Draft, Deal & Develope

[Celts17Pride]

BillfromBoston,

So you agree with LongTimeFan that the Celtics could easily get a lottery pick for Powe and the 30th pick?

That's what this discussion is about.

[floyd]

I really like Powe, but I wouldn't get too excited about the performance of any player in April when there's not a ton at stake in a lot of these games.
Do we really see him becoming Carlos Boozer or just a great garbage man?

[Pogue Mahone]

If Powe keeps playing this way the list of our best players goes like this

1.KG
2.Pierce
3. Powe
4. Rondo
5. Ray

Thats how well Powe is playing. He has clearly been the third best player for the last two months. Now maybe it will turn out to be a fluke, but if it is, its a hell of a fluke.

I would put it as

1. KG 180 TEN+ $22.091M Fair Salary
2. Pierce 157 TEN+ $17.506M Fair Salary
3. Rondo 148 TEN+ $13.024M Fair Salary
4. Powe 110 TEN+ $5.861M Fair Salary*
5. Perk 107 TEN+ $5.222M Fair Salary
6. Ray 111 TEN+ $7.238M Fair Salary**
7. Posey 99 TEN+ $4.243M Fair Salary

*Entire season calculations. See below for numbers since Powe has received regular playing time.

**Shooting guard is the easiest position to fill and get a starting level player. On the balance, it may seem Ray is much better but what you are seeing is a fairly efficient player benefiting from lots of possessions, being the designated technical foul shooter, etc. Ray is good but his game is pretty empty outside of scoring (especially when you consider how frequently he is involved offensively.)

Consider that since 29 Jan 08 (when Powe started to get regular burn), he has put up the following:

.617 TS% .568 eFG% .738 FT% 16.51 RbR 13.45 ORbR 19.22 DRbR
8.36 ToR 19.91 Usg-R 52 FT/FGA 117 TEN+ $6.289 Fair Salary

What that means in layman's terms:

Since the Miami game on 29 Jan 08, Leon Powe, per 36 minutes, has been putting up 19.94 points and 9.97 rebounds. He has done it without turning the ball over (1.54 TOs), getting to the line and making them at roughly 52 free throws made per 100 field goal attempts and has been playing very solid defense.

To put it in perspective, in the same offense, KG puts up 20.55 and 10.16 per 36. I am in no way saying they are comparable players. I am only stating that, per his time on the floor, Powe has been e-x-t-r-e-m-e-l-y productive.

The Paper Tiger in Orlando puts up 19.8 and 13.5 in a faster paced Orlando offense (ie more opportunity to collect rebounds and score points.) He also has a higher usage rate. And, yes, Howard gets to the line an incredible percentage of the time (some, myself included, feel it's laughable how frequently he gets to the line without really having to work for it -- but that is neither here nor there.) Powe has about 2 less FT makes per 100 FGAs than Dwight Howard, The Paper Tiger, League Golden Child, Marketing Ploy and Frequent Charity Stripe Visitor.

Last year in Boston, The Jefferson put up 17.2 and 11.7 per 36 minutes. Boston also played at a faster tempo in 2007. And I feel the same way about Powe as I did about The Jefferson; 20-25 minute bench scorer/rebounder until he rounds out his game completely. The difference between the two, imo, is that Powe actually gets to the free throw line and makes them. And, like The Jefferson earlier in his career, Powe has shown that he maintains his astounding productivity despite a jump in minutes.

If Leon Powe is a scrub that many think he is, how is it that he is hanging with the league stars in productivity?

[lastgh0st]

I doubt any trades happen until Ray, Paul, then KG become expirings (unless they are small). Powe seems to me to be a perfect candidate to be paired with Ray to try to pull in a younger star(28-30 probably).

