#31 + #34 = ??? first rounder?

[shrink]

I started a thread over on the trade board, that I think now has enough value that the MIN board might be interested as well.

A number of rumors out of MIN say that McHale has lined up a deal where he trades both early seconds for a 1st, but none of them say WHICH team. Second rounders can be stashed in Europe, and not affect affect cap/lux space or roster size.

Do any of these fit your team?

1. Wants to stash top second round prospects in Europe

2. Win now -- develop down the road. No playing time for their 1st.

3. Salary concerns. Close to the lux or salary cap, or looking to save money for 2009 or 2010 free agency?

4. Roster size issues?

One rumor has McCants in the deal, so I listed up farther than I truly expect but when you look at the list:

Who do you think it is?

30 Celtics
29 Piston
28 Grizzlies
27 Hornets
26 Spurs
25 Rockets
24 Sonics
23 Jazz
22 Magic
21 Nets
20 Nuggets
19 Cavs
18 Wizards
17 Raptors
16 Sixers
15 Suns
14 Warriors
13 Blazers
12 Kings
11 Pacers
10 Nets

You can read responses at:

http://www.realgm.com/boards/viewtopic. ... 47&start=0

[shrink]

However, this is the post that adds to the discussion:

I cant imagine McHale being that excited about moving up to 29 (from 31). Maybe on draft night, if there is someone the Wolves REALLY like at 29 and they dont think that player would slip two more spots. Otherwise, MN might as well just keep 31 and 34.

Having said that, I dont know what the magic number pick is where it makes sense for MN to make the trade. Maybe 25 and below?

I like Barzali's math when he attempted to determine a pick' value based on each pick's history of win shares, PER, etc.

http://www.82games.com/barzilai1.htm

Anyway, he was able to use the data to determine the average relative value (compared to the top pick) for each pick.

For example, the 29th pick came out to a number 21%, so that CHI could expect to obtain a player with the 1st pick who is a 376% better player than DET could select with the 29th pick (1.00/0.21 = 476%).

Looking at the graph, its not hard to extrapolate that the 31st would have a relative value of 19%, and and the 34 would have a relative value of 17%. If you add those together, they'd be 36%, which would be the equivalent of the 19th pick.

However, I would say that's the high end. Five 29th picks might give you as much production as the #1 pick, but you can't put 5 29th picks on the floor with four other players like you could with the #1. Let's say rather than adding, you add 75% of both values, and you get 27, which is about the 24th pick.

Now, that's not to say that if the picks go for more than the #19-#24 range, it was a bad deal for the other team. These figures are for average production. Outside the top picks in the lottery, the variation in who turns out great and who is a bust is great, so a good player might be found at 16, 24, 31, or 34. Its a bit of a crapshoot. Moreover, on-court production does not take into account some of the most important points for trading for the seconds .. cost and roster size benefits. Paying for four years for the first round pick versus free stabs in the high second round probably increases that #24 a number of slots.

From my estimations here and drawing crude inferences some far better research, I'd estimate a value of about #21. It'd be higher for teams wanting lux or roster relief, and lower for teams that do not.

So let's say #21 (which actually is quite likely, since the Nets are win-now, and have an owner that's very sensitive to the lux). I've also read that the Nets don't want to have to pay for two firsts this year (they also have the #10).

OK, you college basketball loving, prospect studying draft gurus. I'm handing off the baton. Who's out there at #21 that would help us?

[Devilzsidewalk]

there's no question that the draft - especially once you get past the top 10 or 15 or so - will look NOTHING like the mocks, so its hard to say who'll be available, I'd say appropriate players for that range would be mostly guards and swingmen like Bill Walker, Ty Lawson, Brandon Rush, CDR

I wouldn't count on any bigs though like Hibbert, Speights, or Koufos. The other Lopez and Jason Thompson are possibilities though

[Krapinsky]

I would guess at least one of R.Lopez, Hibbert, Koufos, or McGee would fall that far. There's just not that many teams that need a C like we do.

[Devilzsidewalk]

probably not McGee, he's too physically appealing. A real hottie.

And Koufos and Hibbert showed top 5 skills early, can't seem them falling so far.

[Klomp]

A real hottie.

Only you would say that

[shrink]

Saving money screams PHO and the #15, but I don't see a good way to get up there.

I would not want to use the MIA future 1st, since that can be worth more on its own.

The two following don't seem to be enough:

#15 for #31, #34, BOS future 1st

Diaw + #15 (+ Tucker if they want to dump the salary) for Jaric + Buckner + #31 + #34

[nc21tarheels]

there's no question that the draft - especially once you get past the top 10 or 15 or so - will look NOTHING like the mocks, so its hard to say who'll be available, I'd say appropriate players for that range would be mostly guards and swingmen like Bill Walker, Ty Lawson, Brandon Rush, CDR

I wouldn't count on any bigs though like Hibbert, Speights, or Koufos. The other Lopez and Jason Thompson are possibilities though

Expect Lawson to return to school.

