Offseason Plan 1.0

[pointman]

The Golden State Warriors will have a lot of roster spots to fill out this off-season with only 6 players currently under contract (assuming Baron doesn't opt-out). Top on Mullin's list is bringing back Ellis and Biedrins, but what next? At MINIMUM, I would like to have the following transactions take place starting with #1 on draft day, June 26.

1. Draft Marreese Speights (Love if he falls to us, Arthur if Speights is gone)
2. Draft Pat Calathes
3. Re-sign Monta Ellis (5 yr/$45m : $7m, $8m, $9m, $10m, $11m)
4. Re-sign Andris Beidrins (5 yr/$42.5m : $6.5m, $7.5m, $8.5m, $9.5m, $10.5m)
5. Re-sign Mickael Pietrus (4 yr/$17m : $3.5m, $4m, $4.5m, $5m) 4th yr P.O.
6. Re-sign Kelenna Azubuike (3 yr/$9m : $2.5m, $3m, $3.5 mil) 3rd yr. P.O.
7. Re-sign C.J. Watson (2 yr/$2.5m : $1m, $1.5m) 3rd yr T.O. @ $2m
8. Renegotiate and Extend Baron (2 yr/$32m : $16m, $15 m) 3rd yr T.O. @ $14m
9. Use MLE to sign Chris Duhon (3 yr/$11.25m : $3.5m, $3.75m, $4m) 4th yr T.O. @ $4.25m
10. Sign Julius Hodge (1 yr/$0.75 mil)
T.O. = Team Option, P.O. = Player Option


Approximate Salaries:

Baron Davis - $16,000,000
Al Harrington - $9,226,250
Stephen Jackson - $7,140,000
Monta Ellis - $7,000,000
Andris Biedrins - $6,500,000
Adonal Foyle - $6,400,000
Chris Duhon - $3,500,000
Mickael Pietrus - $3,500,000
Kellena Azubuike - $2,500,000
Brandan Wright -$2,497,320
Kosta Perovic - $1,800,000
Marco Belinelli - $1,445,720
Marreese Speights - $1,424,400
CJ Watson - $1,000,000
Julius Hodge - $750,000
Pat Calathes - $700,000

Total Team Salary - $71,419,690


2008/2009 Warriors Lineup:

PG: Davis/Duhon/Watson
SG: Ellis/Azubuike/Belinelli
SF: Jackson/Pietrus/Hodge
PF: Harrington/Wright/Calathes
C: Biedrins/Speights/Perovic

Again, this would be the bare minimum I would do to make this team better going into another tough season in the stacked Western Conference. Things will probably change from now leading up to the draft, but if we are able to land Marreese Speights at #14 and Pat Calathes at #44, we will have improved our front line considerably. In Speights, we get a strong rebounder and defender that we have been missing for so long. He has range out to 15 feet and is mobile enough to fit in Nellie-ball alongside Biedrins or Wright. In Calathes, we would be getting a versatile SF/PF that could do many things well including scoring, rebounding, distributing the ball, defending, shooting 3's, hitting free throws, and playing with a high awareness and intelligence. Some have compared his ball-handling abilities to Dunleavy, so that is a huge plus when evaluating whether a player would fit in the Warriors' system.

Chris Duhon, or someone of equal skill and talent, will be vital to a successful off-season. Baron MUST have a reliable back-up that Nelson will trust and play. This will allow Baron to play as hard as he can every second he is on the floor and not worry about saving enough energy for the 4th quarter. If Baron's minutes get down to the 34 min. range and a few games off, we will not see a repeat collapse down the stretch like we saw this year.

At the swing positions, we have a load of options, but in Nellie-ball, you cannot have enough scoring options to go to sitting on your bench. If we are going to bring back Pietrus and Azubuike for their defense, the team could use another versatile player that could do it all - even initiate the offense. The Warriors have had good success finding talen in the D-League, so why not tap 6'-7" Julius Hodge to round out the roster. He is dominating the D-League averaging: 23.7 pts, 8.3 reb, 6.0 ast, 1.2 stl, and shooting .599 fg%. Hodge is also leading the league in EFF and has a career .412 3pt% so we know he has range. Hodge is a fiery competitor with a determination to battle back from a near fatal shooting incident that left his career in question. It looks like he is ready to come back home to the NBA.

