Live Draft Lottery Talk; Heat have deal for #2? Pg 59

[MartyConlonJr]

holy crap, I am watching the NBATV draft show and Jonathan Givony is cohosting it with Ian Eagle.

WTG Jonathan.
Unbelievable.

They are reshowing it every couple of hours, it's 2 hours long.

I forgot to post it before, and it's not as exciting after this news, but it looks like Givony/DraftExpress is now affiliated with yahoo sports (my fav bball info site)

http://sports.yahoo.com/nba/news?slug=y ... &type=lgns

Moving on up!!!!

[cocktailswith_2short]

Earlier today on espn, They talked about a rumor. Miami Trades, 2# Beasley,Blount for Wilcox,4#. Then the heat would trade 4#,Marion,Filler for Brand,Magette. Then they said that the suns are hot for Magette and that could break everything. But lets say its all true, Would you be happy?

C-Wilcox-Z0
PF-Brand-Haslem
SF-Magette-Dorell
SG-Wade-Cook
PG(FA)-Quinn.

Are you happy? also what if miami could restart the Haslem for Hinrich trade. Say Haslem,Cook for Hinrich.

Wilcox-Z0
Brand
Magette-Dorell
Wade
Hinrich

Hinrich is not being traded for Haslem .

[Miami's Finest]

Jonathan G is on NBA TV Draft special on now. Also Andy Katz said on the Espn special the Bulls have told Beasley they still are considering taking him.

[Lane1974]

how can the Bulls not know? smokescreening bastages

[LEIF]

In Ira's lateste blog he plays deal maker with Marion to New York for Stephon Marbury and the 6th pick.....this deal I must admit I like, adding Beasley and someone like Russell Westbrook to Wade and Haslem with an eye to BIG cap space to add one more BIG piece....I like that avenue

[HeatSince88]

Over the past couple of days, I’ve heard from three different team-connected sources that something may be happening with Beasley. Mind you, these are all people without direct connection to any potential negotiations and no-one has quite the same tale to tell: One source says Mike Conley is included but not the #5 pick, another says Mike Miller is included but not Conley, and the third didn’t have any particulars but had the sense that something is afoot involving Beasley. I don’t put much stock into any of these tips individually, but, collectively, it’s clear that there’s a lot of scuttle about a potential Beasley deal surrounding the team.

On another note, with ESPN 730’s The Geoff and Gary Show off the air, I turned the radio on to Sports 56 this morning and heard George Lapides report that former Griz point guard Jason Williams has told local confidants he expects to return to the Grizzlies next season. I didn’t think much of this, but later in the morning I heard the exact same thing from someone unaware of the Lapides report. Apparently, Williams was in Memphis recently and did tell local friends he expects to be back.

Upon reflection, I don’t think this is as crazy as it appears. The people Williams appeared to have the most problems with during his last stint (aside from Geoff Calkins, anyway) were Pau Gasol and Mike Fratello, and they’re both gone. Williams apparently has a good relationship with Mike Miller (here for now) and, more importantly, Mike Heisley. If the Grizzlies did a draft-day trade that involved Conley or Kyle Lowry, then a veteran point guard would be a need next season. Williams, a free agent, is sure to be someone’s back-up next season, and probably for very cheap. Not totally crazy to think it could be in Memphis.

http://cmimemphis.com/grizblog/node/312

[LEIF]

if we deal with Memphis I want Mike Miller, Mike Conley AND #5 AND we keep Udonis Haslem or no deal.

the deal would have to look like Mark Blount, Marcus Banks and #2 (Beasley) for Mike Miller, Mike Conley and #5.(Kevin Love)

and I dont think thats happening....

[Miami's Finest]

if we deal with Memphis I want Mike Miller, Mike Conley AND #5 AND we keep Udonis Haslem or no deal.

the deal would have to look like Mark Blount, Marcus Banks and #2 (Beasley) for Mike Miller, Mike Conley and #5.(Kevin Love)

and I dont think thats happening....

Yeah thats the only way I would view the deal as acceptable for us and I still rather have Beasley. They will still get the best player in the trade, and while we add shooters Wade still has to create all our offense.

[MartyConlonJr]

The biggest thing about the top 5 is that the players are sounding relatively set.

