My case for keeping JO

[granger05]

It seems like trading JO has been a topic on the forums as long as I've been visiting them. I think that the best player on every team and any player making this much money becomes the subject of extra scrutiny. For the last several years JO certainly hasn't been earning his contract mainly due to injuries. His leadership, and attitude have been called into question by Pacer fans and by fans of every team that he's been linked with by trade rumors. From the perspective of a fan it's hard to quanitfy those qualities, but lately the knock on JO seems to be that even in the unlikely event of full health he's washed up.

I don't agree, and here's my cherry picked evidence to prove my point. In 15 games in December of this season between his early season issues and reaggravating his meniscus tear, JO put up these numbers. This represents a healthy 20% of a season and was only about 6 months ago.
19.1 points, 7.9 rebounds, 2.6 blocks, 48.5% shooting

These compare pretty favorably to these guys that played in the frontcourt for the eastern conference allstar team.
20.7 points, 14.2 rebounds, 2.2 blocks, 59.9% shooting (Dwight Howard)
22.3 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.0 blocks, 49.4% shooting (Chris Bosh)
21.4 points, 10.2 rebounds, 0.4 blocks, 43.6% shooting (Antawn Jamison)
18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 53.9% shooting (Kevin Garnett)
12.7 points, 6.6 rebounds, 1.7 blocks, 43.2% shooting (Rasheed Wallace)

In the case of those last two guys their numbers aren't too impressive, but both of them got traded and then won championships. Here are the western allstars.

19.3 points, 11.3 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 49.7% shooting (Tim Duncan)
22.0 points, 10.8 rebounds, 2.0 blocks, 50.7% shooting (Yao Ming)
21.1 points, 10.4 rebounds, 0.5 blocks, 54.7% shooting (Carlos Boozer)
25.2 points, 9.1 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 59.0% shooting (Amare Stoudemire)
20.6 points, 8.9 rebounds, 1.3 blocks, 48.2% shooting (David West)

And finally, a few other notables.

17.6 points, 8.0 rebounds, 1.9 blocks, 45.6% shooting (Elton Brand, this is only 8 games of work)
13.1 points, 10.2 rebounds, 2.1 blocks, 63.6% shooting (Andrew Bynum)
18.8 points, 7.8 rebounds, 1.6 blocks, 58.9% shooting (Pau Gasol, post-trade only)
21.1 points, 11.1 rebounds, 1.5 blocks, 50.0% shooting (Al Jefferson)
12.9 points, 10.6 rebounds, 1.2 blocks, 61.1% shooting (Shaq, again post-trade only)
9.1 points, 13.1 rebounds, 3.6 blocks, 45.0% shooting (Marcus Camby)

Six months ago, for the one month he managed to stay "completely" healthy, JO put up numbers on par or better than several allstars (Garnett, Wallace, Jamison, Bosh, Duncan, and West). It's easy to make the case that he can't stay healthy, but I just don't agree that if he pulls his health together he can't play. Also, I left Camby as the last guy on that list. He's 34 now and he's made a couple allstar teams himself recently. In the seasons that he turned 28 and 29, he played 29 games a season and memorably returned to the injured list with a pinkie injury just after a return to active duty. O'neal has played 12 seasons, but due to his early career in Portland and then all these missed games he has a lost less mileage on his tires than guys that you could call his contemporaries. Kobe and Garnett both came in from high school around JO and they've played a total of 32,570 regular season minutes and 37,863 regular season minutes respectively. JO has only played 20,432 regular season minutes. I don't see any reason that he couldn't bounce back like Camby has done to finish off the last years of his career with, relative, good health.

