My take on JO and trading him.

[IndieRuso420]

ATL- Would have to package Bibby/Johnson and that isn

[FreeRon]

The answer to your question is that we'd rather have the cap space than take back trash in return and just have to wait longer for said cap space.

[IndieRuso420]

The answer to your question is that we'd rather have the cap space than take back trash in return and just have to wait longer for said cap space.

What cap space?

[Scoot McGroot]

I think you're under-estimating Washington, Utah, Milwaukee, Miami, Houston, Chicago, and possibly even Detroit. A team like Portland could help make a deal easier by making it a 3 way deal and giving up pieces that Indy could use, while wanting a guy like Nocioni or Hinrich in a JO type deal.


Detroit is looking at a massive rebuilding and might be in a 3 way deal where JO is shipped out. Houston is looking like they might be at a point where they might have to make a wholesale change with TMac if it doesn't work out early this year, and teams like Washington, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami seem like pretty decent landing spots for JO. Utah would have to make another move or two to make it work for JO, but I could see a few situations working out for them.

[IndieRuso420]

I think you're under-estimating Washington, Utah, Milwaukee, Miami, Houston, Chicago, and possibly even Detroit. A team like Portland could help make a deal easier by making it a 3 way deal and giving up pieces that Indy could use, while wanting a guy like Nocioni or Hinrich in a JO type deal.


Detroit is looking at a massive rebuilding and might be in a 3 way deal where JO is shipped out. Houston is looking like they might be at a point where they might have to make a wholesale change with TMac if it doesn't work out early this year, and teams like Washington, Utah, Milwaukee, and Miami seem like pretty decent landing spots for JO. Utah would have to make another move or two to make it work for JO, but I could see a few situations working out for them.

I'll admit, three way trades can make a virtual non contender for a player, a definite contender. At the same time, it's so much harder to pull off a three way deal, and especially for JO. That's going to be tough, but can happen. My first post is centered around a two team trade which I think is more likely.

[Scoot McGroot]

JO only has 2 years left on his deal, and I think my general argument is just that we shouldn't trade JO just to trade JO. If we get a decent deal that helps this franchise not just long-term, but right now as well, then we better damn well do it. I just don't think that dropping JO for 2 anchors in Kenny Thomas and SAR just to pick up the #12 pick is too helpful for us now or long-term.

[IndieRuso420]

JO only has 2 years left on his deal, and I think my general argument is just that we shouldn't trade JO just to trade JO. If we get a decent deal that helps this franchise not just long-term, but right now as well, then we better damn well do it. I just don't think that dropping JO for 2 anchors in Kenny Thomas and SAR just to pick up the #12 pick is too helpful for us now or long-term.

I understand what you are saying, but I still think us Pacer fans are a little blinded by the fact other teams GM's are not that interested in a injury plagued former all star with potential, so how do you drive up interest for a player in a situation like that?

What about that TOR trade? Or the 2nd CLE trade? TJ Ford, Rasho, and Garbajosa is pretty good value for JO. Wally, Joe Smith, Pavlovic, #19 is great value for JO (I'de suspect we would have to include Graham). I'm sure there are probably Pacer fans who think that is terrible value for JO, but JO isn't that great anymore guys. I'll take a veteran PG who at this point is less of an injury risk than JO (IMO), and a rotational C in Rasho, and a possible backup SF/PF in Garbajosa. TOR fans had mixed feeling on this deal, but I could see it. Also, the 2nd CLE deal is much better than Ford's idea. Wally would be another Dunleavy type player, Joe Smith would be a solid PF, and Pavlovic would be another shooter, while also getting #19. That's as good as value as we are going to get here.

[Scoot McGroot]

TJ Ford is no such thing as "less of an injury risk than JO". The guy's missed an entire season already, and has missed 157 games in his 5 year career already. Over the same 5 years, JO has missed 126 games. However, at least JO has shown that he can put together more than just two years of more than 70 games (TJ Ford had consecutive years of 72 and 75 games, both were career highs, the other 2 years he's played were 55 and 51. He missed an entire season.)


TJ Ford is the one PG in the league that we cannot acquire. He embodies what Coach O'Brien and Larry Bird have already said about the reason that we cannot build around Jamaal Tinsley; lack of dependability when it comes to health.

[granger05]

I don't necessarily agree with all of your judgements on each team's likelyhood of making a deal for JO, but I do appreciate all the effort. I also agree that there aren't a lot of teams willing to deal for JO at this point.

