Marion must opt-in or opt-out by Tuesday

[Lane1974]

The biggest decision for the Heat might be one that is due two days before it exercises the No. 2 pick in the June 26 NBA Draft.

The opt-out window for forward Shawn Marion closes at 6 p.m. June 24. By then, he must decide whether to play out the final season on his contract, at $17.8 million for 2008-09, or become a free agent July 1.

The timing is no coincidence. In extending Marion a six-year, $80 million contract in 2003, the Phoenix Suns wanted a definitive decision from the versatile forward in advance of the 2008 draft.

more details + speculation in the linky

[SJ2100]

Good to know, thanks Lane.

A related question: If Marion were to opt out and leave via FA, would you feel comfortable starting Beasley at SF? Obviously his natural spot is at the 4, but would we be able to have a Beasley-Haslem (or Beasley-Brand ) frontcourt, or would we have to go with Wright-Beasley at forward and bring Haslem off the bench?

[Lane1974]

Good to know, thanks Lane.

A related question: If Marion were to opt out and leave via FA, would you feel comfortable starting Beasley at SF? Obviously his natural spot is at the 4, but would we be able to have a Beasley-Haslem (or Beasley-Brand ) frontcourt, or would we have to go with Wright-Beasley at forward and bring Haslem off the bench?

one of the best things about Marion is his versatility in defending multiple positions, Haslem can't defend the 3 by any means, and it remains to be seen about Beasley, but as a rookie he will have problems playing defense on anyone. We'd be so super thin at the 3, counting on Beasley and Wright. One of our big problems is depth all around, which is why it makes sense they are considering trading down for quantity.

I still think Marion opts in, takes his 17+ million for this year. There is no guarantee (unless he has a wink wink which I doubt, seeing as Riley has stressed cap room cap room caproom) that the Heat will give him a Vince Carter type long term deal like Ira hints at. He'd be taking a chance opting out, hoping someone gives him a large deal with not that many teams with cap room who're close to winning that would want a Marion type player. He does have the insecurity of being traded someone else this season where he doesn't necessarily want to be, but it's a good problem for the Heat to have.

[BFRESH44]

Na, I wouldn't be comfortable with Beasley starting at the 3, because he is not a small forward. He's a power forward all the way. He doesn't even possess the handle of a wing player.

Wright or FA shooter (a guy like James Jones) and Beasley at the 4, with Udonis off the bench. No doubt.

Udonis will probably start the first 20 something odd games though, until B-Easy gets his feet wet..

But hopefully Trix does not opt out. This FA crop is pretty garbage, anyway. All the best Free Agents are restricted, and by all means the respective teams will pretty much retain them at whatever price the market sets.

[SJ2100]

Na, I wouldn't be comfortable with Beasley starting at the 3, because he is not a small forward. He's a power forward all the way. He doesn't even possess the handle of a wing player.

If we do draft Beasley, it could increase our chances of giving Marion an extension. Everybody on this board has been clamoring about the possibility of adding Brand or Boozer in '09, but with Beasley at the 4, signing one of those players would be redundant (not to mention Haslem off the bench). With Beasley and Wade locked in, our focus will be on adding a PG, SF, or C with our '09 cap room.

The premier '09 UFAs that play those positions are Marion, Kidd, Iverson, Sheed, Odom, Bibby, Andre Miller, and players who could be UFAs in '09, if they don't opt-out this summer are Baron, Brand (PF), and Artest.

Off of that list, Marion might well be the best fit for a team featuring Wade and Beasley, and if we extend him now, his contract would expire sooner than if we sign him next summer, meaning Marion would be younger when he is expiring. We would also be competitive faster, because we would be able to use our MLE on a PG or C without worrying about our '09 cap space. Holding that cap room over until 2010 should not be an option, we need to be as competitive as possible the year before Wade becomes a FA.

