TK's 3 year plan for a shot at a championship

[tk76]

Not to be confused with BK's famous 3 year plan, but not all that different.

Premise:
-We have to concede that we will not catch Boston, SA, Detroit in the next 2 years and position ourselves to be ready when their window has closed. Likey elite teams in 3 years include Orlando, Cleveland and Portland.
-No single acquisitions this Summer will be enough to make us a championship contender in the next 2 years. Even if we got Brand we would not be talented enough.
-Other than Miller our core is 19-26. This means they should all be close to their prime in 3-4 years. Miller will be too old by then, so will have to be moved in the next 9 months.

Plan:
-Get the best YOUNG(under 26) player possible through cap space/trade this summer. The player should help the team (starter quality)but NOT be expected to put it over the top.
Players like Biedrins, Okafor, Smith, Childress, Wilcox, CV, Calderon, Hinrich, Deng, and Gordon are potential targets. These players are young enough that they at very least will be valuable trade chips in 2-3 years.
-Use this years's #1 por the best player available- hope they are a valuable piece in 3 years (even if only as future trade bait.)
-Get a good young PG and shooter to groom. Hopefully we can buy a late 1st or early 2nd for this purpose, or maybe sign a 2nd level FA like Mason Jr.
-Move Miller for picks or young players and a player that expires in 2 years(take on salary- move that player in 2 years when they are an expiring.) A developmental PG or back-up center might be a good target. Obviously if his expiring contract can be part of a biggger deal to land us a 30 year old or younger star then jump on it- but don't expect a miracle.

-Wait 2 years. In this time the team will be a borderline playoff team and will give us time to develop Thad, Lou, Smith, This years #1, Carney, etc into either valuable trade chips or key components.

-In 2-3 years make a big trade to acquire a vet superstar. One or two 28-31 year old stars like Shaq(to LA), AI, VC, Gasol and KG are available each year. These guys are traded in their prime, and usually cost a good young prospect or two, a big expiring and picks. In 2-3 years the Sixers should have top young prospect (AIG, LouW, Young) and hopefully they will have a big fat expiring contract (acquired when we dealt away Miller.)

We will trade away a young complementary borderline star for a vet superstar. If our other young players have developed this should give the team a 2-3 year window where our new Superstar is still in their prime and our young core now has good enough complementary pieces to get a championship.

Of course this requires luck and patience. We won't know for 2-3 years whether it will work out, and will not be all that great as we wait for our current young core to peak- but at least it gives us a shot.

[Fire BK]

Translation for those who don't want to read that much:

-Draft BPA at #16.

-Trade Miller for a contract that will expire in 2 years.

-Because we can't catch BOS, SAS, DET right now, wait 2 years until that contract we get from the Miller trade expires and flip it with one of our young (rising star) players for a veteran superstar, a la the LAL Gasol trade.

... I mean, it's somewhat compelling. I agree with the general premise that our window will probably open in a year or two... But I think this plan hinges on entirely too much conjecture. Also, it's too passive. If something tasty presents itself this summer or next, I say go for it. I believe there will be better ways to maximize our assets.

[tk76]

Good summary. I am not the best art being concise (ChuckS and me take the cake in this regard.)

The reason I think we have to be patient is that timing is everything. Even if we could get Brand or J.O. for nothing we would have a good team for 2-3 years, but I still see us falling short because our other young players will not be ready.

Maybe we could retool again in 3 years when Brand and Miller are past their prime, but it will be a big challenge if we are weighed down by their contracts (plus Sam will expire in 3 years.) More likely we would have to blow it up after a couple of trips to the 2nd round or ECF.

If we add another young player this summer and then bide our time- and then trade for a bonafide star in 2-3 years will will have the benefit of our entire team being in their prime for a title run.

[SendEm]

I have been envisioning that sort of direction. Our win/loss record is solely attributed to Andre Miller, with him goes a great deal of wins, but at the same time his inability to shoot from the outside and his advanced age make him a liability to a contending team. If we can make some wise trades to acquire some players that have been underused/used inappropriately then that's another way of increasing our potential. Childress is that sort of player. Roger Mason, Childress, Turiaf are the free agents that I would target this offseason with Lou Williams, Iggy, Willie Green and Jason Smith being on the trading block to acquire a legitimate player or big man prospect in return like maybe a Frye.

[tk76]

Sendem, I'd be fine with moving the players you mention as long as we get other good young players back. I would not want to move a 22 year old for a 28 year old 9like Mike Miller.)

