At what age is a player no longer a MVP candidate or top 5

[JordansBulls]

Guys like Jordan and Karl Malone were top players in the league at 35 and each won MVP's of the league at that age, but who else was that good at that age?

With that in mind, at what age is a player no longer a MVP candidate or top 5 player in the league?

[TrueLAfan]

I’ve noted this before…it depends more on minutes played than years. (Call it the Indiana Jones Rule—“It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage.”) And big men tend to be more durable than smaller guys. Malone is a bit of an outlier, but his skills started to drop after 2000. He had played about 44000 regular season minutes and never had a major injury. Kareem was still great in 1985 and 1986, good enough to finish in the top 5 of MVP voting. He had played about 48000 regular season minutes. I don't even know how to judge Wilt...he was still a top 5 player when he retired, andhe'd played almost 48000 minutes.

For most people and (especially) smaller players, it’s sooner. Jordan retired for the second time after about 36000 regular season minutes. He was still great, but I think his physical skills and overall play had started to erode in his final season and would have continued to if he’d kept playing. Gary Payton started to drop off after about 35000 regular season minutes. Same with Jerry West.

So, for instance, I’d say that Tim Duncan (about 31000 regular season minutes) will be a top 5 player longer than Kevin Garnett (about 37000), even though Garnett is a month younger. All players start to lose physical skills earlier than that, but the smarter players can compensate for it. For a while. Once you pass 40000-45,000 for a big man, or 36000-41000 for a smaller guy, it’s really hard or impossible to keep the level of your play up that high.

[tracey_nice]

Lol, you can't just come up with some magical age, were people just stop being great or whatever; its relative to each individual.

[drza]

I’ve noted this before…it depends more on minutes played than years. (Call it the Indiana Jones Rule—“It’s not the years, honey, it’s the mileage.”) And big men tend to be more durable than smaller guys. Malone is a bit of an outlier, but his skills started to drop after 2000. He had played about 44000 regular season minutes and never had a major injury. Kareem was still great in 1985 and 1986, good enough to finish in the top 5 of MVP voting. He had played about 48000 regular season minutes. I don't even know how to judge Wilt...he was still a top 5 player when he retired, andhe'd played almost 48000 minutes.

For most people and (especially) smaller players, it’s sooner. Jordan retired for the second time after about 36000 regular season minutes. He was still great, but I think his physical skills and overall play had started to erode in his final season and would have continued to if he’d kept playing. Gary Payton started to drop off after about 35000 regular season minutes. Same with Jerry West.

So, for instance, I’d say that Tim Duncan (about 31000 regular season minutes) will be a top 5 player longer than Kevin Garnett (about 37000), even though Garnett is a month younger. All players start to lose physical skills earlier than that, but the smarter players can compensate for it. For a while. Once you pass 40000-45,000 for a big man, or 36000-41000 for a smaller guy, it’s really hard or impossible to keep the level of your play up that high.

I think this is an interesting way to look at it, but IMO if you're going to judge based on minutes then you have to factor in postseason minutes as well. In fact, you might have to factor them in even more, because those minutes are generally played at max intensity and they cut significantly into your offseason recovery time. I would think that your analysis with the postseason factored in would put your big-men drop-off closer to 50,000 minutes, and would also have Duncan (roughly 37,000 minutes) and KG (roughly 40,500) closer together in minutes played.

[Wade2k6]

Yeah I'd say it's reletive to the individual as well.

A player out of highschool will most likely breakdown at a younger age then a 5th year senior drafted at 23 years old. Obviously that can't happen anymore but you get the point. It's reletive to the player or certain individual

[The_Believer]

There's no specific age or even minutes of decline. It has more to do with how well that player conditions himself IMO, just look at Malone.

[ThaRegul8r]

Lol, you can't just come up with some magical age, were people just stop being great or whatever; its relative to each individual.

^

[TrueLAfan]

I've done the studies with post season minute...sometimes it seems more effective. But other times, it seems to be irrelevant. You can go either way (add about 4000-5000 minutes to each set of totals for combined regular season/playoff minutes.

There's no specific age or even minutes of decline. It has more to do with how well that player conditions himself IMO, just look at Malone.

Not really. Karl Malone was, indeed, an amazing physical specimen. But there are lots of guys in great shape that work really hard. Malone is an outlier; he's like the smart kid in the class that busts the curve. There are thousands and thousands of NBA player in history. There are exactly three that have had a top 10 level seasons after playing more than 40,000 regular season minutes...Wilt, Kareem, and Malone. It's not so much being in good condition--Buck Williams was a terrific athlete that never missed games and stayed in top condition. Like most people, he wore down. That's why this

Lol, you can't just come up with some magical age, were people just stop being great or whatever; its relative to each individual.

is also wrong. The time period when players--even great ones--decline is not "relative to each individual." Not on the upper end. Not at all. Here's the thing. In every sport, we've made huge strides in rehab and medical treatment. Injuries that would and should have shortened or even ended careers twenty years ago are, now, managed. And here's the result in terms of playing longer, and or player more effectively after more time on the court/field.

Nothing.

Look at the NBA top 10 in career minutes played. Four of them played their first game in the 60s. Another one started his career in 1971. To break into the top 10, Garnett will have to play something like 10000 or 11000 more minutes. If he plays as much as he did this year, that's four more years...and his minutes have been dropping every year. He's the only player that's got a chance to bust into the top 3-5, and it's pretty unlikely.

Baseball? Look at the career top 10 in plate appearances for hitters. Five of the top 10 played their first game prior to 1965. Pitching is even more backloaded. Even if you take out dead-ball era players, the career leaders in innings are dominated by players that started their careers prior to 1970. Know how many pitchers have thrown over 4000 innings? Thirty eight. Know how many of them started their career after 1970? Four. We've got more teams and players than ever before. Nobody seems to be able to get to the plate more often than Stan Musial, or pitch more than Steve Carlton. And those guys aren't in the top 7 in their areas.

What does this sort of information tell us? The fact is that, from an anatomical standpoint, that human bodies are not meant to withstand the sustained damage of professional sports. Rehab, Tommy John surgeries, pitch counts, arthro, better training...doesn't matter. So, actually, we can pretty clearly spot the upper limit that 99% of players can reach at or near their peak. That upper limit appears to be 40000-45000 minutes (or 44500-49500 combined regular season playoff minutes) for big men, and 36000-41000 minutes (or 40500-45500 combined regular season playoff minutes) for small forwards and guards. The only thing that's relative is if people wear out earlier. We can pretty clearly see the upper limit before inevitable decline sets in.

[The Main Event]

TrueLaFan. You are either; a) a proffessor who loves sports b) a lawyer who loves sports c) an unemployed guy who loves sports and should write a book.

[The Main Event]

Half the time i get into arguments with people over basketball related issues i wish i had TrueLaFan there to provide some relevant statistics and facts that set my knucklehead friends straight .haha

[NO-KG-AI]

TrueLaFan. You are either; a) a proffessor who loves sports b) a lawyer who loves sports c) an unemployed guy who loves sports and should write a book.

TrueLAFan is one of the head professors of RealGM university. Get your pen and paper out kiddies.

[TrueLAfan]

You guys are too kind...and you're close to the truth. I am, in fact, a professor, it's summer (which means I have more time on my hands than usual) and, yeah, I still love sports. Damn.