In the weeks leading up to the draft, I'll continue to tweak the Offseason Plan by looking at other scenerios using the MLE and T.E. along with trades, but for now, this is looking pretty solid. We're bringing back key Warriors, adding a reliable backup PG, a true big man, depth at the 2/3, and a versatile SF/PF that could help replace the Barnes we knew in the 2007 Playoffs. Total team salary stays below the Luxury Tax level and we won't be locked in to long deals that will prohibit us from possibly pursuing a big time FA when many of the contracts come of the books in the summer of 2010. This roster will might not be Championship caliber, but if Wright, Ellis, Beidrins, Belinelli, Azubuike, and Speights contribute and continue to develop, and Baron, Jackson, and Pietrus sustain a high level of play, you never know what could happen.


http://mindofmullin.blogspot.com/2008/04/2008-offseason-plan-10.html

[Sleepy51]

You had me up to re-sign Pete . . . then I stopped reading.

Well, I did try to keep reading, but then I got to re-sign CJ and you really lost me.

Sorry.

[Sid the Squid]

re-sign CJ

Sorry.

pointman forced me to go take two pain killers there

[turk3d]

Hey Pointman, a lot of work there and obviously you put a lot of thought into it. How about making some kind of deal to make us better next year? It looks about the same to me. Dump Pietrus, CJ and if you can trade Al do it somehow. If we couldn't win with this group this year, what make you think we will next year? The addition of Speights? Would he even get any run under the Nelliemeister?

[pointman]

Hey Pointman, a lot of work there and obviously you put a lot of thought into it. How about making some kind of deal to make us better next year? It looks about the same to me. Dump Pietrus, CJ and if you can trade Al do it somehow. If we couldn't win with this group this year, what make you think we will next year? The addition of Speights? Would he even get any run under the Nelliemeister?

We aren't that far away. We were on pace to win 53+ games much of the season until our play started going south due to fatigue and an undeveloped/under-utilized bench. A lot of this hindges on internal development, but the big thing that messed up our season has been addressed, keeping Baron fresher.

Call me crazy but for some reason, I think Pietrus is going to be able to pull it all together like Dunleavy did this year and and become a key piece to the puzzle. With the security of a long contract and an important role on the team covering SG, SF, and PF duties, Pietrus could reach his comfort level and play the way he has after this year's trade deadline.

Keep in mind, this is the bare minimum I would do. The more money Cohan is willing to throw at the problem spots, the better off we will be. If Cohan is willing to venture into Luxury Tax territory and use the Trade Exception to bring in a veteran Big, I would trade the 2nd rounder or not sign CJ Watson to make room for that guy (Wilcox? Villanueva? Artest?).

In this plan, I'm pretty confident that Speights will be able to help us and that our existing frontline of Biedrins/Wright/Kosta will improve w/ help from Harrington.

Bottom line is I still have faith in Small-Ball and with some seemingly minor additons, we can go far without making a desperation move that we will regret down the road.

[azwfan]

I dont mind it too much but i do take small issue with a few things.

1) I think Monta will get more money then that
2) I think Beans will get more money then that
3) There's no way i want to pay Pietrus that much
4) Why are we resigning CJ Watson?
5) As other ppl pointed out, how does this make us better? Its a lot of work you put into this to keep the status quo it seems.

[-bob-]

You spent alot of dough and didn't make us better. We would still be the 9th best team in West.

[turk3d]

-= original quote snipped =-

We aren't that far away. We were on pace to win 53+ games much of the season until our play started going south due to fatigue and an undeveloped/under-utilized bench. A lot of this hindges on internal development, but the big thing that messed up our season has been addressed, keeping Baron fresher.

Call me crazy but for some reason, I think Pietrus is going to be able to pull it all together like Dunleavy did this year and and become a key piece to the puzzle. With the security of a long contract and an important role on the team covering SG, SF, and PF duties, Pietrus could reach his comfort level and play the way he has after this year's trade deadline.

