.

I find that rather funny.

Bottom line, Kobe outplayed Paul AND the Lakers won.

They got up SO BIG so early and it came back to haunt them as their intensity went down and guys kept chucking 3's to the tune of 10-36.

Hornets are lucky in some ways. Had some of those 3's fallen....say 3 more of them, this would have been a blowout win by 15+ save Pargo's 3 pointer.

But, you wnat to know the REAL reason Kobe is the MVP?

Because he REFUSED to let his team lose. Even after losing the lead, I KNEW Kobe would not let them lose. How many people inspire THAT type of confidence when their team loses a 30 point lead.

Bottom line is Paul played poorly and his team lost.

Im not basing this game off MVP. I just find it funny that so many said it would and NOW THAT KOBE WON are backtracking because of the way he did it.

It doenst matter. He willed his team to the win and thats the bottom line for the haters.

Had the open shooters shots fallen, this game would have ended in a blowout.

Man, im torn.

1) In some ways I want kobe to win MVP just to shove it down all these haters' throats...it'll be so satisfying
BUT
2) On the other hand, for his legacy titles and no MVP is better.

I'm torn......in some ways I just want to STICK it to the haters SO BAD....if Kobe wins MVP....it'll want to make them PUKE.

And for some reason, I want to see that happen. I want to see all the disgusted, angry posts, claiming any number of things by the media after Kobe wins MVP IF he wins MVP.

Most people don't like the haters. I LOVE THEM. I LOVE THEM because there's nothing better than knowing how disgusting, how angry and just how much it would ruin their day in watching Kobe in celebration.

And why do I feel that way??? Because Haters have no reason to hate.....they just think they are Entitled.

So, I'm entitled to enjoy while it irks every inch of their skin when they see the outcome they DIDNT want to see.

[G35]

http://myespn.go.com/blogs/truehoop/0-32-45/The-World-s-Most-Unlikely-MVP-Showdown.html

John Hollinger in a recent chat confirms that by the best review we have of box score statistics -- PER -- Paul is a stronger candidate for MVP than Bryant: "I think Kobe's argument for MVP is pretty weak to be honest. His PER isn't even better than Garnett's, who is supposed to be the non-numbers candidate, and it isn't close to Paul's or James's. If he wins, it's a guilt trip by the writers over the '06 vote."


# By a new measure that assesses rates of assists and buckets, Chris Paul plays a role in nearly 50% of New Orleans' baskets. That's darn near the best rate in NBA history. John Stockton holds the all-time record.


#
# Goursbeck cited one of the many imperfect ways we have of measuring defense. Another is to dig deep into plus/minus numbers, which can always leave you wondering how much of what's happening is attributable to the player. However, on this front, I urge you to consider an amazing email from professor Stephen Ilardi, who has consulted with Roy Williams' staff at Kansas, and is an expert in adusted +/-. He writes: "CP3 is obviously one of the game's top offensive players, his overall defensive performance this season has been poor. How can I be sure? The simplest way is to look at the Hornets' defensive efficiency (opponents' points-per-100-possessions) with Paul on-court versus off-court. With Paul on the court, the Hornets give up 106.37 points every 100 possessions; with him off the court they're much better defensively, giving up only 99.94 points every 100 possessions. It's worth noting that Paul's on-off disparity is the worst of all Hornets players (starters or subs), so it cannot be a mere artifact of his being on the court with other poor defensive players. (By way of comparison, for example, the Hornets are 1.5 points better defensively with David West on the court). As you know, the best measure of a player's overall impact on the game's bottom line is his adjusted plus-minus rating, which adjusts statistically for the effect of all teammates and opponents, and also factors in both offensive and defensive contributions. Paul's adjusted plus-minus rating right now (through games of April 10) is +0.76 points per 100 possessions, indicative of a modest overall positive contribution. Put simply: his superb offensive contributions have been largely offset by his apparent defensive liabilities. Based on this season's adjusted plus-minus numbers, a much stronger MVP case can be made for either Kobe (+12.04) or LeBron (+11.35), and perhaps the best case of all for Dwight Howard (+16.57).

So we have PER vs RealGM's HOR (Hands on Runs) vs defensive efficiency vs adjusted +/-

[semi-sentient]

(picture)

The highest anyone expected was 7, and a few had us finishing behind memphis.

If I had posed a question "what if the Hornets are the top seed in the west", everyone would say, "LOL, not gonna happen, but CP3 would be MVP hands down."

Same if I said Paul would put up these ridiculous numbers on the top team out West.

[NetsForce]

KOBE = -MVP