Just a thought or two - Expirings/Off Season

[Gremz]

With the aquisition of Nesterovic and Baston it adds 2 expiring contracts to add with Quis and Foster. With Granger needing an extension next season, and i understand it will take some of the cap room to accomodate, and perhaps the resigning of one or two of the guys (Foster hopefully and perhaps Rasho if he is serviceable) what are your thoughts about what to use them for?

Salaries taken from Hoopshype (hope they're accurate)

Nesterovic:8,400,000
Daniels: 6,860,000
Foster:6,175,000
Baston:1,970,000
Graham:826,269

Q's
-How much of it will be used for Granger?
-Who do you think/hope will be re-signed?
-What can the remainder be used to trade for?

Off Season

I'm hoping for a Tinsley/Thomas deal with the Clippers to shorten his deal by a year, or perhaps to a lesser extent PR07's deal of Tinsley + Murphy for KMart. See any other off season deals that can cut some salary or purely to improve the team??

Thanks

[count55]

Hoopshype is OK, but generally Shamsports.com is more reliable:

http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages ... pacers.jsp

My hope on Granger is that we sign him to an extension this summer. The most years on an extension is 5, and he can be offered up to the max salary for players with his experience will probably be around $13.5mm. Therefore, the largest possible extension Danny could get would be 5yrs, $84mm (figure max annual raise of 10.5%), which would start to hit the cap in 2009-2010.

I do not advocate signing Danny to that by any stretch of the imagination. However, we should recognize that Rashard Lewis is now in the second year of a 6-yr, $112mm contract with Orlando, and his numbers are almost identical to Danny's. Anything can happen. FWIW: Portland, right now, is projected to be far enough below the salary cap in the summer of 2009 to make a max offer.

At one point in time, I would've hoped to get sign him to a 5-yr, $35mm extension, but three factors argue against that:

1. His season last year was a quantum leap. His post-All Star break numbers were 23.1 pts and 6.7 rebs per night.
2. Luol Deng and Ben Gordon both turned down 5-yr, $50mm extensions last year, and it's hard to argue that either of them played as well as Danny did last year.
3. The salaries being paid to his (arguably lesser) teammates, Mike Dunleavy, Jr, and, especially, Troy Murphy.

For that reason, I am hopeful (but not entirely confident) that we can sign him to a 5-year extension between $55 and $60 mm. It would look like this:

2008-09 $9,000.00 $9,800.00
2009-10 $9,945.00 $10,829.00
2010-11 $10,989.23 $11,966.05
2011-12 $12,143.09 $13,222.48
2012-13 $13,418.12 $14,610.84

$55,495.44 $60,428.36

Anything above that, and I'm afraid the Pacers will not be able to keep him. And, additionally, I'm not entirely sure it would be prudent to pay that kind of money for Danny. Danny, while very good, is probably not a primary option on a contending team. I'm willing to spend a lot to keep him, but there would be limits.

As far as the others go, I could only see Foster and Nesterovic re-signed. Foster might make the same kind of money (which is actually $5.5mm), but be flat or decline, while Nesterovic, I would consider at a greatly reduced rate. This is assuming that they are here at the end of the season.

Regarding Tinsley, my desire to trade him away for even an equally bad contract has been well documented. However, the rumble on PD is that his knee is shot, and he's put on something like 25 lbs. since April. Supposedly, Mike Wells has discussed this on the radio in the last week, but I have no link to support it. If true, it opens up two issues, one bad and one good (but less likely). The first is the fear that he would not be able to pass the physical for any trade, which has the tangential issue of nobody wanting to trade for a point guard with Homer Simpson's build. The second longshot is that his knee could be at least bad enough to convince someone it's career ending. This would allow insurance to pay his salary, and, if he never plays again, theoretically, his salary would come off the books as early as this season. (That's if I'm reading the following rule correctly:)

There is one exception whereby a player can continue to receive his salary, but the salary is not included in the team's team salary. This is when a player is forced to retire for medical reasons and a league-appointed physician confirms that he is medically unfit to continue playing. There is a waiting period of one year following the injury or illness before a team can apply for this salary cap relief. If the waiting period expires mid-season (on any date prior to the last day of the regular season), then the player's entire salary for that season is removed from the team's team salary. For example, in March 2003 the Knicks were allowed to remove Luc Longley's entire 2002-03 salary from their books (and since the luxury tax is based on the team salary as of the last day of the regular season, the Knicks avoided paying any tax on Longley's salary). This provision can also be used when a player dies while under contract

While that might be the best possible thing to happen, it's very, very unlikely that JT actually has a career ending injury. He may never play again, but I suspect it's more because he just doesn't want to, rather than any physical malady. (That's speculation, so take it FWIW.)

