ATL / Portland Pondering

[dms269]

- strong rebounding (Rondo gets better numbers than Marvin, who averages 4 measly rebounds)

In the playoffs, yes. In the regular season, no.
Rondo: http://www.nba.com/playerfile/rajon_rondo/index.html
4.2 rpg
Marvin: http://www.nba.com/playerfile/marvin_wi ... index.html
5.7 rpg

[Jack wore plaid]

Please explain how Portland has cap room? Did you see their list of salaries?

Steve Francis - $17.1M
Raef Lafrentz - $12.7M
Darius Miles - $9M
Pryz - $6M w/2 more years at $6.8M & $7.4M

I see $75M committed for a roughly $58M salary cap. Am I missing something?

I'll try.

Francis and Lafrentz come off the books after next season, reducing the Blazers commited salary by about 30 million. The Blazers recieved a medical retirement from the NBA for Darius Miles reducing their commited salary by another 9 million this season

Commited salary for the 09' season is roughly 22 million. Travis Outlaw and Steve Blake have team options those years, and Webster, Jack and Frye would have be renounced or traded, leaving the team with Oden, Aldridge, Roy, Fernandez and Przybilla.

If the Blazers choose to do so they could concevable sign a couple of players to max deals and then sign players to minimum contracts to fill out the roster.

The following couple of years Portland would have a huge luxury tax, but Paul Allen has said he will pay it if the team is competing for a title, and not that it will happen, but theoretically the Blazers could add Chris Paul and someone like Danny Granger and have a line up of Paul, Roy, Granger, Aldridge, Oden with Fernandez, Przybilla and a couple of lesser FA signees along with draft pics backing them up. I think that team would probably compete.

There is also a chance they could retain players like Blake and Outlaw and only add someone like Paul....Which again I don't think will happen, but at this point it could
[/quote]

[evildallas]

As far as Pryzbilla goes, I give you this:
Webster, Frye, Jack, Jones, Outlaw, Aldridge, Roy, and Blake are all eligible for extensions/new deals before Pryz comes off the cap. While some of those guys are probably going bye-bye by then, the rest are the core of the resurgent Blazers and will be paid. Can the Blazers afford him? Sure. Getting him off the cap give more freedom next summer to pick up a player. Also, Miles has another year after this one on the cap even though they bought him out. To truly get under the cap they will have to renounce some free agents at the end of this season.

Outside of shooting the 3 Marvin Williams outperformed Outlaw, Webster, and Jones across the board. Outlaw is close, which is why I didn't ask for him. Webster and Jones aren't really. He is clearly the best player in this deal, but has the baggage of being drafted ahead of Deron Williams and Chris Paul on him which haunts him here. IMO, he also doesn't have the drive to be great. Don't get me wrong, he wants to be good. I just don't see that level of competitiveness to be great at all costs that seems necessary to reach the highest levels of the NBA that you want from a #2 pick. This is less of an issue in going to Portland because of the potential star power at the 2, 4, and 5 spots. He seems to be a perfect fit in that he has a lot of talent, but seems to me that he'd be content being the 4th wheel on a great team with a deep pockets owner than can sign him to a salary starting around 8.5M and not feel bad about it. Also Marvin and Martell's cap hold numbers next summer are close to the same, so this isn't hurting the Blazers flexibility at all.

The picks were actively been shopped by the Blazers who unless they go International and leave the guy overseas to develop are going to have trouble finding an open roster spot. It was my understanding that a future first would probably be enough to secure the 13 unless it is needed in another deal, so don't get too up in arms about it. The #13 is fair compensation for the player upgrade at SF and the cap flexibility. Asking for the #36 might be excessive, but it is a pick that could will probably go to waste for Portland (unless they use it in another deal).

Webster could be replaced with Jones if he doesn't opt out, but a S&T of Jones doesn't work with the draft day aspect of the trade. As far as Jack instead of the picks as a counter, I'm not feeling that. Jack is a nice combo guard who should have a long career in the NBA as a backup, but he lacks the upside of the picks and his rookie deal is ending so he could very well be a 1 year stop over signing elsewhere for a good size portion of the MLE. He'd be handy in the rotation for that year, but long term we give up a solid starting SF and take on salary for 3 role playing backups if we can resign Jack or 2 if we can't. At least with the picks they might develop into more.

I could see Portland wanting to tweak the deal to get back a future pick and I would consider that probably asking for the #33 instead of the #36 to insure more options with the 2nd rounder if we do that. I would fully expect Portland to try to land Tayshaun Prince before dealing with us. Outside of that I'm not sure who's out there at SF that's not a RFA (like Deng or Igoudala) that could be added to upgrade the spot without giving up a key member of the Portland core.

Tweaked offer:

Marvin, Zaza, 2010 1st (top 8 protected)
for
Martell, Pryz, #13, #33

Portland will still have LaFrentz expiring contract and other fodder like a Jones S&T, Jack, Frye to go after Hinrich in July when his BYC is off or TJ Ford. Or perhaps they wait until the trade deadline to see if anyone if on the move then.

[tbhawksfan]

Not sure bout your counter offer. The first the Hawks give back will pobably be near #20, which isn't far from #13 in most drafts.

