Key Off-Season Decisions

[deNIEd]

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Uhh...Petrie DOES have a "clear, 100%" plan of what he is going to do. That plan is to position the team financially to have the ability to have a lot of free agent flexibility in 2009. You know this, everyone knows this. You just don't have the patience to accept the fact that change doesn't happen overnight. You want to snap your fingers and magically have a #1 draft pick and a star player land on the roster. Sorry, buckey, the real world don't work that way.

You are right in one respect, moving Miller's contract for expiring deals will be critical to helping the team improve in the future. That may be a priority of the summer, however I think we could get more out of him by waiting until next year's deadline. Also, the longer he can be around to mentor Hawes, the better it is for the team in the long run.

Just having financial flexiblity is a horrible plan. First off, its been mentioned numerous times, the free agents in 2009 are not all that great.
M. Bibby, M. Williams, L. Powe, R. Felton, S. May, D. Gooden, B. Bass, J. kidd, A. Iverson, L. Kleiza, J. Maxiell, R. Wallace, B. Davis, D. Granger, E. Brand, C. Maggette, A. Bynum, L. Odom, H. Warrick, S. Marion, A. Bogut, C. Villanueva, C. Paul, D. Lee, R. Artest, F. Garcia, C. Wilcox, D. Williams, G. Arenas

Of the free agents, the best ones being Bynum, Paul, and Williams, I will bet anything on earth that they will be resigned by their current teams. The remaining players will not change a franchise on any significant level. Arenas will return, Brand/Wallace/Davis/Kidd will be too old to make a long term difference.

If we want cap in 09, who are we going after? There is no one.


Again, I bring up the point, look at all the teams in the NBA currently. This year only Lakers, Spurs, Celtics, and possibly Hornets have a real shot at the title. Everyone else doesn't.

Building a championship team isn't that simple. Every single aspect of the team has to be perfect/near perfect (unless you have enough superstar power) for a team to win. Currently we have 2/5 maybe 3/5 of a starting lineup set. Our bench isn't great, and we have nearly 25 million tied up in 1 position, without absolutley no way out of their contracts other than waiting it out.
We don't have the pieces to make a major trade (ie KG type trade) and our players are only getting older and older. So yes, I again believe that Petrie does not have a clear cut plan of what he wants to do with the franchise.
(It took him 4 freakin years to even decide that we need to rebuild)

The more I watch the playoffs, the more I believe that without a superstar big/allstar pg or superstar pg/allstar big, a team has no shot at winning (and we have neither).


Mitch - Sure that should be the goal, but there are several different ways of doing that. Again, I'm not saying that this team, as is, can compete for a championship. But they can be competitive and that is good for the franchise in many ways. Let's say that if this team stays healthy, they can have a 44 win season. In all likelihood that won't result in a playoff birth next year, but teams will respect us and our players, and fan support will increase. Spencer will get enough time to work on what he needs to work on, and the rest of our guys may be able to earn spots in the rotation.
Say we do get 44 wins next season. What will that take? A completely healthy season all year long. Great play from Miller, Artest, Moore, and possibly Shareef.
44 wins great.

What happens the year after that?

We are a 44 win team IF everything is functioning perfectly. Any trade we make, will require us to deplete talent in order to gain talent, so a trade won't push us to 50-60 wins, no, we will still stay around 44 wins.
ie (Add TJ ford to that 44 win team, great, he's exactly what we need, but we need to give up Artest to get him, making the trade a near wash)

Free agents. Signing a free agent will require players to expire, Artest/Miller/Moore, meaning our team will have to get worse again before it can get good. A team of Udrih/Martin/Artest/Moore/Miller vs a team of Udrih/Martin/Garcia/Brand/Hawes, do the two teams really drastically vary that much? Maybe one is a 44 win team, but the other is a 48 team at the most.

[pillwenney]

We are a 44 win team IF everything is functioning perfectly. Any trade we make, will require us to deplete talent in order to gain talent, so a trade won't push us to 50-60 wins, no, we will still stay around 44 wins.
ie (Add TJ ford to that 44 win team, great, he's exactly what we need, but we need to give up Artest to get him, making the trade a near wash)

Free agents. Signing a free agent will require players to expire, Artest/Miller/Moore, meaning our team will have to get worse again before it can get good. A team of Udrih/Martin/Artest/Moore/Miller vs a team of Udrih/Martin/Garcia/Brand/Hawes, do the two teams really drastically vary that much? Maybe one is a 44 win team, but the other is a 48 team at the most.

