06/19 ESPN & DX.com Speculation

[emunney]

I'm definitely not a Randolph fan, but if we don't trade up for Love or Mayo, I don't think it's going to make a huge difference who we pick. I'd prefer somebody (a lot) more productive and (a lot) less mistake prone, but I can appreciate the characteristics Randolph has that make him a high ceiling guy. I don't currently see what it is about him that make people think he's going to come close to that ceiling. He has a longer path to travel than anyone else being talked about in the lotto (given that Jordan seems to be out of the running).

I'm more interested in the rest of the moves Hammond and co. make, though. I'm interested in the draft, but it's only a small part of the remaking of this team.

[Rockmaninoff]

Its not like they arent trying to make deals happen. They are. Trust me.

Thanks for all the information...

Do me a favor, foward the Hollinger and DX.com statistical analysis info to your sources so they can see just who poorly Randolph has rated in almost every catergory. Choosing him would be a huge disappointment.

Wouldn't matter...

So we made a guarantee to the workout warrior? I'm clinically depressed by that.

I'll take history and production over potential almost every time. I think it's called playing the percentages.

[paul]

Its not like they arent trying to make deals happen. They are. Trust me.

Thanks for all the information...

Do me a favor, foward the Hollinger and DX.com statistical analysis info to your sources so they can see just who poorly Randolph has rated in almost every catergory. Choosing him would be a huge disappointment.

Wouldn't matter...

I don't know Luke, not trying to get wichmae into trouble but that last exchange seems pretty straightforward to me. Does that not imply that they are sold on Randolph, and no amount of outside opinion will change their minds?

[wichmae]

I never said who we made a promise to if we keep the pick.

You guys are speculating too much. I apologize for the limited things I can give out, but realgm isn't going to cost someone their job. Sorry.

Listen, all you have to do to figure out the unknown is to group the knowns together and look big picture. I also never said the disappointment would be exactly about who we draft either.

However, with that said, I would choose Randolph over Alexander if I was the one drafting.

[carmelbrownqueen]

Randolph is more like a workout dud than a workout warrior...

[carmelbrownqueen]

I never said who we made a promise to if we keep the pick.

You guys are speculating too much. I apologize for the limited things I can give out, but realgm isn't going to cost someone their job. Sorry.

Listen, all you have to do to figure out the unknown is to group the knowns together and look big picture. I also never said the disappointment would be exactly about who we draft either.

However, with that said, I would choose Randolph over Alexander if I was the one drafting.

I understand 100% why you have to be vague, and don't doubt your sources whatsoever. I actually think you are doing a good job of keeping things really ominous because other than that you could lose a valuable resource.

Question.. did you get a chance to sit in on either of the workouts?

[wichmae]

Randolph is more like a workout dud than a workout warrior...

Depends on how you interpret things.

He worked out quite well for us actually.

[ReasonablySober]

I don't see much of a problem taking Randolph. Yes, it's high risk, high reward. But I'm willing to bet that 95% of the people on here never watched a single game of his. Had you done so you'd see a guy with some pretty extraordinary tools.

He's 18 freakin' years old. When I was 18 I was a senior in HS. He's young for his class and he went out and put up solid numbers in a major conference.

If Skiles is the coach most hope he is you can bet he'll be working night and day with this guy provided he's the pick.

[LUKE23]

I'd go Alexander over Randolph. Alexander is the better athlete, is more ready strength-wise, and he definitely has a defined position. While I agree if both hit their top ceilings Randolph would probably be a better player, I think Alexander has a far lower bust probability and will also be able to defend the perimeter better than Randolph will.

I wouldn't be irate with Randolph, but I've soured on him quite a bit in the last couple weeks.

[carmelbrownqueen]

Randolph is more like a workout dud than a workout warrior...

Depends on how you interpret things.

He worked out quite well for us actually.

Good to hear, but I'm just not sold on him, and don't believe he has a real position in the NBA based on what I have seen. Perhaps I will be wrong on him if we draft the kid.. but I would prefer Love, Alexander, Westbrook, or to move down rather than take him that high.

[Buck You]

I'd go Alexander over Randolph. Alexander is the better athlete, is more ready strength-wise, and he definitely has a defined position. While I agree if both hit their top ceilings Randolph would probably be a better player, I think Alexander has a far lower bust probability and will also be able to defend the perimeter better than Randolph will.

I wouldn't be irate with Randolph, but I've soured on him quite a bit in the last couple weeks.