Si it looks like

Marvin / Zaza

for

Webster / Pryz / #33

I'm not sure I do this one.Pryz is more expensive than Zaza and has a longer contract. Zaza is $4 off next season. Marvin still has a lot of potential to turn into a 18/6/3 SF and his D should improve. He's efficient and would benefit from better coaching.

First trade, yes, second no.

[Jack wore plaid]

Also, Miles has another year after this one on the cap even though they bought him out. To truly get under the cap they will have to renounce some free agents at the end of this season.

This is not true.

Miles' salary does not count against the salary cap. The Blazers, or insurance will still pay Miles through his contract though. The only way Miles' contract will count against the Blazers is if he plays in 10 games in one of the next two years. Then his salary only counts against the luxury tax.

Miles was a medical retirement, meaning the team does not have to count his remaining salary against the cap. An independent Dr. that both the players union and the NBA agreed upon had to conclude he could no longer play

[D21]

I disagree. Portland will have plenty of cap-space with or without Przybilla.

Please explain how Portland has cap room? Did you see their list of salaries?

Steve Francis - $17.1M
Raef Lafrentz - $12.7M
Darius Miles - $9M
Pryz - $6M w/2 more years at $6.8M & $7.4M

I see $75M committed for a roughly $58M salary cap. Am I missing something?...

I think he was talking about cap space for 2009 summer, not the 2008.
______________________________________________

@Jack, that's right, due to his medical retirement, there's a one year waiting period, then the remaining salaries of the contract are not counting against the cap. So the last year of Miles' contract won't count.

Meanwhile, POR will have about $22M in salaries like you said, but more than 22M$ counting in 2009 summer.
POR will have:
$6,857,725 Przbyilla
$5,361,240 Oden
$5,844,827 Aldridge
$3,910,816 Roy
$1,576,696 Rodriguez
so $23,551,304 and salaries of Fernandez + 08' and 09' picks
+
$11,313,199 Webster cap hold (unless released, or signed ASAP for a new contract and counting with new contract first year salary)
$9,491,307 Frye cap hold ( " )
$6,007,869 Jack cap hold ( " )
$4,930,000 Blake 2009/10 salary (unless released , being unguaranteed)
$4,000,000 Outlaw 2009/10 salary ( " , unguaranteed too)

so a total of $59,293,679 and salaries of Fernandez + 08' and 09' picks.
Add the MLE at about $5.5M and you're over the cap (certainly $61.5M for 2009/10)

So to get about one max player signed , starting at $13M, you have to be at 61.5 - 13 = $48M, so will need to renounce to MLE and some players.

But I agree you have a great young core, and as I already said, I wish you to be able to keep all these players when it will be time to sign new contracts. If they all agree to not want the max, you can turn your team into a title contender for years.
___________________________________________

Back to trade discussion, I remember that last summer, there were POR's fans agreeing on a Marvin for Webster+Jack.
What do you think about this trade now ?

[Rip2137]

I don't like that trade. Jack just isn't very good and martell is a shooter, but thats about it. He doesn't slash the way he should be able to, he can't defend. He is basically a nice guy with a pretty jumper.

[killbuckner]

He is basically a nice guy with a pretty jumper.

lol... why does that sound somehow familiar?

[Rip2137]

Our nice guy with a jumper gets to the line 5 times a game(over 6 a game before the Bibby trade) and held Paul Pierce to 40% shooting and below in 4 of the 7 games in our playoff series.

Martell has had a pretty jumpshot.

[Village Idiot]

I think he was talking about cap space for 2009 summer, not the 2008.

correct. Doing anything about 2008 cap-space is too late.

so $23,551,304 and salaries of Fernandez + 08' and 09' picks
+
$11,313,199 Webster cap hold (unless released, or signed ASAP for a new contract and counting with new contract first year salary)
$9,491,307 Frye cap hold ( " )
$6,007,869 Jack cap hold ( " )
$4,930,000 Blake 2009/10 salary (unless released , being unguaranteed)
$4,000,000 Outlaw 2009/10 salary ( " , unguaranteed too)

so a total of $59,293,679 and salaries of Fernandez + 08' and 09' picks.
Add the MLE at about $5.5M and you're over the cap (certainly $61.5M for 2009/10)

So to get about one max player signed , starting at $13M, you have to be at 61.5 - 13 = $48M, so will need to renounce to MLE and some players.

Let's say Webster is extended starting at $5 million and Frye at the same level. Blake and Outlaw probably stay and one of Rodriguez or Jack is traded or let go. Let's say it's Jack and cut his $6 million cap-hold. Right there you have already have cut $17 million off the cap-hold figure and are at $42 million. Add $5,5 million for this year's pick, Fernandez, the 09 1st and Freeland and Koponen's cap-holds and Portland still has only $48-49 million in cap-holds. Like you say, with an expected 2009/10 salary cap of $59-60 million that leaves the Blazers with $10-12 million in cap-space which is ample. If they renounce Koponen and Freeland and trade the 2009 1st for future considerations that's another $2-2.5 million in cap-space. Let Blake go as well and Portland has $20 million in cap-space.

Portland has a lot of options and can easily get max cap-space to pursue the right player. Trading Joel Przybilla might happen but I doubt it does until closer to the deadline.