The summer of my discontent

[evildallas]

Through the various media reports and rumors, I see writing on the wall and some of it is good and some of it is bad. I thought I would put down my expectations in a post so I can reflect back in October and see how close I was.

GM - Billy Knight is gone, which I think is good, but under rumors of a hands-on ownership group by committee no really good candidate would see this as a tremendous opportunity. As such I see us settling for someone with ties to the team who won't shake things up. That sounds like Chris Grant to me.

Coach - At least part of ownership seems to want Woodson back. Woodson probably wants a contract of at least 3 years in length. I'm sensing a compromise of a 2 year deal.

Rest of coaching staff - I sensing some turnover here as the 2 coaches who were pressed into sticking are probably gone. The only enticement we have for recruiting replacements is there's only so many pro-level jobs available. I don't see the investment in coaching that the still relatively young team needs to develop top flight players.

Draft - Without any picks, I see the team doing minimal investment in research this off season. It's easier and cheaper to just sit it out. I think it will be a sad miss of an opportunity because late firsts and second rounders can be routinely purchased or acquired by trading future picks. This draft strikes me as be very deep on contributors if you draft well and we could use that upgrade on our bench.

Restricted free agents - I see the team willing to match offers for Josh Smith and Josh Childress, but I don't think it will wind up being necessary. Smith will be resigned at a near max price after not getting a full max offer sheet. Childress will get signed for just above the MLE.

Extensions - Nothing. Marvin will not get an extension this summer and the team will approach him like they did the Joshes with a show me attitude. It's just too hard to agree on a long term price with a player who's so young and still unproven (either good or bad). Mike Bibby also won't be extended as he hasn't been healthy enough to command as much salary as he would like.

Free agency - The only addition we make is David Andersen and he'll be good. We just won't have room (cap wise) to make any more additions except maybe a couple of league minimum guys.

Trades - Nothing. The temptation to see what Bibby and Marvin can do with 1 more year will prevent moving either of our biggest chips. Zaza's expiring deal is interesting, but there just won't be anything out there that he'd fetch that is seen as an upgrade.

Speedy - I expect Speedy to want to make another attempt at returning, but not be able to contribute. I don't see the much desired retirement because it would mean closing the door on hope for him which is hard for any athlete to do.

I expect Mario West, Jeremy Richardson, and Solomon Jones to all be with the team next year, but with Mike Woodson still in charge their actual minutes on the court will still be sporadic at best.

Not a very exciting summer and thus my discontent. I see us starting next season almost exactly where we left off and hoping that adding 1 player and additional experience will result in greater accomplishments. It is understandable. Change is risky. You might make a mistake. However playing it safe rarely gets the brass ring either.

That's how I see the future on 5/22/2008. I plan to look back in 5 months like a little time capsule. Feel free to add your expectations into this time capsule thread.

[killbuckner]

I think its pretty crazy to think that nothing will get done until you see who the GM is. If its a stats based guy then I bet there is quite a bit of turnover to clear some of the players who's reputations outstrip their statistical production.

[conleyorbust]

I think its pretty crazy to think that nothing will get done until you see who the GM is. If its a stats based guy then I bet there is quite a bit of turnover to clear some of the players who's reputations outstrip their statistical production.

Who do you consider to be part of this dubiuos classification?

[killbuckner]

I think that Law, Bibby, and Marvin would all be shopped heavily. I think that a GM would listen to offers on Horford just because his trade value right now would be really high and unless he makes major strides on offense next season his value would go down relatively quickly. (I don't think that Horford would get moved at all- his offense did improve once the Hawks had an actual PG, but a stats GM would certainly listen to see if someone would overpay) A stats guy would likely be a little leery of giving near max dollars to Josh Smith but from the PR standpoint I just don't think the Hawks can afford to let him go unless someone with more star power is coming back.

[tontoz]

GM - Billy Knight is gone, which I think is good, but under rumors of a hands-on ownership group by committee no really good candidate would see this as a tremendous opportunity. As such I see us settling for someone with ties to the team who won't shake things up. That sounds like Chris Grant to me.

I think you are probably right about this and the inevitable trickle down effect. it is hard to be optimistic considering the rumor that they were actually looking to resign Knight before he stepped down voluntarily.

On the plus side I am sure by the trade deadline Bibby be completely exposed and any GM with a lick of sense will be shopping him.

As far as offseason moves go i am optimistic about Andersen and i think there are some guys we could bring in as shooters off the bench that could be a big help. But if we resign Childress we won't really have the money or the minutes for them.

Retaining Woody and resigning Childress would show me a commitment to mediocrity.

[saloonyk8]

I think ANY new GM will be willing to move Marvin. BK had a love affair and probably thought way too much about how good he is.

The biggest question is if we're going to get a legit GM or if Billy King is the only one left to say yes at the end of the day...

I think a legit GM and ownership excited by the postseason can lead to the following: resign Josh Smith, new coach, sign Anderson, and trade Bibby/Marvin for Kaman/Redd/Melo/something like that. That's my mental homerun.

[conleyorbust]

I think that Law, Bibby, and Marvin would all be shopped heavily. I think that a GM would listen to offers on Horford just because his trade value right now would be really high and unless he makes major strides on offense next season his value would go down relatively quickly. (I don't think that Horford would get moved at all- his offense did improve once the Hawks had an actual PG, but a stats GM would certainly listen to see if someone would overpay) A stats guy would likely be a little leery of giving near max dollars to Josh Smith but from the PR standpoint I just don't think the Hawks can afford to let him go unless someone with more star power is coming back.

