Updated: Final NBA Draft Lottery Odds....

SlideRuleJockey · Post #1 » by **SlideRuleJockey** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 3:51 am

Here are your 2008 NBA Draft Lottery Odds:

The odds in the left column are this years odds, and the right column show what the odds would be if there were no ties. The number to the right of "Combos" is the number of Combinations assigned to each team, while the next number in parenthisis are the number of combinations that would be assigned to this position without any ties.

With the Knicks and Clippers, as well as the Grizzlies and T-Wolves having identical records, you can see how those ties affected not only their odds, but also the odds of the other teams in the Lottery. The ties have been broken by the NBA, with the T-Wolves getting the 3 Spot, Grizzlies the 4 Spot, Knicks the 5 Spot and Clippers the 6 Spot.

Without further ado.............

1. Miami Heat This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 250 (250) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 25.000000% 25.000000%
Pick #2: 21.473580% 21.510116%
Pick #3: 17.721720% 17.773493%
Pick #4: 35.804700% 35.716391%

2. Seatle Sonics This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 199 (199) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 19.900000% 19.900000%
Pick #2: 18.782358% 18.811441%
Pick #3: 17.065638% 17.123480%
Pick #4: 31.862274% 31.857652%
Pick #5: 12.389730% 12.307427%

3. Minnesota T-Wolves This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 138 (156) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 13.800000% 15.600000%
Pick #2: 14.244135% 15.738900%
Pick #3: 14.538395% 15.585738%
Pick #4: 23.824875% 22.571451%
Pick #5: 29.047518% 26.477317%
Pick #6: 4.545077% 4.026594%

4. Memphis Grizzlies This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 137 (119) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 13.700000% 11.900000%
Pick #2: 14.159333% 12.598104%
Pick #3: 14.476846% 13.299643%
Pick #4: 8.508151% 9.854506%
Pick #5: 32.326294% 35.066839%
Pick #6: 15.570531% 16.034351%
Pick #7: 1.258844% 1.246557%

5. New York Knicks This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 76 (88) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 7.600000% 8.800000%
Pick #2: 8.436193% 9.655771%
Pick #3: 9.467324% 10.680537%
Pick #5: 26.236458% 26.148417%
Pick #6: 38.506937% 35.991473%
Pick #7: 9.332367% 8.357478%
Pick #8: 0.420722% 0.366324%

6. Los Angeles Clippers This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 75 (63) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 7.500000% 6.300000%
Pick #2: 8.333966% 7.096963%
Pick #3: 9.365083% 8.116281%
Pick #6: 41.377455% 43.947583%
Pick #7: 29.413408% 30.468137%
Pick #8: 3.906935% 3.967883%
Pick #9: 0.103153% 0.103153%

7. Milwaukee Bucks This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 43 (43) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 4.300000% 4.300000%
Pick #2: 4.933581% 4.939865%
Pick #3: 5.768725% 5.787509%
Pick #7: 59.995381% 59.927828%
Pick #8: 23.181910% 23.221623%
Pick #9: 1.791808% 1.794580%
Pick #10: 0.028595% 0.028595%

8. Charlotte Bobcats This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 28 (28) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 2.800000% 2.800000%
Pick #2: 3.257716% 3.261808%
Pick #3: 3.873697% 3.886176%
Pick #8: 72.490433% 72.444170%
Pick #9: 16.766254% 16.794754%
Pick #10: 0.803889% 0.805081%
Pick #11: 0.008011% 0.008011%

9. Chicago Bulls This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 17 (17) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 1.700000% 1.700000%
Pick #2: 1.997470% 1.999955%
Pick #3: 2.402970% 2.410650%
Pick #9: 81.338786% 81.307514%
Pick #10: 12.180700% 12.201261%
Pick #11: 0.377724% 0.378270%
Pick #12: 0.002350% 0.002350%

10. New Jersey Nets This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 11 (11) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 1.100000% 1.100000%
Pick #2: 1.299270% 1.300877%
Pick #3: 1.572625% 1.577630%
Pick #10: 86.986816% 86.965062%
Pick #11: 8.861874% 8.876761%
Pick #12: 0.178763% 0.179017%
Pick #13: 0.000652% 0.000652%

