GA will not stay if AJ goes

[Shanghai Kid]

Their is nothing more silly than the idea that Arenas is so influential that his teammates, who are grown adults, are controlled by how Gilbert acts. So Gil dictates their behavior and whether or they not act serious and professional. Righhht. Sounds like general Gil hate to me.

It's hard to fathom how everybody gets psychological to a point where they think they know the players on a personal level.

[Dat2U]

To this point, I remember the first time I saw NY hanging out with GA. My first thought was, oh God help us.

That's not a good sign.

---------

I totally agree about the influence on the younger players. If we want to grow NY and AB into CB/AJ types characters/leaders, having GA around doesn't help. GA send the wrong signal/example.

Yeah, we definitely wouldn't want Gil's work ethic and gym rat mentality to rub of on our young guys.

Plus Gil doesn't like to party like Nick @ Nite or Bought Snatch Blatche. We wouldn't want Gil to corrupt their fragile little minds.

[doclinkin]

I really just don't like the position the Wizards are in right now.

If we keep both Arenas and Jamison, and choose to keep Eddie Jordan, I just don't see us committing to defense the way we need to in order to be a championship caliber team.

One question though: your assessment of the defense is simply that the team just wasn't 'committed' enough? I'm not playing the 'right or wrong' game, but the Wiz pre-all-star defense was decent. Even suffering injuries we were hovering at the league average. Up from near last the year before. This despite even then having to use assistant coaches to scrimmage, and playing our starters 40 minutes a night.

With Gil and Etan basically out all season we had a 10 man roster. With a bench 60% raw rookies-- mostly unready for the first half of the season. Caron out for a key stretch late, and injuries to AD and DS2.

It's really tough to play all-out defense 40 minutes a game. I'm not sure where any team would have weathered that and still kept intense high-quality defense the whole year.

BUt until injuries mounted, there's no question that the team improved a ton on D. No question about it. Not an illusion. The team has shown an ability to play solid defense for long stretches and even win games with 4th q D. Most of our comeback games were credited to late Defense, even when our offense went cold. Our signature wins came with smothering 4thQ blanket-parties.

Remember too, this was our first year under this streamlined team scheme. Team Defense tends to improve with familiarity, both in the scheme and with the players. Communication is key. Injecting a wounded Gil to the team at the last minute, along with all other injuries, wasn't going to help.

Does the team have a perfect scheme and ideal roster for defense? No. It's best players are average defenders at best for 3 of 5 positions. But just don't forget, when healthy (-ish) we were a far better defensive team than we showed at the end of the year, when all were dinged up and exhausted. I just don't think the problem was as much commitment as it was attrition and battle-fatigue. Nor do I think it likely that the defense wouldn't improve if we had even a bit more experience by the rookies, and a little more depth.

Open question whether the addition of a healthy Gil and Etan would have helped or hurt the team on defense. Though as it stands a healthy Etan would've probably been better than a developing Dray, provided Brendan kept the starter's job and minutes. And it's a matter of debate how that would have affected Songaila. Never know.

[doclinkin]

It's hard to fathom how everybody gets psychological to a point where they think they know the players on a personal level.

I know. At least use the zodiac thread or something. Why, that's information you surely can count on.

[miller31time]

One question though: your assessment of the defense is simply that the team just wasn't 'committed' enough? I'm not playing the 'right or wrong' game, but the Wiz pre-all-star defense was decent. Even suffering injuries we were hovering at the league average. Up from near last the year before. This despite even then having to use assistant coaches to scrimmage, and playing our starters 40 minutes a night.

We peaked at 16. Peaked. Our worst was 24. It's always nice to note that we were, at one point, 16th, but it was early in the year and we evened out later. In the end, we finished 22nd with just a marginal improvement (per 100 possessions) over last season. Certainly better, just not so much so that I'm going to think we're going to suddenly become an average defensive team over the next season or two (which basically is our window considering Jamison's age). Injuries helped us and hurt us. Brendan was able to get more minutes with Etan being out. That was absolutely vital in us becoming a better defensive team (along with the Ayers acquisition). Gilbert being out probably helped us a bit (as you could see, we not only played at a faster pace when he returned -- our defense sucked more than ever, as well). Yes, we were forced to play Caron, Antawn and Antonio big minutes, and also forced to play the rookies more than we'd like (though still not that much), but in the end, I think Etan and Arenas being out helped us more than the big minutes logged from our starters. But as you said, it's really just speculation.

