Hollinger is awful

[BigA]

I guess we'll see in the playoffs if it's flawed or not.

I just took a look at a couple other EC teams to compare the number of 20+ point losses with the Wizards out of curiosity. That might be an arbitrary number, but I thought the results were interesting. I rounded the percentages:

Pistons 23 losses, 1 loss 20+ points = 4% of losses 20+ points

Cavs 36 losses, 4 losses 20+ points = 11% of losses 20+ points

Wizards 38 losses, 9 losses 20+ points = 24% of losses 20+ points

Raptors 40 losses, 5 losses 20+ points = 13% of losses 20+ points

76ers 40 losses, 5 losses 20+ points = 13% of losses 20+ points

Heat 66 losses, 14 losses 20+ points = 21% of losses 20+ points

So the percentage of 20+ point losses seems to go up steadily with the number of losses, except for the Wizards, whose percentage of 20+ point losses is higher than the Heat's.

[Wiz99]

didn't he predict that we'd win 33 games this season? and that chicago would have the best record in nba? at which point do you say - this guy needs to step away from the calculator and watch a game or two?

I just won $200 from a Vegas sports book because the Wizards won their 41st game, when the over/under was 40 before the season. What this means is the Vegas bookies, who make a living knowing these things, believed 50% of Americans believed the Wizards would win less than 41 games (that's how the odds work: they want exactly half of betters to be on each side of it).

So Hollinger had a lot of company thinking the Wizards wouldn't be any good this year.

And quite a few people - both pundits and simple punters like me - thought Chicago had a very good chance to win the Eastern Conference.

Say what you want about him, but Hollinger was in the majority on both those calls. Of course, I knew better and immediately dropped a large amount of coin on Les Wiz winninng more than 40 this year!

[Macker]

Hollinger uses scoring differential, which is generally a better measure of relative team strength than record. Fact is, Toronto has a better scoring differential than the Wiz.

And it uses strength of schedule as well, plus a special look at how a team fares in margin and SOS over its last 25 games. If you look at all of these metrics, we're behind Toronto and Philly.

[WizStorm]

I just won $200 from a Vegas sports book because the Wizards won their 41st game, when the over/under was 40 before the season. What this means is the Vegas bookies, who make a living knowing these things, believed 50% of Americans believed the Wizards would win less than 41 games (that's how the odds work: they want exactly half of betters to be on each side of it).

So Hollinger had a lot of company thinking the Wizards wouldn't be any good this year.

And quite a few people - both pundits and simple punters like me - thought Chicago had a very good chance to win the Eastern Conference.

Say what you want about him, but Hollinger was in the majority on both those calls. Of course, I knew better and immediately dropped a large amount of coin on Les Wiz winninng more than 40 this year!

I'm sorry, but 33 is a long ways away from 40. And he was even counting on a healthy Gil and Caron. Not to mention, isn't Hollinger and his beloved stats supposed to be more accurate than the casual fan that the Vegas odds would be tailored for?

I'd give a pass for missing the boat on Chicago, as he was lock and step with everyone else. It's the Wizards were he and his magical stats really jumped out on a limb and therefore he should be called on it.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Hollinger's Wiz prediction this season should cause him to look closely at his methodology. He clearly needs to do some more work on his player similarity algorithms and projections.

[WizStorm]

Hollinger's biggest problem was his arbitrary assertion that Caron's numbers would decline. He incorrectly assessed that the 2006/2007 season was Caron's "career year" that he would never match again and that his numbers would fall off greatly.

[newslowsad]

TheSecretWeapon, my fellow ODU brother, is really smart.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Hollinger's biggest problem was his arbitrary assertion that Caron's numbers would decline. He incorrectly assessed that the 2006/2007 season was Caron's "career year" that he would never match again and that his numbers would fall off greatly.

Well, it wasn't exactly arbitrary. What Hollinger does is calculate player similarity scores for every player. Then he looks at what that group of "similars" did at the same age and applies it to current players. Conceptually, it's not a bad approach, but there are many, many, many factors that need to be considered, and his projections for the Wizards would suggest that he needs to take another look at the method.