Keep in mind, this is the bare minimum I would do. The more money Cohan is willing to throw at the problem spots, the better off we will be. If Cohan is willing to venture into Luxury Tax territory and use the Trade Exception to bring in a veteran Big, I would trade the 2nd rounder or not sign CJ Watson to make room for that guy (Wilcox? Villanueva? Artest?).

In this plan, I'm pretty confident that Speights will be able to help us and that our existing frontline of Biedrins/Wright/Kosta will improve w/ help from Harrington.

Bottom line is I still have faith in Small-Ball and with some seemingly minor additons, we can go far without making a desperation move that we will regret down the road.

If we stay small and play Pietrus and Bukie at the 4, we wnd up even worse than last year. Portland's almost a lock to make it next year (espeically if Oden returns). Minnesota will be improved and possibly the same for Seattle and the Clips. Where does that leave us? Probably out in the cold again.

Pietrus needs to move on as long as we retain Jack (he should be playing 3 or possibly 2) playing hiim at 4 is just hurting him career wise (as well as hurting us). I'm probably one of the few Pietrus fans on this board (even though I like to goof on him a lot), but he definitely does not have a future with us and I think he knows that. Unless we somehow work a trade for Jack (which I'm doubtful) I would expect he'll be going elsewhere. As for Nellie playing rookies, I'm highly skeptical of that sort of idea. So where's the improvement? We lose Barnes who although didn't have a very good season, I see as an asset. In Duhon, we'd have a bonafide back point guard who at that price would be a definite improvement but not enough imo to make an appreciable difference. No Cro, which I'd like to see come back for cheap, just to have some big man insurane. I'd like to see Al moved for a better inside presence. Include Jack if necessary, and I'd keep Pietrus then. At least he could play his natural position and possibly start, which I where I think he'd be most effective (he even did better as a starting 4 which was out of position for him). Next year teams will likely not win as many games, this will be because there will be less teams who will be easy wins out there. .500 (or slightly above) will probably get you in the playoffs. Our record this year gets you in easily, it will just be much more difficult to get those wins.

[pointman]

I dont mind it too much but i do take small issue with a few things.

1) I think Monta will get more money then that
2) I think Beans will get more money then that
3) There's no way i want to pay Pietrus that much
4) Why are we resigning CJ Watson?
5) As other ppl pointed out, how does this make us better? Its a lot of work you put into this to keep the status quo it seems.

1) Perhaps, but as long as Cohan is willing to venture into luxury tax territory, he'll return
2) See #1
3) I don't think it's that much. I actually thought it was a little low and tacked on a 4th year player option.
4) He's cheap, Nelly likes him, and he gives us another guy that could allow Baron time to rest. CJ, however, would be the first casuality in this plan if it was apparent that the frontline still needs to be beefed up or to make room for a player aquired via the T.E.
5) See my response above.

[WarFan]

You gotta add about 2 million per year to Monta and Biedrins.
I'm not completely opposed to Pietrus coming back, but 3 years is the absolute most I'd want to commit to him. I figure the only way he ends up resigning anyways, is if nobody else will offer him anything. In that case I say screw him over again and offer him the Buike contract with the third year a team option.
I don't mind resigning Watson, but only for the minimum or basically the contract Buike got last summer.
There is no way that Baron would opt out of his 17 million to get one more guaranteed year. He's aging and frail, he wants the longest contract he can get.
I think Duhon is pretty overrated, especially on this team. If the purpose of a back-up point guard is to rest Baron, then they have to be able to play with Monta, which means guarding the 2. Duhon's even smaller than Monta and he can't shoot. I think Monta has to be the back-up point guard for 12-16 minutes a game to rest Baron.
I'm not opposed to bringing Hodge to camp, but I certainly wouldn't guarantee his salary.

[turk3d]

Yeah, why in the heck would you resign CJ, if you're going to pick up Duhon?

[darobster17]

Here's what I see happening for the W's next season. As azwfan stated, Ellis and Beans will get paid more than what you quoted.