1. Rose - Sounds like that's a lock. BULLS
2. Beasley - You HAVE to take Beasley here. The jump from 2 to 3 is just too significant to not try and trade down.
3. Mayo - It seems he has solidified the 3rd best player in the draft, it is widely expected he will not drop further - which is why trade rumours with Miami for 4th or 5th pick are resigned to not getting Mayo.
4. Bayless - Lock to go to Seattle it seems, they need a PG, he is the best available.SEATTLE
5. Unknown, but seems to be tending to Love as the consensus.

So Miami has the #2, but (assuming no smokescreens) wants Mayo, who will probably not get past #3
Minnesota has the #3 but is an unfavourable destination for Mayo, and many think he doesn't fit there, while Love is rumoured to be a great fit, won't have troubles being in Minnesota, but is considered a reach at #3.
Memphis at #5 needs to rebuild in a big way and needs a cornerstone player (Like Beasley) but won't have him at #5. Memphis has trading pieces (like Miller, cap room, young PG's) to make a move.

IF we are indeed getting all gassed up for Mayo, there seems to be 3 teams with aligning draft slots that could work on a trade.

At a first look - here is a trade that works:

Miami trades:
#2 pick
Blount
Banks

Miami receives:
#3 pick

Memphis trades:
#5 pick (Kevin Love)
Mike Miller

Memphis receives:
#2 pick (Michael Beasley)
Mark Blount
Marko Jaric

Minnesota trades:
#3 pick (O.J Mayo)
Marko Jaric

Minnesota receives:
#5 pick (Kevin Love)
Mike Miller

Miami:
C - Mourning / ?
PF - Haslem / Anthony
SF - Marion / Wright
SG - Wade / Cook
PG - Mayo / Quinn

Possibilities:
Jason Williams (1 yr), Ricky Davis (1 yr), MLE, LLE, $11.5 mill TPE
or
9 million under salary cap

Next offseason:
C - ? / ?
PF - ? / Haslem
SF - ? / ?
SG -Wade / Cook
PG - Mayo / ?

$28,754,152 = $31 million under the cap

Not sure I'd do it, but these three teams (again, if thats what Riley REALLY wants) seem to have the right pick for the players each other wants.

[GameTime_3]

Riley staged two separate secret workouts in Miami on Tuesday. The first, a source told ESPN.com, was for Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless. The second was for USC guard O.J. Mayo, who confirmed to ESPN.com that he worked out for the team.

In conjunction with the workouts, the Heat have been actively shopping the second pick in the draft with an eye on selecting Mayo or Bayless lower while acquiring another asset.

Still think all the talk is a smokescreen? Riley is going to trade the pick, I can feel it.

[Miami's Finest]

Riley staged two separate secret workouts in Miami on Tuesday. The first, a source told ESPN.com, was for Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless. The second was for USC guard O.J. Mayo, who confirmed to ESPN.com that he worked out for the team.

In conjunction with the workouts, the Heat have been actively shopping the second pick in the draft with an eye on selecting Mayo or Bayless lower while acquiring another asset.

Still think all the talk is a smokescreen? Riley is going to trade the pick, I can feel it.

I could see us adding another pick, like the Memphis pick without giving up Beasley. Katz said earlier Memphis was talking to NY about David Lee for the #5 pick, so maybe we get a player and #5 for Marion from them.

[GameTime_3]

"The Portland Trail Blazers will acquire the 27th pick in the draft from New Orleans in exchange for cash considerations, according to a report from ESPN.

The deal was agreed to verbally between the two teams on Tuesday night, according to the source. The teams have scheduled a trade call with the league in the morning to make the deal official."

Why is it that everyone buys picks but us? 27 pick could net you some really nice players in this draft.

[Flix360]

i cant believe we worked out mayo and bayless - which still doesnt assure beasley.

just ---- riley, why just dont u draft, keep and retain beasley? period, amen, call it a day, no more ----ing anything seriously its just beasley, your not isiah or chris wallace just draft beasley, period, period and another period, jeees.

whats with the fascination with mayo riley? seriously beasley, even if we have the 1st pick, might even get a lot of supporters if we did land the 1st pick u dont realise if we land beasley, its god- send steal yet u will pick jerryd bayless or oj mayo to lead our franchise?
i dunno but just damn keep beasley, no other stuff bud.

why r u always making small things look big? huh? ive had enough patience of you.

i do hope ur just joking around and in the end ull keep beasley, meaning all those trade rumors, mayo-to-mia rumors, mayo/bayless/love manlove, and now this bayless/mayo workout put to rest and just jees just draf beastley.

