Do GMs/fans/media significantly over rate draft picks?

[Wigginstime]

I am always amazed at how much people over rate draft picks. Last year most media outlets and forum posters nearly crucified Boston for trading their draft pick for Ray Allen (I know this was before the KG trade). Needless to stay I think Boston had the last laugh.

I am always amazed when you hear about a team offering a greater player for a mid lotto pick. I am even more amazed when I hear about teams declining the offer.

Last week during the supposed Carmelo Anthony trade rumors I was amazed how many fans shot down all trades that involved Melo for a high draft pick. I read a comment where one poster said there was no way Melo was worth a top 4 draft pick so I decided to look at who the previous number 4 draft picks were over the last 20 years. (In all of my research I ignored everything that occurred in the last 4 years because those players haven

[Malinhion]

No, because getting an impact player for cheap is a huge part of having a sucessful franchise. If Wade wasn't still on his rookie deal, they could never have paid Shaq and still filled out the roster with enough roleplayers to win a title.

[Red Robot]

Yes, I think fans place too much value on draft picks.

But there's also some value in the unknown. Every pick is a chance at a star. In the NBA, a good player has much more value than several so-so players. So a chance at a good player--even if the odds are low--is sometimes more valuable than an established player.

[Wigginstime]

I realize the getting am impact player is an obvious no brainer. Most of the top 5 2003 picks were no brainers (minus Darko). I'm not saying that you should ever trade a pick for a guarantee such as a Shaq, Duncan, Robinson, or Lebron.

Stil, ifl have you have a chance to trade for a player such as a Ray Allen or Carmelo Anthony or draft someone in a week draft pick and take the risk on a unknown such as OJ Mayo - what do you do?

[Atlanta Hawk Fan]

I am not sure how much more Ray Allen will give than what they could have gotten from someone like Mike Miller.

The deal certainly made sense for Seattle as well as Boston. Green will be worth more by the time Durant nears his prime than Allen would have been had he stayed in Seattle.

It really just depends on where you are in your development. For teams that are rebuilding or building from scratch, they are usually better off getting young players and hoping they pan out rather than trying to bring in veterans ala New York's Starbury, Curry, Randolph, etc. strategy. Getting a guy like Carmelo Anthony makes sense because he is young enough to be a guy to build around. For a team like Milwaukee, giving up the #6 pick last year to acquire Ray Allen would not have been very bright, IMO.

The whole idea is that while most picks don't have the downside of a Lebron or Shaq, the upside is too much to resist in the hopes that teams land the next Paul Pierce, Dirk Nowitzki, Deron Williams, etc.

[Blame Rasho]

Yes... everyone thinks that they can nail a stud in the draft.

[andyhop]

I realize the getting am impact player is an obvious no brainer. Most of the top 5 2003 picks were no brainers (minus Darko). I'm not saying that you should ever trade a pick for a guarantee such as a Shaq, Duncan, Robinson, or Lebron.

Stil, ifl have you have a chance to trade for a player such as a Ray Allen or Carmelo Anthony or draft someone in a week draft pick and take the risk on a unknown such as OJ Mayo - what do you do?

Take OJ because neither Melo or Allen are going to be the main guy on a title winning team and OJ could be so you roll the dice for the chance at a franchise changing player rather than getting a good one who you are going to have to pay 3 or 4 times more to.

[Flite]

Yes - everyone loves risks/theunkown/potential.

[_BBIB_]

Boston got the last laugh because they traded for a future HOFer in Kevin Garnett.

Carmelo Anthony is not even close to that right now.


Would I trade a top 10 pick to get him? Absolutely.


But I would not take him over the 1st pick in this draft.

[a-rod]

It's Ridiculous How Fans Overrate Draft Picks.

[Promezclan]

Yes, apparently Beasley will average 30 ppg.

[Benjamerica]

You can't ball Fans - GMs - Media into one group. Fans over rate draft picks because they are stupid. Media hypes it up because. . It's the damn media and they need stories. . . GMs, it's a toss up.

A good GM will know what to do with a pick. But there are tons of variables in the equation. How high is the pick, where is your team at, what do you need, how well have you scouted these guys, and so on.

I think picks are very valuable though as we've seen plenty of dumbass GMs ruin teams, make bad picks, bad trades. With all the disillusionment put out there by fans and the media some Gms seem caught up in the smoke n' mirrors too. . .I think a pick is a great piece to have. . to draft a top 3 guy. . or package up ina trade. .

