Andrew Bogut vs. Emeka Okafor

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Andrew Bogut vs. Emeka Okafor

Andrew Bogut
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56%
Emeka Okafor
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44%
 
Total votes: 43

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Post#21 » by tsherkin » Tue Apr 22, 2008 3:06 pm

paul wrote:Interesting that a lot of people are saying that Okafor if used better would be the better player. Bogut was barely an afterthought for his first 2 and a half seasons in the league, Stott's offense just didn't give him the ball anywhere near scoring position and LK's for the first half of this season was no better. LK then came out in early January and said he'd made a mistake and was going to go to Bogut more, and from that point on Bogut averaged 16/10.5/3/1.8 blocks in 48 games. And that with Redd and Mo Williams shooting the thing every chance they got.
Bogut is younger, more adept offensively, very solid defensively and has a very high basketball iq. Bogut for me, pretty easily.


Yeah, improper utilization of Bogut has to be a factor because he'd be displaying his passing ability from the high post more effectively (and the low post, more importantly) but to do that, he'd need to not be an abysmal failure as a mid-range shooter. That can and probably will come in time, though.

Bogut is not more adept offensively; he is a better passer. That is the ONLY area in which he exhibits a superiority to Okafor in an offensive category.

No one's saying Bogut is bad and no one particularly intelligent is saying that the gap between the two is especially large.

BUT.

Okafor is a considerably better rebounder, pushing 12 boards per 36 minutes and otherwise outrebounding Bogut 10.7 to 9.8 despite playing 2 fewer minutes a game but there it is. His rebounding rate is a full 2% higher than Bogut's, too.

That's a big factor here. Okafor is an outstanding rebounder and Bogut is not, though he's certainly neither bad nor below average.

Bogut is not a good man-on defender and while he numerically approaches Okafor as a shot-blocker, I am leery of making much of a single-season outlier such as he has put forth this season. Even allowing for that as a development in his game instead of a random spike in his shot-blocking, Okafor still does a better job of blocking his own man, rotating on help D and blocking shots that stay inbounds and (more often than not) go to teammates. He's also WAY better about the second and third jump, something Bogut does not possess.

Depending on the pieces of your team, then, the particular skills of the respective players might be more appealing which is why this is not a "X, and easily" comparison.

Okafor is much better defensively and a lot better on the glass. Traditionally speaking, that seals the deal for me because that means that Bogut is a poor-man's Brad Miller (a little better on the glass and as a scorer but a pale shadow at the line and as a mid-range shooter).

Okafor is a lot more fluid these days than most people seem to realize or credit him as being. He's spent two or three summers working with Hakeem Olajuwon at Olajuwon's big man camp now and it's really starting to show in the way he goes baseline or makes his move into the lane, the way he's selling his pump fakes, that sort of thing. It'd be more apparent if his coaching staff would wise the Hell up and give him more touches instead of going to low-percentage gunners in the backcourt.
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Post#22 » by conleyorbust » Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:04 pm

tsherkin (or anyone else that has analyzed Oka's game), was last year's shotblocking performance an anomaly? He isn't really fouling any less or getting more steals, I thought last season he was going to come on as a 2.5 bpg player but it looks like he regressed to where he as a shotblocker in his first 2 years. Is there anything that has to do with a different defensive schem last season that could explain that?
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Post#23 » by paul » Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:04 pm

I don't think it should be forgotten also that Okafur is more than two years older than Bogut, and has been a pro for a year longer, meaning his development really should be further progressed than Bogut's.
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Post#24 » by nate33 » Tue Apr 22, 2008 4:15 pm

Here are their pace-adjusted per-40 numbers for the season and for the 2nd half of the season:
Season

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
bogut,andrew 16.7 11.4  3.0  1.0  2.0  2.6 .511 .532 17.6
okafor,emeka 16.9 13.0  1.0  0.9  2.1  2.4 .534 .552 17.5


Second Half

Code: Select all

Player        PTS  REB  AST  STL  BLK   TO eFG%  TS%  PER
bogut,andrew 17.3 11.8  3.2  1.1  2.0  2.5 .495 .521 18.2
okafor,emeka 17.7 13.6  1.2  0.5  1.9  2.7 .541 .561 17.2


Both guys improved as the season went on, but Bogut's improvement was a little greater. I think it's pretty much a toss up between who is better right now. Okafor might have a small edge because of his superior help defense, but I think Bogut has a considerably higher ceiling. The bottom line is that Bogut is 2 inches taller and 2 years younger. He's also a poorer shooter, giving him more room for improvement.