I still don't have a problem with trading JO for the right deal, but I don't think we should trade him for a middling pick or a good, but not great player with no upside. I think he can prove that he still has a lot of value. At the very least, let him play a month or so in a Pacer's uniform like he did last December and then see what the offers look like.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

Very well said. I could not agree more. I really want to see what JO can do when he has 2 great wings in Dunleavy and Granger spreading the floor for him. Remember, we really didn't see that until the end of the year and when they were all playing together they played great. Last time JO had 2 great wings(Artest/Miller) he seemed to do pretty well if you ask me. I would love to see JO/Granger/Dunleavy all on the court together before making any decision whether or not to trade him. Especially when it is likely that we will have Augustin to get the ball to those 3.

The only offer and I mean the only offer I would accept for JO is the rumor surrounding JO to the Bulls for Hinrich and Thomas. Outside of that, there has not been 1 rumor that I like. I would only do the Hinrich/Thomas one because I really like Thomas and he could emerge with our offense.

Obviously I'm not about to say "Well JO will stay healthy this year!" But it actually looks like this could be the year which he stays healthy for a lot of it. Every year he has done a lot of off-season basketball with Team USA, this is his first real rest from it. I'm not saying we should never trade JO, but I think we should at least see what he can do with the improved Granger and Dunleavy. Granger is having another off-season to get better too. I can almost guarantee he is working on finishing in the paint and his defense. If he gets better(which I think most of us suspect), he would be a great wing for JO to play off of, he is anyway, but it could be like the old Artest/JO days without the headaches.

[Miller4ever]

Yes, he's a great player, and yes, your argument is a very good one. I do hope, however, that we don't try to make him our leader. He is a good professional, save a haymaker in Palace of Auburn Hills, and he performs well when healthy and uninjured, but he is not the guy that carries his team on his shoulders. The same goes for the other two wingmen. If all goes well, we could see ourselves getting up to the 5th seed, but we'd still fall early because we don't have a man who steps up, rather than steps away from a fadeaway miss. I think that the only reason we should trade JO is if we find that leader personality.

[Crossova21]

Yea I agree. Everyone knows that the team leader should be a guard (Kobe, Nash, Paul, Williams etc.). Ahem, all the more reason to draft Augustin. I personally don't think O'neal is washed up because when he came back from the injury last season he was still putting up numbers. To me J.O. is like a Rasheed on the Pistons or a Amare Stoudamire on the Suns. Good enough to be a star but not the best on the team.

Teams like the Lakers, Rockets, and Heat are carried by one or two people. However with Pacers, having O'neal, Granger, Dunleavy, and possibly Augustin means that every player must contribute EQUALLY. Why trade J.O. when that would leave a void at PF. Imagine if the Pistons had trade Rasheed during their championship run. I understand that a lot of people want to start over, but at least you know what you're going to get out of J.O. Even if we were to move into the top 5 there's no guarantee that who we select will be a star.

Keep J.O. I think he would be happy to work with Granger and Dunleavy. Now just get him a point guard he can rely on.

[IndieRuso420]

I like JO and understand he still has talent, but it is impossible to gauge how much he has left in the tank. My GUESS is that he has next to nothing left.

I don't want to hear "well, he is completely healthy now this summer." We hear that same crap every season.

As far as I am concerned, regardless of age, think about the Pacers having a 12th year big man with knee troubles. That is not the type of player you hinge your season on.

Add the fact that this team is not a title contender with or without JO.

That concludes me to believe there is really no reason to hang onto JO.

The future is the only way the Pacers become a title contender, and our future hinges on getting some young talent back for JO so this team can start over.

[granger05]

I agree that he hasn't proven he can stay healthy and I have a "believe it when I see it" approach, but I don't believe that he has nothing left in the tank. When trade proposals come along we talk about the risk that other teams are taking in bringing on JO's contract and balky knee. However, we neglect the real possibility that the risk just earned them an allstar big man which is what my previous post was trying to show. There is still potential upside for any team that trades for Jermaine. I also agree with you that most people here feel it's time to move on and get younger. I'd love a deal like the CHI rumor that brings in young talent for him. However, you yourself have been proposing trades like a bunch of expirings from Sacto and the #12 pick. I've even caught myself nodding in agreement with some of those proposals.

