The N.B.A. holds its draft in a Manhattan theater, a setting that evokes drama, colorful characters and wily plot twists. It is, in the best of years, a night of exultation and exclamation marks. This is not one of those years.
Most experts are calling Thursday’s event a two-man draft. One Western Conference general manager called it a one-man draft. An Eastern Conference player personnel director called it “a great draft for solid N.B.A. players,” which was a bit of a backhanded compliment.
Derrick Rose, the Memphis point guard, is a near lock to be taken No. 1 by the Chicago Bulls. Michael Beasley, the Kansas State power forward, will probably be taken second by the Miami Heat. They are, by nearly all accounts, the only players who will make an immediate impact or become future All-Stars.
After those two, the night will belong to players who are too short, too thin or too raw, one-dimensional, immature or simply untested. Many will become useful players, but few are likely to be starters.
So the usual draft-night exclamation points will be replaced by another form of punctuation.
“Every one of these guys has a question mark,” said Jay Bilas, an ESPN analyst. “Every one of them.”
As he ran down the list of prospects in a conference call Monday, Bilas frequently referred to prospects with great “tools” who may or may not have “the key to the toolbox.” That description may fit every player from No. 3 through No. 60.
“For anybody really after 2, I don’t see a guy that’s necessarily going to help put 10 more wins on your board, like some of the guys that have gone 1 through 12 the last couple years,” said the Eastern Conference player personnel director, who, like other team executives, asked to remain anonymous because he did not want to be seen as denigrating future N.B.A. players.
It is a good year to be drafting in the second round, and a bad year to be drafting low in the first round, where the players get two-year guaranteed deals but may not be any better than those taken 15 spots later. The stars of draft night will be Rose and Beasley, freshmen with short résumés but considerable gifts.
Rose, who led Memphis to the N.C.A.A. championship game, has a rare combination of speed and strength, the ability to finish at the basket and the instincts to make the best play. In an era of combo guards and shoot-first point guards, Rose is a true point guard who can score in bunches but looks for his teammates first. He has drawn comparisons to Chris Paul of the New Orleans Hornets.
Beasley is a gifted scorer who can make the game look effortless, whether he is working close to the basket or shooting midrange jumpers. He has drawn comparisons to a young Derrick Coleman. Beasley is listed at 6 feet 10 inches but is believed to be an inch or two shorter, raising questions about his effectiveness as an N.B.A. power forward.
The 6-3, 190-pound Rose has loudly proclaimed his desire to play for his hometown Bulls, and they will almost certainly grant his wish.
“For me, it’s a one-man draft,” said the Western Conference general manager, who called Rose “far and away your best bet.” He said that Beasley was the type of forward who came along once every two years, whereas someone like Rose came along once every five.
At least eight lottery teams — including the Knicks, at No. 6 — are searching for a starting point guard, but they will come away with imperfect alternatives. After Rose, the next best options are all combo guards, or undersize shooting guards, including O. J. Mayo of Southern California, Jerryd Bayless of Arizona and Russell Westbrook of U.C.L.A. The next best true point guard is the Texas sophomore D. J. Augustin, but his height — listed at 5-11 — is a concern.
The strength of the draft is actually in the frontcourt. Ten 7-footers could be drafted, four in the first round, led by Stanford center Brook Lopez; his twin, Robin (also of Stanford); DeAndre Jordan of Texas A&M; and JaVale McGee of Nevada.
“I don’t love the quality of the bigs,” said the Western Conference general manager, who said that there were no Greg Odens or even a Chris Kaman in the bunch. But a team may find a Kendrick Perkins.
Scouts and draft watchers seem to be in agreement on the top 11 players, if not necessarily the order. The group is expected to include Rose, Beasley, Brook Lopez, Westbrook, Mayo, Augustin, U.C.L.A. forward Kevin Love, Indiana shooting guard Eric Gordon, West Virginia forward Joe Alexander, forward Danilo Gallinari from Italy and L.S.U. forward Anthony Randolph.
The real suspense may not be about who gets drafted and when, but where each player ends up by the end of the night. For a variety of reasons — mainly the dearth of elite talent — league executives expect an active trade market. It could be similar to 2006, when five of the top eight picks were traded in a generally weak draft.
The Knicks, the Portland Trail Blazers and the Los Angeles Clippers are among the lottery teams who could try to trade down because they need proven veterans more than they need prospects.
“But it’s a tough call,” the Eastern Conference player personnel director said. “You don’t want to get caught passing up a Randolph or Gordon because they could take three or four years to develop. It’s easier to write about doing it and say a team could do it than it is for a team to actually do it.”
Hmm. All teams that we have been talking with. Kerr seems to know what he's doing.
but i would like the 6th pick from new york as well and dont want anything to do with any of their players except Lee or Robinson. SO PFFTTT new york. and we cant trade barbosa to two teams (UNFORTUNATELY LOL).. so diaw needs to net us some PICKS!!