I'd definitely prefer Bogut on my team.
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Post#25 » by skones » Tue Apr 22, 2008 10:01 pm

tsherkin wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Okafor with 2 more shots per game would be a minimum 16 ppg player and he's already BEEN a 15 ppg player in his career before, which suggests that it's not a huge stretch for him to score just a little more than that.



Granted he has been a 15 ppg player before, that last time he had two more shot attempts he scored that 15ppg on 44.7 percent shooting which is absolutely abysmal. Yes it was his rookie year, but correct me if I'm wrong, it was also the only season in his career where the ball was dumped into him and he was asked to score as opposed to getting feeds off good passes and putbacks. (I could be very wrong seeing as how I don't watch a TON of Bobcats basketball)

I'm curious, what stat shows that he was better besides Opp PER?


I was referring to opponents per which obviously is a flawed statistic, but you also have to take into account the flaws that come with On/Off the court statistics due to the players he's often playing with (who are absolutely atrocious defenders).

Bogut is not more adept offensively; he is a better passer. That is the ONLY area in which he exhibits a superiority to Okafor in an offensive category.


This is the one I have a real problem with. If you insist on using On/Off statistics to show how Okafor is a better defender, would it not be plausible, with your logic, to do the same to show how Bogut is the better offensive player? Given defense and offense in On/Off statistics, Bogut was a +1.9 per 100 possessions while Okafor was a +.2 per 100 possessions. Bogut finally began to be used in post up situations on January 1st, with that being said here are the numbers for both guys after that point:

Emeka Okafor:
14.2 points
10.7 rebounds
1.6 blocks
54.6%

Andrew Bogut:
16 points
10.5 rebounds
1.7 blocks
51.9 FG%

I just felt that was an interesting thing to put out there to show what kind of player Bogut is when put into use rather than running around and setting picks like instructed for 2 and a half seasons. The best part is that he sustained that level of play for three and a half months which is a pretty large sample size, one that Emeka Okafor has never matched over the course of his career. My point is to show, that at this point, it seems Bogut's back to the basket game is superior to Emeka Okafors until proven otherwise which obviously has not been done. To say it's not is blatant refusal of recognition IMO. By saying that passing is the only offensive category in which Bogut is the superior player is over the top.

Bogut is not a good man-on defender

This is absolutely false. Although he's been awful in seasons past, he was quite good this season and was clearly the Bucks best defender on the floor (which isn't saying a whole lot since we are among the worst teams in the league defensively). Bogut's added strength this season allowed him to hold his position much more effectively and he seemed to block a lot of shots this season while still being among the league leaders in charges taken like years past. He plays defense smart, and has become an above average to good defender. I just think Emeka Okafor is slightly overrated in that aspect of the game but that's just me.
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Post#26 » by tsherkin » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:42 am

skones wrote:Granted he has been a 15 ppg player before, that last time he had two more shot attempts he scored that 15ppg on 44.7 percent shooting which is absolutely abysmal. Yes it was his rookie year, but correct me if I'm wrong, it was also the only season in his career where the ball was dumped into him and he was asked to score as opposed to getting feeds off good passes and putbacks. (I could be very wrong seeing as how I don't watch a TON of Bobcats basketball)


Discussing anything before this season and last year is irrelevant though because his skillset is entirely different on offense between then and now on account of time spent with Olajuwon and just training on his own. I've watched Okafor develop a pretty reasonable offensive skill set, certainly enough to warrant more touches, and MOST certainly to warrant touches that would otherwise goto Felton.

I was referring to opponents per which obviously is a flawed statistic, but you also have to take into account the flaws that come with On/Off the court statistics due to the players he's often playing with (who are absolutely atrocious defenders).


