Clippers, Davis and Brand

[Three34]

Also, C.J. Watson is under contract to the Warriors next year, for the minimum of $711,517. It's totally unguaranteed until July 25th, and even then it's only $100,000 guaranteed, but it's more than a mandatory roster charge.

[Dunkenstein]

Also, C.J. Watson is under contract to the Warriors next year, for the minimum of $711,517. It's totally unguaranteed until July 25th, and even then it's only $100,000 guaranteed, but it's more than a mandatory roster charge.

That's why I said "If all other players are either waived or renounced." In my scenario Watson would be waived in order to sign Brand.

[Carl_Monday]

In May, the Players Assn told its agents that they projected that the Salary Cap would be $58.5M. For purposes of this discussion, I’m going to use that number.

Based on a cap of $58.5, the most the Warriors could offer Brand is a five-year deal starting at 17.55M (30% of $58.5). The total five-year deal would equal $101,790,000.

Hey Dunk, I'm no capologist like the rest of ya, and I know it's kind of splitting hairs, but I don't think that $17.55 million figure is right. If you look at max salary numbers for the past 2 years compared to the salary cap, it works out to about 28.13% (I think they use a different percentage of the BRI or something). Using that salary cap number of $58.5 million works out to a max salary (and cap hold for Brand) of about $16.46 million.

Bottom line is that the Dubs will probably renounce everyone but Ellis, Azubuike, Biedrins, and Watson, and they'll still have enoungh cap room to be able to offer a max deal for Brand. The Clips could come close enough to matching, which I'm sure they'll end up doing because it's a no-brainer, but it'll result in them renouncing everyone but Brand, giving them zero depth, and the only way they can add anyone is by offering the vets minimum. So while the Dubs won't end up with Brand, it still impacts a division rival by adversely affecting their depth for this year and their salary situation.

[Dunkenstein]

Hey Dunk, I'm no capologist like the rest of ya, and I know it's kind of splitting hairs, but I don't think that $17.55 million figure is right. If you look at max salary numbers for the past 2 years compared to the salary cap, it works out to about 28.13% (I think they use a different percentage of the BRI or something). Using that salary cap number of $58.5 million works out to a max salary (and cap hold for Brand) of about $16.46 million.

Good call. I just got an email from Larry Coon who said that "The cap uses 51% of Projected-BRI in its calculation, and the max salaries use 48.04% of Projected-BRI in their calculations." Thus the 28.13% rather than the 30%.

Edit: Corrected using Larry Coon's email.

[FGump]

In May, the Players Assn told its agents that they projected that the Salary Cap would be $58.5M. For purposes of this discussion, I’m going to use that number.

Based on a cap of $58.5, the most the Warriors could offer Brand is a five-year deal starting at 17.55M (30% of $58.5). The total five-year deal would equal $101,790,000.

If the Clippers stuck to the notion that they only wanted to give Brand a five-year contract, that would amount to $92,872,212. That’s about $9M less than the Warriors are able to offer..

I don't think that $17.55 million figure is right

Carl is right. Good job.

The actual number if my calculator is right is 16.53M (4804/5100 times the 30%)) and the 5 yr max for a GS offer with a 58.5M cap would be 95.882M. That's almost exactly $3M more than LAC's max 5 yr deal under the same cap limits. That may be close enough to keep Brand from wanting to leave his home in LA.

But there is one important factor being ignored - the final cap amount. If it's more or less, that will have an impact on the numbers and the disparity.

With other cap figures .... 5 yrs comps using Dunk's cap commitment calculations for each team

CAP ....max salary .... GS cap room ....GS max .... LA cap room ...LA max 5 yr .....6 yr
60 ...... 16.96 ...........19.27.................98.34 ....... 16.85 ............101.94 ..........127.64
59.5 ....16.81 ............18.77 ...............97.52 ........16.35 .............98.92 ...........123.85
59 .....16.67 ..............18.27.............. 96.70 ........15.85 .............95.89 ..........120.06
58.5 ....16.53 .............17.77...............95.88 ........15.35 .............92.87 ...........116.28
58 .....16.39 ..............17.27............... 95.06 ........14.85 .............89.84 ..........112.49
57.5 ...16.25 ..............16.77.............. 94.24 .........14.35 ............86.82 ...........108.70
57 ...... 16.11 .............16.27...............93.42 .........13.85 ............83.79 ..........104.91

[Carl_Monday]

Ah, so that's where that 48.04% of BRI figure for max salaries comes in mentioned in Larry Coon's FAQs (versus 51% for the salary cap). Now it makes sense. I kind of stumbled onto that a couple of days ago when I was trying to figure out how all of these projected max contract figures made sense.

Anyways, thanks for crunching all the numbers on this stuff and for helping enlighten me in the past of all the nuances (annoyances?) of the CBA.