Now, trades. I think Daniels & Foster are probably being discussed in deals this summer. They have good-sized expiring contracts and have some utility as players. Foster is almost certainly a relatively valuable trading piece. Baston and Graham are strictly filler, both due to size of contract and reputation as a player. Nesterovic is a large expiring, and he could be traded by himself immediately, but we'd have to wait until September to package him in any deal:

For two months after receiving the player in trade or claiming him off waivers, if the player is being traded in combination with other players. However, the team is free to trade the player by himself (not packaged with other players) immediately. This restriction applies only to teams over the salary cap. (Also see question number 72 for a special case where players can be traded together in less than two months.)

I would guess we may be looking at the PF slot, as has been discussed. I"m sure we'd love to take a flyer on Shawn Marion, but we don't have much more than expirings. Riley has always (bizarrely) been a fan of Tinsley, but it's too much to hope that we could package Tinsley and a Nesterovic to get Marion. Plus, there are reasonable questions about how long Marion would want to stay in Indy, as well has how much he would cost.

Another big name PF supposedly available is Elton Brand, but I have no clue what they are asking.

There are a lot of guys that would be attractive, but I'm unsure of their availabilty/price.

I'm thinking if a big deal is done later this summer, then it would include one of the expirings and probably Mike Dunleavy, Jr. That's not necessarily something I'd advocate, and I don't know what he'd draw, but it is a reasonable possibility, regardless of what Bird said the other day.

I was talking to Andrew yesterday, and I rated the following chances for departures (that these guys would not be with the Pacers next year):

Tinsley - 100% (Buyout)
Shawne Williams - 70% Small, expiring contract with some skills and upside...easily movable by himself or as filler/sweetener
Marquis Daniels - 50/50 expiring contract, but with iffy value...staring at full PG rotation (Ford, Jack, Diener), limited minutes at 2/3 (Granger/Dunleavy/BRush)
Jeff Foster - 33% I suspect we'll only move him for real value or to get someone to swallow Tinsley. Rumbles are that both O'Brien and Bird love Foster.
Mike Dunleavy - 10% I believe that the Pacers would move Jr before Foster, but it's unclear how the market views his value as a player vs. his contract. It's better than at this point last year, but how much? (BTW...this isn't because I dislike Junior...it's just that he likely has some value, and he plays the same position as Danny. However, I'd make sure I had Danny locked up before I trade Junior.)

It's going to be a busy summer. I'd expect at least two more deals.

[greenway84]

Plus, there are reasonable questions about how long Marion would want to stay in Indy, as well has how much he would cost.

Me and my buddy discussed this as well. But I look at it as worst case senario. Even if he only played for one year and then didnt want to resign. Thats pretty much like giving us an exp contract for tinsley and thats great. Best case senario. Marion grows up matures and realizes hes not worth a huge contract. Sees how great it is and the fans are in Indy, and decides to stay for not much more than Danny.

[cdash]

I want to fight Tinsley. I think at this point he is too fat and his knee is torn up enough to where my quickness alone would take him. I'll worry about the rest of his posse later. Whos with me?

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I will be so upset if we let Granger walk. Especially to Portland. I would go crazy, you don't even know.

[cdash]

I highly doubt Portland would throw a max contract his way. They have to figure out extensions for Roy and Aldridge in the next few years. Besides, I dont think Granger is worth a max contract and Kevin Pritchard rarely seems to make ignorant moves.

[count55]

I highly doubt Portland would throw a max contract his way. They have to figure out extensions for Roy and Aldridge in the next few years. Besides, I dont think Granger is worth a max contract and Kevin Pritchard rarely seems to make ignorant moves.

They might not make a max offer, but they might be in a position to offer every bit as much as we do (just not as many years). In other words, if they show interest, they're going to make Danny that much more expensive. Also, Portland bought out Steve Francis for $30mm. While Cuban is more flamboyant about it, Portland's owner (whose name escapes me at the moment...the Microsoft guy) can and will spend obscene amounts of money without batting an eye.