With Gil and Etan basically out all season we had a 10 man roster. With a bench 60% raw rookies-- mostly unready for the first half of the season. Caron out for a key stretch late, and injuries to AD and DS2.

As I said, I firmly believe that the absence of Gilbert and Etan helped our defense more than the rookies playing heavy minutes hurt it. It did take a toll on our offense though. There's no denying that.

It's really tough to play all-out defense 40 minutes a game. I'm not sure where any team would have weathered that and still kept intense high-quality defense the whole year.

That just seems like an excuse given to a bad defensive team. I know I'm probably being too harsh, but that's exactly what crossed my mind.

This season, Antawn Jamison played 38.7 minutes per game. That's only 0.8 more minutes than he played last season.

This season, Caron Butler played 39.9 minutes per game. That's only 0.6 more minutes than he played last season.

Stevenson played a meager 31 minutes per game.

Haywood played 28.

Daniels played 30.

These aren't really that big, so I think the whole "we overplayed our starters" argument doesn't really fly.

BUt until injuries mounted, there's no question that the team improved a ton on D. No question about it. Not an illusion. The team has shown an ability to play solid defense for long stretches and even win games with 4th q D. Most of our comeback games were credited to late Defense, even when our offense went cold. Our signature wins came with smothering 4thQ blanket-parties.

Agreed, 100%. I've said it plenty -- we played excellent defense in stretches this year. Against the Celtics, we played lock-down defense. Against Dallas, great defense. Against the Hornets three times, good defense. We CAN play effective defense, there is no doubt in my mind this is true. But we only play effective defense every once in a while. Never consistent. This is where I believe EJ's fault is most evident. I don't believe he holds the players accountable for their poor defensive effort like he should.

Remember too, this was our first year under this streamlined team scheme. Team Defense tends to improve with familiarity, both in the scheme and with the players. Communication is key. Injecting a wounded Gil to the team at the last minute, along with all other injuries, wasn't going to help.

I completely wrote off the Gilbert games when formulating my hypothesis on our defense. He adds a WHOLE 'nother dimension.

I do agree that familiarity does help though. I think we'll improve defensively next year, but not so much so as to make a big (or even noticeable) dent.

[doclinkin]

-Gilbert being out probably helped us a bit (as you could see, we not only played at a faster pace when he returned -- our defense sucked more than ever, as well).

Way I see it, Gilbert never came back this year.

He was essentially in a few late-season pre-season games trying to find his legs and role on the team, but was nowhere near 100%. He played pretty solid defense early on, even in a few of the early losses. Could he have maintained and sustained it? Well i wouldn't have thought Antawn had the ability to alter his game and play decent D, and he definitely made a turnaround.

And I disagree that the sole reason Brendan played was that Etan was out. That hardly gives B'Wood sufficient credit. I said in preseason that so long as Brendan is hitting above 70% from the FT line he will be playing late in games and heavier minutes. The coaching staff made it a point in the offseason to streamline the offense and build in a few sets to feed big Wood. This was part of the conversation they had when Eddie and Ayers made the pilgrimage to Norf Cafalack. And Haywood's offensive on/off points this year are up +5.6 (+4.4 points this year, where last year he had a negative effect, -1.2 points. Compare to Etan's -0.4 pts). The fact is Haywood put in the effort, came with a different attitude and it made all the difference.

Nah, given EJ's preference for veterans, the most probable negative effect of Etan returning would've been to stall the development of Andray Blatche. Etan played 31% of the team minutes last year, Andray played 42% this year. And defensively given a choice between those two, Etan wins out, for now anyway while Dray is still foul-happy.

Championship calibre? Okay, maybe not. Championships are won by megatalents, our only X-factor here is startling and remarkable development of our young talent, or Gilbert regaining and sustaining his form from December last year, getting hot in spring, not winter.

But I see nothing preventing them from improving and developing better consistency with experience in the system, improved youngsters, and (knock wood) a bit of luck & health.

[miller31time]

I agree, somewhat, about the Haywood/Etan argument. He certainly had his most productive and efficient year this season, but it's pointless to compare it to last season, Haywood's statistical worst.Last season was mired in the Haywood/Etan fisticuffs, dread-pulling incidents, etc. One minute, Brendan was starting, then he plays a few bad games, Etan comes in with his energy and swinging arms and suddenly, Mr. Haywood is sitting on the pine.

If we really wanted to do a yearly comparison, look no further than the 04-05 season when Brendan had a +/- of +12.4 (helping our defense nearly 10 points, and our offense 2.5).

