How Much of Winning in the NBA is Luck?

[manchambo]

Watching the Bulls pull the 1st overall pick out of their butthole, and thinking about how every time Denver gets in the lottery it basically gets the worst possible pick, gets me thinking about how much of a team's fortunes are determined by luck. How many champioships would the Spurs have won if Robinson didn't get hurt that year and they didn't tank the season, resulting in the Duncan pick. Anyone suggesting any number higher than zero is an idiot.

Of course, you make some of your own luck. We didn't have to pick Skita--could've picked Amare instead. But even there, everyone in the world agreed that Skita should go high, and that Amare was iffy. Phoenix didn't pick him because they were geniuses, and lots of teams passed.

Now you have the Bulls, with a decent team, adding the 1st pick. Year after year this freaking team was god-awful, and never could get above number 3. Just makes you shake your head.

[MHZ]

Could've had Darko.

A lot of it is assembling a squad, which is certainly not luck, but luck's always involved to a certain extent. When it comes to the draft, it's often luck. Sometimes a #1 yields LeBron, sometimes it yields Olowokandi. San Antonio was lucky as **** to get Duncan. Keep in mind they were a perennial playoff team that suffered from injuries the year before and Duncan fell in their laps.

[denvers_finest]

There is certainly some luck invovled. As a long time Nuggets fan, I have always hated the idea of the lottery. The Nuggets were god awful for a solid decade, and had some of the worst teams (record wise) in NBA history, yet they have NEVER improved their position through the lottery, despite having the "best odds" numerous times. They have only remained where they should have been, or dropped down several spots. They have never drafted number one overall (in the lottery era any way) despite having the worst record in the leauge muliptle times, including the second worst record in NBA history.

I understand the point of the lottery system (stop teams from tanking), but you can't honestly say the Miami didn't tank this year, or Boston the year before, etc. It just seems to me that the teams that need the help the most often don't get it, while boarder line playoff teams (chicago this year, Portland last year, Toronto the year before, etc) beat the odds and get the help to catapult them to contender status, while the bottom feeders get left with table scraps.

Now, that having been said, I agree with MHizzle that the lottery (draft) is only part of what makes up a team. Alot of the Nuggets problems in the 90s stemmed from poor management decisions, be it bad FA signings (Wahead), bad draft picks (Raef over PP) etc. Obviously these things have little to do with luck, and in some cases can set a franchis back years.

[elbowthrower]

Yeah and you can use both Seattle and Portland as counter examples. Portland's landing Oden didn't exactly help them (yet), and even though Seattle was the second worst team this year, they're picking 4th.

We just effed up the Tskita thing. Not everyone was saying he should be picked so high. Remember at the time that D'Antoni was the Nugs' international scount and prior to that he was one of Tskita's coaches at Benneton Italy. Basically he was advocating the pick and Kiki fell for it. There was some talk about the Nugs taking Caron Butler with that pick too.

We have had a bit of bad luck though with injuries and top picks though. Not just Nene but also McDyess and Laphonso Ellis.

[MHZ]

The Nuggets have also traded a massive number of picks in the last 20 years, which absolutely kills them. Look at the uber-talented '96 draft, the Nuggets had traded out of the lottery.

[manchambo]

Could've had Darko.

A lot of it is assembling a squad, which is certainly not luck, but luck's always involved to a certain extent. When it comes to the draft, it's often luck. Sometimes a #1 yields LeBron, sometimes it yields Olowokandi. San Antonio was lucky as **** to get Duncan. Keep in mind they were a perennial playoff team that suffered from injuries the year before and Duncan fell in their laps.

But assembling a squad, by itself, will rarely, if ever, result in a championship. The recent exception I can think of it Detroit, but nearly every other team that has won championships has had that one player that wound up on their team because of the luck of having the right pick at the right time.

[lou4gehrig]

Denver could have drafted Wade instead of Anthony and traded for Shaq? Then they would have won the title...no?

You can build a winner if you want to. Utah drafted Malone at 13 and Stock at 16 and would have won titles not for Jordan.

1996 - Kobe was 13th pick (Denver trade for Mark Jackson and Ricky Pierce instead 10th pick).

1995 - Garnet was 5th pick. (Denver could have drafted Garnet instead of McDyess).

1997 - McGrady was 9th (Denver draft Battie instead).

1998 - Nowitzki, Pierce, Carter (Denver drafted LaFrentz)

2002 - Amare, Caron Butler (Denver drafted Tshikisvili AND Nene)

You can build a winner without drafting Duncan or Shaq. Denver has drafted poorly and made stupid trades like Kenyon Martin. That's it.