Now if he starts getting his >20 min numbers regularly next season why on earth would we trade him? Boozer and West are great examples of 'undersized' guys who took 3~ years to fully mature. I can't see a senario where they trade him this offseason. Imagine if he develops that jump shot

[Rocky5000]

Leon, sorta baffles me. It's like Cousy said last night, when you look at him and the way he moves on the offensive end with the ball, it doesn't seem like he's going to be that good. But he has what a lot of players lack, and that's heart and determination. Put Leon Powe in Mark Blount's body and he'd probably be a ten-time all star. What he does on the floor isn't complicated at all. Get rebounds, hang around the hoop, set picks and roll towards the basket, and either try to dunk the ball or draw contact. He's worked so hard on his body, that there is probably only a handful of players in the league that can hold him down so this type of a game is effective for him. As far as pure offensive basketball skillset goes, Leon's behind Big Baby, but probably ahead of Perkins. He doesn't pass the ball at all(I think someone said he's last in the league in Assist/m) and watching him try to lead the break is a disaster.

[Pogue Mahone]

Let's face it a guy like Powe is a dime a dozen.

Are you sure about that? Let's double-check to be sure.

Under the following criteria:

6'5-6'8; Points per 36 >= 19; Rebounds per 36 >= 9; Total Minutes Played > 500 MP

Years observed: 1980-Current

Number of individual seasons: 28
Number of players accomplishing feat: 13
Players accomplishing feat: Charles Barkley (11 times), Clark Kellogg (4), Elton Brand (3), Jay Vincent (1), Dan Roundfield (1), Antawn Jamison (1), Antoine Walker (1), Larry Johnson (1), Shawn Marion (1), Alex English (1), Cedric Ceballos (1), Gary Trent (1) and Leon Powe (1)

Undersized PFs who can score and rebound at the levels that Powe does are not a dime a dozen. Sorry.

Yes he is performing at a very high level but teams can find a guy like him in the 2nd round of the draft. Look at guys like Landry, Millsap, Craig Smith, Brandon Bass, Turiaf, are own Glen Davis etc. all 2nd round picks.

Per 36

Carl Landry 17.3 and 10.5
Paul Millsap 14.0 and 9.7
Craig Smith 16.9 and 8.2
Brandon Bass 15.1 and 8.0
Ronny Turiaf 12.7 and 7.6
Glen Davis 12.0 and 8.0
Leon Powe 19.8 and 10.1

Now consider that Powe is at the top of this list in offensive efficiency, as well. Again, players like Powe aren't a dime a dozen.

[elrod enchilada]

Thank you Pogue and BfB for making the case for Leon. The numbers are extraordinary.

What is absurd, though, is that we all watch the games. It does not require a slide rule to see that Powe is the real deal. It is an absolute pleasure to watch Leon inflict his damage on the opponent night after night. I thank my lucky stars he is on the Cs. If he played for another team he would drive me nuts. Danny Ainge will not let him play for any team other than the Cs for a very long time. Period.

At the beginning of the season I suggested that Big Baby could drop 25 pounds, work on his handle and his shot and possibly play minutes at the 3. I was effectively blindfolded and placed before a cyper-firing squad for my suggestion.

I still think it could work. He has wonderful feet. Not all match-ups, and not exclusively, but a thinner Big Baby could play the 3. It might be the best way for him to get minutes on the Cs going forward.

[Jammer]

Teams have to get thru 82 games, with Legs, plus pre-season, and playoffs.

It's a long season.

Although I prefer 7 to 8 man playoff rotations, the Celtics don't have the talent to do what 1968 and 1969 Celtics, 1971 Bucks, 1967 '76'ers, or the 1997 and 1998 Bulls did.

The Celtics are more of a starter-backup-insurance player rotation for each position, with minor overlap.

Powe won't be going anywhere, because he doesn't complain, he does his assignments, and whether a backup, insurance guy or occasional starter this season his attitude was the same.

I just don't see the Celtics getting equal value for Powe or Tony Allen. They are long term keepers.

I think we should table trade talk until after the playoffs are over, because I think that it will jinx things.

Since I don't forsee much in the way of trades, , though, I think the only guys who might be offered up are various combinations of:

2008 #30 Pick
$3 Million Cash
Gabe Pruitt
Glen Davis
Brian Scalabrine

That's the only players I could see being in any deals.

