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Do you think we will be better or worse next year?

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billfromBoston
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Post#41 » by billfromBoston » Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:19 pm

Barry Lird wrote:
GuyClinch wrote:
So are a few years of championship-level teams followed by another fallow period worth it to everyone here?

For me, yes.


It's usually like this though. It's hard to sustain championship dominance. Personally I don't think its really possible to build a team that can have say a 10 year run of championship quality basketball anymore.

I think it's smarter to pick your spots..

I truly think had we stuck with our previous "path" we would mired in mediocrity for the next 10 years.. (and I realize that Danny might say that was never a real path)...

Pete

It's definitely hard, but it can be done, and even then, 8 years is probably as long a run as can be expected (and even that is an incredibly long run of sustained excellence and championship caliber ball). Obviously, for a long run like that, you need to get a hall of fame type player very early on in his career (and more likely, two of them), so they can have a chance at that sustained run. Celts did it in the 80s, Bulls in the 90s, and Spurs in the late 90s, 2000s. So it takes the hall of famers, and a really great GM to surround them with the right pieces.

As to Danny's previous path, I've seen this mistake of thinking that Danny was going to go with youth in perpetuity a million times. It was always about accruing assets. I ALWAYS thought he would cash in when he thought the time was right. Personally, I think that this line of reasoning is a way for those who used to trash Danny to try and claim that it is they that were right all along, and Danny belatedly came to his senses and went veteran. The truth is, he HAD to first accrue the assets before making his big splash. Any sooner and the return would have been the likes of EWill and Delk.

He did a great job of gathering assets that he could trade away. There was luck involved to be sure. You need a willing dance partner at the time you're ready to dance, but without the proper preparation, none of it would have been possible.

All that said, I really think our window is this year, next, and at the very furthest out, 2 years from now. Enjoy it while it lasts, fellas.

So, for the championship run, you need the hall of famers, while they're still playing hall of fame ball. It's really hard to get those hall of famers. You either luck into them in the draft, or you trade for them. We've got ours, but our run will be short. Worth it though, in my view.

There's no one way to build a championship team. We did it by drafting Bird and McHale and getting Parish in the 80's for our long run, and we did it by trading this time for our presumed short run.

I don't think we'd have been mired in mediocrity had we had luck in the lottery last year (Oden/Durant). Our window just would have started two years later (and Pierce probably would have been traded), but it would have been longer, probably, but we'll never know.


...it would only take a brief look through Boston.com's archives to know that was Ainge's plan all along...he stated it numerous times since season one...fans are fans, they have their own ideas, often little perspective, and extremely short-term memories...

..have no idea how you can acknowledge Ainge's plan in one breath and then think the team can only contend for 3 years the next...Rondo will be an All Star no later than 3 years from now and all 3 of GPA will be no worse than 6/7/8 rotation players 3 years from now and can be re-signed for the cash equivalent of their value...

...Title contention will be legit as long as KG is manning the PF spot...his impact goes beyond scoring and I see no reason why he won't be playing at a high level deep into his 30's...another 7-8 seasons with KG (age 38) wouldn't surprise me one bit...

..but regardless of GPA's level of play, the Celtics will be in position to hit the FA market HARD 3 seasons from now...the team will have an in-their-prime core of Perkins/Powe/Pruitt/Rondo...Rondo will be the main star and KG/PP/RA should all be the best supporting cast players any team in the NBA has-PP and KG could easily still be starting and putting in 16-18 a night...

...with cap money free, a winning recent history behind them, and the prestige of having 3 HoFers and and up-and-coming star in Rondo, how hard is it going to be for the Celtics to sign another young star to complement Rondo and boost a battle-tested mix of veterans back into title contention?

I think the CURRENT roster has a 3-4 year title shelf life, but the FLEXIBILITY that Ainge has created in the cap and the newly raised level of attraction this team has for potential FA's extends that window another 3-4 years...
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Post#42 » by armageddon » Wed Apr 16, 2008 6:58 pm

The key to the future is (and this was DA's doing)............

