Anderson Varejao Price Check

[shrink]

I can see Jaric having use on the Cavs as TheOUTLAW points out, but I don't think shrink's deal works. If Smith is only going to get $3M/yr. the Cavs can just offer him that, or more, in FA and dare the Wolves to match. The Wolves are worried about the tax and the Cavs clearly aren't.

He's not enough value to turn Jaric into an expiring AND get Varejao back. The Wolves would need to add more.

The way I see it, it'd be:

Jaric for Vareajo (?)

Snow's $7 mil expiring for Buckner's $4 mil expiring + Craig Smith $3 mil.

By doing it this way instead of trying to sign Smith as a free agent, CLE gets two nice benefits.

First they preserve their MLE to use elsewhere.

Second, they aren't adding unnecessary salary over the lux. The Cavs preserve most of the Snow expiring (they could trade Buckner's deal later of let it expire), and Craig Smith doesn't put them farther over the lux .. i.e., he costs $3 mil, not $6 mil this year.

[UptownPhilly]

Jaric also has Lima.

[loserX]

-= original quote snipped =-



The way I see it, it'd be:

Jaric for Vareajo (?)

See, and there's no way Cleveland does that. Varejao does not have negative value, and Jaric does (because of his contract, not his play). Here's how I break it down.

Jaric for Snow? Meh. Minny didn't get expirings for Hassell or Blount, and I don't see them getting expirings for Jaric. The Wolves would have to add.

Smith for Varejao? I don't really see the benefit for Cleveland, especially since they can easily run at Smith themselves without having to give Minny anything at all. Giving Varejao away to save the $3M in luxury tax would be silly.

[shrink]

Smith for Varejao? I don't really see the benefit for Cleveland, especially since they can easily run at Smith themselves without having to give Minny anything at all. Giving Varejao away to save the $3M in luxury tax would be silly.

Smith at $3 mil versus Varejao at $6 mil is certainly not silly, particularly for a team over the lux.

And as I said, if CLE decides to use some of its MLE on Smith, they simply go further over the lux paying Smith double.

[shrink]

I should also add that an argument about "CLE doesn't mind adding mroe money" probably doesn't work either.

In this deal, they can add the talent, and STILL spend the MLE elsewhere, and get even more talent.

[TheOUTLAW]

Varejao is actually a necessary cog for the Cavs. I really don't see the Cavs trading him unless he starts becoming a team cancer. That being said why do the Cavs need Jaric, Buckner and Smith? I just don't see the fit. Jaric has talent that I'd like but he's overpaid, Buckner would be the team 5th guard or so and Smith appears to be a well undersized PF. You really haven't presented anything that is much of a draw for the Cavs to make a move.

[loserX]

Smith at $3 mil versus Varejao at $6 mil is certainly not silly, particularly for a team over the lux.

It certainly is if the team is okay with being in the lux, which Cleveland is, and they can have both players for themselves without giving anything up but cash.

They're not going to give Varejao away to save money. They could have done that last year by letting him walk, and it was clear that they weren't going to, tax be damned.

Minnesota is simply not giving up enough value in this deal to dump Jaric for an expiring and get Varejao on top. Cleveland is better off standing pat or using their expirings (plus assets) to get better players.

[loserX]

^Take out Varejao and replace him with Damon Jones and it's closer. And that way, Minnesota (who ARE worried about the tax) add less money than they would by taking Varejao.

Minny takes on $1.18M up front to save $14.7M down the line.

[Smooth32]

The Redd deal mentioned on the first page is without a doubt the best deal...

The Jaric deal is a joke...

The only way we trade Varejao is to acquire a legit scorer next to LeBron...

[KB20]

My idea

Cavs Get:
Dan Gadzuric
Michael Redd
Maurice Williams

Bucks Get:
Anderson Varejao
Wally Szszerbiak
Eric Snow
#19 Overall Pick
2010 Lottery Protected 1st Round Pick


Why For Cleveland: They get some help for LeBron. Redd and Mo Williams each solve a need while Gadzuric brings depth up front. They still need a post scorer however. They might be able to package Sasha and Smith for someone like Nene.
5) Zydrunas Ilgaskus/Dan Gadzuric/
4) Ben Wallace/Joe Smith/
3) LeBron James/Devin Brown/
2) Michael Redd/Delonte West/Sasha Pavlovic
1) Maurice Williams/Daniel Gibson/Damon Jones

Why For Milwaukee: They add some Skiles type players and begin the complete rebuilding process.
5) Andrew Bogut/Anderson Varejao/
4) Yi Jianlian/Charlie Villanueva/
3) Desmond Mason/(Nicolas Batum)/
2) Wally Szszerbiak/(Eric Gordon)/
1) Charlie Bell/Ramon Sessions/Eric Snow

[Smooth32]

^^ Pass... I do not want a Williams, Redd backcourt... I'd rather get just Redd for much less...