I'd really like to get Danny off the market entirely with an extension. I would not like to go into next summer with Danny as a free agent if he's able to put up his Post- All star break numbers (23.1 pts, 6.7 rebs) for a full season.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I was confident he was staying till this thread. Now I'm worried, thanks a lot.

When can we sign him to an extension? He doesn't strike me as a guy that would leave for money. I think he likes it here, he is the face of the franchise, the number one option, and has fit in really well with the community, I just don't see him leaving. I can't even imagine the Pacers without him.

[count55]

Any time this summer...

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I wish we would at least hear that they are in discussions or something.

Wow, I'm nervous now. Ya'll are jerks. :-p

[count55]

Can't start talks until July 9, though I'd agree I'd like to hear that Danny's extension was a priority...however, I understand and even agree with keeping that type of stuff in house.

[basketballwacko2]

I want to fight Tinsley. I think at this point he is too fat and his knee is torn up enough to where my quickness alone would take him. I'll worry about the rest of his posse later. Whos with me?

I'll take the biggest one of his p p pu "posse" members, I'm 6'2" 285 myself.

[basketballwacko2]

The second longshot is that his knee could be at least bad enough to convince someone it's career ending. This would allow insurance to pay his salary, and, if he never plays again, theoretically, his salary would come off the books as early as this season.

Wow now that would be a 2nd best case senario for us. Best senario would be bringing him into camp and seeing him fully healthy, playing him in the first 3 or 4 preseason games, him getting 16pts 9 asts and then us trading him to sacto or LA Clips or any where for anything that has a 2 yr contract. Like a pack mule or something with a $5 million contract for 2 yrs or less.

Seriously I'm quite opposed to buying out JT if he was in his last year I'd say fine buy him out if no one wants him. But he's gonna hold out for 80% or so that means he's on our books for 3 yrs and $5.4, $5.7 and $6 million till 2011. If he can't play tell him to sit, let him go home rehab on his own, waste a roster spot on him if we have to until the date of his injure/last game played in last season and then if he still can't play go to him and say look here's the deal, medical retirement, you get 80% of your money and you can go be a punk and a gang banger and we won't gripe at you anymore. Ok? Buh by Jamaal have fun in prison.

[xxSnEaKyPxx]

I'm 6'5 220 but I live in NC so count me out unless we plan to do it at a Bobcat game. :-p

[basketballwacko2]

I'm 6'5 220 but I live in NC so count me out unless we plan to do it at a Bobcat game. :-p

If I can get my friends Ray (6'4" 275) and Brian (6'5" 250) in on this rumble we'd have a pretty big crew.

But really I'm a real gentle guy I never hurt anyone.

[count55]

The second longshot is that his knee could be at least bad enough to convince someone it's career ending. This would allow insurance to pay his salary, and, if he never plays again, theoretically, his salary would come off the books as early as this season.

Wow now that would be a 2nd best case senario for us. Best senario would be bringing him into camp and seeing him fully healthy, playing him in the first 3 or 4 preseason games, him getting 16pts 9 asts and then us trading him to sacto or LA Clips or any where for anything that has a 2 yr contract. Like a pack mule or something with a $5 million contract for 2 yrs or less.

Seriously I'm quite opposed to buying out JT if he was in his last year I'd say fine buy him out if no one wants him. But he's gonna hold out for 80% or so that means he's on our books for 3 yrs and $5.4, $5.7 and $6 million till 2011. If he can't play tell him to sit, let him go home rehab on his own, waste a roster spot on him if we have to until the date of his injure/last game played in last season and then if he still can't play go to him and say look here's the deal, medical retirement, you get 80% of your money and you can go be a punk and a gang banger and we won't gripe at you anymore. Ok? Buh by Jamaal have fun in prison.

With a medical retirement, he would get 100% of his money.

Any scenario that brings him back into this locker room, I'm opposed to.

[user name]

One other thing to mention, since the trade can not be finalized until July 9, there is still time for a third team to get involved if the Pacers wanted to trade Rasho immediately- even with another player, all as part of the one big deal.

[cdash]

I'm 6'5 220 but I live in NC so count me out unless we plan to do it at a Bobcat game. :-p

If I can get my friends Ray (6'4" 275) and Brian (6'5" 250) in on this rumble we'd have a pretty big crew.

But really I'm a real gentle guy I never hurt anyone.

Christ almighty you fellas are large. Unfortunately, my measurements pale in comparison, so I wont embarrass myself by posting them, lol.