I feel the same way. Although, I probably would be irate if we took Randolph.

[randy84]

Since everyone likes to compare stats, lets look at the numbers:

Freshman Year:

Joe Alexander SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2005-2006 3.6 1.3 .7 .2 .3 .67 .1 .7 .4 .500 .625 .000 1.63

Anthony Randolph SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2007-2008 32.8 15.6 8.5 1.2 3.0 .41 1.1 2.3 2.7 .464 .693 .105 1.23

So I guess I would have to say that Anthony Randolph is a better (basketball player) athlete than Joe Alexander was as a freshman. So if Anthony Randolph improves even half as much as Alexander did, he would still be the better player.

Plus don't forget the guy is only 18 and 6'10. He could possible still grow and he will definately fill out unless he has a glandular problem.

It's very rare that the Bucks are going to find a guy at #8 that is going to contribute right away. So I would rather gamble on a guy high upside then take a guy whose ceiling is going to be a role player.

[wichmae]

Just came across this Mitch Lawrence Column

[Bernman]

To Bern's post (the quoting here doesn't always post):

I've never been one to toot my own horn, but I doubt if you know more about "winning basketball" than I do. I've seen a lot more than you Bern and I trust my eye and instincts more than someone's statistical formulas. Doesn't mean I'll always make the right call (some will bring up Gadz ) but I don't have a track record for being way off on players. Just last year, I was a BIG critic of Mike Conley and did not want the Bucks to draft him. I thought that he'd be a good player, but not worthy of a top 5 pick. I feel the same way about Eric Gordon this year. Time will tell.

In regards to Randolph as he relates to the Bucks, I think it's a bit simpler than pace adjusted rebound rates and college efficiency scores. Basically, the Bucks need defenders and rebounders. We have a coach that stresses defense and punishes those who do not put forth effort and most importantly don't produce denfensively. Our GM has a track record of favoring players that have size/length/strength/athletic advantages at their respective positions.

The essential question is can Skiles take this 6-11 athletic package and mold him into a solid, role playing defensive small forward for the Milwaukee Bucks despite anything that Randolph and his college team accomplished last year? I say yes. Would Randolph better fit the role of a defensive spark plug and weakside rebounder than a guy like Alexandar....who I do like? Again, I say yes.

With all of the formulas and stats listed above as the crux of your position Bern, one would wonder why the Bucks and others are even bothering to bring Randolph in for a look. If these formulas prove that Randolph is such a bad player, then why are most projecting Randolph to be a lottery pick? At the very least, I see Randolph being a nice defensive role player at small forward. Wouldn't you agree that the best defensive prospect...when all else is equal...is just what this team needs?

You're using the straw man argument against me, Kirby. I'm not Adam, who almost solely relies upon statistics. Although in this case, almost sole use of statistics is appropriate, because they paint such a clear picture of his performance. I use a blend, and if anything favor scouting over statistics. I also use history. Every draft people fall in love with these tweeners who have out of this world athleticism FOR THEIR HEIGHT. Problem is once they move down a position they lose the athleticism advantage they once had. Also, people gush over tall guys who can dribble. In order to utilize your dribble you need some semblance of a jump shot. Randolph made 2 3's all season. Like I've said players are going to back off and he's going to penetrate on nobody. The Odom comparisons are absurd. You keep saying that Odom had more turnovers (slightly) in college, but his assist total was incomparable. I've also scouted Randolph a bit directly and he just doesn't have a quick first step or lateral movement for a 3. He's fast, but not quick. Quickness is more important, see Yi. Like Emunney stated, his defensive awareness is poor. He plays like he's half asleep.

You obviously have a bias towards tall guys with "effort" (on the surface) stats because I seem to remember you saying, "what we don't need guys who block shots and rebound" before. You're being reactive toward the Bucks' needs the past few years. Maybe we should just peruse the national college basketball block leaders and make our selections based on those rankings:

00-01: Tarvis Williams, Wojciech Myrda, Eddie Griffin, Kris Hunter, and Ken Johnson; those guys killed it in the NBA.

01-02: Myrda, D'or Fisher, Emeka Okafor, Justin Rowe, Deng Gai; Okafor has been solid, but a bit of a disappointment, the rest I couldn't pick out of a lineup

02-03: Okafor, Nick Billings, Rowe, Gai, Robert Battle

03-04: Some of the previous guys, Anwar Ferguson, Garrick Morris

04-05: Gai, Shawn James, Shelden Williams, Kyle Hines, Dwayne Jones

Most of these players you or I have never heard of, and the rest were all disappointments in the NBA. That's because in the NBA you don't have an advantage just by being tall. Everybody is tall.