Haywood plays best when he feels secure in his spot in the lineup. His free throw improvement was tremendous, but that is only part of the reason he had a career year. In my mind, when Brendan doesn't have to worry about losing his starting spot (and minutes), he plays a more aggressive game.

Regarding Gilbert's defense, it's true that he played decent defense in the beginning of the seasons. Problem is that it's such a small sample size that it's almost impossible to take anything away from it. Gilbert (throughout his entire Wizards career) has had games where he played good defense. It's not like it can't happen. We've seen it before (much like we've seen him have games where he'll run the offense to perfection, distribute like the best passing guard in the game, etc), but he's never done it consistently.

When Gilbert came back late in the season, his problem wasn't physically staying with his man. He did a decent job with that. His problem was the inane doubling down off of the offensive player, to try and help inside. When he does this, his man is wide open. He also has the tendency to get lost on defense, forget where he put the guy he was guarding, as that player gets a good look. These aren't physical problems, they're mental problems. More importantly, they're mental problems we've seed from Arenas each and every season.

[doclinkin]

When Gilbert came back late in the season, his problem wasn't physically staying with his man. He did a decent job with that. His problem was the inane doubling down off of the offensive player, to try and help inside. When he does this, his man is wide open. He also has the tendency to get lost on defense, forget where he put the guy he was guarding, as that player gets a good look. These aren't physical problems, they're mental problems. More importantly, they're mental problems we've seed from Arenas each and every season.

He did a decent job of staying with his man when his man was a wounded Wally Szerbiak, otherwise, no he had blown assignments all over the place, whether or not his man was the one who actually scored. But that's not even the point. The issue isn't whether or not Gil has had bad habits, he has, most worse than the one you cite, the issue is whether drilling in the new system from training camp on out would have made the difference.

The key benefit of continuity has to do with repetition and familiarity. As Eddie said before the season, not having a new starter at a key position meant that the team could drill the players in Defense without having to focus so much practice time simply teaching the offensive system. If Jason Kidd says it takes three years to process and understand it completely, better take his word for it. (Exception proving the rule being DeShawn who had played within a similar system in Orlando).

We started the year stuttering on offense because our defensive drills took up most of camp. It's not insignificant that the team reached as high as #16 in total defense considering how much worse than that they have been in the past. Caron and Jamison were both better defenders. The team as a whole was communicating. My suspicion is that Gil would have been a better defender than he had been in the past if he too were with the team the whole year. Especially considering the addition of a hardass to the bench to play the same role Poppa Gilbert plays.

Haywood and others, Eddie himself, referenced the influence of Randy Ayers, that it helps to have an extra voice to keep players accountable to their task. -- Look I've said since his first year that I thought Avery Johnson got too much credit in Dallas considering the team had twelve assistant coaches on staff-- But that's not evidence of poor coaching, the ability to delegate responsibilities and inspire the coaches as well as the players is significant. No one sneers at EJ just because Dave Hopla was able to coach up the players from the line or the outside arc. For the stretch of time that the players were healthy, the team was remarkably improved on defense.

In fact the ability to improve is all you can ask for. If a team, coach, player continually improves the ultimate end result is... Perfection? I see no reason why with this roster the team won't be better next year. No evidence why the coach would prevent the players from getting better. Ask Brendan Haywood.

(Not to restart the Brendan chorus, but you people really spend more time wiping a grown man's butt for him, jeez. Brendan improved not only in FT shooting but most significantly in leadership and self-accountability. I'm proud as he77 of Brendan, he seized the leadership role that EJ asked him to take over the summer. He was teaching the rookies where to be on offense, and was the defensive captain, calling our assignments, doubling and recovering faster than he ever had, telling people when to switch and where to be. More significant than his playing time, Brendan did absolutely everything that was asked of him and then some. He deserves more credit than : 'Well he wasn't really given an excuse to whine and throw a tantrum...').

But to the point of improvement: You think the rookies won't see more playing time next year? You think there's no chance they get better?
Eddie has re-tooled the offense to suit his best personnel with every new addition. If all players are back and healthy, with the rooks now battle-tested, you don't think he'll spend the offseason tinkering and tweaking to streamline this thing? To tune the engine of his system? And system is key. You can blow up a team any year, but you always have to start over with something new, usually a personnel change to suit the new coach, and a couple years of struggle at least.