I think that taking a minute to look at JO's monthly split stats over the last few years will convince you that he still can play when his knee co-operates. I think the Pacers should be careful about dealing him for a poo-poo platter.

[cdash]

Here's a question you need to take into account: Does JO even want to be here?

[IndieRuso420]

I will agree to say that it would be smart to let JO try and build his value if he is not traded this summer. If JO is not dealt before or during the draft, there is really no point in moving him until somewhere near mid-season.

[granger05]

Here's a question you need to take into account: Does JO even want to be here?

Who cares? There are knocks on his leadership skills, but no one doubts that he isn't professional. I think that it's a tough situation for him and for us as fans because it's seemed like he has one foot out the door so many times. In the end though he gets paid to play no matter where he is. Kobe demanded a trade and the Lakers just ignored him. That worked out OK.

I'll edit this to add that what I think you're asking is code for "he's more likely to play hurt for a different team." That charge gets levied against players all the time. I think it's obviously hard to argue either side without the particulars. I do think that for any injury the decision on when a player comes back is between a player and the team. It depends on the injury, but also the situations. For example, Boston shut down Paul Pierce two years ago while tanking. Miami did the same thing to DWade this season. We should have done that with JO two seasons ago when our first round pick was on the line (top ten protected). I haven't seen anything from JO that makes me think he doesn't want to play when he can, but that's just my opinion.

[joew8302]

I agree with keeping JO, but for different reasons. I have become sick and tired of JO being hurt and hearing him being talked up about how healthy he is. He always seems like a terribly crunch time performer, and is much better suited for a robin role as opposed to batman. I am sick of JO when it is all said and done and want him out of Indy.

That said we would get pennies on the dollar in a trade now. I am in the camp that says lets bring him back and see if he has a good half season and try to get value then. Our hand was forced and we had to take lowball offers for Artest and that wasn't fun. Our hand isn't exactly forced here, so it makes no sense to rush and trade Jermaine for the sake of trading him now.

[cdash]

Here's a question you need to take into account: Does JO even want to be here?

Who cares? There are knocks on his leadership skills, but no one doubts that he isn't professional. I think that it's a tough situation for him and for us as fans because it's seemed like he has one foot out the door so many times. In the end though he gets paid to play no matter where he is. Kobe demanded a trade and the Lakers just ignored him. That worked out OK.

I'll edit this to add that what I think you're asking is code for "he's more likely to play hurt for a different team." That charge gets levied against players all the time. I think it's obviously hard to argue either side without the particulars. I do think that for any injury the decision on when a player comes back is between a player and the team. It depends on the injury, but also the situations. For example, Boston shut down Paul Pierce two years ago while tanking. Miami did the same thing to DWade this season. We should have done that with JO two seasons ago when our first round pick was on the line (top ten protected). I haven't seen anything from JO that makes me think he doesn't want to play when he can, but that's just my opinion.

I didnt really mean it as him being more likely to play hurt for another team. Kobe demanding a trade is a far different bird than JO asking for one (if he has). Kobe is the best player in the game. Its hard to get equal value for a guy like that. The only reason he rescinded the demand is because a) The Lakers were playing well and b) Pau Gasol was delivered to his doorstep.

If JO doesnt want to be here, at least he is being respectful about it and not crying to the media. He has done a lot for this franchise and if we are going to rebuild, he probably would rather not waste two or three years not competing while he is in his early 30s. I think it would show class from the organization to grant him his wish. If he has had one foot out the door, it hasnt been by his own doing (besides when he was a free agent and nearly signed with San Antonio). He cant control trade rumors.

[joew8302]

If JO didn't want to be here he should have opted out. I am sure Pacers fans and management would have been thankful. No one put a gun to his head and forced him to sign a long term contract. He has only himself to blame for the position he is in, if he doesn't like it tough.