Adding depth with draft day trade

[evildallas]

Given that David Andersen is staying overseas, we need a different plan to improve our depth and provide an offensive option off the bench. At the same time we really could use a backup C that fits our playing style better. For all his heart Zaza's presence on the floor affects our offense and not in a good way. I suggest this trade because our ability to sign these pieces in free agency is debatable.

Zaza Pachulia C (5.2 ppg 4.0 rpg 0.2 bpg)
Future 1st round pick (good protection on the pick)

to Seattle for

Johan Petro C (6 ppg 5.2 rpg 0.6 bpg)
Damien Wilkens SG/SF (9.2 ppg 3.2 rpg 2.0 apg)
#32 pick

Why for Seattle?
They get a future 1st round pick and dump a year of Wilkens salary from the cap (he's got a player option for over 3M after this season). Petro while improving doesn't look like a starting C long term (he shot under 42% last year). The 2nd round pick they surrender is not critical to them as they have a late 1st and 2 mid 2nds to also use. Pachulia is expiring and has proved able to put up decent numbers as a starting C on a bad team (which is the role that he would be filling and Petro was expected to fill as well). I contend that he'll be a better starting C for them than they could of hoped for from Petro, who I see as a backup.

Why for Atlanta?
Petro gives Atlanta a 7 footer albeit a thin one for the backup C role. He's shown signs of improving although his low FG% is sign for concern. He definitely fits an up tempo style better than Zaza. Petro is inconsistent, showing flashes of getting it like a 5 block night or a 22 point outburst or 15 boards but a lot of bad outings to balance it out. He still needs coached and refined, but would give us at least a reasonable shot blocking threat when Josh Smith is out of the game. Steals, blocks, and rebounds are what I expect from him with any offense being a bonus.

Damien Wilkens gives an experienced swingman to add to our bench making us more comfortably 9 deep. His contract length of 2 years is less commitment than what we have to extend on an MLE signing (3 years). He can hit the 3 although I wouldn't consider him a great 3 pt shooter. He's a reasonable perimeter defender. He seems to like playing in Atlanta based on the 41 points he scored in Philips Arena last year. I see Wilkens as upgrading our bench D and giving us a player on the 2nd unit who is willing to take a shot and able to make it.

I considered whether the 24th pick would be more worthwhile of a demand and decided the 32nd fit us better. The 32nd pick doesn't guarantee a salary and while the number of choices will be less than at 24, what we need has a good chance of being available. Given the other elements of this trade we still need the following: beef at either PF or C for the bench, a 3rd PG, another 3 pt shooter for the bench. Let me say that the 3rd PG options dwindled when Ty Lawson pulled out. Prior to that either him or Chalmers was likely to fall to the top of the 2nd round, not now. The best 2nd round PG option is Jamont Gordon and I'm just not sold in him as a PG (he's a combo guard). I don't like shopping for 3 pt shooters in the 2nd round because they are too hit and miss on other skills. I'd rather try to snag one for one of the exceptions. That leaves a big body and depending on the mock draft you look at we could have some good options like Jason Thompson (my choice if available), Ryan Anderson, Devon Hardin, DJ White, Joey Dorsey, or Richard Hendrix. The 1st 3 are more skilled, the last 3 are more beefy. Given that we'd have Petro and Solomon Jones on the roster and Jason Thompson will likely go late first, I'm inclined to think beef. DJ White would probably be my pick because of better overall game although I know Dorsey will be able contribute defensively from day 1. BTW, if Bill Walker is still on the board, I skip need and invest in him. I think he's a steal talent-wise given the injury concerns and if available he's still my guy leaving me to find a backup PF/C in free agency. For sake of showing overall roster, I'm going DJ White with the pick.

Resultant Roster:
Bibby/Law
JJ/Childress/West
Marvin/Wilkens/Richardson
Josh Smith/DJ White
Al Horford/Petro/Solomon

I'm hopeful that Speedy retires (sorry Speedy you just don't have the knees to play) and we'll still need a 3rd PG via free agency. I have West and Richardson listed and I am okay with them in developmental slots, but if they don't develop more (West offensively and Richardson defensively) over the summer to get them into games I have no problem with acquiring another wing in free agency to actually play (Azubuike for instance). For now, I am figuring on the resigning of Childress and Smith (definitely). I am not opposed to a S&T of Childress if the right deal is possible to improve the team, but I do consider that deal unlikely.

It's not an earth shattering move, but it doesn't need to be nor should anyone be hoping for a blockbuster this summer. The key to the deal is fit, flexibility, and depth. I see this one deal expanding our rotation from 8 to 10 (the rookie PF should be our Big Baby or Carl Landry) at only the real cost of a future 1st round pick (mid to late round). I admit that It doesn't add grizzled veterans although Wilkens is 28, but realistically how are we going to add them? It also doesn't interfere with any of the financials involving resigning of the Joshes nor does it require giving up on Marvin to gain the depth. It is a reasonable low risk, moderate reward deal for both teams.

[HMFFL]

Zaza Pachulia C (5.2 ppg 4.0 rpg 0.2 bpg)
Future 1st round pick (good protection on the pick)

to Seattle for

Johan Petro C (6 ppg 5.2 rpg 0.6 bpg)
Damien Wilkens SG/SF (9.2 ppg 3.2 rpg 2.0 apg)
#32 pick

Not likely Seattle accepts that.

Also can we resign both Damien Wilkens and Johan Petro two years from now? Joe Johnson and Marvin Williams will be free agents too. I'd love for us to acquire Damien Wilkens, but we already have Josh, so the size is a bigger needed, and Seattle will look for more value if they move Johan Petro.

[evildallas]

I don't believe Petro has great trade value right now. His deal is up at the end of the year. He hasn't shown the ability to be a starting C in the league although as I said he's shown some flashes. A 7 footer who shoots 41.9% from the field is going to scare off a lot of people. For us, he could be a 20 mpg backup. Seattle needs to fill a starting role while developing their next big. Zaza gives them that and his expiring deal might come in handy for them at the trade deadline. At least that's my interpretation.

As for resigning down the road? That really isn't a concern of mine in this deal. I think Petro will resign at a seasonable figure unless he has a breakout season. There is always the threat of losing him to Europe though. Damien Wilkens is up the same time as Joe, if he plays well he'll command a good portion of an MLE. If not he'll be a veteran minimum candidate. Zaza isn't a candidate for an extension in my opinion. He hasn't thrived in a backup role and isn't good enough to start. The future first would have protection to be a middle round pick at best. Those picks are hit and miss to even become rotation players, so I don't think it is a great cost. This deal is about making the team better this year and next. Making sure we get more playoff experience and don't slip back a bit. The fortunes of the team are still grounded in the starting lineup. This is a move to increase depth so the starting lineup isn't overtaxed just to get us to post-season.

[raleigh]

Honestly, I think you could take the picks out of it.

Zaza -for- Petro/Wilkins works for both teams.

[evildallas]

Honestly, I think you could take the picks out of it.

Zaza -for- Petro/Wilkins works for both teams.

I would have done that in a heartbeat, but I felt that the 3M in cap savings and the starting C upgrade wasn't enough to sell Seattle on. The thought of converting the highest of their 2nd rounders into a future 1st was the icing to seal the deal for them more than my desire to add a rookie. We could fill that role with a minimum salary addition or the LLE.

Another thought is relaxing the protection on the pick and asking for their #24 pick instead of the #32. We could then conceivably draft another C to develop like Hibbert or Thompson or McGee if he falls.