Jerry Sloan has the ability to be a hardass and grow a team into his own vision because it's clear no one is ever going to fire him. Kirilenko can cry all he wants. You think there weren't thousands of Jazz fans who would rather swap out Sloan if it meant keeping a defensive triple double threat like AK47? (Picture these boards if that were Kirilenko in the Haywood position. Utter meltdown and apocalypse) Sloan has the ability to suffer a down year or miss the playoffs, take a few first round exits, never win a championship, because no matter how much complaining or player revolt-- the man will still be coaching next year. And more often than not, he'll carry the team to the playoffs. Which means he can make adjustments, take risks, adjust, be creative: these Jazz play more creative offense this year than the typical Sloan pick & roll to the death.

No one's gonna say Sloan is a terrible coach even though he's never won the whole thing, nor ever been bad enough to get a #1 draftee. The leeway gives him the ability to learn improve and adjust to the leagues' new offensive emphasis (in the regular season. Drives me nuts that they change the rules once the postseason comes around). But he wins because he has a system and an organization that has his back and builds to compliment the system.

Business-wise tanking to gamble on a high draft pick is a poor decision. You may be depressed that this team might merely remain good for many long years, but way I see it, if you stay in the game long enough and build consistent winners, eventually you get lucky. David Robinson may be out the year that Tim Duncan is available. Rare that Atlanta passes on a Chris Paul, Deron Williams. Rare that you have stockpiled enough talent that you can trade with a friend in another organization and land a Kevin Garnett. (And suddenly hapless and lowly Doc Rivers is a Coach of the Year candidate).

But the GM has the same responsibility as the coaches: You play to win the game. Put together the best product you can, even if -- like UTah, or used-to-be San Antonio-- the City itself isn't a top choice destination for free agents.

It's not a matter of being happy with mediocrity, it's just understanding the reality of the situation: stay in the game, wait your chance, opportunities are rare. Commit to a system as long as it works. Take the word of the scouts and players, take the evidence of a consistent top 5 offense, build to fill our weaknesses, grow from within. Then when the opportunity arises, move swift and decisive. But don't blow up the team and get in a funk just because you had an off year when your top stars were injured.

[miller31time]

Doc, I never much cared for the argument that our youngins will develop so much so as to make a significant change.

Why? Because every team in the NBA can say the same thing. There's absolutely no reason to think we're any more special than the rest of them. Yes, Blatche will most likely improve his defense. Young as well. Maybe Dominic might be able to take on a few minutes of valuable playing time per game. But these things aren't exclusive to our ball-club, which is a trend I see from most team's fans.

[nate33]

Doc, I never much cared for the argument that our youngins will develop so much so as to make a significant change.

Why? Because every team in the NBA can say the same thing. There's absolutely no reason to think we're any more special than the rest of them. Yes, Blatche will most likely improve his defense. Young as well. Maybe Dominic might be able to take on a few minutes of valuable playing time per game. But these things aren't exclusive to our ball-club, which is a trend I see from most team's fans.

It's true that one can expect to see a comparable amount of development among the youngsters on teams like Atlanta, Philly, Chicago and Charlotte. But the same isn't necessarily true among the leaders of the East: Boston, Cleveland and Orlando. They don't have a plethora of young athletic talent like the Wizards do. (The one exception his Detroit.) It's reasonable to predict that the Wizards will improve at a greater rate than most of the better teams in the East.

[miller31time]

It's true that one can expect to see a comparable amount of development among the youngsters on teams like Atlanta, Philly, Chicago and Charlotte. But the same isn't necessarily true among the leaders of the East: Boston, Cleveland and Orlando. They don't have a plethora of young athletic talent like the Wizards do. (The one exception his Detroit.) It's reasonable to predict that the Wizards will improve at a greater rate than most of the better teams in the East.

I'd counter that the individual improvement of Dwight Howard (Orlando) and LeBron James (Cleveland) will supersede anything our young guns can do.

[nate33]

-= original quote snipped =-



I'd counter that the individual improvement of Dwight Howard (Orlando) and LeBron James (Cleveland) will supersede anything our young guns can do.

Dwight Howard? Yes. He'll definitely improve in the coming years and that's going to spell trouble for the Wizards. I don't know about Lebron though. I think he is relatively close to peaking. He might hone his jumper a bit more, but I just don't see him getting that much better. He's already so good on the basketball IQ front that there is little room for improvement.

[miller31time]

I don't know about Lebron though. I think he is relatively close to peaking. He might hone his jumper a bit more, but I just don't see him getting that much better. He's already so good on the basketball IQ front that there is little room for improvement.

I think we're going to be saying this season after season (unfortunately), but he'll just keep getting better and better.

He actually has a few weaknesses in his game - mid-range shooting, 3pt shooting, free throw shooting, post-offense.