Opp PER doesn't accurately reflect matchups on a consistent basis and isn't a very useful stat. Defensive Win Shares, DRTG, defensive rebounding, that sort of stuff, much better indicators, relatively speaking and all favor Okafor. Empirical observation does the same.

This is absolutely false. Although he's been awful in seasons past, he was quite good this season and was clearly the Bucks best defender on the floor (which isn't saying a whole lot since we are among the worst teams in the league defensively). Bogut's added strength this season allowed him to hold his position much more effectively and he seemed to block a lot of shots this season while still being among the league leaders in charges taken like years past. He plays defense smart, and has become an above average to good defender. I just think Emeka Okafor is slightly overrated in that aspect of the game but that's just me.


Mind I did not say "bad," I said "not good." He's NOT a good man defender. Okafor is a good man defender.

A good man defender is considerably more impactful against a broader variety of guys than Bogut, who was most certainly measurably improved his man-on defense but is not to the point where I'm comfortable calling him a GOOD man-on defender. His strength is certainly helping him and perhaps in time, that label will be his to claim but it is not the case this year. I have been most impressed with his leap as a shot-blocker, especially if it holds, but I do not agree with your statement here. Okafor is not overrated in this regard and Bogut is... I don't want to say overrated, because that's not true, but I think you're slightly overstating the caliber of his man-to-man defense by comparison to the rest of his frontcourt colleagues on the Milwaukee roster.

This is the one I have a real problem with. If you insist on using On/Off statistics to show how Okafor is a better defender, would it not be plausible, with your logic, to do the same to show how Bogut is the better offensive player?


No, because since neither player is used effectively on offense, there isn't an accurate value representation of offensive caliber for either player and the disparity in team offense warps the comparison.

Bogut plays in offensive lineups superior to those in which Okafor plays, which makes the difference between his presence and absence much more significant to the team's offensive success and failure in terms of comparison of relative offensive value. You play 20 of your 35 minutes a night alongside Michael Redd, your time off the floor is going to look noticeably worse by comparison.
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Post#27 » by skones » Wed Apr 23, 2008 7:50 am

tsherkin wrote:-= original quote snipped =-


Bogut plays in offensive lineups superior to those in which Okafor plays, which makes the difference between his presence and absence much more significant to the team's offensive success and failure in terms of comparison of relative offensive value. You play 20 of your 35 minutes a night alongside Michael Redd, your time off the floor is going to look noticeably worse by comparison.


Doesn't the same go for Okafor playing next to Jason Richardson, who by all accounts, actually had a better year than Redd himself? Milwaukee, was less efficient than Charlotte offensively during the 2007-2008 campaign, making your "superior lineups" argument false.
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Post#28 » by OzThunder » Wed Apr 23, 2008 9:59 am

bogut. i saw okafor in a couple of games this season and he looked like he was lost. at the moment bogut is okafor plus being a good passer and having some shooting touch.
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Post#29 » by NO-KG-AI » Wed Apr 23, 2008 1:00 pm

LOL, people are vastly underrating how good Okafor is on defense.
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Post#30 » by paul » Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:07 pm

Bogut went for 16.7 ppg @ 54% FG%in 3 games versus Okafor this season, comfortably above his season averages, including a game of 25 (on 10/15 shooting). Okafor is a good defender, but he's not THAT good.

Okafor in those games? 14.7 ppg at 53% with a top score of 17.
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Post#31 » by tsherkin » Wed Apr 23, 2008 3:54 pm

paul wrote:Bogut went for 16.7 ppg @ 54% FG%in 3 games versus Okafor this season, comfortably above his season averages, including a game of 25 (on 10/15 shooting). Okafor is a good defender, but he's not THAT good.

Okafor in those games? 14.7 ppg at 53% with a top score of 17.


Comparing them directly isn't actually helpful. You'll notice in those games, Okafor had more than 11 shots once and scored 17 points. And in the 25-point game, you fail to note that Okafor played 28 minutes and Bogut 35 and that Okafor still grabbed 2 more rebounds and blocked 2 more shots.