11. Indiana Pacers This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 8 (8) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 0.800000% 0.800000%
Pick #2: 0.947370% 0.948539%
Pick #3: 1.150135% 1.153788%
Pick #11: 90.752391% 90.736958%
Pick #12: 6.273137% 6.283640%
Pick #13: 0.076839% 0.076947%
Pick #14: 0.000128% 0.000128%

12. Sacramento Kings This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 7 (7) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 0.700000% 0.700000%
Pick #2: 0.829659% 0.830682%
Pick #3: 1.008231% 1.011430%
Pick #12: 93.545750% 93.534993%
Pick #13: 3.894694% 3.901199%
Pick #14: 0.021666% 0.021696%

13. Portland Trail Blazers This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 6 (6) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 0.600000% 0.600000%
Pick #2: 0.711744% 0.712621%
Pick #3: 0.865791% 0.868537%
Pick #13: 96.027815% 96.021202%
Pick #14: 1.794650% 1.797641%

14. Golden State Warriors This Year ("Normal")
Combos: 5 (5) Pick Odds: Pick Odds:
Pick #1: 0.500000% 0.500000%
Pick #2: 0.593626% 0.594356%
Pick #3: 0.722818% 0.725109%
Pick #14: 98.183556% 98.180535%

Sticky?

Fire BK · Post #2 » by **Fire BK** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:08 am

Here's hoping the Knicks end up in the 6th slot, and pick 7th or 8th.

They really don't deserve a sniff at Rose or Beasely.

Jose7 · Post #3 » by **Jose7** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 4:05 pm

Fire BK wrote:Here's hoping the Knicks end up in the 6th slot, and pick 7th or 8th.

They really don't deserve a sniff at Rose or Beasely.

Why do people hate the Knicks for?

Like they are scared we are going to dominate or something. We haven't been good in 7 years, calm down buddy.

================================================

Question, is the 5th and 6th lottery chances going to be decided by a coin flip? How is it decided or do both teams just share percentages?

Post #4 » by **revprodeji** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 6:04 pm

We just do not want to waste talent by sending it to NY.

Please take Bayless.

Post #5 » by **moocow007** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:05 pm

Fire BK wrote:Here's hoping the Knicks end up in the 6th slot, and pick 7th or 8th.

They really don't deserve a sniff at Rose or Beasely.

And that's because? Isiah Thomas harrased someone in your family?

Post #6 » by **moocow007** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:08 pm

[quote="Jose7

Jose7 · Post #7 » by **Jose7** » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:21 pm

moocow007 wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

There's 151 combinations between the 5th and 6th positions (88 for 5th and 63 for 6th). So since NY and LA are tied each team gets 75 combinations. The coin flip then decides who gets the extra one and who really is 5th and 6th in terms of pick order. So the 1/1000th extra combination probably isn't the biggy...it's the who picks ahead of the other that is (assuming neither team ends up with a top 3 pick).

]

ok thanks a lot.

SlideRuleJockey · Post #8 » by **SlideRuleJockey** » Sat Apr 19, 2008 11:35 am

Opening Post updated to reflect the NBA anouncing the broken ties.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves
4. Memphis Grizzlies

And

5. New York Knicks
6. Los Angeles Clippers

Immortal King · Post #9 » by **Immortal King** » Sat Apr 19, 2008 2:58 pm

I don't understand how the Knicks are 5th but have the greatest chance of ending up with the 6th pick.

drj · Post #10 » by **drj** » Sat Apr 19, 2008 4:14 pm

Slide Rule Jockey: great work! thanks for all that!

Immortal King: Most likely outcome for both the Knicks and Griz is (i) not nabbing a 1-3 pick, and also (ii) having exactly one team behind them leapfrogging into a 1-3 slot. That's the type of scenario in which Knicks pick 6 (and Griz 5). Does that make sense?

Immortal King · Post #11 » by **Immortal King** » Sat Apr 19, 2008 5:29 pm

drj wrote:Slide Rule Jockey: great work! thanks for all that!

Immortal King: Most likely outcome for both the Knicks and Griz is (i) not nabbing a 1-3 pick, and also (ii) having exactly one team behind them leapfrogging into a 1-3 slot. That's the type of scenario in which Knicks pick 6 (and Griz 5). Does that make sense?

yes, it does now. Thanks for explaining!

SlideRuleJockey · Post #12 » by **SlideRuleJockey** » Tue May 20, 2008 12:31 am