These last few months have been fun, but a bit of fools gold. The team needs to continue to build young, and then hope to win the jackpot by tradinfg for a star in 3 years when our core has hit its stride.

I wish I could say who that star will be, but every year superstars are traded in their prime to teams ready to make their run.

I don't think this is the year for the Sixers to make that move- mostly because Thad will only be 20. At 22 or 23 Thad should be our best player, and better suited to be one of the stars we need to make a title run.

[STChaser]

I'm still sticking with my plan:

1) Trade Miller to Denver for JR Smith and their 20th pick
2) Draft Marreese Speights with our 16th pick (he's been compared to Al Jefferson for those that aren't familiar with him).
3) Draft the BPA with Denver's 20th pick (preferably either a PG with range or a Center)
4) Use our cash to target Josh Smith, failing that, target Childress, or Villanueva.
5) Outside of Miller, keep our core intact. That includes Carney and Lou!

Next Year's lineup:

PG: Lou Williams (Denver's 20th pick if we don't use it on a 5)
SG: Iguodala, J.R. Smith
SF: Thaddeus, Carney *(Childress, if Josh Smith falls though)
PF: Josh Smith, Marreese Speights, *(Villanueva if Childress falls through)
C: Sam, (Denver's 20th pick), Jason Smith

Why will this team will be extremely good? Simply put, we've addressed ALL our needs in one offseason; We've now got a SG in JR Smith, who can create his own shot and score in bunches, and has range. We've gotten our 6'10 big body PF who likes to play with his back to the basket and bang inside in Marreese Speights, we've gotten another athletic freak in Josh Smith to also play the 4 - and if we can't acquire Smith, we still have Speights at the 4 via our 16th pick and we can target Childress or Villanueva - two players who I believe can help this team out, AND we've STILL got Denver's 20th pick to use on either a future Center or a PG. Not bad.

Now for those who think that I'm being overly optimistic that our draft picks will pan out, I put complete faith in Tony DiLeo, who has a pretty decent track record, and Stefanski, who also seems to have an eye for talent. I believe these two can get us VERY good quality with the 16th and 20th picks - especially in a draft heavy with PF's and Centers.

STChaser

[IggyTheBEaST]

I have been envisioning that sort of direction. Our win/loss record is solely attributed to Andre Miller, with him goes a great deal of wins, but at the same time his inability to shoot from the outside and his advanced age make him a liability to a contending team. If we can make some wise trades to acquire some players that have been underused/used inappropriately then that's another way of increasing our potential. Childress is that sort of player. Roger Mason, Childress, Turiaf are the free agents that I would target this offseason with Lou Williams, Iggy, Willie Green and Jason Smith being on the trading block to acquire a legitimate player or big man prospect in return like maybe a Frye.

im confused, did you just say youd trade Lwill or Iggy for Frye?

[SendEm]

-= original quote snipped =-



im confused, did you just say youd trade Lwill or Iggy for Frye?

Without a shadow of a doubt.... This is of course tied into the free agent acquisition of Childress...

[tk76]

STC- i like much of you plan, as it does continue to build on the idea of a young athletic core.

The only thing that worries me is that your plan gets us picks but no expiring contracts. The team you propose woould still be a star (or more) away from ever being a contender.

We need a combination of a big expiring (or cap space), young prospects and future #1's to get a star. Your plan works if somehow we get in the Miller deal a player who expires in 2-3 years.

[steveb21]

Please allow me to shorten that by by a year.

Keep Andre Miller at all costs. He means more to this team than just stats and he can probably play at the same level for the next 4 years.

Trade the #16, Utah's pick from the Korver trade and some combination of our "energy" players like Willie Green, Reggie Evans, etc for a good young PF that can step in and start right away. I would target someone like Brandan Wright, Josh Smith, Beidrins or maybe Wilcox. Keep your eyes on Toronto because it's said that Bosh isn't really happy.

Use our cap space to strengthen our bench. We need a good backup Center. We also need someone who can hit the outside shot and stretch a defense.

Lastly, keep this team together. Chemistry goes a long way towards building a contender.

[tk76]

Ed needs to decide whether this team will be ready to contend while Miller is still at his peak. he expires next year, and even ignoring his talent, his expiring contract could be used in a trade to build on our core.