Besides, singular offensive performances do not decry the value of a defender... how many guys scored 30+ on Jordan? How many times did Shaq embarass Ewing, D-Rob or even Olajuwon? Did the Diesel or did he not drop 28 ppg on Hakeem Olajuwon a year after his second consecutive DPOY on just about 60% shooting?

Is that any indicator that Olajuwon wasn't one of the best defenders in NBA history?

Sample size as small as that is meaningless.
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Post#32 » by tsherkin » Wed Apr 23, 2008 4:00 pm

skones wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



Doesn't the same go for Okafor playing next to Jason Richardson, who by all accounts, actually had a better year than Redd himself? Milwaukee, was less efficient than Charlotte offensively during the 2007-2008 campaign, making your "superior lineups" argument false.


To be fair, Charlotte was 24th in the league in offensive ranking, Milwaukee was 21st. They were 22nd (MIL) and 23rd (CHA) in Hollinger's rankings, so there was very little separation between the teams in that regard.

And upon further review, you win. Bogut played 20 mpg with Redd and despite giving up small margins in efficiency and passing to Redd, Richardson played a hair over 24 mpg with Richardson, who was near enough that it didn't matter.

My bad, I missed that the first time around.
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Post#33 » by HeyIt'sMe » Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:32 pm

I know it's just one player and all and that it's kind of a poor way to judge someone, especially when I never watch Bobcats games outside of when they play Orlando, but I don't see this alleged "great defense" against Howard, who's just abused the hell out of Emeka since the following of his rookie season. I know Dwight's an absolute physical specimen and can be hard to handle, but Okafor has no chance against him anytime they go head-to-head.

I think Okafor is a darn good defensive player, but he's being a tad overrated on here.
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Post#34 » by tsherkin » Wed Apr 23, 2008 10:58 pm

HeyIt'sMe wrote:I know it's just one player and all and that it's kind of a poor way to judge someone, especially when I never watch Bobcats games outside of when they play Orlando, but I don't see this alleged "great defense" against Howard, who's just abused the hell out of Emeka since the following of his rookie season. I know Dwight's an absolute physical specimen and can be hard to handle, but Okafor has no chance against him anytime they go head-to-head.

I think Okafor is a darn good defensive player, but he's being a tad overrated on here.


No, there's a difference between being a very good defender and being able to handle the beasts of the game. That's like saying that Gary Payton was an overrated defender because he couldn't handle Jordan.

Dwight's the most dominant post specimen in the league AND Okafor doesn't get any kind of reasonable defensive help when trying to guard him.
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Post#35 » by paul » Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:17 am

tsherkin wrote:-= original quote snipped =-



No, there's a difference between being a very good defender and being able to handle the beasts of the game. That's like saying that Gary Payton was an overrated defender because he couldn't handle Jordan.

Dwight's the most dominant post specimen in the league AND Okafor doesn't get any kind of reasonable defensive help when trying to guard him.


We could go around and around like this all day, but saying Okafor doesn't get any reasonable help defense and not mentioning Bogut's situation is ridiculous. The 4's beside Bogut this year were Yi, a severely understrength PF who wouldn't know low post or help D if it punched him in the face, and Charlie V, considered by many to be the worst defensive PF in the game today, and one of the worst defenders period, particularly on help.
Bogut's opponent's got dunks against him all season long while he was off helping guard someone else's guy, and he spent a lot of the season having to guard mismatch guy's like West, Garnett, Boozer etc because the Bucks 4's simply couldn't handle them. I'd be absolutely shocked if Okafor wasn't getting more help than Bogut.

Also interestingly in the 2 games Bogut guarded Dwight this year he did hold him pretty well, keeping him under his scoring averages both times. I understand what your saying about small sample sizes, but Dwight did abuse Emeka this season, and Bogut holding him makes your "there's a difference between being a very good defender and being able to handle the beasts of the game" quote seem a little lopsided.

I'm not sure if Okafor's defense is being overrated here or Bogut's underrated, maybe a little of both, but I don't think there's a huge descrepency between the two defensively.

