David Dupree article: the dark-horse Wizards

[dorianwrite]

Well, the cat's out of the bag:

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/w ... index.html

Mods: If this has already been posted in another thread and I missed it, please feel free to delete this. But it made me happy, so I wanted to share it.

[fishercob]

Lenny Kravitz once sang, "If you want it, you've to to believe."

It's time to believe, Wizards fans! Get on the dlts20-doclinkin express and see the possibility that DuPree sees. We as fans can will our team to great things with our energy.

Be positive. Make the VC a downright hostile place for our opponents. Expect good things to happen.

Go Wiz.

[newslowsad]

Get on the dlts20-doclinkin express

I used to post on the ESPN board (before I knew about the greatness of RealGM) and dlts20 was ridiculous.

[Soup's Uncle]

Nice...

[TheKingOfVa360]

I use to post on the ESPN boards too, DLTS was too funny

[LyricalRico]

Finally some love for Haywood!

[hands11]

CB is the heart of the TEAM

Butler has battled hip wrist and knee ailments much of the season, but he is the heart of the team, a fearless competitor at both ends who can hurt opponents in so many areas. He set career highs in scoring (20.3), shooting percentage (46.6) and assists (4.9).


He's been reading my posts again

Oh and he left out his steals.

[NbdyBeatsTheWiz]

He didn't just mention us either, he gave a nice long laundry list of reasons. I'll drink that koolaid!

good ol' Marty Burns mentions us when he says we'll win in 6
http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/marty_burns/04/17/east.breakdown/index.html

[jmrosenth]

wow...it doesn't get more blatantly homer than that. Did he really just compare us to the 1995 Rockets team?

[Kanyewest]

[Kanyewest]

-= original quote snipped =-



Sigh. More bad stats.

Yeah, defensive FG% did improve. Unfortunately, FG% is a waste of time because it does not account for the fact that 3 is more than 2.

Last season, Wiz opponents had an Effective field goal percentage of .517. This season, it was .513. This season, the Wiz allowed opponents 683 made 3s -- 85 more than last season.

Yeah, Wiz opponents did score fewer points. There's a reason for that -- pace. Last year, the Wiz ran at 94.1 possessions per 48 minutes -- 5th fastest in the league. This year, the Wiz walked at 89.5 possessions per 48 minutes -- 4th SLOWEST in the league.

Even if they'd played exactly the same defense (allowing 110.6 points per 100 possessions) they'd have gone from allowing 104.9 points per game to 99.7. That's just by slowing things down. The extra half point per game (Wiz allowed 99.2 ppg this season) is the actual improvement in their defense.

There are reasons to think the Wiz have a chance to go deep into the playoffs. But "improved defense" ain't one of them.

Interesting stuff.

No stats are all telling. For instance eFG% does not take into account free throws. Nor does it (or any shooting percentage measurement for that matter) show how many second chance opportunities or fast break points this team has allowed.

I also would like to know the distribution of data for points allowed. For instance, I suspect that the Wizards have held their opponents under 90 points more this season than in seasons past. Since the Wizards allow a lot of 3 pointers, the standard deviation or the spread of values of points allowed is probably larger than in years past.

The slow down in pace could also illustrate that the Wizards are making teams work for their offensive looks. Teams are becoming judicious working against the Wizards defense. I also think because the Wizards are packing in the paint, they are allowing less second chance opportunities.

[Chocolate City Jordanaire]

The Wizards perimeter defense absolutely sucks.

I don't feel they'll go any farther than hot shooting will take them.

[Wiz99]

Wow, DuPree makes a compelling case.

I like the role of darkhorse.

[ZonkertheBrainless]

[quote="TheSecretWeapon"][/quote]

Yeah, that's what I was thinking when I read that... "Didn't the zards just set a record for most threes made by opponents?"

[LyricalRico]

The Wizards perimeter defense absolutely sucks.

I don't feel they'll go any farther than hot shooting will take them.

As long as their shooting is hot enough to get them past Cleveland I'll be satisfied, although I do like our chances against Boston.

[TheSecretWeapon]

Interesting stuff.

No stats are all telling. For instance eFG% does not take into account free throws. Nor does it (or any shooting percentage measurement for that matter) show how many second chance opportunities or fast break points this team has allowed.

eFG is not designed to look at those things. There's a perfectly good stat for free throws -- it's called "free throw percentage." If you want to look at all shots in a single measure, there's a stat called "true shooting percentage."

eFG tells quite a bit -- the team with the better efg wins about 80% of the time in the NBA.