RA's contract expires in 09/10 - $18.78 million
PP's contract expires in 10/11 - $21.51 million
KG's contract expires in 11/12 - $21.2 million

So, at least 1 more years of the "3" then start trading expiring contracts, or 2 more years of the "3" then enjoy large amounts of cap space.

Meanwhile we will still attract quality FA's and DA will still draft useable or tradeable young players. I cannot see an end to our present situation.
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Post#43 » by Kefa461 » Wed Apr 16, 2008 7:16 pm

Better... 8) wow this year a possible 66-16 :o 8)
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Post#44 » by Barry Lird » Wed Apr 16, 2008 8:11 pm

billfromBoston wrote:..it would only take a brief look through Boston.com's archives to know that was Ainge's plan all along...he stated it numerous times since season one...fans are fans, they have their own ideas, often little perspective, and extremely short-term memories...


Ainge's plan was flexible. He was about acquiring assets. Had we gotten Oden or Durant, we'd have gone that direction.

..have no idea how you can acknowledge Ainge's plan in one breath and then think the team can only contend for 3 years the next...Rondo will be an All Star no later than 3 years from now and all 3 of GPA will be no worse than 6/7/8 rotation players 3 years from now and can be re-signed for the cash equivalent of their value...


I love Rondo and hope he ends up an all-star, but we are contenders now because of Hall of Famers. They are in their 30s, and though you'd obviously like to believe otherwise, their production will lessen each year now. This is not a slam. It's reality, and happens to everyone.

We will not be contenders with GPA as 6/7/8 rotation players 5 years down the road unless their former hall of fame play can be replaced. It's that simple.

Maybe KG will still be an all-star in 3 years, though highly likely not playing at his present level. Pierce and Allen... doubtful.

..but regardless of GPA's level of play, the Celtics will be in position to hit the FA market HARD 3 seasons from now...the team will have an in-their-prime core of Perkins/Powe/Pruitt/Rondo...Rondo will be the main star and KG/PP/RA should all be the best supporting cast players any team in the NBA has-PP and KG could easily still be starting and putting in 16-18 a night...


Lots of teams have free agent money and can't attract great players, or overpay for mediocre ones. The reason that the Houses, Poseys, Cassells of the world want to come here now is because our big 3 are still all-stars. Perkins/Powe/Pruitt/Rondo in their prime will probably elicit fear in no one. Nice complimentary pieces (excepting that Rondo can be better), but not the lures that attract free agents.

No, we'll need stars if our present big 3 fall off to 6th, 7th, 8th men caliber, and Perkins, Powe, and Pruitt aren't going to morph into hall of famers.

Ray makes big money for 2 more years after this, Pierce for 3, and Garnett for 4.

So, 2 years down the road we'll still have 2 maxed out contracts, so even if Ray resigns on the cheap, it's hard to see how we'll have cap space that year. After that, who knows?

The larger point is that true contention depends on having hall of fame players still playing at a hall of fame level, and I see our window for that as around another 2 years after this one.

I don't think playing here with PGA will be near the draw 3 years from now that you apparently do.
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Post#45 » by billfromBoston » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:29 am

[quote="Barry Lird"][/quote]


...I couldn't agree with you less Barry...

No other team in the NBA has 3 first option HoFers, so the premise that this team needs 3 HoFers to contend is faulty...you need 2-3 bonafide stars to content for a title, not necessarily HoFers...

Secondly, I am fully aware that GPA's production will lessen in time, but to what degree? I don't think there's a chance in hell that they are the first 3 options offensively in 3 seasons, but that was the point of discussing what their roles would be relative to what the team would need to acquire.

I Think the Frontcourt is locked down with Perkins/KG/Powe for the next 5-8 seasons as those 3 can give defense and rebounding at a high level....the HoF caliber talent you refer to in your rebuttal is exactly the talent I believe has the ability to remain solid contributors well past 34 years of age...if recent history has shown us anything its that dedicated, HoF caliber talent tends to age very well and remain key contributors to their teams well past their prime...