If Ed thinks we are just one or two players away then he needs to act fast before Miller declines. I think Young will be our best current player, but don't think he will be anywhere near his prime for at least 2-3 more years. Miller certainly will be slowing down 3 years from now. That is why I don't see Miller as part of the answer.

[The Sixer Fixer]

I think we could easily make things happen quicker than 3 years. Heck, you can take the Boston approach and trade young talent for solid vets. When last season ended, do you think anyone expected Boston to have the best record this year? It can happen overnight if you find the right combination of deals.

I would not be opposed one bit to taking that type of approach too. I'm tired of saying "we need to rebuild and hold onto all these young players...in just 3 more years we will be ready...". I'd gladly take a window of 2-3 years where we are an elite team and a legitimate title contender vs. waiting 3 years and hoping by then we did things right. We have some very good tradeable assets that could be used. Granted Boston had a high #1 to use in the Allen deal and they had the young big to use in the KG deal, but between our #1 this year/next year, the Utah #1 in '09, AI, Thad, Lou, Carney, Smith and others we have a nice mix of assets to use.

If this team can add a legit PF things will change dramatically. Just look at the Detroit series...we would not have been starting a rookie SF at PF. We would not have been forced to use Sam on Sheed...Brand would been a much better matchup since he's not as dumb as Sam defensively. Brand would have commanded respect in the paint on offense and allowed AI and Miller to do more damage on the court without constantly facing double teams. Green would have been coming off the bench (hopefully). If you can get that PF, then add a legit 3 pt guy to help space the floor, this teams half court offense would be dramatically improved.

So do the following...

1. Find a way to get Brand, or another legit PF via a trade. Not someone like Randolph who only plays on one side of the court. Use those assets I mentioned above in addition to the cap space that will allow us to take a much higher paid player for a cheaper player.

2. Get a 3 pt shooter. It really need to be someone who starts at either SG or SF or at least a bench guy who gets 30 MPG. Someone who only plays 15-20 MPG would not have a big enough effect over the course of an entire game.

3. Keep Miller, Dalembert (I don't love him, but he's our only legit C option) and either AI or Young

Compare that to Boston's current team and we can't be far off...

PG - Miller vs. Rondo
SG - AI (or that 3pt guy) vs. Allen
SF - AI or Young (or that 3 pt guy) vs. Pierce
PF - Brand vs. KG
C - Dalembert vs. Perkins.

I'd take Mille and Sam over their 2 starters. Brand/KG is close and Ithink you could argue AI is close to the current version of Ray Allen. I'd rather have Ray (if trying to win now), but if AI impoves over the offseason, maybe the gap is smaller. Then you have the Pierce vs. our 3pt acquisition. Most likely Pierce still wins that easily, but who knows.

Boston has some OK players off the bench like Possy, Brown, Cassell, House T. Allen and Powe, but I would hardly consider that a strong bench by NBA standards. 2 of those guys (Cassell/Brown) weren't even there for most of the season.

Now I admit that in order to accomplish what I presented, we might need to deal either AI or Young. I would hope that we can get one of the pieces (the shooter) with our pick packaged with the utah pick and/or players like Smith, Green, Carney, but that may not be possible.

[tk76]

Even if we don't pick up anyone this summer, and loose Miller, compare those rosters, but compare todays C's with the Sixers in 3 years:

LWill @ 24 > Rondo today
AIG @ 27 might be = Ray Allen today
Young @ 22 might be = PP today
Star PF TBD < KG today
Sam @ 29 > Perk today

Our bench in 3 years should be good- especially if we add a shooter and if we could run Lou of the bench.

So basically it depends on if we can trade for a big name star in a few years. Again we need to send back a prospect or good young player, picks and cap space/expirings and get a litttle lucky. At least we will have a few years to wait for the right opportunity to come along. Shaq, KG, AI were all traded in their prime. Kobe was almost traded. We just need to be in the right position- position ourselves to get "lucky."

[kingofthecourt67]

Andre Miller's age isn't as big of a factor as it may seem. Most of his game is based on basketball IQ and good finishing at the rim. He doesn't need speed to succeed.

[tk76]

That should mean Miller will be in his prime maybe another three years- but its hard to imagine he would not have defensive issues as he loses quickness after age 35 (3 years from now.)

We don't have to move him, and I would love to give him another 2 year extension and put off trading him until his extension expires, but I doubt he would take a 2 year extension. also, his expiring contract this year could be the lynchpin in a big time deal to get a star since teams want expirings and he is our only one. Of course we can send some of opur cap space as a trade exemption, which is just as good as an expiring, but I assume we use our cap space to sign or trade for some young players like Childress or CV.

