Chalmers Traded

[Jonathan Watters]

And two 2nd rounders plus $2Mil can't move you into the 1st round next year? You act as if those 2nd round picks have no value.

First off, no, I don't think that could get a first rounder that is markedly better than a 2nd rounder. Especially at the spot the Wolves were drafting in this draft.

Secondly, it all depends on a lot of things. Where the picks are, how deep the draft is, which teams hold the picks that would be switching hands, and who is left on the board.

I'd be shocked if the Wolves came away with half the value they'd have gotten if they'd drafted CDR this year, and the money really shouldn't mean anything to a fan. It isn't the fans' money and isn't helping the team out in any tangible way.

I'm with you on CDR. My dream draft was Love, CDR, and some foreign guy. I was pretty upset when we passed on him, twice. The only redeeming part of it is that we actually got something for that pick. Now chances are we'll screw it up next year, but that doesn't mean we didn't get good value for the pick.

I guessit can't get any worse than drafting James Gist or Patrick Ewing Jr. But considering we are likely to draft somebody like that next year, I don't see what the difference is.

Its also important to realize that this comes in the context of already delaying one draft pick by picking Pekovic. If we pick a player who will take up a roster spot in 08 at 30, maybe you can justify the roster argument a little. But we don't have a 2nd rounder coming in this year, period. There's no reason to think the Wolves couldn't have used somebody at that spot.

[casey]

First off, no, I don't think that could get a first rounder that is markedly better than a 2nd rounder. Especially at the spot the Wolves were drafting in this draft.

The Blazers bought the #27 pick for just cash. So there are trades like that available.

I'd be shocked if the Wolves came away with half the value they'd have gotten if they'd drafted CDR this year

I agree with that. But it's not because they won't be able to.

My point isn't that I'm happy with the trade, I would've rather kept somebody from that pick. It's that we got good value in the deal.

[Dan's with the Wolves]

WOW!! A lot of highly charged opinions and emotions regarding the 34th pick in this year's draft.
It seems that most think that this year's 34th pick is worth significantly more than $2m and the worst 2 of 3 of next year's second round picks from Miami, Indiana and Philadelphia. (Most likely in the mid forties)

So let's have a little RealGM competition and say who you would have selected with the 34th pick and see if they end up having more or less value in the league than what free agents/Draft picks the Wolves get for the $2m +2 2nds. (this will take a few years)

I'll start. I would have drafted CDR. He reminds me of Paul Pierce. Not pretty but the ball goes in the hole from just about anywhere.

[Krapinsky]

Jonathan-

I respect your opinions, but the way you dismiss other people opinions on here just isn't cool. Your not the end all be all of basketball knowledge. Lots of NBA gms who have watched CDR workout, who have put him through their own drills, who have studied all of his game tapes, and who have interviewed him personally, decided they could have gotten better value with their pick. You may think CDR is the next great thing, and your entitled to your opinion, but it's not the opinion of much better basketball minds than yourself.

[Carpe Diem]

The problem with your arugment is that you use a claim to support your claim. You have no idea who will be coming out next year, yet you categorically declare that a player of Chalmers' or CDR's talent will not be available in the second round. We have no clue how deep next year's draft will be. Who will blow up, who will come out, who will decide to stay. Could be deep or it could be dismal.

The only way to judge this deal is to ask if it is reasonable to trade a second round pick for two additional second round picks (in all liklihood one will be fairly early and other mid-second round) along with $2 million. I find that highly reasonable, especially when second rounders have less then a 10% chance of actually making it. There is no evidence that McHale said, we really like x and believe he can be a rotation player for us but Glen needs another $2 million so we'll trade it. Here, you are merely affirming the consequent. McHale is an idiot and has screwed away the second round. McHale made a second round move. Therefore, the move is idiotic. While I grant that McHale is an easy target because his moves have not always worked out, that does not mean we blindly assume this deal to be bad. From a talent level, we can not determine at this point in time whether or not it was a good move.

[Jonathan Watters]

So you are saying that the realistic way to judge this trade is to completely ignore the fact that certain drafts have more depth/value in the 2nd round, and that this draft was the deepest in recent memory.

And on top of that, we ought to assume that next year's draft will be just as deep as this year's extremely deep draft.

That's completely realistic.

Just like Zach Randolph was a steal for the Knicks last year because he averaged 20/10 in Portland.

The only realistic way we can evaluate a player trade is to take points and rebounds, and recalculate.

Right?

[Jonathan Watters]

Jonathan-

Lots of NBA gms who have watched CDR workout, who have put him through their own drills, who have studied all of his game tapes, and who have interviewed him personally, decided they could have gotten better value with their pick. You may think CDR is the next great thing, and your entitled to your opinion, but it's not the opinion of much better basketball minds than yourself.

I've been following the draft for long enough to know that this isn't the case.

I won't even try to support my argument, because then I'll be accused of dismissing everyone else's opinions and annointing myself as a basketball genius or something.

[TrentTuckerForever]

Kids - it's called the ignore button. Civility is more important than being right, isn't it?

Dan's - I was really, really pulling for the Wolves to draft Jordan. To me he was the perfect prospect to take in the 2nd round - great physical tools, questionable motivation. Put him next to Big Al and Collins, make him earn his time.

Either that or I would have kept Chalmers. I actually understand McHale's point... if we'd kept Mayo there wouldn't have been room for him. The Grizzlies deal obviously developed late in the game (later than the local papers' deadlines), but that's not a reason not to do the deal.

[Worm Guts]

Kids - it's called the ignore button. Civility is more important than being right, isn't it?

The ignore button is for the weak, we just need to control ourselves. Jonathan can be slightly condescending but he always backs up his arguments and is a great poster.

[TrentTuckerForever]

The ignore button is for the weak...

You sound like our former governor! You remember Jesse's thoughts on organized religion... I'd post them but Rev would smite me.

[Carpe Diem]

I understand your thoughts Jonathan but I happen to disagree and offer the following support.
A. Many other teams passed on these prospects as well, thus the opinion that CDR, Jordan, Chalmers are sure bets is a minority opinion.
B. The second round is a totally random and over the last decade (1997-2007) there have been 9 difference makers (3.3% chance) and another 50 or so who have become spot starters/rotational level players (16% chance).
C. Of those picked in the second round who have made it, the slot in which they were drafted is not a critical component. R. Lewis, G. Arenas went early while Ginobili, Redd were picked very late in the draft.
D. Perceived depth of the draft does not seem to correlate either. The 2000 draft is considered weak yet produced some interesting second rounders Marko Jaric, Jake Voskuhl, Eddie House, Eduardo Najera, Michael Redd, Brian Cardinal. The Lebron, Anthony, Wade, Bosh draft of 2003 draft also produced several second rounders.

Therefore, I maintain that the move to trade the 34 pick for two future second round picks and $2 million is a legitimate move to be made. There are some who believe that Chalmers would be receiving the primary back up pg minutes, if only we had not traded him. Others say we should have taken a flier on Jordan. But the characteristic most needed from a second rounder "work ethic, saavy" are but all accounts not his strong point. As for CDR, of those remaining at 34 he would be the one that seems to have the most legitimate chance of becoming something more than the 12th man. Certainly worthy of a pick, but I am not going to lose sleep or bash McHale over it.