However, my feeling on JO is that his value can't get much lower than what we perceive it to be which is a contract dump and a middling pick. Why bother? I have also felt that it's time to move on, but the risk-reward doesn't really line up. If we trade JO for any of these packages there isn't any real upside. There's no young up-and-comer coming back a'la JO for Dale Davis. There's no high draft pick to elicit some excitement. We maybe save some money in the short term, but his contract is up in two seasons anyway. Isn't it more likely that JO bounces back than that Sasha Pavlovic becomes a rising star or a player drafted at #19 becomes a starter?

At this point, I think it makes sense to let JO take advantage of all that rehab time he had at the end of last season. Let him come in and see where things are at the trade deadline. Even if he continues to be injured or unproductive, his contract comes off the books in two seasons. The reward that he could be a solid player again either for us or to bring in a better deal seems worth the risk of him continuing to be terrible and us missing out on the chance to get some salary relief now and a so-so draft pick. None of the packages I've seen are franchise savers. JO returning to health potentially could be a franchise saver so isn't it worth the gamble?

[mizzoupacers]

Man, IndieRuso, you must really want to trade JO bad to go through all 30 teams like that!

I think there is a reasonably good chance that O'Neal will have a healthier season next year than he did this year, but even if he doesn't, by next summer he will be an expiring contract. So I think his trade value is more likely to be higher a year from now, than it is to be lower.

From that standpoint, the Pacers should sit tight unless they get a pretty good trade offer. However, I have to wonder about the status of JO's relationship with the front office at this point, and whether he wants to be in Indiana any more, and whether that stuff has a negative impact on the team as a whole. From THAT standpoint, it might be best to part ways with JO this summer if anyone makes an offer that is at all acceptable.

[PR07]

Of the no shots, I think Milwaukee, Chicago, and Golden State have a good chance.

Some sort of Redd for JO deal could make sense.

Chicago could deal Hinrich+fillers for JO.

Golden State already resembles Pacers West, so if Baron burns his bridges, they aren't going to get equal value in a S&T. O'Neal makes a lot of sense.

[OhioKingsFan]

What would Pacer Fans think of a swap with SAC that looked something like this:

JO for Brad Miller, Mikki Moore, maybe 2nd round pick?

Brad would enjoy returning to Indiana, and would be an upgrade to Jeff Foster. A solid 3rd scoring option for this team. His passing game could really compliment the outstanding play of Granger and Dunleavy.

Mikki Moore would also be a great back up Big Man on IND's up-tempo offense. 2nd Round Pick is just filler, Kings have 2 this year anyway.

JO's mammoth contract expires same year as Brad and Mikki's (team option) so he doesn't hurt the long term salary cap plans. Rebuilding isn't affected while upgrading PF possition for Kings. We'll just cross our fingers when this SAC team visits Detroit.

[count55]

It's not the deal of my dreams, but something like that might be about what his market gets. It's so hard to tell at the moment, that I only have "deals I could live with" and "deals I'd choke on". I stop well short of saying yes or no to anything because (a) what I say doesn't matter (duh) and (b) I'm in the mode that I'm going to wait to see what we actually get before commenting because it could be anything in a wide spectrum of values.

From the Kings side, however, I think you should consider the possibility that JO might actually try to kill Ron Artest.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Man, IndieRuso, you must really want to trade JO bad to go through all 30 teams like that!

I think there is a reasonably good chance that O'Neal will have a healthier season next year than he did this year, but even if he doesn't, by next summer he will be an expiring contract. So I think his trade value is more likely to be higher a year from now, than it is to be lower.

From that standpoint, the Pacers should sit tight unless they get a pretty good trade offer. However, I have to wonder about the status of JO's relationship with the front office at this point, and whether he wants to be in Indiana any more, and whether that stuff has a negative impact on the team as a whole. From THAT standpoint, it might be best to part ways with JO this summer if anyone makes an offer that is at all acceptable.

This is the point I have been trying to make. Indie, why do you want to trade JO when his value is this low? Worst case scenario and he is injured the whole year, he is still a 20mil expiring and has more value than he does right now. I see no harm in just holding onto JO for another year if the best offer we can get right now is a bunch of players that will not help our team at all. I don't want to trade JO for the sake of trading him, I want to help the team out, and trading him for 4 scrubs doesn't do that. I'd rather have JO for 50 games a year than 4 scrubs for 80.