[denvers_finest]

Denver could have drafted Wade instead of Anthony and traded for Shaq? Then they would have won the title...no?

You can build a winner if you want to. Utah drafted Malone at 13 and Stock at 16 and would have won titles not for Jordan.

1996 - Kobe was 13th pick (Denver trade for Mark Jackson and Ricky Pierce instead 10th pick).

1995 - Garnet was 5th pick. (Denver could have drafted Garnet instead of McDyess).

1997 - McGrady was 9th (Denver draft Battie instead).

1998 - Nowitzki, Pierce, Carter (Denver drafted LaFrentz)

2002 - Amare, Caron Butler (Denver drafted Tshikisvili AND Nene)

You can build a winner without drafting Duncan or Shaq. Denver has drafted poorly and made stupid trades like Kenyon Martin. That's it.

Well, the draft is alot of luck. If teams knew which players were going to be all stars in the NBA ahead of time, you wouldn't have players like Manu and Arenas going in the second round. And players like Kwame going first overall.

Also, Dice over Garnett wasn't a dumb draft, at the time any way. Not sure how much you saw of the early Dice (i.e. before his knees failed him) but he was a fantastic player. Not saying that he would have been as good as Garnett if he stayed healthy, but he wouldn't have been too far off, and considering KG was coming out of highschool, that was the smart pick at the time.

I also find it interesting that you say "you can build a winner without drafting Duncan or Shaq" yet the only person that mentioned in your list that has ever won a title is Kobe, and guess who helped him get those rings???

[lou4gehrig]

Shaq was a free agent. ANY team in the league could have conceivably signed him.

Magic Johnson was drafted with a traded draft pick.

Larry Bird was drafted with a loophole that any team could have used.

Isiah Thomas was the second overall pick in 1981.

MJ was the third pick in the draft. Conceivably any team could have traded up to number two to draft him.

The only players who won titles with the top pick that no other team had a shot at were Olajuwon and Duncan.

Every other player was available in one form or another. It is luck to a certain extent, but also its the ability to evaluate and take risk. Prime examples are Kobe Bryant trade and Kevin Garnet draft.

[elbowthrower]

Shaq was a free agent. ANY team in the league could have conceivably signed him.

That's not exactly true. He wouldn't go to just any team, it had to be a big market and city he liked.

Places like Denver, Utah, Portland, Minnesota, etc had no shot at landing him.

[denvers_finest]

Shaq was a free agent. ANY team in the league could have conceivably signed him.

Magic Johnson was drafted with a traded draft pick.

Larry Bird was drafted with a loophole that any team could have used.

Isiah Thomas was the second overall pick in 1981.

MJ was the third pick in the draft. Conceivably any team could have traded up to number two to draft him.

The only players who won titles with the top pick that no other team had a shot at were Olajuwon and Duncan.

Every other player was available in one form or another. It is luck to a certain extent, but also its the ability to evaluate and take risk. Prime examples are Kobe Bryant trade and Kevin Garnet draft.

While I don't agree with everything your saying (I don't think "any other team" had a realistic shoot to trade up to number two to draft MJ or Isiah), i get where your going. But I think your basically supporting the premise that there is a good deal of luck invovled in winning in the NBA.

Wouldn't you consider Chicago to be "lucky" to have MJ fall into their lap at number three. Had Portland not drafted Clyde the year before (thus eliminating there need for a SG) they certainly would have drafted Jordan. Thats Chicago being in the right place at the right time, there was no skill invovled.

Wasn't LA "lucky" to have gotten the number one pick despite having won 47 games the year prior? They only got the pick because NO signed Gail to a deal, and league rules required a team to recieve compensation (in this case a pick) if one of their FA signed with another team. Certainly, neither LA or NO thought that the Jazz would be as bad as they were that year, and the pick would turn out to be the number one over all. Also, LA had to win a coin flip against Chicago to draft Magic (no draft back then, top pick was decided by the winner of a coin flip between the two worst teams). Everything had to fall perfectly into place for them to get Magic. They got lucky, and went on to win 5 rings with Magic.

Not that its all luck, but there certainly is some. You can take a chance on a player at number five and end up with Skita (out of the league only 5 years later) or Garnett. Sure good scouts help, but even the best scouts in the world don't get it right all the time. If they did, Jordan would have been in Portland or Houston, and Chicago might not have won a single championship.