From the Bill Simmons chat, which I agree with wholeheartedly:
The thing I liked about Doc during the regular season was that he tried to coach the same way for 82 games - he did a relatively good job sticking to a rotation, he built up confidence in the bench guys and he did a great job of cutting down the minutes for KG, Allen and Pierce in the final 2 months. Then the playoffs started and he coached each game like it had no correlation to the previous game or the first 82 games. He froze and he panicked. There's no other way to say it. We had 82 games to figure out the best 9 guys on this team and when they should play... and now it's Game 5 and nobody has any clue who the best 9 guys are because there's been so much overreacting and yanking around. That's not the coach's fault?
People can defend Doc to the end of time (or at least until a first round loss makes change apparent and necessary) but the bottom line is he's still the same guy who came in to Boston -- a great motivator who does well during an 82-game season where he can face a different team every night; but who chokes at the time when coaching is most needed (playoffs -- see Orlando, every year he was coach, but particularly v. Detroit in 2003 after going up 3-1 and watching as Rick Carlisle put little used rookie Tayshaun Prince on Tracy McGrady in Game 4 and Doc never finding an answer; and we all know the total Celtic meltdown in Game 5, 6 and 7 of the 2005 playoffs against Indiana -- which concluded with the worst home Game 7 loss in Boston's history).
It's still unlikely Ainge will fire Doc with a first round loss, but this is where the pressure will be greatest. So that's one silver lining. The real kicker here is that Danny was right about Doc for his first three seasons -- get a level-headed coach to help bring up your young players and build to a championship talent level.
Maybe the Celtics owe Doc a shot for dealing with the rebuilding process. He struggled through some bad years so he deserves at least one year with some real talent and a real shot to win a title. That year is this year -- and I can't see a scenario where anything short of an Eastern Conference Finals appearance -- a competitive appearance -- warrants keeping Doc in favor of dumping him for a true championship caliber coach.
And if you want precedent for replacing Doc, look no further than Detroit with Carlisle in 2003 -- Eastern Conference Finals appearance -- only to have Dumars realize the Pistons would need a better coach to put them over the top and hired Larry Brown; which got the Pistons a title in 2004.
But this all takes away from my main point...
Outside of the fact that a first round loss would put more pressure to replace Doc, probable losses in future rounds are going to be much more difficult than this one:
1) Second Round Loss to Cavaliers - A team stocked with former Celtics and LeBron's "too strong" antics would send me through the roof. Sure, the Wizards could still pull this one out too -- unlikely -- but wouldn't it be even more painful to lose to those cocky SOBs? Especially after the regular season series?
2) Eastern Conference Finals Loss to Detroit - Rasheed Wallace and Rip Hamilton heading back to the NBA Finals? That's enough to make me vomit. In the off chance that Orlando makes it here instead of Detroit, I could probably handle that on-par with a Hawks loss, but the Pistons? I don't know if I could handle losses at Auburn Hills without some serious intoxication.
3) NBA Finals Loss to the Lakers - As I've detailed in previous posts, this would be the worst of the worst. Kobe's pruning as the best player in the NBA. A championship win allows Phil Jackson to surpass Red Auerbach in rings. And it validates a horribly lopsided mid-season trade that only further propogates the belief that the NBA is rigged and Stern's office cuts corners to elevate high ratings teams.
A Finals Loss to the Spurs is also likely and though not as cataclysmic as a loss to the Lakers, the sting of Tim Duncan and the city of San Antonio getting the better of Boston again is too much to handle.
--
Right now, looking at Doc Rivers and his coaching performance, I think the second round is the most likely for the Celtics to drop out. And honestly, it might be better to happen then instead of the Eastern Conference Finals or a nightmare Lakers/Celtics Finals.
Doc has been overmatched by Mike Woodson and will be lucky to get out of the first round in 6 games (update: 7 games) and that's an absolute joke since there is no larger talent disparity in the playoffs this year. From here on out, the coaching and talent levels only get better -- Mike Brown has already proven he can take LeBron James and a bunch of also-rans past an ineptly coached Pistons, hate to say it, but he certainly can do it against an even more poorly coached Celtics.
I'll hold out faith, but the Celtics are a championship longshot with Doc holding the reigns. Hopefully Danny will have the balls to fix things before the window closes on Allen-Garnett-Pierce, which could be as early as next season.
