What does it cost to move up?

Post #1 » by **theBigLip** » Thu May 15, 2008 11:59 pm

I knwo in the NFL, Jimmy Johnson created a chart that is now Bible, giving a point system to picks in the draft and what it should "cost" to move up. I've never heard of anything like that in the NBA, so we get to just bs about it and give our opinions.

I think top 5 players should be treated as likely future all stars and immediate starters. We know it doesn't always turn out that way, but if you're traded up into this area, it should be treated as trading for a future all star.

Top 10 players should be considered near term starters and immediate rotation players. So if you're trading up to this area, it should be treated as if you are trading for a starter.

Top 20 players and the rest of the first round, it is sort of a crap shoot. Their is a tier difference, but many guys drafted in the 20s do as well as those drafted in the teens, especially late teens. I think moving up in these areas shouldn't cost so much.

With this in mind, who wants to trade with Detroit so we can get out of the #29 slot? :-)

GJense4181 · Post #2 » by **GJense4181** » Fri May 16, 2008 12:25 am

I made a thread asking what posters expect out of draft slots and all I got were smartass responses.

I expect the top 2 picks to be HOFers, the next 3 picks to be frequent (nearly perennial) all-stars, the next 5 picks to sneak into All-NBA teams (and all-star games) from time to time, and the rest of the lottery to be immediate starters.
As for the rest of the first round, I think you're pretty much just drafting for rotation players. In theory, every team can add ONE player into the rotation on a yearly basis. Players retire, get traded, leave as free agents, etc, so hopefully some 19-24 year old can become a top ten contributor on his respective team relatively quickly.
As for second rounders, I think the top half should be viewed as mere roster players, while the second half is more or less features fringe NBA players.

ponder276 · Post #3 » by **ponder276** » Fri May 16, 2008 4:22 am

GJense4181 wrote:I made a thread asking what posters expect out of draft slots and all I got were smartass responses.

I expect the top 2 picks to be HOFers, the next 3 picks to be frequent (nearly perennial) all-stars, the next 5 picks to sneak into All-NBA teams (and all-star games) from time to time, and the rest of the lottery to be immediate starters.
As for the rest of the first round, I think you're pretty much just drafting for rotation players. In theory, every team can add ONE player into the rotation on a yearly basis. Players retire, get traded, leave as free agents, etc, so hopefully some 19-24 year old can become a top ten contributor on his respective team relatively quickly.
As for second rounders, I think the top half should be viewed as mere roster players, while the second half is more or less features fringe NBA players.

Not necessarily, looking at some non-lottery 1st round picks from recent draft, there are plenty of star, decent starters and 6th men:

2004 draft:
15 - Al Jefferson
17 - Josh Smith
18 - JR Smith
20 - Jameer Nelson
26 - Kevin Martin

2003 draft:
18 - David West
21 - Boris Diaw
23 - Travis Outlaw
27 - Kendrick Perkins
28 - Leandro Barbosa
29 - Josh Howard

2002 draft:
23 - Tayshaun Prince
24 - Nenad Krstic
26 - John Salmons

2001 draft:
19 - Zach Randolph
20 - Brendan Haywood
25 - Gerald Wallace
26 - Samuel Dalembert
27 - Jamaal Tinsley
28 - Tony Parker

GJense4181 · Post #4 » by **GJense4181** » Fri May 16, 2008 5:35 am

^You don't EXPECT to have all-stars out of *every* first-rounder. You don't expect instant starters, either, or even 6th men.
You expect *rotation players* for your (keyword) team if it's not a weak draft and if your general manager knows how to draft.
I can find some stud second rounders for you, too, but do you think anybody knew they would turn out that way? Arenas? Boozer? Ginobili? Okur?

2004 draft:
15 - Al Jefferson-Was fat when he entered the league, took some time to get into shape. Nobody knows how he'll do on a good team.
17 - Josh Smith-Slid. Was lottery talent. Shouldn't count.
18 - JR Smith-I don't want him on MY team.
20 - Jameer Nelson-Can't stand him. He is 50% of Orlando's problem.
26 - Kevin Martin-Did you EXPECT him to be this good?

2003 draft
18 - David West-Hardly an instant contributor.
21 - Boris Diaw-Was a bust before Phoenix. System player, if I ever saw one.
23 - Travis Outlaw-Was *this* close to being out of the league.
27 - Kendrick Perkins-Wouldn't start on many teams.
28 - Leandro Barbosa-Could be a system player. See how he does without D'Antoni?
29 - Josh Howard

2002 draft
23 - Tayshaun Prince
24 - Nenad Krstic-Sucks now.
26 - John Salmons-I could give two **** about John Salmons.