[perz260]

Riley staged two separate secret workouts in Miami on Tuesday. The first, a source told ESPN.com, was for Arizona point guard Jerryd Bayless. The second was for USC guard O.J. Mayo, who confirmed to ESPN.com that he worked out for the team.

In conjunction with the workouts, the Heat have been actively shopping the second pick in the draft with an eye on selecting Mayo or Bayless lower while acquiring another asset.

Still think all the talk is a smokescreen? Riley is going to trade the pick, I can feel it.

I think you are jumping to conclusions too quickly...I agree with other posters that we might be trying to get another pick using marion as bait. Listen Riley does not live in a cocoon, I am sure that he has sensed the mood around town. He knows that he is going to be lambasted across town in both print media and tv for trading the pick for what is being reported. I mean dave hyde just put the clamps on his nuts with the article about beasley, how he is the best thing since sliced bread. I will go back to the article about kaman and the 2003 draft, IF everybody in the scouting section and pfund is telling him that beasley is the best prospect and there is a clear separation between him and the next group of players, then i think Riley keeps the pick. Thinking back on all of his trades with the Heat i cant think of one that would be greeted with such immediate negative feedback from both the media and the fans if he trades the pick. In fact almost every major trade that riles has done has been looked on favorably (Rice for Mourning, Willis for Hardaway, Mashburn/mason for Eddie Jones, Shaq for Marion etc..). Plus i would like to know what is the role of Arison in this? We have an owner who is an admitted basketball fan that listens to sports radio to get a sense of the perception among fans of the team. He admitted as much on a radio interview this year when the season was winding down (he also talked about how this was shaping up as a situation similar to when the Spurs had that horrible year and got Duncan)

[miamiballer]

if riley f's this up (he will)

que pinga

[Lane1974]

don't be so quick to judge, Riley's mindset is turning the ship around ASAP
he won't trade Beasley just for Mayo and nothing, he has a master plan, and just about every bold stroke he has done has worked for the Heat in the past
his model is the Celtics not the Hawks

also, ESPN radio just was talking about the draft, 9 of the past 20 #1 picks have been unworthy of that status -- so Danny Manning, Pervis Ellison, and Glenn Robinson was someone's Beasley once

[LEIF]

also, ESPN radio just was talking about the draft, 9 of the past 20 #1 picks have been unworthy of that status -- so Danny Manning, Pervis Ellison, and Glenn Robinson was someone's Beasley once

yeah that was on Mike & Mike, they looked at the last 20 #1 overall picks and 10 were considered busts relative to their draft position and 10 panned out.....50/50 isnt that great of odds, I trust Riley in whatever decision he makes

[heat4life]

I guess we would have to look at the track record of the GM's who were picking #1 in the last 20 years as well. A great stat filled college season and some hype definitely gets you drafted in the top of any draft.

[SA37]

50-50 is great odds if you're talking about living up to #1 status, which I am assuming is at least being a very good player in the league.

Magic Johnson, James Worthy, Hakeem Olajuwon, Patrick Ewing, David Robinson, Shaquille O'Neal, Chris Webber, Allen Iverson, Tim Duncan, Elton Brand, Yao Ming, LeBron James, and Dwight Howard.

That's 13 out of the last 30 draft picks, and on that list I am not including Larry Johnson, who was excellent until his back gave out, Greg Oden, who hasn't had a chance to show what he can do yet, and Glenn Robinson, who still had a very good career.

So, you have a 50-50 shot of coming up with a HOFer. I'd say those are fantastic odds.

[HeatSince88]

Also, that 50/50 stat ignores a factor that can happen to any player: injury.

Danny Manning showed great promise early on, but injuries took his game away. Same with Pervis Ellison. Might do the same with Oden.

But since these same injury issues can happen to anyone, you could very well have traded #1 for a proven vet, and he would have just as much chance at career-ending injuries. Thus, a proven vet is no guarantee either, just like Manning, Ellison, and Oden were not.

If you take injured players out of the boom-vs-bust equation (since it has an eqaul chnace of happening on either side of the equation), you probably have a 75% chance at a 12-year franchise player this high in the draft, or a 100% chance at a 5-7 year franchise player if you trade the pick.