[shrink]

It certainly is if the team is okay with being in the lux, which Cleveland is, and they can have both players for themselves without giving anything up but cash.

OK, maybe we're just not hearing each other.

1. If CLE cared about the lux, then the deal makes sense, right?

2. If CLE doesn't care about the lux, the deal still makes sense.

If Jaric + Craig Smith provides more production than Varejao (and I think they do), the Cavs could STILL spend over the lux and get $6 mil in additional talent. They will not have touched their MLE.

If they simply sign Craig Smith at the same price, they have Varejao and Smith (and let's say that's a little more productive, though some would disagree). It still isn't as productive as those two plus the $3 mil they have left from FA.

In other words, when you look at production:

Craig Smith + Jaric + MAX MLE Free Agent > Craig Smith + Varejao + $3 mil FA.

You can get a significant player for the MLE -- starter level talent. You rarely get that for half the money.

[loserX]

[quote="shrink"][/quote]

I do understand all that. But despite your implication, Cleveland is not actually desperate to trade Varejao for Jaric. There are a lot of other options, as we know.

So what I think will ACTUALLY happen is Cleveland will say, "gee, Minnesota are ripping us off, we can get a better deal elsewhere. We might be able to keep Varejao, Minny can keep paying Jaric $22M themselves, and we can spend our MLE on whomever we want anyway. Or we can trade Varejao and expirings for better players. Either we get a good deal or Minny can go get stuffed."

If the package offered is Jaric and Smith S&T, it's not going to bring back an expiring and Varejao, nor should it. As I said before, replacing Varejao with Damon Jones makes it a lot closer to fair, and since it's MINNESOTA who should be worried about their $ more than talent, it has an advantage for them too.

[Heart-of-RnR]

One thing I didn't think about in all this:

Varejao currently has BYC status; something that will stick with him until a year after he signed his contract, iirc. That means that he will stay BYC through half of December '08.

[shrink]

Let me simplify. Of these three options that all cost the same, which provides CLE the most production?

1. Varejao + MLE MAX vet? (i.e. -- no trade)

2. Jaric + Craig Smith + MLE MAX vet? (trade)

3. Varejao + Craig Smith S+T for $3 mil + $3 mil minor FA for rest of their MLE (no trade but two FA's from the MLE)


Personally, I think the answer is #2.

Incidentally, I'm assuming any production difference between Snow and Buckner is negliglible. However, remember that while you keep pointing out the CLE gives up an expiring (Snow at $7 mil), they get back an expiring (Buckner $4 mil) as well. This is like giving up a $3 mil expiring, and using it to sign Craig Smith, while maintaining the full MLE.

I don't disagree with your point that there might be a better deal out there. Who knows? I know I don't personally give a rip about Varejao, and I am worried about his contract. However, the deal as it stands, to me, makes sense for CLE both financially and in terms of production.

[shrink]

One thing I didn't think about in all this:

Varejao currently has BYC status; something that will stick with him until a year after he signed his contract, iirc. That means that he will stay BYC through half of December '08.

Excellent point. With Snow and Buckner involved though, the trade still works under Varejao's BYC status.

[Smooth32]

I'd honestly take #3... Re-sign Devin Brown with 3 mil and I'm set... I'd rather have Brown over Jaric anyway... Plus we get Smith? Sure!

I don't think there will be too many FA's that will sign for the max, that will be worth the Cavs money, since most will be ETO's or RFA...

[DowJones]

I would really consider the deal that the Laker fan offered. Mo Williams, if he was ok with it, would be a great 6th man option off the bench because he is a scoring PG. He could still see a bunch of playing time...just coming off the bench. Plus the only "bad" contract Cleveland sees is Gadzuric. It would suck to trade 2 first rounders, but adding Redd and Mo Williams is worth it.

[Heart-of-RnR]

Keep in mind that the Cavs are very unlikely to trade Varejao unless they can draft a big man, preferrably a center, in June.

[SportsBoy]

Cavs wont trade their 2008 1st, they need it to replace Andy.

AV and Expirings for Redd...you can keep the rest!