[HeatSince88]

Ira left us hanging on the BIG question here: How much cap space will we have if Marion does opt out? Is it enough to sign a guy like Brand if he opts out too? After some significant work on my end, here's what I've come up with if Marion opts out:

CAP ROOM IF MARION OPTS OUT

- Cap room with qualifying offer to Dorell (but no one else) .......... $14,268,028
- Cap room without qualifying offer to Dorell (or anyone else) ....... $16,251,000
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Max that Elton Brand is eligible to get from new team .............. $16,384,334
- Max that G. Arenas is eligible for from new team ................... $16,384,334

So by Marion opting out and being renounced, plus guys like Chris Quinn being renounced (they could re-sign later at the minimum if they have no other offers), we would have enough cap room to essentially offer the MAX to Brand or Arenas.

And you can bet your bottom dollar that if Marion opts out, Brand will opt out as well. Even if Brand doesn't really want to sign here over LAC, the opening here would at least create the leverage needed to take such a big leap and know he will get whatever he wants in terms of max, payment schedule, opt-outs, etc. That's what he and his agent are waiting for, IMO. Arenas of course has already opted out, so he's fair game.


** Assumptions: The above scenario assumes the 2008-09 salary cap will increase at 4.69558% as it did the previous year. It also assumes that the max salary for players like Brand and Arenas will increase similarly, as their max represenets approx 30% of 2008-09 salary cap. Also assumes we make the #2 pick and keep it, and that all lower-level guys (Quinn, A Johnson, ad the like) are renounced, although we could keep someone like that (Joel Anthony?) and it wouldn't affect space that much. Also assumes Ricky, JWill, and Zo are renounced, with the idea that Zo would sign for the minimum later given the addition of a Brand plus the #2 pick. NOBODY IS SAYING "This is what will happen" so please don't reply with "Well I don't think we should renounce Dorell" or whatever. This is just the best way I could find to calculate projected cap space - we obviously have no way of telling the future.

[SJ2100]

So, if Marion does opt-out, should we change our draft plans accordingly? Surely it would be foolish to pass on Beasley just because we would have the caproom to sign Brand, should he choose to sign with us. At the same time, choosing Beasley completely eliminates our need for a PF, and signing Brand would mean either moving Beasley to SF or Brand to C, both of which are not ideal.

We could target Gilbert Arenas or Baron Davis, but neither is a good fit next to Wade, they are both too selfish and need the ball in their hands. Ben Gordon, Luol Deng, Monta Ellis, Emeka Okafor, and Josh Smith would all also be possibilities, as would Ron Artest if he opts out. Resigning Marion also has to be considered an option, as well.

If Marion was to opt-out, and we draft Beasley, which FA would you target?

[HeatSince88]

If Marion opts out, Riley will draft the best asset at the slot he's at, regardless of perceived future need.

So for example, if he stays at #2, he will take Beasley, if for no other reason than Beasley having greater value on the trade market than anyone else available. Then, if he does sign Brand, he'll have a great young asset to move to fill out the roster elsewhere. Like trading Beasley in a deal for a center and PG (Biedrins/Ellis? Aldrige/Jack?)

Of course, I think there's about a 5% chance Marion opts out, so this is all meaningless really. Then again, can't that be said of all RealGM discussion?

[D'Lo]

He isnt opting out, and if he is, better for us.

[SJ2100]

If Marion opts out, Riley will draft the best asset at the slot he's at, regardless of perceived future need.

So for example, if he stays at #2, he will take Beasley, if for no other reason than Beasley having greater value on the trade market than anyone else available. Then, if he does sign Brand, he'll have a great young asset to move to fill out the roster elsewhere. Like trading Beasley in a deal for a center and PG (Biedrins/Ellis? Aldrige/Jack?)

Of course, I think there's about a 5% chance Marion opts out, so this is all meaningless really. Then again, can't that be said of all RealGM discussion?

But when was the last time anyone traded their recently-drafted rookie post-draft, before they sign their contract? Chronologically, we would most likely sign Beasley before reaching an agreement with Brand, meaning Beasley would be untradeable. If both Marion and Brand opt out, and we pick Beasley, we would probably not target Brand, but rather someone else in FA who plays PG, SF, or C.

[HeatSince88]

There's no rush to sign Beasley. Once we draft him, he's ours- he can't go anywhere. We can wait until September if we want.

Tons of teams have traded the rights to a draftee without signing him first.