How so? Starting next summer we'll have around $30million in expirings. That will be about $30million dedicated to a 33-year-old Brad Miller, Mikki, SAR, and Kenny. By then I'm thinking Spencer may very well be ready to take over for Brad, so we won't lose a whole lot there. We'll have future draft picks to add to expirings, we'll have whoever we pick this year, and who knows who else. I'm not really seeing where a potential trade for a star would likely result in us giving up equal talent.

And well no, not necessarily. I mean that's true with Ron, but there is also the potential of trading him for a good package, depending on what's available. But with Brad and Mikki, we'll have capspace as soon as they expire, so if we sign someone good to replace them, we'll actually get better. That's kind of the appeal of capspace.

And I don't know why you left Salmons out of that lineup given that he would start over Cisco, but yes, there is a significant difference between Salmons\Brand\Hawes in comparison to Artest\Moore\Miller. It seems you're forgetting that Spencer will be in his third year in league when this would happen (at the earliest). He won't have reached his full potential, but he also certainly won't be the player he is now, and I think he'll be ready to be a good consistent starter.

And ignoring the fact that you left out the possibility of who we would draft this year and next year, and who we may trade Ron and/or Brad for (since even without Brad, we'll probably have enough in expirings to potentially bring in a big name), I think you're looking at this with some tunnel vision.

[Smills91]

Mitch are you some type of effing English major?

[pillwenney]

Mitch are you some type of effing English major?

It's funny you should ask that, because I'm actually avoiding homework right now. But no, I'm not.

[PaKwAn]

I know this is not related to the topic but do any of you know the list or site of the free agents in 2010? and is that the year we shed most of our big contracts?

[KingInExile]

I know this is not related to the topic but do any of you know the list or site of the free agents in 2010? and is that the year we shed most of our big contracts?

http://www.realgm.com/src_freeagents/2010/

[SacKingZZZ]

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So it's not a good thing for our young players to contribute to a team that wins? It's not good for them to actually possibly contribute to some games in crunch time against really good teams? Personally, for Spencer's sake, I'd rather have him playing 20-25 min/game on a 40+ win team than playing 36 min/game on a 30 win team. And actually, thinking about it, I already did argue some of these points. Like Shelden, for instance, the most important improvements he can make right now are really largely the kind of things a guy can pick up and learn in practice. Unfortunately, during the second half of the season, the team wasn't practicing as much, so to a certain degree, he had to fly by the seat of his pants--which is going to be extremely difficult for any young player. But I don't think throwing him to the wolves is going to help him all that much. Our young guys are making plenty mistakes right now, and they have enough things that they know they need to improve on. Playing them more would just lead to them making the same mistakes more.
As for Ron, I basically agree that they should know what they want. But I think part of the issue this year will again be what Ron wants. I think the main reason his agent is having him not exercise his contract option this year is that there is pretty much no market for him at all. But there will be a market in 09, and so I think the chances of him leaving are much greater. I think Geoff may see that as well, so he may try to get something for him at the deadline again.

Winning helps the value of everybody that is contributing to your team--by a pretty solid amount. Like with Ron, there's a big difference between between being the main guy on a crappy team and being the main guy on a good team--a huge difference. And to a lesser extent, the same logic applies to Brad. And yes, it helps everybody in that way. And making the playoffs is important, but I mean, if you look at the Warriors, I don't think anybody thinks that they're not a playoff-caliber team (besides probably Smills ). The fact that they're a good team helps out the value of everyone that contributes.
And in nowhere did I try to argue that we can contend with an Artest/Martin/Miller core. That has never been my point. My point is that trying to win as much as we can now will help everyone's value, and that just because a core won't contend, it doesn't mean you should just try to get rid of them as soon as you possibly can.

Sure there's going to be a better chance to get a good player with the higher picks. But there's also a better chance to trade for a good player when you have a good team, so there's a trade off there. And the fact remains that with this draft specifically, and the last draft, the talent level of our spot isn't really much different from the talent level at 6, or even 3/4/5 arguably. And we have a GM with a great drafting record. And the fact remains that if this team were to trade Artest and Miller for "rebuilding" packages that we would probably still be, at best, the 6th or 7th worst team in the league. Looking at this year specifically, I'd much rather be where we are than in that position.