[Sephiroth]

Unless the Wolves can get a package the 2 second rounders along with McCants for a pick in the 15-20 range I would prefer keeping the picks.

The Wolves can potentially grab a player like Roy Hibbert, Kosta Koufas, or maybe even DeAndre Jordan in that 15-20 range.

If that can't be done, the 2nd rounders have a handful of players to select. Joey Dorsey, Ty Lawson, DeVon Hardin...

Wovles should take Mayo at #3 and see who falls to the second round. If Dorsey, Lawson, and Hardin as still there - take 'em. If not, talk to teams and 'trade up'.

[revprodeji]

If we get Mayo we should pay attention to the Walker connection. They used to play together and rumor has it they have good chemistry. I am all for grabbing Hibbert, but we should keep an eye on Walker as well.

Dorsey is likely in orlando, and Lawson is going back to school.

[Klomp]

If we get Mayo we should pay attention to the Walker connection. They used to play together and rumor has it they have good chemistry. I am all for grabbing Hibbert, but we should keep an eye on Walker as well.

Agreed.

[prefuse73]

If we could swing the new jersey deal, I think R.Lopez should be there and should be our pick. I wonder if we could something like McCants and #31 and #34 for #21 and Sean williams. If we can get him along with Mayo and Rlopez, it would have to be considered one of our best drafts ever (not really saying much).

Williams - Rlopez
Jefferson - Gomes - Richard
Brewer - Gomes - Jaric
Mayo - Snyder (?) - Jaric
Foye - Telfair (?) - Mayo

thats sexy.

[MN Die Hard]

If we get Mayo we should pay attention to the Walker connection. They used to play together and rumor has it they have good chemistry. I am all for grabbing Hibbert, but we should keep an eye on Walker as well.

Yes sir, those boys would bring some much-needed swagger to this team. And playing with a familiar face would probably help their confidence.

[shrink]

Very familiar face.

If we only get one, I say go with youth.

[Winter Wonder]

I am probably in the minority, but I really don't like the idea of trading both our 2nd rounders. I would much rather stash a prime euro big overseas a few years with one of those seconds. As per the article and thread lower on these boards, those 2nd rounders are going to be more valuable with overseas prospects due to their not being guaranteed and not subject to the rookie salary scale.

I am all for trading up into the first round, just not at the expense of both 2nd rounders....

[the_bruce]

I'd rather keep the 2nds unless the pick is in the 17-22 range.

[4ho5ive]

If we move up to the #21. Hibbert, Lopez, Walker, Speights (wishful thinking), McGee (ditto), and CDR. If we keep the 2 2nd's Hardin, Anderson (who i really like), Jawai and Weaver are guys i would look at, potentially.

[theGreatRC]

How many centers picked out of the top 10 are in the league starting now, or have been productive on their teams?

I can only think of a few, most of them are European players.

Rasho(17th pick, did he start for the Raptors?)
Oberto(Free Agent?)
Illgauskas(20th pick)
Okur(38th pick)
Kristic(24th pick)
Perkins(27th pick)

The rest of the starting centers in the league have been selected top 10..

Camby(2nd pick)
Kaman(6th pick)
Shaq(1st pick)
Yao(1st pick)
Darko(2nd)
Gasol(3rd)
Horford(3rd)

You get the idea...


What i'm trying to say is, if we are looking for a Center in the mid 1st, we should draft a European player, lol. Odds would be with us.

[4ho5ive]

True, but only Horford (1st year), Yao and Kaman are on their original teams. Camby has been traded around and is heavy in trade talks, Shaq has been with 4 teams, Darko is on his 2nd and Gasol is on his 2nd team as well. Shaq is the only one to ever take his team to the finals but he is just on another level physically.

What im saying is that even if we dont use the pick on a Lopez or Love or another top C prospect, it doesnt mean we cant get a productive Center through trade or through FA.

[shrink]

I'm starting to suspect that the mystery team is the Denver Nuggets. Perhaps we're throwing in an addition asset like ..

#31 + #34 + 2009 BOS 1st for #20

.. or perhaps its just two of these.

Denver fits a lot of the criteria I have for a likely candidate.

1. They are just over the lux by a few million dollars, so the pick would cost them double, and a different move could get them under, and save an addition $2-3 mil by reclaiming their piece of the lux pie.

2. With Iverson on board one more year, and Camby no young guy, they are probably win-now. Drafting the #20 would mean paying a salary for a player that's not going to see much court time. The second rounders could develop in Europe.

3. McHale supposedly has had this deal in place for weeks. A team like NJN is probably going to be active in trading, but if DEN didn't get any Carmelo offers they liked (and supposedly any deal is dead, and I haven't heard a word about it in weeks), its possible they'd be willing to lock into this trade a few weeks ago.

If it's the #20, I'm pretty happy. There's going to be a pretty good big man prospect available there.