Wages of Wins: Allen's not the problem, it's Pierce and Powe

Rocky5000 · Post #1 » by **Rocky5000** » Thu May 22, 2008 12:09 am

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/05/20/ ... he-finals/

According to the analysis by the wages of wins guys, we can attribute our struggles during the post season more to the play of Leon Powe and Paul Pierce than to that of Ray Allen. Both of these guys have seen their wins scores drop off more severely than Ray. If Paul and Powe return to form it will benefit us much more than Ray getting his shot back.

I think Pierce has really turned his game around in the last two games and seems to be out of his funk. Correspondingly, we've played much better as a team.

I haven't heard anyone discussing Powe, but he's really been struggling so far to get rebounds and put points in. I think part of it is a lack of playing time, but he doesn't seem to be as successful shooting or drawing FTs.

Do you think these guys are on to something?

JCizzle · Post #2 » by **JCizzle** » Thu May 22, 2008 12:24 am

No, not really. Paul was playing really well on the defensive end for the majority of the last series. When needed, he took over offensively. Ray has been missing open jumpers and just in a general funk. I suppose everyone can have their own opinions though. All I know is we need Ray to hit open 3s if we want to advance.

grantlongforpresident · Post #3 » by **grantlongforpresident** » Thu May 22, 2008 12:45 am

uggh. people abuse statistics... especially given such a small sample size.

My advice is watch the games and you won't need statistics.

RoyHobbs · Post #4 » by **RoyHobbs** » Thu May 22, 2008 1:22 am

We're up 1-0 in the ECF. As of right now, there is no problem.

Scalamental · Post #5 » by **Scalamental** » Thu May 22, 2008 2:06 am

Yes Leon Powe is the reason for our struggles... :crazy:

GuyClinch · Post #6 » by **GuyClinch** » Thu May 22, 2008 2:14 am

Rather then dictating nonsense to us - the Wages of Win people should recheck their statistical model.

Pete

GonzoLays · Post #7 » by **GonzoLays** » Thu May 22, 2008 2:20 am

BWAHASHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAH

wait

BWHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA

Statistic nerds....you got to love'em.

AlCelticFan · Post #8 » by **AlCelticFan** » Thu May 22, 2008 2:32 am

Amazing how smart people can do such STUPID things sometimes.

Post #9 » by **Bleeding Green** » Thu May 22, 2008 3:46 am

Well, Powe has fallen off a ton in the playoffs. Seems like a valid argument.

GuyClinch · Post #10 » by **GuyClinch** » Thu May 22, 2008 5:33 am

No it doesn't because Powe hasn't played that much...but its a little better (but not much) then the first argument. Wages of win stinks - it has suspect validity.

What they REALLY should say is that PP and Powe score low on the wages of win statistic. The leap from that to - PP and Powe is hurting the team is something they haven't established.

Heck I am not even sure its as good as your EPA mileage in your car for being on the mark. (But I hear the 2008 numbers are slightly better) The EPA is trying to fix their model.

Pete

Gomes3PC · Post #11 » by **Gomes3PC** » Thu May 22, 2008 6:07 am

Powe is playing poorly because the minutes he usually got were when KG was resting for 18 MPG. Now that Garnett is playing 40-44 minutes, there's little or no time for Powe to get in there. So if you want to see more Powe, expect less KG. I for one don't want that.

As for Pierce, I think he played mediocre in the Hawks series and terrible the first 3-4 games in the Cavs series. He seemed afraid to take it to Lebron and only got going when Pavlovich guarded him. The last three games of the Cavs series and this first one with Detroit though he has been phenomenal. More than made up for the first 10 games of mediocrity.

If Ray Allen can do the same thing and wake up I will be just as happy. And by 'wake up' I mean shoot for 15 PPG. He doesn't have to pour in 20, but getting a couple treys and knocking down 15 footers isn't too much to ask from Jesus.