Outside of Gadzuric, I don't really know what your track record is on individual players. If he and Randolph are any indicator.......

You're tooting your horn about Mike Conley when the guy was 20 years old last season? He hasn't proven his worth as a player either way yet. That's something to boast about? That tells me all I need to know.

[wichmae]

Randolph also I think is the youngest player in the draft..

[RAtheMONsession]

Just came across this Mitch Lawrence Column

what is it? i look at it says Mitch Lawrence with his picture on there

Can you post the article please

[LUKE23]

Since everyone likes to compare stats, lets look at the numbers:

Freshman Year:

Joe Alexander SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2005-2006 3.6 1.3 .7 .2 .3 .67 .1 .7 .4 .500 .625 .000 1.63

Anthony Randolph SEASON MIN PTS REB AST TO A/T STL BLK PF FG% FT% 3P% PPS
2007-2008 32.8 15.6 8.5 1.2 3.0 .41 1.1 2.3 2.7 .464 .693 .105 1.23

So I guess I would have to say that Anthony Randolph is a better (basketball player) athlete than Joe Alexander was as a freshman. So if Anthony Randolph improves even half as much as Alexander did, he would still be the better player.

Plus don't forget the guy is only 18 and 6'10. He could possible still grow and he will definately fill out unless he has a glandular problem.

It's very rare that the Bucks are going to find a guy at #8 that is going to contribute right away. So I would rather gamble on a guy high upside then take a guy whose ceiling is going to be a role player.

Can't really compare them as freshman though. Randolph was a highly touted AA, Alexander was a guy who barely got recruited. Alexander has only been playing basketball since he was 16 (21 now). Alexander's best days are in front of him as a player.

Regarding the weight, to say he will definitely fill out doesn't make sense. Some people have the body types that cannot put on weight (Tayshaun Prince is a good example), but the issue there is that Randolph has a 4 skillset in a 3 body, he's going to have to put on weight if he wants to be successful, and that is going to take time.

I see the intrigue with Randolph, but he's the definition of high-risk high-reward, and right now IMO the risk is higher going by all the information available.

[Bernman]

Just came across this Mitch Lawrence Column

Wich, all you posted was the guy's picture.

[wichmae]

The Bucks are sending out strong signals that they like LSU's Anthony Randolph at No. 8. A legitimate 6-10, Randolph has been called a cross between Tayshaun Prince and Odom. But West Virginia small forward Joe Alexander, a hard-nosed worker, is seen as a better fit with new coach Scott Skiles. ...

Portland is shopping its pick (No. 13), hoping to include it in a package with G Jarrett Jack and Travis Outlaw for a veteran shooter, such as Memphis' Mike Miller. … Seattle is looking to move veteran F Chris Wilcox, while also trying to move up two spots to No. 2 for Michael Beasley. Miami could move down to the Sonics' spot to grab O.J. Mayo, who has been working out in recent weeks in Chicago with Dwyane Wade. But the Sonics don't have a lot to offer Miami. Mayo's work ethic has been compared to Bryant's - which is really saying something - and his vertical leap was measured at 40 inches. … Minnesota is leaning toward taking UCLA's Kevin Love at No. 3, meaning Stanford's Brook Lopez could fall to Indiana at 11. … At 10, the Nets reportedly are locked in on F Danilo Gallinari. … Chicago is saying it will take Derrick Rose or Beasley, but the bet here is Rose. … Sacramento is hoping that Georgetown C Roy Hibbert is available at No. 12, and he should be. … Gilbert Arenas isn't leaving Washington, despite opting out of the last year of his contract, which would have paid him around $13 million next season. Arenas and the Wizards have secretly agreed on a new multi-year deal, according to a GM friend of Washington executive Ernie Grunfeld. ... Players who are apt to be impacted the most by the new anti-flopping rule are Cleveland's Anderson Varejao; San Antonio's Fabricio Oberto and Tony Parker, and the Lakers' Derek Fisher. Among the quartet, Parker flops almost exclusively when he has the ball and is on his way to the basket. So, yes, officials will be looking for actors at both ends of the court, and fines will be the same.

[DanoMac]

Just came across this Mitch Lawrence Column

Link doesn't work