Has Andrew Bogut peaked?

[Malinhion]

Bogut seemed to slip a little in his third NBA season. He was scoring more, but only in virtue of taking more shots. His FG% took a pretty significant hit. His FT% was up a little, but it still didn't best his rookie mark. However, while his FG% took a slight dip, I could see it going up again, as he's playing more on the interior. Bogut got a few more dunks in 2008 but nearly doubled his tip-ins! If he could only work on converting them more, or siumply grabbing the rock and going back up, he will put up a few more points while increasing his efficiency. A .400 eFG% on tip-ins in inexcusable.

Even the most lauded part of his game, playmaking, didn't produce results as he dropped to 2.6 dimes. He was even assisted on a greater percentage of his shots this season--a sign that he's not putting his high-post skills to good use. However, his assists are leading to shots closer to the basket rather than the jumpshot dimes he used to dish, so there is some consolation here as well.

His most marked improvement was one rebound per game, which he picked up half-and-half between offense and defense. After that was his jump in blocks, from a paltry 0.5 to 1.7. Maybe Bogut's defense is whats improving with age, since his steals are steadiuly rising in small increments.

Going into his fourth NBA season, how do you see his numbers changing? How might roster turnover in Milwaukee affect his production? Or if he goes somewhere else, where do you see him performing best?

[carrottop12]

He will continue to get smarter, remember he's only been playing American basketball for 5 years so he will get better at little things which will help him in the long run.

I expect his PPG to rise to around the 17 mark, and he can easily eclipse the 10 RPG.

If he can have a few seasons of 17/10/3/2 that would make him a very good player.

[some_rand]

he will get better, his defense improved this season and he also blocked a lot more shots and he was the only one really playing on that bucks team pretty much everyone had given up early in the season

[TheOUTLAW]

I think he will always be viewed as a bit of a disappointment, but I can't imagine that he won't be able to play better than he did this year.

[HarlemHeat37]

He needs to get Redd and Mo Williams off that team..it's difficult to thrive when you have ball hogs as the main ballhandlers on your team..

[Dags]

Take a look at his 2008 numbers. Through his 48 2008 games he was averaging 16/10.5, 1.7 blocks, 2.8 assists, 52% FG, 61% FT. Much nicer than his whole season stats.

Pre All Star break it was 13.9 and 8.9 with 1.8 blocks and 2.4 assists, drawing 3.6 FTs per game. Post All Star it was 16.3 (51.1%)/11.6, 1.7 blocks and 2.8 assists, drawing 5.2 FTs per game.

He improved throughout the season. Sure his whole season stats aren't fabulous, but once the coach decided to make him a focus of the offense he improved. I don't know if it's right to simply ignore the within season improvement. If you acknowledge the within season improvement, and think the team will keep him involved, then you can't think he's peaked.

[Malinhion]

Take a look at his 2008 numbers. Through his 48 2008 games he was averaging 16/10.5, 1.7 blocks, 2.8 assists, 52% FG, 61% FT. Much nicer than his whole season stats.

Pre All Star break it was 13.9 and 8.9 with 1.8 blocks and 2.4 assists, drawing 3.6 FTs per game. Post All Star it was 16.3 (51.1%)/11.6, 1.7 blocks and 2.8 assists, drawing 5.2 FTs per game.

He improved throughout the season. Sure his whole season stats aren't fabulous, but once the coach decided to make him a focus of the offense he improved. I don't know if it's right to simply ignore the within season improvement. If you acknowledge the within season improvement, and think the team will keep him involved, then you can't think he's peaked.

Good point. This is much better than the typical "he has flashes" arguments followed by month X vs. month Y and subtracting a week from the stats or measuring numbers "as a starter" or extrapolating guys who have high PER but low minutes.

A levelheaded observation on seasonal progression. Very nice.

I guess Skiles might make a difference, too, but I don't think Scottie has been so good for high-talent big men in the past (see Tyson Chandler).

[Pai Gow]

In January he was absolutely beasting in every game cause the Bucks for whatever reason started to give him the rock and if I recall they did fairly well.

But yes, I think Redd is stunting his growth a bit, Bogut is extremely efficient and a very good passer they would be much better running the offense through him.

[rrravenred]

Depends on a couple of factors, IMO:

* Jump shot - in college he had range. This jumpshot has essentially disappeared from his repertoire in the pros. If it returns, it turns him into a genuine triple threat and opens up his game due to his above-average handles and passing nous

* FT shooting - an abysmal 58.7%. This also affects the confidence with which he can take it to the hole as well as the way the defence reacts to him. Improvement would improve both his scoring and his shot selection.

* Authority in the Post - Bogut has shown flashes of being a very effective player down low, but has been inconsistent. There is room to develop the variety and the surety of his post game. This draws the double more effectively and once again opens up his passing game.

Bogie's defense hs come along in leaps and bounds over the past year, with his 2007 form having even some Bucks cynics pimping him as a DPOY candidate. This faded in 2008, but the offensive improvements made up for it.

Bogut is still an effective player even at current levels of production, but I'd venture an opinion that it's the above issues that will determine whether he makes the leap to being an All-NBA (2nd team) / borderline Allstar player.

[UDRIH14]

his like omeka, both are under utilized...not enough touches

[BRINGTHEPAIN]

He's the next Pau Gasol.

[The Main Event]

I'm just stunned that you managed to use the word "paltry".
Bogut hasn't peaked. The guy is gonna be a dirty center in years to come. Give him time young grasshoppa.

[Malinhion]

Well, 0.5 blocks from a #1 overall center is pretty "paltry.":P

[Dr Aki]

hes going to be a solid platform to build around for any team but definately not a franchise player

he hasnt peaked but is pretty close to it

i can see him signing multiple MLEs for contenders when his nice new contract expires

[VintaGe36]

^No.


If Dampier can get the contract he got.

If Foyle got 10 mil.

He will get MUCH more than the MLE.

He's seriously getting underrated in this thread IMO.

[Malinhion]

Yeah, he will definitely command more than the MLE. Rarely does a big man with legitimate size get offered anything near the MLE, unless they're signing to a contender to chase a ring. Kwame might be one of the few bigs we see sign for the MLE or less.

[Dr Aki]

im talking at the end of his extension he'll sign with the bucks

im not sure he can command much more than the MLE when hes finished with that contract

either he'll live up to big expectations and get another extension (unlikely) or he'll decide he doesnt need the money and sign MLEs for contenders needing a legit backup center

[Malinhion]

Bogut is definitely starting C quality in the NBA. He is not gonna sign for the MLE to ride the pine.

The Bucks will probably resign him for ~10M/per.

[Dr Aki]

again im not talking about NOW, im talking about 5-6 years down the track

[Malinhion]

again im not talking about NOW, im talking about 5-6 years down the track

Uhhh...impossible. His extension runs two more years. He's got a QO in 2009-10 for $8million, which they will take. If that's what you meant...explain your last post:

"im talking at the end of his extension"