Coin Flip

stop-n-pop · Post #1 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:35 pm

I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

funkatron101 · Post #2 » by **funkatron101** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:37 pm

Good point. I forgot about that!

Post #3 » by **Worm Guts** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:40 pm

stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

The potential 2010 free agent run could have been a potential 2009 free agent run without the trade.

TrentTuckerForever · Post #4 » by **TrentTuckerForever** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:45 pm

^But the 2010 class is considered to be better, isn't it? Even if the Wolves don't end up hooking one of the 2010 big fish (LeBron, Wade, Johnson, Nowitzki) they might be able to use their space to facilitate a useful deal.

Also, let's not overplay what the #3 netted us. Mayo by himself didn't net Love, Miller and Collins. Mayo + expirings + Jaric did (and we had to take back Cardinal, a salary albatross in his own right.)

I like the trade and it's effect on the roster this year. But I think it's overstating it to say that the flip that moved us from 5 to 3 is the sole cause.

stop-n-pop · Post #5 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:47 pm

Without the flip they're picking 5 and they take Love straight up. No Mayo, no deal, and we're still sitting here wondering if Lima will show up at home games.

TrentTuckerForever · Post #6 » by **TrentTuckerForever** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:55 pm

stop-n-pop wrote:Without the flip they're picking 5 and they take Love straight up. No Mayo, no deal, and we're still sitting here wondering if Lima will show up at home games.

Would Walker's expiring by itself have been worth Miller to Memphis? Who knows... I think the value is close. You're right that Mayo's availability was the catalyst, but to think that the Wolves couldn't have made another deal with the assets they had is untrue.

And is Ms. Jaric is reading this - you're always welcome in Minnesota!!!

Post #7 » by **Worm Guts** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 2:55 pm

TrentTuckerForever wrote:^But the 2010 class is considered to be better, isn't it? Even if the Wolves don't end up hooking one of the 2010 big fish (LeBron, Wade, Johnson, Nowitzki) they might be able to use their space to facilitate a useful deal.

Maybe, but it's going to be trickier to create/hold on to cap space in 2010 than it would have been in 2009. I'm not convinced it will be there.

TMo519 · Post #8 » by **TMo519** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:03 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

The potential 2010 free agent run could have been a potential 2009 free agent run without the trade.

I don't think the Wolves will be good enough to make that FA run worth as much as they will in 2010, when I expect them to be a bona fide playoff team and a nice FA acquisition at that point could really make an impact.

Post #9 » by **Worm Guts** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:10 pm

TMo519 wrote:
Worm Guts wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

The potential 2010 free agent run could have been a potential 2009 free agent run without the trade.

I don't think the Wolves will be good enough to make that FA run worth as much as they will in 2010, when I expect them to be a bona fide playoff team and a nice FA acquisition at that point could really make an impact.

If the Wolves resign Mike Miller, I'm not sure they gained anything in 2010 free agent market from the trade. Walker and Buckner would have been off the cap anyway, and Miller will be making as much or more as Jaric. We'll probably also have to resign Foye. I'm not sure how much money we'll have.

stop-n-pop · Post #10 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:10 pm

Here's a list for the club's cap info:

http://www.canishoopus.com/pages/contract-info

They will likely come in around $48-55 mil if the status quo remains in tact. They could get fancy with Miller if he agrees to sign with the team *after* the team locks up a larger contract. If that's the case, and the cap projects to around $63 mil on the soft end, then they could have up to around $23 mil to spend. That's obviously pretty damn optimistic and it depends on them keeping rookie contracts at base levels and without extending Foye or McCants, as well as utilizing a 2nd rounder or 2 (which they've shown they are willing to do), but from a standpoint of opening up cap space, 2010 is a much more feasible option than what would have taken place in 2009. My guess is that they'll end up with about $13-15 after bringing over Pekovic. If they keep the base rates, here's what they will be looking at (I went high end for backup point and upcoming 1st picks):

Foye: 4.7
Brewer: 3.7
Jefferson: 13
Gomes: 5 (we'll find out shortly on this one)
Love: 3
2009 1st: 2
2009 1st: 2
Backup point: 3.5

That's 36.9 with 8 contracts out the door. The Wolves will probably fill the back end with a 2nd rounder/minimum contract or 2 and that would bring them to around 39 mil at 10 players. Miller and the free agent could take up the remaining amount.

How were you calculating 2009 cap space?

Post #11 » by **Worm Guts** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:14 pm

stop-n-pop wrote: They could get fancy with Miller if he agrees to sign with the team *after* the team locks up a larger contract.

Miller will have a cap hold (which is something like double his previous salary), even after his contract expires he'll still be on the books unless the Wolves renounce his rights or he signs with someone else. The same is true for Foye.

stop-n-pop · Post #12 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 3:19 pm

Worm Guts wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote: They could get fancy with Miller if he agrees to sign with the team *after* the team locks up a larger contract.