[SJ2100]

There's no rush to sign Beasley. Once we draft him, he's ours- he can't go anywhere. We can wait until September if we want.

Tons of teams have traded the rights to a draftee without signing him first.

Do you have any recent examples? I can't remember that ever happening

[Lane1974]

There's no rush to sign Beasley. Once we draft him, he's ours- he can't go anywhere. We can wait until September if we want.

Tons of teams have traded the rights to a draftee without signing him first.

Do you have any recent examples? I can't remember that ever happening

Dirk was originally a Milwaukee Buck draftee

[Heat11114]

I can't imagine any instance where we resign Marion. Hell even if we use the MLE this year we'd still have a little bit of cap space if we let Marion go in the summer of 09.

Wade 15.78
Blount 7.96
Udonis 7.1
08 MLE 5.94
08 First 4.67
Banks 4.4
Cook 1.36
5 Roster spots: .458x5= 2.29

Total: 49.50 Million
Salary Cap in 2009/2010: 60.97
Cap Space: 11.47 million

This assumes...
1) We lose our 09 1st to Minnesota
2) We don't resign Wright
3) The cap goes up by the same % the next 2 years as it did from 06/07-07/08

[SJ2100]

There's no rush to sign Beasley. Once we draft him, he's ours- he can't go anywhere. We can wait until September if we want.

Tons of teams have traded the rights to a draftee without signing him first.

Do you have any recent examples? I can't remember that ever happening

Dirk was originally a Milwaukee Buck draftee

And Vince Carter was traded for Antwan Jamison on draft night as well. I'm talking about a trade that occurred after draft night, possibly even once the FA period began. I just have never heard of it, except for international players such as Luis Scola and Marc Gasol last year.

[BBallFreak]

Have you guys considered that the plan here is NOT cap space for next year, but rather the year after?

By getting Marion to opt out and resign at a deal averaging around $13 million, we're putting ourselves in position to be a better team next season, keep Marion and our pick, and be players in the 2010 sweepstakes.

Imagine adding Chris Bosh to Wade, Marion, and Mayo.

Patience, guys. Riley knows what he's doing...

[HeatSince88]

Do you have any recent examples? I can't remember that ever happening

Virtually every draftee traded has his rights traded after he is drafted. Rare are the deals where draftees are signed then traded (probably a long moratarium after he is signed), and rare are the deals of "picks for picks" without the selections being made first.

Heat draft Jason Smith
76ers draft Daequan Cook
Then they trade

[HeatSince88]

I highly doubt that if Riley has a chance to sign Brand two weeks from now, he's gonna say "No thanks. I'm waiting for Bosh in July 2010."

Or if he has a chance at Boozer next year, that's he's going to say "No thanks. I'd rather roll the dice on Bosh opting out and leaving next year. Another year of mediocrity never hurt anyone."

[SJ2100]

Do you have any recent examples? I can't remember that ever happening

Virtually every draftee traded has his rights traded after he is drafted. Rare are the deals where draftees are signed then traded (probably a long moratarium after he is signed), and rare are the deals of "picks for picks" without the selections being made first.

Heat draft Jason Smith
76ers draft Daequan Cook
Then they trade

Sorry if I'm sounding ignorant or possibly communicating poorly. I am asking if this sort of thing has ever occurred AFTER draft day, like a week later, during the free agency period, like you proposed. Obviously this has no bearing, since it is such an unrealistic situation we are discussing, but I'm wondering because I would genuinely like to know if it has every happened. Once again, I'm talking about trading someone's (other than international player who stays overseas) draft rights days or weeks after the draft is over.

[HeatSince88]

Has anyone ever drafted #2 and #52 in the same draft?

Answer: Doesn't matter.

Riley will do what's in the best interest of our team. There doesn't have to be precedent for it obviously. If that means draft a guy he might look to trade a week or two later, so be it.

I'm sure there's plenty of picks traded after July 1, but since I don't keep a log of who officially got traded when, I don't have that information for you. The important thing is that it can be done, and there is ZERO rush to sign Beasley if Riley wants to weigh his options trade-wise.