MP,Barnes and POB are goners...Harrington could be dealt for the right player that fits into Nelly ball. He could dealt for another first rounder but doubt that happens unless they really want another first round pick.

Buki and C.J. Watson could be retained but if I had to bet Buki is the one that returns.

As far as BD, there's no way he opts and leaves the 17million on the table. What team with cap room would pay him more than that...

I'd want the W's to deal Harrington for Turkoglu and JJ Redick. Turkoglu will be a better sixth man and see some time PF/SF...I'm the biggest Duke hater but hey Redick needs a change of scenery and the guy could play with a chip on his shoulder.

We sign Dorrell Wright and Duhon. The W's will draft Darrell Arthur in the first round and take Joey Dorsey or D.J. White in the second round

Starters: BD,Ellis,Sjax,Bwright and Beans.

Our sixth men would be Bellinelli and Turkoglu.

Starter backups. Duhon,Buki,Dorrell Wright,Arthur and Kosta.

Redick will be our designated FT shooter. Dorsey or D.J.White will be our Paul Milsap type-designated rebounder/hustle guy.

[WarFan]

Turkoglu is basically the same player as Harrington, except he's actually a considerably worse rebounder. He does get assists, but is also turnover prone. I don't think Orlando would do this trade anyways with Hedo coming off the career year. Also, Redick would just be repetitive with Beli on the bench.

[giberish]

I'll just pile on what some other people have mentioned, with a few twists. This is assuming a relatively stay the course plan.

Ellis and Beindrins will get more $$, especially in the 1st year as it's against the CBA to give raises as steep as what you designate. That's probably another $3-4M.

Baron and Ellis are both best at PG, there's no need for a high(ish) salary backup like Duhon. Find the best veteran willing to take LLE money or less (~$2M). They should only be injury insurance as a backup pg when Baron or Ellis are out. This still might be Duhon as I don't think he's that in demand around the league. Also, if you get a veteran pg then there's not need to resign CJ.

Bukie can and should be resigned for about what you allot for him.

GS needs to play more with two post players (even if their both pf's). The extreme small-ball with Barnatrus at pf (or even c) is usually bad in the short run and wears the team down in the long run. With that in mind there's no need to resign MP (who wants to go to a team where he'll actually play sf anyway).

For the draft, I'd ideally want a player who can be a rotation player at SF or C as a rookie, and who isn't a reach at #14. If Love falls he could be that player (and long term make a 3-post rotation with AB and Wright). Arthur is just a PF, so while he could help in the short run, his long term role is more limited. Rush or CDR would be good fits to step into a reserve wing role, but are limited in upside so I wouldn't take them before ~#20. There's a bunch of other SF and C prospects but that all scream project. At this point I don't have a good answer for who GS should pick.

For GS to keep two post players on the court all the time, they need to add another rotation level big man. If this doesn't happen in the draft then another ~$2-3M needs to be spent on a FA, ideally a mobile center (Francisco Elson?).

[WarFan]

I would also take Duhon for LLE or less, but he's gonna want to play, and there's plenty of teams where he'd get 20 minutes or more, just not here.

As for the draft, I agree that Love is the only guy who may be available that I'd be comfortable taking that high. I've proposed this trade with Seattle (which their fans like):
14th pick and the TE for Wilcox, 24th and 32nd picks. That gets us the legit rotation big who can play either PF or C, and then we can take a pretty decent C and SF prospect later, where the value is more appropriate.

[giberish]

I would also take Duhon for LLE or less, but he's gonna want to play, and there's plenty of teams where he'd get 20 minutes or more, just not here.

As for the draft, I agree that Love is the only guy who may be available that I'd be comfortable taking that high. I've proposed this trade with Seattle (which their fans like):
14th pick and the TE for Wilcox, 24th and 32nd picks. That gets us the legit rotation big who can play either PF or C, and then we can take a pretty decent C and SF prospect later, where the value is more appropriate.

That's a great idea if Cohan's willing to pay the luxury tax for a year, but I don't see that happening.