[kingofthecourt67]

If we trade Miller for a star, we better have a plan to bring in another PG because I don't know if Williams can handle running this team for an extended amount of time at this point in his development.

[freshie2]

I agree with a lot of the general thoughts, but am not as tied to Miller or a top level PG at this stage of the game. I like Childress and his versatility, but don't know if he's a legit SG. I would be willing to pair him with Iguodala and Young giving you two swing players who are versatile enough to handle the ball. Cash probably runs out if you do everything you need to in FA, but maybe you can do some kind of s/t to get him. Basic premise to make this seem less crazy...you need to defend and rebound at each position to play an up tempo game and usually those if you defend and rebound, you win.

OK...forget about Childress...

Still want to target Biedrens in FA...again, nice length and ability to defend and rebound from the PF spot.

Like the idea of targeting Frye (as we discussed a few weeks ago) and would be willing to see how close Miller and Evans would get you to picking him up...they've said they don't want to get any younger. Miller as the starting PG and Evans as a PF off the bench would be nice veteran additions and for sake of discussion, let's say you can work a deal to get Frye/Webster/Koponen/Lafrentz and maybe swapping later draft pick for this years #1 from Portland.

Draft pick...if you can trade up to get Westbrook with Portland's, that would be a move of interest. Again, a long PG who can defend the position. The Sixers pick...best big man available (Speights, Magee, Koufos, Lopez).

Resigning both Iguodala and Williams to reasonable deals...s/t if things get too out of hand.

Point- Williams/Koponen/Westbrook/veteran PG
SG- Iguodala/Carney/Green
SF- Young/Webster
PF- Biedrens/Frye/Smith
C- Sam/Magee/Biedrens and Frye can fill in as well

Losing Miller is tough, but the front line is much improved and you have nice size matchups at both swing spots. Defensively and rebounding they are very solid.

Difficult to do this without knowing what is actually a possible deal, but there's a quick stab at it.

[tk76]

Point- Williams/Koponen/Westbrook/veteran PG
SG- Iguodala/Carney/Green
SF- Young/Webster
PF- Biedrens/Frye/Smith
C- Sam/Magee/Biedrens and Frye can fill in as well

That would be a borderline playoff team, and lacks post scorers. On the positive side it is very young with tons of upside at every position.

That type of concentration of young talent reminds me of the Bulls 2 years ago. It could implode from a lack of leadership- but then again there are lots of good pieces that could be turned into more established stars through future moves. With a roster like that every team with a disgruntled star and looking to rebuild would knock on our door and try to trade for our young players.

[Dedicated_76ers_fan]

76ers send:
Reggie Evans
Rodney Carney
Willie Green
Jason Smith

Cavaliers send:
Ben Wallace
Dwyane Jones

Why for us: At only a cost of 4 million dollars for us. We acquire a 6 time defensive player of the year and one of the best weakside shotblockers in the NBA to pair up with Dalembert.

Why for Cleveland: To get better, they need an offensive upgrade at the 4. Reggie Evans plays with tenacious energy on defense and whilst not the shotblocker that Wallace is, he won't hurt the Cavs either. Willie Green and Jason Smith will provide for offensive off the bench and they garner a prospect in Carney.


76ers trade:
SG Andre Iguodala
16th pick in the draft

Bucks trade:
SG Michael Redd.

Why for us: Michael Redd is FINALLY that number 1 guy. Averaging 22 pt a game. Redd's 28 years old. But I wanna make a run now, **** later. Besides, Iguodala at his best is only a 15 PPG Guard.

Why for the Bucks: In the lottery for the 3RD Straight year. The Bucks need to concede that they are in rebuliding. And what better way then to get a legitimate 23 year old 2 guard known for his tenacious D.(Yes, I said 2 guard).


Dalembert
Wallace
Young
Redd
Miller.

That's just through trades. I love the starting 5 I've created. Dalembert and Wallace on the defensive end. Miller, Redd and Young on the offensive end. It's a complete starting 5.

[UptownPhilly]

Neither one of those trades make us better. In fact they make us much worse.

Ben Wallace = overpaid scrub

Who is Dwyane Jones?

Michael Redd sucks. Iguodala is the superior player. We also give them our first rounder?

Sixers pass.