It could be that he has a problem in the similarity scores. The whole "similarity" field is still pretty new for hoops. It's easy to do in baseball (stats are easier period in baseball), but for basketball there are sooooo many factors to weigh and consider. It could also be that there's something fundamental changing with NBA players in terms of conditioning, medical care, training staff, etc. that's helping guys extend primes. There could be some other factors -- maybe he needs to look at career minutes played rather than calendar years.

In one sense, his projections are arbitrary because they do express assumptions that he makes as he builds his projection system. However, it's not like he just sat down and decided, "You know, I think Butler will decline this season." There was a method. The Caron projection, and his projection for the Wiz, suggest he could do some work to improve that method.

[TheSecretWeapon]

newlowsad -- When were you at ODU? What was your major?

[tkunit]

newlowsad -- When were you at ODU? What was your major?

I'd say waste of time.









oh cheap shot at ODU hahaha

[newslowsad]

newlowsad -- When were you at ODU? What was your major?

I was on main campus in 2005 - 2006. I've been finishing my degree (interdisciplinary studies - professional writing) at their Northern Virginia Center since then. I graduate next month.

[TheSecretWeapon]

You're a writer too? Have you published anything? Did you write for the Mace & Crown?

[newslowsad]

You're a writer too? Have you published anything? Did you write for the Mace & Crown?

Nothing really published, unless you want to count a bunch of pieces I wrote for my county's local democratic party as an intern last semester. I write a lot of music critiques that I post on my blog. I never wrote anything for the Mace & Crown while I was on main campus. Hell, I didn't really do anything while I was in Norfolk. I didn't even go to a basketball game, which I really regret. I've been making up for that the last two seasons. Drove down for the Virginia Tech & George Mason games at the Ted this past season and always go see them when they are at the Patriot Center.

[Wiz99]

Well, Hollinger's seen the error of his ways and picked us to beat the Cavs in 6.

http://sports.espn.go.com/nba/playoffs2 ... ies=wascle

[TheSecretWeapon]

-= original quote snipped =-



Nothing really published, unless you want to count a bunch of pieces I wrote for my county's local democratic party as an intern last semester. I write a lot of music critiques that I post on my blog. I never wrote anything for the Mace & Crown while I was on main campus. Hell, I didn't really do anything while I was in Norfolk. I didn't even go to a basketball game, which I really regret. I've been making up for that the last two seasons. Drove down for the Virginia Tech & George Mason games at the Ted this past season and always go see them when they are at the Patriot Center.

Probably the most fun I've had as a writer was as sports editor of the Mace & Crown. I wrote a series of articles about a made-up football team, played pickup basketball with the men's coaching staff (head coach was Oliver Purnell -- Ollie was a terrific pure point. He usually got me on his team because I could shoot. We'd play drive & kick all day. Good fun.) I could get my friends into games on press pass (one friend got into a fight with the mascot from press row). Got to sit courtside. Got to cover an unexpected trip to the NCAA tourney, where I got to meet Bob Ryan, John Feinstein, Curry Kirkpatrick, Jim O'Connell, and a few other writers. Got to meet Frank Deford (and introduce him for a speech he gave).

Only thing close was covering the Wizards when they beat the Bulls in game 6 to advance. I was in the hockey press box waaaaaaaay in the rafters. Jason was so happy the Wiz won he hugged me.

[newslowsad]

I wrote a series of articles about a made-up football team

Fall 2009 says you have excellent foresight. Will be interesting to see how the football team does. Judging from what I've read, the area sounds really pumped about it.

I'm pretty excited about the next 2 - 3 years of the men's basketball program. I really liked what the freshman showed this past season and there are a couple great players coming in this year.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Well, the year I was sports editor, the school was supposed to start a football team. It was going to be in a new division I-AAA, but the NCAA decided not to approve that new division. So, ODU killed the team. I wasn't having it. A conversation with a friend about "what might have been" led to me playing the entire season on some computer game I had, and writing about the games as if they really happened. It was a nice satirical series in which I mocked ODU, college athletics, and just about anything else that came to mind. I'm trying to sell a "where are they now" article to the alumni magazine.