Combo's like:

#30 pick + $3 Million + Glen Davis to move up to # ?

Gabe Pruitt + $3 Million for # ? or
maybe even the Wolves Top Ten Protected Pick owed to Clippers?

Scal + #60 Pick to Team with Cap Space to just absorb him

That's about the size of the trades I can imagine Danny trying to pull off.

Now, watch him surprise everybody.

[Al n' Perk No Layups!]

maybe even the Wolves Top Ten Protected Pick owed to Clippers?

We traded the Wolves their pick back in the KG deal.

[GregB]

I would love to be able to sign Powe to a Perk like extension. Then use Baby as a piece to move up in the draft and or Scalabrines salary.

I would be very happy to find another 7 footer to compliment Perk and Powe. Someone who is a good weakside shot blocker and hit some jumpshots. I understand that is pretty difficult at the end of the first. I havent really covered the draft at all this year. Wondering if any of our draft gurus might know of any players that might fit that mold??

But If their is only a bunch of stiffs. I would be ok with a wing. You have to go with value and I would love to get a guy like Bill Walker at the end of the first.

[Jammer]

-= original quote snipped =-



We traded the Wolves their pick back in the KG deal.

The Wolves still owe a First Round Pick (Top Ten Protected)

to the Clippers

for Marko Jaric.

That's the pick that I'm referring to.

It's available because Donald Sterling asked teams to submit their best offers for it.

Apparently Sterling:

1. Doesn't want to wait 2, 3 or 4 years for the pick to be delivered.
2. Would like to invest $3 Million in June.
3. Figures that with the injury to Shaun Livingston making him a complete ?, plus Elton Brand still has to show what he has left, and Sam Cassell is no longer there, that any help that they can get now can only help them get thru next season.

[billfromBoston]

[quote="Pogue Mahone"][/quote]

...nothing Pogue? Fantastic analysis...let me know if you have a change of heart...

[Fencer reregistered]

Is it relevant that Leon has been getting these great numbers in no small part vs. backups?

[Pogue Mahone]

Is it relevant that Leon has been getting these great numbers in no small part vs. backups?

I think this is a great question.

Leon Powe, on average, faces 51.56% of opposing teams starters when he is in the game. Or, roughly 2.58 starters.

A hypothetical league average player will face 66.90% or 3.35.

At one extreme, you got Kendrick Perkins. Though he started seeing time against more and more backups later in the season, for much of the year the rotation was such that he started and played most of the first, cameo'd in the 2nd, started the 3rd and sat much of the fourth. Because of the way his minutes were distributed, Perkins saw, on average, 4.04 opposing starters (80.87%) per his time on the floor. To put that in perspective, save for Chris Webber who only played in 9 games with 8 starts and 126 MP, Perkins was second in the league to only Morris Peterson in the average number of starters faced (81.47/4.07.)

What does that mean exactly?

I did a study a while back where I attempted to tackle the problem of bench vs starters. Without getting too in-depth, the average player will see the following increases against Joe Dink, average bench player:

11.4% more Free Throw Attempts
2.7% more Rebounds
3.3% more Steals
12.9% more Blocks
16.0% more Personal Fouls
0.7% more Points Scored
0.6% increase to True Shooting Percentage

Now, with that being said, players also lose against bench players, as well. On average, it reflects like this:

-1.1% less Field Goal Attempts
-9.4% less Assists
-0.4% less Turnovers

Worse case scenario, imo, Leon Powe's performance this season reflected a true performance of 16.74 points and 8.51 rebounds, both per 36, after adjusting for strength of competition under a pace factor of 90.9 possessions per game.

Best case scenario, imo, is that Leon Powe's performance this season as a starter, 19.51 points and 9.34 rebounds, both per 36 with 90.9 pace factor, with an average of 3.99 starters faced (79.73%) is somewhat devaluing his true value. IOW, his numbers as a starter are somewhat discounted because he didn't have the opportunity to 'pad' stats against back-ups in the games he did start.