There are stats called "second chance points" and "fast break points". The NBA tabulates (but does not publish) them. The various play-by-play parsing sites can provide that info. As for analytical value -- these other stats can be useful, but I'd need a fuller explanation for why you're mentioning them when the points being made were about field goal shooting.

As for "telling stats" -- there are many. Two of the best ones are offensive and defensive rating (points scored (and allowed) per 100 possessions). These stats measures for the four key factors that decide who wins and loses -- field goal shooting (efg), ball handling (turnovers), rebounding (rebounding percentage), and free throws (ft/fga).

I also would like to know the distribution of data for points allowed. For instance, I suspect that the Wizards have held their opponents under 90 points more this season than in seasons past. Since the Wizards allow a lot of 3 pointers, the standard deviation or the spread of values of points allowed is probably larger than in years past.

Wiz have "held" opponents under 90 20 times this season vs. 4 last season. The average pace in sub-90 games -- 87 this season and 88 last season.

The better measure is defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions). This sorta suggests some improvement. This season, the Wiz held opponents below 100 pts per 100 possessions 18 times -- last year, it was 8.

However, this season the Wiz allowed more than 115 pts per 100 possessions 25 -- last season, it was 26.

The slow down in pace could also illustrate that the Wizards are making teams work for their offensive looks. Teams are becoming judicious working against the Wizards defense. I also think because the Wizards are packing in the paint, they are allowing less second chance opportunities.

That's a good theory, but the numbers don't support it. Here's the breakdown of FGA by time remaining on the shot clock (from 82games):

Code: Select all

CLOCK   2006-07 2007-08
0-10    37%     37%
11-15   26%     25%
16-20   24%     24%
21+     13%     14%


The slowdown this season happened on the offensive end:

Code: Select all

CLOCK   2006-07 2007-08
0-10    41%     34%
11-15   25%     23%
16-20   22%     27%
21+     12%     16%


[closg00]

Wizards have the dubious stat of allowing the most 3's in the NBA. This was mentioned on ESPN.

[Kanyewest]

I was curious more about 2nd chance points/opportunities for the opposing team because a defense generally thrives on limiting the opponent to one shot. So in theory, a team can have a slightly lower eFG%, but could be just as bad if not worse defensively.

This could probably measured more accurately by how well the Wizards control the defensive boards. While Arenas did not play much of this year and is a solid rebounder for a guard, I wonder if the Wizards picked up the slack given Haywood and Blatche increased minutes as opposed to the like of Hayes and Ruffin.

I have a good idea of TS% but not so much rebounding percentages. Also, how is a possession calculated?

I'm also a bit confused on your date of the slowdown of the Wizards offense. According to your data, the Wizards are more likely to take a shot early in the shot clock in 2007-08 compared to 2006-07.

[TheSecretWeapon]

I was curious more about 2nd chance points/opportunities for the opposing team because a defense generally thrives on limiting the opponent to one shot. So in theory, a team can have a slightly lower eFG%, but could be just as bad if not worse defensively.

Defensive rebounding is important, but not nearly as important as making the other team miss. The four factors I mentioned in my last post are not of equal value. In general it breaks down something like this:

efg: 10
tov: 5
rebounding: 4
free throws: 1-2

All of that meaning the differential in each category. Making the other guy miss shots is the key to good defense. Everything else is secondary.

This could probably measured more accurately by how well the Wizards control the defensive boards. While Arenas did not play much of this year and is a solid rebounder for a guard, I wonder if the Wizards picked up the slack given Haywood and Blatche increased minutes as opposed to the like of Hayes and Ruffin.

This season, the Wiz had a defensive rebounding percentage of 70% -- last season it was 68%. A little bit better.

I have a good idea of TS% but not so much rebounding percentages. Also, how is a possession calculated?

Latest formula -- .976 x (FGA + .44 x FTA - offensive rebounds + turnovers). There are other formulations out there, but this one did best in a recent paper by a few stat goobers.

I'm also a bit confused on your date of the slowdown of the Wizards offense. According to your data, the Wizards are more likely to take a shot early in the shot clock in 2007-08 compared to 2006-07.

The data shows just the opposite. The shot-clock info is seconds elapsed. In 2006-07, 41% of the Wizards FGA came in the first 10 seconds of the shot clock. This season it was 34%.

[Kanyewest]

Cool, thanks for the explanation.