Yeah. The only guys who were statistically impressive (a good PER AND +/-) were Joe and Josh S. For that reason I'm pretty much open to moving anyone else if we can... I'm open to moving either one of them as well, we'd just need to make sure we would be bringing in a player that could have an even greater impact on our team.

[evildallas]

You know from my other posts that I am for shopping Marvin and Bibby hard this summer as well as some other moves, but I see a team afraid to make a mistake and lose their momentum (as wee as it may be). They're (owners) talking about retaining a piss poor coach because of 3 good games and a sense of fairness to see what he can do with this roster. I read how important this GM search is to the team, but I also read stuff that makes me think it is an undermined position. I get the vibe that ownership wants to make the decisions more than just hiring the guy to make the decisions. And it isn't just an owner, it's a group of owners which means some difference of opinion and slowness to reach consensus of opinion. Crazy or not, it's these observations that make me able to lay down my prediction ahead of the GM hire. I just don't see the next GM as powerful as the last one started out.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope for bold decisive moves, but as I said I'm seeing indicators of the opposite and that's why I made the predictions in the my post.

[conleyorbust]

You know from my other posts that I am for shopping Marvin and Bibby hard this summer as well as some other moves, but I see a team afraid to make a mistake and lose their momentum (as wee as it may be). They're (owners) talking about retaining a piss poor coach because of 3 good games and a sense of fairness to see what he can do with this roster. I read how important this GM search is to the team, but I also read stuff that makes me think it is an undermined position. I get the vibe that ownership wants to make the decisions more than just hiring the guy to make the decisions. And it isn't just an owner, it's a group of owners which means some difference of opinion and slowness to reach consensus of opinion. Crazy or not, it's these observations that make me able to lay down my prediction ahead of the GM hire. I just don't see the next GM as powerful as the last one started out.

I hope I'm wrong. I hope for bold decisive moves, but as I said I'm seeing indicators of the opposite and that's why I made the predictions in the my post.

I agree, looks like the ownership group has a low knowledge of bball or low expectations.

[killbuckner]

dallas- I have been the biggest critic of the ASG on these boards, I still firmly believe that the team would have been better off with Belkin. But I am just not willing to make the jump to say that because they weren't giving BK free reign that they will micromanage a competent GM.

[CWell]

MANNNNN I can't wait till summer league.Acie should tear it up.

I hope our starting lineup would be

PG:Law
SG:West
SF:Richardson
PF:Jones
C:Horford

[Rip2137]

Who are these "stats" guy GM's of which kB speaks? I know there are some bad GM's but none are so bad that you would consider them "stat" guys.

[killbuckner]

Presti, Morey, the new younger generation of "moneyball" GM's. Guys like that that lean more heavily on the statistical analysis rather than so many former players who rely more on the traditional scouting side and the "intangibles".

[evildallas]

dallas- I have been the biggest critic of the ASG on these boards, I still firmly believe that the team would have been better off with Belkin. But I am just not willing to make the jump to say that because they weren't giving BK free reign that they will micromanage a competent GM.

I don't share your opinion of Belkin, but I hope you're right about ownership not micromanaging a competent GM. I still fear the signs of micromanagement will prevent hiring that competent GM.

I stand by my melancholy opinion and in 5 months I hope I look back and shake my head at my silly lack of faith (because I already have my season ticket for next year).

BTW, even in the my summer of discontent I see us as a playoff team (6th-8th seed) with those simple moves and health. Maybe I'll post my dream summer because it would be a lot more exciting.

[JoshB914]

A realistic goal next year is around 45 wins with a relatively similar team. I don't think it would be smart for a new GM to stroll in here and immediately shake everything up.

[Rip2137]

Presti, Morey, the new younger generation of "moneyball" GM's. Guys like that that lean more heavily on the statistical analysis rather than so many former players who rely more on the traditional scouting side and the "intangibles".

Man, I gotta hope that we don't get a guy like Morey. It will be interesting to see what Presti does when his job consist of more than "clear money" but Morey...man...he isn't off to a pretty start.

[conleyorbust]

-= original quote snipped =-


Man, I gotta hope that we don't get a guy like Morey. It will be interesting to see what Presti does when his job consist of more than "clear money" but Morey...man...he isn't off to a pretty start.

What are you against? His trade of nothing for Scola? Drafting Landry? Hiring Adelman?

[killbuckner]

yeah- those 55 wins in the western conference shows he really doesn't have any clue at all.

[conleyorbust]

yeah- those 55 wins in the western conference shows he really doesn't have any clue at all.

He shouldn't have gotten Yao injured - that really hurt them in the playoffs.

[Rip2137]

His trade for Mike James, his signing of Steve Francis, his trade for Gerald Green, his trade of bonzi wells who would have helped them more in the postseason than a streaky Bobby Jackson...

With Scola, the Spurs were looking to dumb Butlers salary and he stepped up. I don't find that too impressive. Hiring Adleman? Seriously? thats a genius move now? A moron would have done the same thing.

The Landry trade was the most impressive thing that he has done.

Maybe you guys should look at what he actually done before giving him the credit that the previous GM deserves.

I wouldn't like a guy whose stats led him to think that Steve Francis and Mike Jame's infated salaries were worth taking on to make the team better.