2001 draft:
19 - Zach Randolph-Cancer.
20 - Brendan Haywood-Is above average in a league deprived of centers.
25 - Gerald Wallace-Did not work out for the team that drafted him.
26 - Samuel Dalembert-Has peaked
27 - Jamaal Tinsley-Injury prone and a fool. Holds Indiana back.
28 - Tony Parker

Pleasant surprises are wonderful, but they're exactly that: surprises.

Malinhion · Post #5 » by **Malinhion** » Fri May 16, 2008 2:32 pm

That's because basketball drafts are much shorter, and the talent is year-specific. Trading into the top 2 this year would be the equivalent of trading into the top 5 in 2003.

andyhop · Post #6 » by **andyhop** » Sat May 17, 2008 5:28 am

Aaron Barzilai did an article on 82Games about the relative value of draft picks.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

The trouble would be converting it into anything useful in a game like basketball with such limited use of players, where one great player is better than 2 good players even if their combined production is the same.

Post #7 » by **gswhoops** » Sun May 18, 2008 8:51 pm

All I'm interested in is how much it will cost for the Warriors to move up from #14 to wherever Kevin Love is projected to go.

Post #8 » by **pillwenney** » Mon May 19, 2008 7:11 am

Malinhion wrote:That's because basketball drafts are much shorter, and the talent is year-specific. Trading into the top 2 this year would be the equivalent of trading into the top 5 in 2003.

Bingo. You can talk about year by year, but the bottom line is that each year is talent specific. The #1 picks in 03 or 07>>>>>>>>>>>>>the #1 pick in 06, and that's not just talking with hindsight.

chrbal · Post #9 » by **chrbal** » Mon May 19, 2008 6:09 pm

theBigLip wrote:
With this in mind, who wants to trade with Detroit so we can get out of the #29 slot?

29 is not really a bad spot for the Pistons. Stuckey was a good mid 1st pick, but Dumars is really good at finding guys late in the 1st (Tayshaun, Jason, and Arron).

Besides; 1, someone always slips in the draft for some unexplainable reason. And 2, The Pistons only really need PFs and Centers. Like a 6'10"+, 250lb+ guy. So to get any good one, you'd have to move up into the lottery. Anyone from really 15 on, is a crap shoot.

So basically, what i'm saying is I don't want Dumars to move up to say 19 and get Jason Thompson, when I don't think hes any better then someone you could pick at 29.

Post #10 » by **theBigLip** » Mon May 19, 2008 6:16 pm

chrbal wrote:-= original quote snipped =-
And 2, The Pistons only really need PFs and Centers. Like a 6'10"+, 250lb+ guy. So to get any good one, you'd have to move up into the lottery. Anyone from really 15 on, is a crap shoot.

I like the idea of getting a PF or center, but at #29 it is limited.

Somewhere around #20
- JaVale McGee
- Marreese Spreights
- Robin Lopez
- Roy Hibbert (ugh)

Somewhere around #30
- Jason Thompson
- Alexis Ajinca
- Ante Tomic
- JJ Jickson

I'd much rather choose from that first group.

Post #11 » by **theBigLip** » Mon May 19, 2008 6:22 pm

andyhop wrote:Aaron Barzilai did an article on 82Games about the relative value of draft picks.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

The trouble would be converting it into anything useful in a game like basketball with such limited use of players, where one great player is better than 2 good players even if their combined production is the same.

Thanks! Good read!

andyhop · Post #12 » by **andyhop** » Tue May 20, 2008 12:18 am

theBigLip wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

Thanks! Good read!

No worries

The biggest thing you can take from the article and one of the others he wrote is that if you end up picking 6th you are likely in for a lot of disappointment.Over the last 20 years that has been the most disappointing slot to pick in for whatever reason.

The reason that there isn't any agreed standard value of picks in basketball is likely because whereas in the NFL you can find difference makers throughout the draft,giving weight of picks a value , in the NBA most of the serious difference makers were very high draft picks making it hardly worth the effort to work out that pick 23 is worth pick 28 and pick 40 or whatever because none of them are that likely to make a big difference to your franchise.

GJense4181 · Post #13 » by **GJense4181** » Tue May 20, 2008 12:37 am

FYI, the last eleven #6 picks.

Yi Jianlian
Brandon Roy
Martell Webster
Josh Childress
Chris Kaman
Dajuan Wagner
Shane Battier
Dermarr Johnson
Wally Szczerbiak
Robert Traylor
Ron Mercer

Post #14 » by **theBigLip** » Tue May 20, 2008 6:35 pm

andyhop wrote:-= original quote snipped =-

The reason that there isn't any agreed standard value of picks in basketball is likely because whereas in the NFL you can find difference makers throughout the draft,giving weight of picks a value , in the NBA most of the serious difference makers were very high draft picks making it hardly worth the effort to work out that pick 23 is worth pick 28 and pick 40 or whatever because none of them are that likely to make a big difference to your franchise.

Good point. I guess the second round is best used for stashing guys overseas and see if they develop (Okur, Krystic, etc). Not a lot of value in them.