The notion of packing the #11 pick with JO is just the craziest thing I've heard. I can't imagine the Pacers doing that. The #11 pick is so valuable to a rebuilding team, why would we trade it? Even if no one wants to admit it, JO is still valuable to our team, and I the only one who saw the impact he made at the end of the year? Am I the only one who thinks JO is still a good player?

[count55]

I think JO could still be a good player, but I'm pretty close to the point that I was at with Tinsley 3 or 4 years ago...I'm tired of waiting for him to be healthy, and there's not a great deal of evidence pointing towards him ever being healthy again.

That's not to say that I would trade him for a ham sandwich and a buy-one-get-one-free pass at King's Island, but my asking price this summer is much lower than my asking price was last summer. Also, I don't necessarily have the faith that many have here that his value will go up as an expiring.

My fear is that we go through another year at least as, if no more injury-plagued than last, at which point he's become a more expensive Theo Ratliff, and it's difficult to tell what we'd get for that, or, more to the point, who we'd have to add to him to get something of value.

Therefore, there are deals I would say yes to this year, but they'd probably need to result in at least half of his contract expiring, a decent draft pick, and promising young guy, and maybe a solid vet. Not saying I'll get that, ever, but that's what it would take for it to be of more value/less risk than keeping JO and hoping he either (a) plays or (b) his value goes up.

I said it last year: we've got plenty of time to make a bad trade, so let's try to make the best trade we can make this year, or be OK with keeping him. (Of course, we have less time now than we did last summer, and this past year was pretty much a worst-case scenario for the JO value.)

[ahartleyvu]

Seattle is rumored to want out of the 4th pick to trade for a later lottery pick. They've worked out Kevin Love, Kostas Koufos, J.J. Hickson, and Nathan Jawai, with Roy Hibbert, Russell Westbrook, Shaun Pruitt, and George Hill coming later on.

It says they want to draft Love later on, but I am pretty sure Memphis takes him w/ the 5.

JO+11th for Wilcox, Ridnour, Marshall + Griffin/random filler, and the 4th pick

I am pretty positive that the top three picks will be Beasley/Rose/Mayo. So we have our choice of:

- Lopez
- Bayless
- Gordon

We replace decent value back at PF in Wilcox. Ridnour can run the point for us. Marshall is an expiring, and Griffin is just a toss in.

Seattle gets a real defensive big with a good offensive game. Makes their team very interesting.

Watson
Durant
Green
JO
Collison

We let Harrison and Rush go. Then cut Griffin or Owens.

Meanwhile we are looking at:

Option A - select Bayless

Ridnour - Bayless - Diener
Dunleavy - Daniels
Granger - Williams - Marshall
Wilcox - Murphy - Williams
Foster - Murphy

Option B - select Lopez

Ridnour - Diener - Daniels
Dunleavy - Daniels
Granger - Williams - Marshall
Wilcox - Murphy - Williams
Foster - Lopez - Murphy

Option C - select Gordon

Ridnour - Diener - Daniels
Dunleavy - Gordon - Daniels
Granger - Williams - Marshall
Wilcox - Murphy - Williams
Foster - Murphy

I'm not sure if Seattle goes for this or not though.

[count55]

Getting the fourth pick sounds great until you list Bayless, Gordon, and Lopez as the possible picks...then I think "meh".

This is probably a really good deal for JO, but those guys don't thrill me in the least.

[bballpacen]

The problem with moving JO next season, is you still have to make salaries match. While it can be done, we would certainly need to take back some unwanted contracts in the process... If not, certainly we would have to take back multiple contracts, and would have to cut some players. I was of the school that we would get good value for JO next year, but I am realizing that the value may actually go down.

[ahartleyvu]

Getting the fourth pick sounds great until you list Bayless, Gordon, and Lopez as the possible picks...then I think "meh".

This is probably a really good deal for JO, but those guys don't thrill me in the least.

They sound a heck of a lot better than maybe getting Augustin or Westbrook IMO. Or Deandre Jordan.

Plus, you get replacement value (to some extent) in Wilcox. A serviceable point guard in Ridnour. Plus the upgrade in our draft pick.

[PR07]

Jermaine would veto a trade to Seattle. Why would he want to go there? He wants to win a championship, and while the future appears to be bright in Seattle (or maybe Oklahoma City), they are still a ways from being a contender in the West.

I would rather just swing a trade for the Clippers #7 and take Gordon or Lopez because it would be easier to acquire, and you'd still get the same caliber of prospects.