And maybe we won't get our C-Webb at the deadline of next year (which is when we would get him), but I mean....Ray, KG, Gasol, Kidd, Shaq, and Marion have all been traded in just the last year! And before that, in the past guys like AI, Kidd another 2 times, Sheed, JO, Brand, Ray Allen again, Shaq again, Camby, Baron, and T-Mac have all been traded. So really, I'd say there's a good chance that somebody will be available. But if not, then we'll probably have to look into FA for help.

If they aren't seeing the floor enough and with the notion that they are out there to improve their OWN game then yes. There are two different timelines here. The young guys being put in the role of an off the bench role player is not how I want them used. As for Ron you can't let a player like Ron Artest or the calibur of Ron Artest leading a team to where it's being lead at the moment decide your future. Not in any way, shape, or form.

And if the idea is that we are going to try and "win as many games as possible" then I certainly don't want a bunch of rookies that don't even know who they are yet as players leading our bench unit.

Yeah KG, Gasol, etc have been traded. And I am sure past trades from the trade board had more than a few Kings fans picturing one of the already traded players as our "new CWEbb". With the exception of maybe Elton Brand I don't see anyone out there. There has to actually be one out there to be a possibility. Like I said, this time it may have to be our own draft pick that nets us a new superstar. Unless we really lucked out with Hawes or get lucky with our pick this year of course.

[PaKwAn]

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http://www.realgm.com/src_freeagents/2010/

Thanks for the info KIE....

[pillwenney]

If they aren't seeing the floor enough and with the notion that they are out there to improve their OWN game then yes. There are two different timelines here. The young guys being put in the role of an off the bench role player is not how I want them used. As for Ron you can't let a player like Ron Artest or the calibur of Ron Artest leading a team to where it's being lead at the moment decide your future. Not in any way, shape, or form.

Well then I guess that's where we differ. I mean the way I see it, none of our young guys (besides Kevin to a degree obviously) are ready to lead a team anywhere. And I don't think that the way to develop young guys is just to throw them out there against the beasts of the league to just get their asses hand to them nightly. Like with Spencer--give him a role as a role player right now, and let him learn how to play. As he learns more and more things give him more and more responsibility. I hate the idea of just dumping all the responsibility onto him right away. It's too much to try to focus on at once, and he surely won't learn a thing about winning.
How would he be deciding our future? I don't understand what you mean by that.

And if the idea is that we are going to try and "win as many games as possible" then I certainly don't want a bunch of rookies that don't even know who they are yet as players leading our bench unit.

Ugh....all right, I think I might be done with this part of the argument. You just don't seem to want to look at it in any way except "you either win now or you go entirely young". It's not about being entirely in "win now" mode it's trying to win as much as possibly while keeping and developing the young guys. Young guys don't need 35 mpg to learn the mistakes they're making.

Yeah KG, Gasol, etc have been traded. And I am sure past trades from the trade board had more than a few Kings fans picturing one of the already traded players as our "new CWEbb". With the exception of maybe Elton Brand I don't see anyone out there. There has to actually be one out there to be a possibility. Like I said, this time it may have to be our own draft pick that nets us a new superstar. Unless we really lucked out with Hawes or get lucky with our pick this year of course.

Why would you look at it from the perspective of "right now"? We're talking about who will be available in like a year and a half. Who will be available? I have no idea. Anybody could be. You can't plan on something like that.

[Smills91]

SKZZZ? What young player do we have that isn't a ROLE player? Name one. Kevin Martin? Well he gets lead player minutes...! Garcia...VERY GOOD ROLE player. Hawes....? Well, he may or may not be able to be built around, but as of right now he IS a role player - BUT he still got MINUTES this season.

You see none of these guys are BUILT to be 'FRANCHISE' players. As good as Hawes will be, I think he's at best a 2nd option type of guy, probably a 3rd option guy(similar to Vlade/Brad). Thrusting ANY of our young players into that role(franchise player) is a DETRIMENT to them. If they're role players, allow them to be just THAT, role players and they'll flourish in that role. Doug Christie was a VERY good basketball player, because he fit in line with his ROLE. If he was the THIRD option on the team, the team would NOT have been good.

