Realistic trading partners to get another 1st round pick.

[shrink]

OK, here's a totally nutso idea .. trade for Shaq.

Shaq + ATL pick (#15)

Jaric + Walker + Buckner

For PHO, this gets the bad smell of the Shaq deal out of PHO. It saves them paying his $20 mil in 09-10, so it gets them under the lux, which is important to Sarver. Jaric would fit well with PHO (especially if Grant Hill is done), and to be honest, Walker might even have his moments in that offense.

FOR MIN: Well, it gives us a pick and a prospect. Shaq makes $20 mil this year and next, but what's the chance he even shows up in a trade? How much of a buy-out could we get? If he does show up, even in his diminished condition, he'd be the best center MIN ever had, and maybe some fun for Al. Next summer he's a $20 mil expiring, so he'd have some trade value there.

I think its a bad deal, but its interesting.

OK somebody throw water on my face, because I've been giving this deal more attention than it deserves. I just can't find the flaw in what looks like such a stupid idea.

I can't see PHO saying no to this. It gets them under the lux next year, and even provides some wiggle room. They clear $14 mil off the cap, and at least an additional $8 mil in lux bonus and cap penalties .. probably more. $22 mil for a #15 pick is a deal Sarver probably can't say "no" to, particularly with so many other big contracts cemented in place. Jaric would actually be a very useful player for the Suns -- even mroe useful than he is here.

For MIN, I don't know what to think. How would you rather spend $20 mil next year? With Shaq and the #15, or on Walker, Jaric, and Buckner? I choose A. Shaq's second year also costs $20 mil, and Jaric costs nearly $15 over his last two. For us, that pick costs $5 mil (plus the pick's salary), and Shaq can play a little center the next year or two. At worst, he's a $20 mil expiring.

But what if Shaq doesn't want to come to MIN, and chooses to retire and go be a cop? If he doesn't get an injury exception (which I think would be a possibility), I have to think he'd accept a buy-out. Is $17 mil a year reasonable for a guy with his cash and opportunities? I think it'd be even less, but $34 mil total matches our salary commitment of the contracts we'd be giving out. If we get nothing from him on the court, we'd still get that pick, not lose salary, except wait a year until Shaq comes off the books -- and erase Jaric's final year.

OK, where have I messed up here?

Also, this deal would be even more appealing to PHO is it was a three-way, and Buckner's $4 mil exp went to a team that could provide PHO with a center that could fit in PHO's system. Any ideas?

[the_bruce]

Agree 100% for PHX's part.

As for MN's end its hard to say. I do agree getting shaq is of more or less no consequence to MN long or short term. If he plays ok, if he pouts and retires or demands a buyout at a reduced rate thats ok too. Or maybe he would be willing to play in a bigger market in a trade for a disgruntled starbury.

Swining buckner for a semi useful center for 4m would be hard imo, but I think if PHX was willing they could swing buckner + barbosa for a decent C. Maybe make it a 3 way? Heck I'd be willing to ship McCants for free just to get it done to PHX as a Barbosa offense replacement, but I think Jaric can do much of what barbosa for the team and provide better D.

Some additional things. Craig smith would look great in PHX imo.

For Centers:
Zaza @ 4m
??

[shrink]

I've been hanging out on the Wizards board (smart group of posters incidently), and they think that if Arenas and Jamison are unwilling to sign for a little undermarket, their owner would trade Etan + #18 for an expiring, and to be out of the last deal of his contract. They are sure their owner won't go over the lux, and the #18, while valuable, is even more additional salary.

One hitch would be that the draft is before the first day for signing free agents, so they might need to pick our player. However, if they can have handshake deals in place before the June 1 signing date, maybe they could do the same with their players on their contracts. Ask Glen Taylor!

$7.3 mil in 2008-09 for a pick now doesn't sound too bad too me. Supposedly Etan's heart surgery will have it working better than it ever has, and we could get a little use from him throwing his body around at center. WAS wants to move him because he and Haywood hate each other, and they don't have many other pieces they can move to get under the lux.

I could see a deal like:

Walker for Etan + #18 (+ Pecherov if they wanted the C-prospects's salary gone)

OR

Buckner + Craig Smith or Telfair (S&T) for Etan + #18

It provides less expirings, but probably enough to get under the lux. There was some interest in buckner providing a few minutes as a needed perimeter defender, but his real value is for the contract. I think Smith would look nice next to Haywood, but they aren't sure they have the PF minutes for him. One guy over there really liked Telfair, and there was no dissent or approval either way.

[deeney0]

I think it's a bad idea to eff up the 2009 cap space for a late pick. If one can't be found for McCants, the two seconds, or the future firsts, I'm content.

[Krapinsky]

The only way the Etan trade works is if he comes in, starts, does very well, and improves his trade value so much that we can move him for an expiring at the end of the year.

I don't think that's an impossibility, but I'm not taking that chance unless Jaric is moved in a separate deal.

I also don't see a big difference this year between the players that will be available at 18 and some that will be available in the early second.