I'm still surprised the age difference hasn't been talked about more as well, Bogut is more than two years younger, that argument seems to work well for Bynum fans.
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Post#36 » by tsherkin » Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:36 am

paul wrote:We could go around and around like this all day, but saying Okafor doesn't get any reasonable help defense and not mentioning Bogut's situation is ridiculous. The 4's beside Bogut this year were Yi, a severely understrength PF who wouldn't know low post or help D if it punched him in the face, and Charlie V, considered by many to be the worst defensive PF in the game today, and one of the worst defenders period, particularly on help.


I didn't mean to make the point in favor of Okafor and deny it Bogut, I meant it in the context of Okafor-v-Howard.

Dwight did abuse Emeka this season, and Bogut holding him makes your "there's a difference between being a very good defender and being able to handle the beasts of the game" quote seem a little lopsided.


Yeah, but he still averaged over 20 ppg and 12 rpg against Bogut, so it wasn't a really mega-awesome defensive performance. The first game was the season opener and Dwight only got 9 shots, though he was 8/10 at the line. The next one was a 20-pointer and Dwight was 8/16 at the line. Then a 25-pointer where he was 11/14 at the line and 7/12 from the field to close out the season series. Yeah, he didn't go bug nuts on the Bucks but it wasn't so much to do with Bogut as it was Dwight missing FTs one game and then other guys scoring.

Remember, Lewis and Turkoglu combined for 50 points in the season opener and while he sucked that game, Nelson also put up 10 shots. The opportunities for explosive offense were reduced by the success of his teammates. There was a lot of balanced shot distribution in the second game, too. 18 shots for Lewis, 11 for Hedo, 9 for Nelson and Dooling, 8 for Evans...

Why bother with Dwight if the rest of the team is clicking well? The trend holds in all three games.

I'm not sure if Okafor's defense is being overrated here or Bogut's underrated, maybe a little of both, but I don't think there's a huge descrepency between the two defensively.

I'm still surprised the age difference hasn't been talked about more as well, Bogut is more than two years younger, that argument seems to work well for Bynum fans.[/quote]
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Post#37 » by the southern dandy » Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:55 am

This is a really hard choice for me. Looking from the Spurs' point of view I would definitely take Okafor. His shotblocking and rebounding would be amazing in the Spurs system.

If I was starting a team I would go with Bogut. I think he made some really good strides in Milwaukee this season and he has the potential to be a major factor in a team's offense.
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Post#38 » by paul » Thu Apr 24, 2008 3:58 am

tsherkin wrote:Yeah, but he still averaged over 20 ppg and 12 rpg against Bogut, so it wasn't a really mega-awesome defensive performance. The first game was the season opener and Dwight only got 9 shots, though he was 8/10 at the line. The next one was a 20-pointer and Dwight was 8/16 at the line. Then a 25-pointer where he was 11/14 at the line and 7/12 from the field to close out the season series. Yeah, he didn't go bug nuts on the Bucks but it wasn't so much to do with Bogut as it was Dwight missing FTs one game and then other guys scoring.


Actually Bogut was out having surgery on his broken nose for that 3rd meeting, he only played the first 2 against Dwight, averaging him out to 18 ppg / 12.5 rpg on 45% shooting, quite a distance below his season averages.

I agree it is a small sample size, but against Emeka he averaged 26.5 ppg / 19.3 rpg, on 64% shooting, a pretty massive difference.

No huge deal here, but if we're giving Okafur a pass for getting absolutely torched by Dwight, we should give Bogut some credit for not.

ETA - Something else to consider when talking about their respective defense, 82games.com just released their 'offensive fouls drawn' list for the season with Bogut finishing second with 53, Okafor had 11.
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Post#39 » by tsherkin » Thu Apr 24, 2008 4:00 am

I dunno, actually. From the POV of San Antonio, I'd be inclined to take Bogut.

He's not an awful defender and their system would cover for him even if he was because of Duncan and Bowen and everyone else moving so well in their rotations.

I think his passing would be of considerable value to San Antonio moreso than Okafor's presence on the low block.

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