The fact is, we need Martin as a 2nd option, Hawes a 3rd option. THe bad news is, we don't have a clear cut FIRST option under the age of 25. We're still looking for that. When we get that, we'll be right on track to come back to where we are trying to go.

[jeffjtk1234]

i honestly dont think martin is the type of player we should build around. I saw an idea of a martin to chicago for gordon (s&t) and either thomas or noah. I think that trade helps us out alot.

[Smills91]

i honestly dont think martin is the type of player we should build around. I saw an idea of a martin to chicago for gordon (s&t) and either thomas or noah. I think that trade helps us out alot.

Part 1 Agree, Martin should be our #2 guy(a la Peja ih his heyday here). Part 2 IDIOT(in my napolean voice) Gordon is an undersized chucker with TERRIBLE %'s. We're MUCH better off keeping Martin in that instance.

The only way I trade Martin is if we get a Gasol, Bosh, Howard caliber player. Otherwise, it's just not worth it.

[BMiller52]

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Part 1 Agree, Martin should be our #2 guy(a la Peja ih his heyday here). Part 2 IDIOT(in my napolean voice) Gordon is an undersized chucker with TERRIBLE %'s. We're MUCH better off keeping Martin in that instance.

The only way I trade Martin is if we get a Gasol, Bosh, Howard caliber player. Otherwise, it's just not worth it.

Someone on the Suns board told me they might do a Miller/Pick/Martin deal for Amare and filler. Would you do it? I would.

[pillwenney]

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Someone on the Suns board told me they might do a Miller/Pick/Martin deal for Amare and filler. Would you do it? I would.

Good God, why would they do that?

And hell yes I would do it, but really, I gotta think that that reflects the opinion of one panicking sun's fan. I really doubt that that is realistic. Not to mention that this would be their team afterwards.

Nash\Barbosa
Martin\Bell
Hill\Giricek
Miller\Diaw
Shaq\Pick

iew

[SacKingZZZ]

SKZZZ? What young player do we have that isn't a ROLE player? Name one. Kevin Martin? Well he gets lead player minutes...! Garcia...VERY GOOD ROLE player. Hawes....? Well, he may or may not be able to be built around, but as of right now he IS a role player - BUT he still got MINUTES this season.

You see none of these guys are BUILT to be 'FRANCHISE' players. As good as Hawes will be, I think he's at best a 2nd option type of guy, probably a 3rd option guy(similar to Vlade/Brad). Thrusting ANY of our young players into that role(franchise player) is a DETRIMENT to them. If they're role players, allow them to be just THAT, role players and they'll flourish in that role. Doug Christie was a VERY good basketball player, because he fit in line with his ROLE. If he was the THIRD option on the team, the team would NOT have been good.

The fact is, we need Martin as a 2nd option, Hawes a 3rd option. THe bad news is, we don't have a clear cut FIRST option under the age of 25. We're still looking for that. When we get that, we'll be right on track to come back to where we are trying to go.

Of course they are role players. But we have TOO MANY YOUNG PLAYERS for them all to be role players. Especially when you consider we will be adding a another 2-3 in another couple of months. A lot of what I am talking about involves what we will have to deal with in the near future as much as what we are dealing with now. It will only get tougher and more confusing to find that balance. We have none now and when you add in returning players like Shareef (who expects to play next season, will see if he retires or not but that isn't a guarantee by any stretch) and more youth it becomes just rediculously unbalanced.

Like I said, as a role player it doesn't put them in the best situation to get better individually. Sure it may happen but the learning curve isn't as steep. It also alters the evaluation process. We need to know what we have before we either a) let it go in free agency or b) sign it to a deal that will end up being seen as a mistake. There are plenty of guys that "blew up" for other teams because they weren't put in the best situation for them on their previous team. Play them as a "role player" then you better expect a result in accordance with that.

I see only long term benefits thinking long term. And supposedly Petrie is thinking long term. Unfortunately the way he is going that long term may be much farther off than it needs to be.

Yes, we don't have a 1st option. Although we don't %100 know that. I mean you never know until you try. My gripe is that, when taking the leagues current conditions into account, we are most likely going to have to draft one ourselves. Hey, I don't know these young guys might surprise the heck out of people but I can tell you from 2 years in a row of evidence, the team as constructed around Ron Artest probably isn't going to. Just enough to not scare the lotto teams and enough to not scare the contenders.