How much? It's an extremely small sample size and he shot extremely well in those games from the free throw line. Control his FT% to his season's average, adjust for strength of competition and, assuming those starts are an actual indication of true ability, he put up a per 36 line of 21.05 points and 10.57 rebounds.

I think that is a bit generous and Powe's "true" ability in this offense is likely in the range of 19.25 points and 9.65 rebounds, per 36 minutes played.

[LongTimeFan]

Talk of tradin Powe is passing time. No true fan wants to see him leave. However, it's a business and he may want to / need to be out West close to his family. DA will repect that.

You guys underestimate him. It' his reach that allows him to play as big as he does. Those arms are just ultra long. And powerful. He has the same reach as Big Al.

And the hands. Do you see the passes and rebounds he pulls down?

Against other PF's he dominates.

http://www.82games.com/0708/07BOS10C.HTM

His PER differential is a +11.3. I'd say he's legitimate starting PF. I think you can get quite a bit for a proven, starting PF. Many GMs suck at drafting and they know it. They also tend to have good picks.

[BillessuR6]

ESPN should fire Hollinger and hire you Pogue. But you are probably too good for them anyway. Great analysis.

[John Locke]

Pouge...I'm shaking my head. These are great analysis. This is some of the best stuff I've seen. Please do continue.

[Pogue Mahone]

Great analysis.

Thanks.

For future reference, a while back I made a quick and dirty, back of the envelope equation to figure approximate strength of opposition. I call it "Starters Faced" and it closely mirrors the results from actual play-by-play data (not perfect but pretty close.)

Essentially, if you take a hypothetical 25 MPG player, this is how his units opposing line-ups will shake out:

Games | Starts | MPG | Avg Starters Faced
82 | 82 | 25 | 4.03
82 | 41 | 25 | 3.35
82 | 00 | 25 | 2.67

Here is how it shakes out for our entire roster:

Player | Games | Starts | MP | Avg Starters Faced

R Allen | 73 | 73 | 2624 | 3.66
T Allen | 75 | 11 | 1373 | 2.76
Brown- | 18 | -- | -209 | 2.33
Cassell | 17 | -1 | -299 | 2.59
G Davis | 69 | -1 | -940 | 2.41
Garnett | 71 | 71 | 2328 | 3.76
House- | 78 | -2 | 1480 | 2.56
Perkins | 78 | 78 | 1912 | 4.04
Pierce- | 80 | 80 | 2874 | 3.66
Pollard | 22 | -- | -173 | 2.23
Posey- | 74 | -2 | 1821 | 2.70
L Powe | 56 | -5 | -809 | 2.58
Pruitt- | 15 | -- | --95 | 2.19
Rondo | 77 | 77 | 2306 | 3.86
Scala- | 48 | -9 | -512 | 2.72

[GuyClinch]

We had a Powe vs. BBD in the offseason and one thing that was mentioned by Powe supporters was that he gets to the line a ton. What has really impressed me is that he has started finishing on these plays more often as well.

For example last year Powe's eFG% was only .446. This was frequently pointed out by the "Powe has no offensive ability" crowd.. But he had a drawn foul percentage of an amazing 28.3%.

This year his eFG% has risen to a collosal .575! But his drawn foul percentage has slipped a bit to 26.6. And this reflects EXACTLY what we see on the court.

Powe has his hops back - and his finishing with authority. He can now take that little kick from Rondo, Pierce or KG and finish. He might be the best at this own the whole team (outside of KG).

Powe is a real pleasant find and has vindicated all of his supporters and even surpassed expectations. I don't miss Gomes at all with Powe around. As for BBD I fear weight gain and regression. I feel that he gained a few pounds since the start of the season. (But I could be wrong).

Weight is a struggle (amazingly) for so many ballers. PP struggled with weight in his childhood... Maybe he can give BBD some tips. And despite what BfB has said. this IS a Powe vs. BBD debate. We don't need both guys (although at times it can be a luxury).

I suspect in the playoffs it will be mostly Powe.

Pete