A different option of trading the pick is to trade the #14 to Washington for either Blachete or Percherov. Both are young mobile 7' ers (who even sort of have 3-point range, so Nellie might play them). With Haywood playing great this year and Thomas returning they may not have rotation spots for both next year and could be willing to deal.

[FNQ]

-Don't dig Speights (if Arthur is there, I'd prefer him. Thabeet over Speights as well.)
-Don't dig Pat C.
-Don't like resigning Pietrus/CJ/Buke/Baron to multiyear deals.

Hell everything except the Biedrins and Tay resignings (and the Hodge signing) I totally dislike... we pay a lot of money for a backup PG who got ran out of Chicago, and cannot shoot. We extend Baron after quitting on our team. We resign 2 gimmickball D-leaguers to multiyear deals after Nellie is gone. We sign Mikael Pietrus back to think he's an all-star and make spectactular looking (key word, looking) plays. Speights is a raw bruiser, and how would we develop him?

Calathes is interesting, I only really heard about him last week or so... but he's an exclusive wing player at 6'10 and the way I've heard his shot described, I can't imagine he'd get it comfortably in the NBA unless he was just a drive and kick player. And at that point, that would make his dribbling abilities pretty neutral. But overall, not a fan, not even in the 2nd

[bballguy50]

We better not sign MP at all, let alone for $17 mil over 4 years. That's ludicrous.

That's too much for CJ, we can find a cheap, more veteran PG with that $. I don't like Duhon though. Maybe someone like Udrih, who could come cheap and can accept his role.

The Buike deal is fine, if he wants to come back. I'd keep him as a bench guy.

Do NOT extend Baron. He'll take his $17 mil, then we can see what's up next offseason.

Hodge would be interesting.

Are we forgetting Najera? He would be a good pickup if we somehow found the $.

I'm still pimpin Josh Duncan with our 2nd rounder.

[GS Warriors 1]

Just focusing on Warriors/free agency here:

3. Re-sign Monta Ellis (5 yr/$45m : $7m, $8m, $9m, $10m, $11m)

Maybe 5/50. There were several 3 year deals last year, so I don't know if he wants to go in this route but I'd be ok with giving him a 5 year deal.

4. Re-sign Andris Beidrins (5 yr/$42.5m : $6.5m, $7.5m, $8.5m, $9.5m, $10.5m)

Probably another 5/50 unless he wants to go in the 3 year route, which would still garner about $30M for 3.

5. Re-sign Mickael Pietrus (4 yr/$17m : $3.5m, $4m, $4.5m, $5m) 4th yr P.O.

I wouldn't pay him that much and it sounds like the Warriors are ready to move on.

[quote[6. Re-sign Kelenna Azubuike (3 yr/$9m : $2.5m, $3m, $3.5 mil) 3rd yr. P.O.[/quote]

Its not a bad deal but it is risky in that there is potential that he'll flame out badly ala Barnes 07-08. This about what the average 8th-9th man is probably making and I see Azubuike as that type, not a 6th man. If there is not much of a market, then give him a 1 year deal at $2.5-3M. Thats probably what I'm hoping for. Anything more than $3.5M, I would let him go.

7. Re-sign C.J. Watson (2 yr/$2.5m : $1m, $1.5m) 3rd yr T.O. @ $2m

No way I'd give Watson a multi-year deal. If anything, the guy is roster filler at a cheap 1 year contract.

8. Renegotiate and Extend Baron (2 yr/$32m : $16m, $15 m) 3rd yr T.O. @ $14m

I'm starting to doubt whether the team is going to extend him, so I'm guessing he'll return at $17M and play out the contract.

9. Use MLE to sign Chris Duhon (3 yr/$11.25m : $3.5m, $3.75m, $4m) 4th yr T.O. @ $4.25m

This is probably too much. Let Ellis run the team when Baron is resting.

10. Sign Julius Hodge (1 yr/$0.75 mil)
T.O. = Team Option, P.O. = Player Option

Hodge should not be guaranteed $750,000.

[crzy]

You spent alot of dough and didn't make us better. We would still be the 9th best team in West.

10th.

Portland.