[SacKingZZZ]

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Good God, why would they do that?

And hell yes I would do it, but really, I gotta think that that reflects the opinion of one panicking sun's fan. I really doubt that that is realistic. Not to mention that this would be their team afterwards.

Nash\Barbosa
Martin\Bell
Hill\Giricek
Miller\Diaw
Shaq\Pick

iew

I don't think I would. I really don't think Amare is a "franchise player" enough to snag a Kevin Martin, Brad Miller, AND a lotto pick.

[Smills91]

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Of course they are role players. But we have TOO MANY YOUNG PLAYERS for them all to be role players. Especially when you consider we will be adding a another 2-3 in another couple of months. A lot of what I am talking about involves what we will have to deal with in the near future as much as what we are dealing with now. It will only get tougher and more confusing to find that balance. We have none now and when you add in returning players like Shareef (who expects to play next season, will see if he retires or not but that isn't a guarantee by any stretch) and more youth it becomes just rediculously unbalanced.

Like I said, as a role player it doesn't put them in the best situation to get better individually. Sure it may happen but the learning curve isn't as steep. It also alters the evaluation process. We need to know what we have before we either a) let it go in free agency or b) sign it to a deal that will end up being seen as a mistake. There are plenty of guys that "blew up" for other teams because they weren't put in the best situation for them on their previous team. Play them as a "role player" then you better expect a result in accordance with that.

I see only long term benefits thinking long term. And supposedly Petrie is thinking long term. Unfortunately the way he is going that long term may be much farther off than it needs to be.

Yes, we don't have a 1st option. Although we don't %100 know that. I mean you never know until you try. My gripe is that, when taking the leagues current conditions into account, we are most likely going to have to draft one ourselves. Hey, I don't know these young guys might surprise the heck out of people but I can tell you from 2 years in a row of evidence, the team as constructed around Ron Artest probably isn't going to. Just enough to not scare the lotto teams and enough to not scare the contenders.

Good grief can you not see past tomorrow? How do you think the Lakers got Pau Gasol? How do you think Denver got Allen Iverson? How do you think Phoenix got Shaq or Dallas Kidd? Those are legitimate superstars. Some may be past their primes, but they are still legitimate superstars. You got to have the ASSETS necessary to land those type of players. Petrie is 'stockpiling talent' and in 1 short year we'll have 30 + million in expiring contracts. THose expriings + prospects and picks will surely land a franchise player who wants out(there's at least one or more every year).

There is more than one way to fry a fish. Just because Petrie is doing it differently than you doesn't me he's not doing it.

[deNIEd]

Lol, I don't think you can argue AI/Shaq/Kidd as legitimate superstars anymore, since all three have pretty much made the team worse

[Smills91]

Lol, I don't think you can argue AI/Shaq/Kidd as legitimate superstars anymore, since all three have pretty much made the team worse

2 of those 3 were still all-stars THIS season...and are in the twilight of their careers for sure, but the fact is, guys like Gasol, and other star players get made avaiable EVERY season. THAT'S THE POINT I'M MAKING, not whether you want to split hairs over all-star/superstar caliber players.

[SacKingZZZ]

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Good grief can you not see past tomorrow? How do you think the Lakers got Pau Gasol? How do you think Denver got Allen Iverson? How do you think Phoenix got Shaq or Dallas Kidd? Those are legitimate superstars. Some may be past their primes, but they are still legitimate superstars. You got to have the ASSETS necessary to land those type of players. Petrie is 'stockpiling talent' and in 1 short year we'll have 30 + million in expiring contracts. THose expriings + prospects and picks will surely land a franchise player who wants out(there's at least one or more every year).

There is more than one way to fry a fish. Just because Petrie is doing it differently than you doesn't me he's not doing it.

Wait a minute you're talking about getting guys like Kidd or Shaq and I am the one not looking past tomorrow? That is the ultimate "now" kind of move. And if we had a team that by taking on a player of that level we all of a sudden became a contender then sure why not? But it most likely won't bring us there anyway, we are a lot farther off. We are closer to the teams that unloaded those player than took them on.