[john2jer]

Couple different options including Denver. Karl wants the team to be more disciplined. They need to start playing defense. Both could be helped if he had any form of an actual offense other than two guys just jacking up shots. Here's the ideas...

Walker/Jaric #31/#34
for
Martin/Kleiza/#20

Denver saves a ton of cap space, and gets a guy who would fit with Iverson in the backcourt. Probaby too much for Denver to give.
Wolves get a solid shot blocker, a great young prospect, and the mid-round pick to get a center.

Walker/Jaric
for
Nene/Hunter/Kleiza/#20

Denver gets the same, and saves a some cap space.
Wolves get two younger big guys, who aren't in Denver's rotation. Huge risk makes Keliza and #20 required in the trade. Probably too big of a risk.

Jaric/#34
for
Hunter/Atkins/#20

Denver gets the best player and a veteran versatile back-up or starter opposite AI.
Wolves get to take a look at a back-up center, as well as bring in a veteran back-up point guard, saving them from over-paying Telfair, and get the #20 on top of it.

I think I like the third one the best because it leaves us with the potential to move Walker and Buckner later in the season and I don't see Denver moving Kleiza.

C - Hibbert/Hunter
PF - Jefferson/Madsen
SF - Gomes/Brewer
SG - Mayo/McCants
PG - Foye/Atkins

[the_bruce]

Walker/Jaric #31/#34
for
Martin/Kleiza/#20

Denver saves a ton of cap space, and gets a guy who would fit with Iverson in the backcourt. Probaby too much for Denver to give.
Wolves get a solid shot blocker, a great young prospect, and the mid-round pick to get a center.

Taking back Kmart is way to expensive basicly an extra 7m per season for 2 seasons over jaric. A kmart trade for only the 20th pick as compensation puts the nuggets in a posiition where they could rebuild quickly. Camby and nene could probably fetch expirings leaving the only long term $$$ being jaric and melo post trades. All disregarding AI's contract etc.

I actually think buckner + jaric for Kmart works after new salaries, but I cant imagine a package Id jump at....It'd need to be this pick, a future 1st and 3m cash to make it equitable. ~9m in assets for ~15m in salary relief.

[the_bruce]

-= original quote snipped =-



OK somebody throw water on my face, because I've been giving this deal more attention than it deserves. I just can't find the flaw in what looks like such a stupid idea.

I can't see PHO saying no to this. It gets them under the lux next year, and even provides some wiggle room. They clear $14 mil off the cap, and at least an additional $8 mil in lux bonus and cap penalties .. probably more. $22 mil for a #15 pick is a deal Sarver probably can't say "no" to, particularly with so many other big contracts cemented in place. Jaric would actually be a very useful player for the Suns -- even mroe useful than he is here.

For MIN, I don't know what to think. How would you rather spend $20 mil next year? With Shaq and the #15, or on Walker, Jaric, and Buckner? I choose A. Shaq's second year also costs $20 mil, and Jaric costs nearly $15 over his last two. For us, that pick costs $5 mil (plus the pick's salary), and Shaq can play a little center the next year or two. At worst, he's a $20 mil expiring.

But what if Shaq doesn't want to come to MIN, and chooses to retire and go be a cop? If he doesn't get an injury exception (which I think would be a possibility), I have to think he'd accept a buy-out. Is $17 mil a year reasonable for a guy with his cash and opportunities? I think it'd be even less, but $34 mil total matches our salary commitment of the contracts we'd be giving out. If we get nothing from him on the court, we'd still get that pick, not lose salary, except wait a year until Shaq comes off the books -- and erase Jaric's final year.

OK, where have I messed up here?

Also, this deal would be even more appealing to PHO is it was a three-way, and Buckner's $4 mil exp went to a team that could provide PHO with a center that could fit in PHO's system. Any ideas?

I was thinking about this more and think it may be one of the better trades Ive seen this year. On our end the most it costs is 6m, and thats if Shaq doesn't accept a slightly reduced buyout. A 3m/yr less buy out and it is identical to our already commited money. Which essentially makes this a FREE Draft pick. We give up our 09/10 cap space but our 10/11 salary commitment is what 30m at most?

MN would have:
Brewer, Al, Foye, one of (Beasly,Rose,Mayo,Lopez,Randolph), one of (insert 5 here from PHX pick), potentially 3 1sts in 09

For PHX:
The first year...
The least they save is 9m (in year 1), or +4m with lux if they keep the pick. 9m-13m

The 2nd year...
The could potentially save 13m + 2m(lux), or +4m with lux if they keep the pick. 15m-19m

So a range of 24m-32m over 2 season. Is this even right? I saw a few arguements on the trade board about how great the Shaq expiring will be, but is a 20m expiring one year worth wasting 9m the year before? Sarvers made a ton of moves to stay fiscally conservative and I just can't see him passing up this sort of deal. I guess it depends who PHX things would bring PHX some rings for his expiring. An expiring 40 year old shaq will bring what to a core of Amare and a 36 year old nash? Anyone?