Miller will have a cap hold, even after his contract expires he'll still be on the books unless the Wolves renounce his rights.

There's a way around that and the Clippers just may pull it with Brand and Davis. The Wolves renounce Miller with a wink-wink and he signs with them after they make an offer to another free agent. I think the collective bargaining agreement has that kind of loophole in it. If not, they'll still have upwards of $12 mil to spend and that could be enough to land a nice player. By then the MLE could even be up enough to give Miller a nice chunk of change, but it will depend on how much he likes playing here.

MN Die Hard · Post #13 » by **MN Die Hard** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:15 pm

stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

Why would they have dropped to 5th if they lost the flip? Win = 3rd, lose = 5th. What about 4th?

4ho5ive · Post #14 » by **4ho5ive** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:15 pm

The last time the Wolves did any kind of "wink wink" in FA we ended up losing 4 1st rnd picks.

funkatron101 · Post #15 » by **funkatron101** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:21 pm

4ho5ive wrote:The last time the Wolves did any kind of "wink wink" in FA we ended up losing 4 1st rnd picks.

All for Joe Fricken Smith...

Post #16 » by **Klomp** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:23 pm

MN Die Hard wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

Why would they have dropped to 5th if they lost the flip? Win = 3rd, lose = 5th. What about 4th?

The flip was for the lotteryballs. We were 3rd, Mem was 4th. Chicago jumped up bumping Mem to 5 and Sea out of top 3, but we stayed at 3

stop-n-pop · Post #17 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:24 pm

MN Die Hard wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

Why would they have dropped to 5th if they lost the flip? Win = 3rd, lose = 5th. What about 4th?

No, the Wolves and Memphis flipped a coin to receive an extra number combo in the draft. The Wolves received a set that landed them the 3rd pick. Had they lost, Seattle had a worse record and they would have drafted 4th regardless.

As for the "wink-wink" aspect of a hypothetical Miller deal, without revisiting the specifics of the Joe Smith debacle, Taylor put the damn Smith deal down in writing and they were lining up consecutive years towards a big payoff at the end for Smith. That's collusion to game the system combined with the stupidity to write it down; Miller not getting extended would simply be him wanting the Wolves to become a better team. :wink:

If Brand pulls it off with the Clips and Davis, there will be a precedent...esp if both sign for about $13 mil. If that doesn't meet the collusion standard, then...well, I don't know what does if 2 top line players both agree to come in well below market value on a single team. Who knows? Maybe Miller would be content to sign an MLE offer at that point in his career to play on a (hopefully) winning team.

stop-n-pop · Post #18 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:27 pm

klomp44 wrote:
MN Die Hard wrote:
stop-n-pop wrote:I don't think it's received much in the way of conversation, but I think one of the forgotten things in the post-trade discussion is that the Wolves drafted 3rd because they won a coin flip with Memphis. Had they lost the coin flip, they draft 5th and select Kevin Love. A coin flip literally turned Kevin Love into Kevin Love, Mike Miller, a defensive center on loan for a year, the jettisoning of Jaric and Toine, and a potential 2010 free agent run.

Maybe I've missed the thread with this topic, but that's a pretty damn fortuitous coin flip. It's not Greg Oden good, but pretty damn nice.

Why would they have dropped to 5th if they lost the flip? Win = 3rd, lose = 5th. What about 4th?

The flip was for the lotteryballs. We were 3rd, Mem was 4th. Chicago jumped up bumping Mem to 5 and Sea out of top 3, but we stayed at 3

The flip was for a number combo. The lotto is based on a series of number combinations assigned to each team. The Wolves won the coin flip with Memphis and then won the 3rd best lotto number combo and the 3rd pick in the draft. Had Memphis won the coin flip, they would have received the number combo that the Wolves had and they would have received the 3rd pick. Seattle has the next worst record and they would have been 4th.

prefuse73 · Post #19 » by **prefuse73** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:38 pm

the only way we can get a significant free agent is to not extend mccants, foye and not resign miller? well you better hope the free agent not only wants to come here, but also can replace all that production.

The best way to build a championship team is through the draft and trades and sign & trades...not free agency.

stop-n-pop · Post #20 » by **stop-n-pop** » Tue Jul 1, 2008 4:43 pm

prefuse73 wrote:the only way we can get a significant free agent is to not extend mccants, foye and not resign miller? well you better hope the free agent not only wants to come here, but also can replace all that production.

The best way to build a championship team is through the draft and trades and sign & trades...not free agency.

No, that's not what I'm saying. Foye is locked up through the 2010 free agent season because the Wolves own his options. If they extend a QO to him, they own his Bird rights and he can be resigned after bringing in a free agent. McCants will probably have to go, but even if they keep him, he's not going to be (rather, shouldn't be) signed for more than $5-6 mil/year. They're lined up for 2010 and they can likely do it by keeping 2 out of the following 3: Miller, Foye, and McCants. They can't keep everybody.