Third, of course a core of Perk/Powe/TA/Pruitt/Rondo isn't going to "scare" anyone, that wasn't the point...the point was that those players make for an excellent supporting cast and will have been deep into the playoffs multiple times 3-4 years down the line...one player looks like a sure-fire All Star in Rondo, so their is already a focal point in place to transition from GPA...those other role players are solid defenders who can rebound and score the ball-a great core to add another star to when you consider the possability of STILL having GPA as part of your rotation...

Finally, the key to it all, ADDING ANOTHER STAR who is in or approaching his prime....to contend beyond year 3 of GPA, Boston is going to have to find a star player to pair with Rondo...you talk about how difficult this will be because of:

A. Salary Cap

B. Interest in the team

First off, if you even did a rudementary look at the cap situaiton for RA and PP's walk years you'd see that managing the current roster with an eye toward free agency is pretty simply done...assumming you like the current team Boston has, its extremely easy to see the Celtics keeping the current squad together with very cost-effective, short-term deals...

The only player who is going to get big money is Rajon Rondo. Posey, House, Cassell, Tony Allen, Leon Powe-these are all 3 millon or less players and amongst them only Powe and Allen even have a remote chance of being signed for more than 3 years...so the Celtics are only looking, at worst, adding about 10 million in salary to their currently projected 2010/2011 cap figure by re-signing their current personnel.

If Boston elects to keep Ray Allen and he gets, say, 6 million a year to stay; that will put Boston at 17 million added to the projected 10/11 cap figure....that still leaves a projected 10 million in cap space available...now, filling out the rest of the roster will cost money, so we'll assume that 5-7 million is taken up in more deals for low money support vets for the sake or argument...Perk/Powe/TA/Pruitt/Rondo/08 draftpick-that's 5 roster spots already filled, plus GPA, which makes it an 8 man rotation...add one Posey-esque signing at 3.5 to round out a 9 man rotation and you've got another 7 million to get the House's, Pollards, and Brown's of the world...

Now, the NEXT off-season Pierce's 21 MILLION comes off the books...Boston has now maintained its core group and stayed right at the projected cap number...if the team re-ups Pierce for a similar 6 million they are going to be looking at 12-14 million in cap space during the 11/12 off season...

..if the team has been winning 55-60 games every year, contends for a title annually, and has the charisma of the 3 HoFers going for it, why in God's name will they not be a favored destination for young players looking to get into a better situation?
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Post#46 » by cisco » Thu Apr 17, 2008 7:49 pm

GuyClinch wrote:
Pete, you're right about the Lakers, but I still don't get how they are so good. Kobe is amazing, of course, and Gasol is evry good (although he plays no D), but Bynum is overrated so far and Odom is either incredible one night or high as a kite and out of it the next. It makes me scratch my head, but there they are.


It's alot like our team.. They not only have big stars in Odom, Kobe and Gasol. You think Odom is on/off - you could say the same thing about our third star Ray Allen who doesn't always put up eye popping numbers.

The Lakers are more like us then any other team in the NBA. Granted it's not a perfect matchup...but they have a ton of similiarities. Guys like Walton, Farmar, Bynum, Turiaf, Fisher - guys that your dismissing have proved to be an excellent supporting cast..

It's just like how commentators are too quick to dismiss Perkins, Powe, Rondo, Tony Allen, Posey and Eddie House..

Still for the Lakers it all starts with Kobe (love or hate him) the C's are a bit different in that Garnett and Pierce kinda share top billing..

Pete


Except the Lakers are not as good defensively as the Celtics.
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Post#47 » by Bleeding Green » Thu Apr 17, 2008 8:21 pm

And the Celtics not as good offensively as the Lakers.
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Post#48 » by bru87tr » Fri Apr 18, 2008 12:18 pm

I think it depends on how we do in the playoffs. if we do good or win it all, we get better. if we are out earlier than expected, I think they dont win as many games this year.

I predicted at start of the season they would win 68 games. IMO they should have, but I was close.

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