When is someone a bust?

Rick Rolled · Post #1 » by **Rick Rolled** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:24 am

Give Andrea one more year....

We'll see if he can avoid the Darko syndrome and break out of his constant sate of dis-interest......which is so frustrating, because the guy has talent, he's just feeble-minded and constantly looks baffled.

Huh???WHAT????

T-Spot · Post #2 » by **T-Spot** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:25 am

How many years of lee-way [not meeting expectations, or being far below expectations] would you give a player before calling him a bust?

bstein14 · Post #3 » by **bstein14** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:28 am

It depends on where he was drafted and how old he is... As well as oppurtunity.

For example, no way you could label Darko a bust after 2 1/2 seasons because he was behind Ben Wallace and Sheed in Detroit. Also he was only 18 when drafted.

Once he got a chance in Orlando he showed something, but never enough to justify his position.

In Bargs case, its easy to see he's a bust already.

manchambo · Post #4 » by **manchambo** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:39 am

How long did it take Jermaine O'Neal? He seemed like bust for, what, 4 or 5 years?

caborn · Post #5 » by **caborn** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:54 am

You can't determine when someone is a bust until at least five years pass; however, a player will usually be labeled much much earlier.

Post #6 » by **Rooster** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:56 am

manchambo wrote:How long did it take Jermaine O'Neal? He seemed like bust for, what, 4 or 5 years?

He actually looked solid. I remember him playing well in spot minutes in the 2000 WCF, for one. That Portland team just had a front line of 'Sheed, Sabas and Grant.

Cybulski37 · Post #7 » by **Cybulski37** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:57 am

I'd say three, depending on when they came out. Before, with HS players it was a bit longer. And we're starting to see some of the HS guys that weren't the LeBrons and the Dwights make some impact now. Guys like Monta Ellis and Josh Smith.Guys who spent 3-4 years in college, should take less time to be considered busts.

Post #8 » by **pillwenney** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 3:58 am

On RealGM, after about 10 games.

Paulpierce3417 · Post #9 » by **Paulpierce3417** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 4:40 am

it depends. If your coming outta college Id say about 3 years. If a player dosnt make the next step durring their 3rd year then theres a good chance their a bust. High school kids can be anywhere from 3-5 years depending on PT. as for Bargnani, if your drafted #1 and dont show great improvement during your first 2 years then theres a good chance your a bust.

TAI8 · Post #10 » by **TAI8** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:14 am

It depends on draft position. If you're the first pick in the draft and fail to meet and/or exceed expectations, then you're a bust. Take for example the first pick in the '05 draft. Bogut was compared to the likes of Duncan and look what he has done in his three years in the league; absolutely nothing. Therefore, he is a bust.

Ellis can't be considered a bust because he was drafted 40th. It only applies to lottery picks.

I personally give a player five years to determine if he is a bust or not.

Post #11 » by **Paydro70** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:16 am

I think that's a good point, PaulPierce... Tyson Chandler is another guy who looked like a nobody until at least 3 years.

It's all relative. I feel safe labeling Adam Morrison a bust, and he's only played one season. I don't feel safe labeling Bargnani a bust, but we'll probably have a solid answer after next season.

For MOST players, I would say the end of their third season they really need to at least show themselves to be a long-term NBA player. It's shorter if someone was supposedly low-upside, or "ready to play" when they came in, as opposed to an 18 year old or a project like Chandler, O'Neal, Bynum, etc.

Post #12 » by **Rooster** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:28 am

TAI8 wrote:It depends on draft position. If you're the first pick in the draft and fail to meet and/or exceed expectations, then you're a bust. Take for example the first pick in the '05 draft. Bogut was compared to the likes of Duncan and look what he has done in his three years in the league; absolutely nothing. Therefore, he is a bust.

Ellis can't be considered a bust because he was drafted 40th. It only applies to lottery picks.

I personally give a player five years to determine if he is a bust or not.

15/10 is a bust now? I think Bogut's developing just fine.

Morrison's tricky because of his injury. He's the kind of player who has talent but didn't seem to have much of an opportunity to show it despite minutes... I'd like to see him with some better scorers around him and with additional weight training before I write him off completely. So far, though, yeah.

TAI8 · Post #13 » by **TAI8** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 5:53 am

I think it's safe to call a player a bust when said player is compared to Duncan. It is not only the stats, but the impact said player has on the team. Look at the third and fourth pick in that draft. Utah went to the WCF in two years after drafting Deron. NO is currently on the verge of playing with the defending champion in the second round in three years after drafting Paul and ending their playoff drought since Baron Davis. Then look at Milwaukee. They finish their second straight season on a disappointing note and back in the lottery. Yi is their player to build around not him.

Post #14 » by **Rooster** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:01 am

I don't remember him receiving Duncan comparisons, at least commonly. I remember Brad Miller comparisons, and he's exceeding them.

The Jazz and Bucks management are pretty far apart so I don't think much can be pinned on a Bogut/Williams comparison. Utah's WCF road last season was also unnaturally easy. That said, if Milwaukee isn't convinced Bogut's a big-time player, Toronto will take him gladly.

TAI8 · Post #15 » by **TAI8** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:20 am

Well Bogut played in the playoffs in his rookie year. If you're the first pick in a draft, then you're subjected to meet and/or exceed expectations. If Milwaukee can't even make the playoffs in a severely watered down EC, then I can't even imagine what their record would look like if they were relocated in the West. What is even worse is the fact that Bogut is supposed to be their franchise player. He is supposed to be their building block. He is supposed to be the man.

YiYaoYue · Post #16 » by **YiYaoYue** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 6:55 am

how can this thread go to page 2 without anyone mentioning the biggest bust of all... KWAME BROWN

Duiz · Post #17 » by **Duiz** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 7:06 am

andrea has a lot of talent, but terrible coach in Smitch. Send him to Utah and he would become a 20/10 guy.

tmorgan · Post #18 » by **tmorgan** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:08 am

Duiz wrote:andrea has a lot of talent, but terrible coach in Smitch. Send him to Utah and he would become a 20/10 guy.

Uhh, Bargs would have to play 80 minutes a game to average 10 boards. He has a nose for "not the ball". The points, yeah, maybe, with a better coach and and a better system.

Duiz · Post #19 » by **Duiz** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 9:17 am

mitchweber wrote:On RealGM, after about 10 games.

Rasho Nesterovic is still going.

Post #20 » by **Young_Star11** » Mon Apr 28, 2008 10:24 am

Tough to say, but give it time.

Billups didn't do much in his rookie contract, but made it big playing for the MLE.

JO took a few years and PT. David West the same in recent years.

Bargnani might need to be traded some time. His trade value isn't that high right now, so they'll have to hold onto him, but it's clear to me CB4 is a 4 and Bargs is probably best suited to the 4 too. Bargs is the man to go.