It's all in how you utilize it.

[richboy]

There are a lot of fans that just love to watch there young players. Its not only draft picks but its really any young player on there roster with a little potential. Last year I heard Magic fans say they wouldn't trade Darko for Gasol and they wouldn't trade Ariza for Shawn Marion. Every board on this site has fans like that. Some fans completely overrate there young players.

Melo would go number 1 in this years draft. The only reason I wouldn't trade the number 1 pick for Melo is because of the trouble he has been in. If not for that Melo is definitely proven worthy of number 1 overall value. Especially in this years draft where Rose is good but a 15 and 5 combo guard in college that shot low 30% from 3 does not compare to a guy that was averaging over 30 points per game before the Iverson trade.

[_BBIB_]

Yes, apparently Beasley will average 30 ppg.

So Scoring is the only way to make an impact?

Guess guys like Gerald Wallace and Jamaal Crawford were better than Tim Duncan this year.


Beasley may not average more PPG than Melo but I have no doubt he can score over 20 PPG and grab 10-12 boards. Not to mention a few assists and a block and a half per game.


He without a doubt can be a more efficient player than Melo and he can do it in the post, which most teams would take over a wing any day.

There are a lot of fans that just love to watch there young players. Its not only draft picks but its really any young player on there roster with a little potential. Last year I heard Magic fans say they wouldn't trade Darko for Gasol and they wouldn't trade Ariza for Shawn Marion. Every board on this site has fans like that. Some fans completely overrate there young players.

Melo would go number 1 in this years draft. The only reason I wouldn't trade the number 1 pick for Melo is because of the trouble he has been in. If not for that Melo is definitely proven worthy of number 1 overall value. Especially in this years draft where Rose is good but a 15 and 5 combo guard in college that shot low 30% from 3 does not compare to a guy that was averaging over 30 points per game before the Iverson trade.

And you seem to do the complete opposite. According to you for instance Josh Smith and Al Horford have peaked and not even Josh Smith has a chance to reach star potential.


THere is no way that Carmelo Anthony would go number 1 in this draft over Beasley who outplayed him in just about every facet his one year in school and did it from the post.

[_BBIB_]

There are a lot of fans that just love to watch there young players. Its not only draft picks but its really any young player on there roster with a little potential. Last year I heard Magic fans say they wouldn't trade Darko for Gasol and they wouldn't trade Ariza for Shawn Marion. Every board on this site has fans like that. Some fans completely overrate there young players.

Melo would go number 1 in this years draft. The only reason I wouldn't trade the number 1 pick for Melo is because of the trouble he has been in. If not for that Melo is definitely proven worthy of number 1 overall value. Especially in this years draft where Rose is good but a 15 and 5 combo guard in college that shot low 30% from 3 does not compare to a guy that was averaging over 30 points per game before the Iverson trade.

And you seem to do the complete opposite. According to you for instance Josh Smith and Al Horford have peaked and not even Josh Smith has a chance to reach star potential.


THere is no way that Carmelo Anthony would go number 1 in this draft over Beasley who outplayed him in just about every facet his one year in school and did it from the post.

[M.Balla]

-= original quote snipped =-



And you seem to do the complete opposite. According to you for instance Josh Smith and Al Horford have peaked and not even Josh Smith has a chance to reach star potential.


THere is no way that Carmelo Anthony would go number 1 in this draft over Beasley who outplayed him in just about every facet his one year in school and did it from the post.

[_BBIB_]

-= original quote snipped =-



(picture)

So exactly how do you figure Carmelo Anthony goes higher in the draft that Beasley when Beasley's one year in school he was a more impressive player and as a prospect he gets it done as a more desirable player as a 4 instead of a 3?

[A.J.]

Of course, thats what makes the draft funny, and the GM's look like an idiot.

[0HeadAche0]

erm yes, especially for the gms though because if they trade away say the first pick and marcus beasley turns out to be the next kg or something then he'll be known as the gm that lost a HoF from their franchise.

so its just fear more than anything else.

[M.Balla]

Yes, Beasley outplayed Melo on every facet... He won the championship with Kansas just like Melo did with Syracuse...

Oh, wait... not that Kansas