[Dunkenstein]

Marc Stein is reporting that the Sixers are now close to landing Brand. By using the Wolves' TPEs, the Sixers are moving Booth and Carney to Minnesota. Including the cap holds on Iguodala, Williams and Speights, the Sixers team salary will be $43,595,814 after the trade.

Using the same $58.5 cap figure I used earlier, this means that the Sixers can offer Brand a five-year contract worth $86,420,000 with a first year salary of $14.9M. Of course these numbers will change when the actual numbers come out later today.

Philly's offer is a little less than either the Warriors or Clippers can offer, but I hear he'd rather play closer to home (he's from New York) and in the East, where Philadelphia now has a chance to be a second round playoff team, which neither the Clippers or Warriors would be, even with him in the line-up.

[-bob-]

I just saw on the Philly board, Yahoo! Sports is reporting that Carney was told he's been traded to Minnesota. Carney, Booth + future 1st to Minny is the rumor. It looks like Philly will win the Brand sweepstakes.

[FGump]

Marc Stein is reporting that the Sixers are now close to landing Brand. By using the Wolves' TPEs, the Sixers are moving Booth and Carney to Minnesota. Including the cap holds on Iguodala, Williams and Speights, the Sixers team salary will be $43,595,814 after the trade.

Using the same $58.5 cap figure I used earlier, this means that the Sixers can offer Brand a five-year contract worth $86,420,000 with a first year salary of $14.9M. Of course these numbers will change when the actual numbers come out later today.

Philly's offer is a little less than either the Warriors or Clippers can offer, but I hear he'd rather play closer to home (he's from New York) and in the East, where Philadelphia now has a chance to be a second round playoff team, which neither the Clippers or Warriors would be, even with him in the line-up.

I just saw on the Philly board, Yahoo! Sports is reporting that Carney was told he's been traded to Minnesota. Carney, Booth + future 1st to Minny is the rumor. It looks like Philly will win the Brand sweepstakes.

Stein says that Philly is TRYING. So does Yahoo (as part of the article saying Carney will be traded).

But the Yahoo article notes that the Carney trade is to clear out cap room to be able to up their offer to Brand OR Smith (therefore isn't a precursor to an imminent Brand deal at all).

Ands while Yahoo says this "One league executive believes Brand has delayed his decision on returning to Los Angeles with hopes that Stefanski could cut this deal and make him a comparable offer to that of the Clips" with a note about Brand's roots in NY, it also says this "Most league executives still believe he’ll return to the Clippers."

In addition, Stein's article on the Philly angle notes that GS is still working the deal and seems to be offering the most money at the moment. And while he came from NY, he now has very substantial roots in the LA scene, and Philly is not the same as NY - it would be a completely new city for him.

I think the idea that he is Philly bound is extremely premature.

[Dunkenstein]

I think the idea that he is Philly bound is extremely premature.

"NBA front-office sources told ESPN.com on Tuesday that Brand has informed the Sixers that he will accept a five-year deal worth an estimated $82 million.

"Philadelphia has secured Brand's verbal commitment, sources said, after first reaching an agreement in principle with the Minnesota Timberwolves on a trade that, according to sources, will send Sixers forward Rodney Carney, center Calvin Booth and a future first-round pick to the Wolves without Philadelphia having to take back any salary. The Associated Press reported on Tuesday that the Sixers will receive a future second-round pick in return."

Still think it's extremely premature?

[raleigh]

Some of you need to get your resumes ready...


And send them to the Clippers' front office.

They really screwed the CBA pooch on this one.

[bgwizarfan]

by my calculations, the Sixers can offer Brand up to $14,132,844 in the first year of a new contract, assuming they renounced Amundson, Hill, Ollie, and Randolph....5 year contract with 8% raises comes to $81,970,498

my only question comes with the Roster Spots... Philly would have 3 roster charges before signing Brand... when Brand is signed, does he then take one of those roster charges away (i.e. can they gain an extra $442,114 on that 1st year since with Brand signed, they only would have 2 roster charges then?)

[lakerfan10770]

by my calculations, the Sixers can offer Brand up to $14,132,844 in the first year of a new contract, assuming they renounced Amundson, Hill, Ollie, and Randolph....5 year contract with 8% raises comes to $81,970,498

my only question comes with the Roster Spots... Philly would have 3 roster charges before signing Brand... when Brand is signed, does he then take one of those roster charges away (i.e. can they gain an extra $442,114 on that 1st year since with Brand signed, they only would have 2 roster charges then?)

My numbers differ slightly than yours, but I think the difference is in Louis Williams cap hold. I calulated his cap hold as $1,001,269, which is his QO. I calculated his QO by adding $175k to the minimum for a 3 year vet. As far as the roster charges, I was under the assumption that the signing of Brand would take one of those roster charges away. But I could be completely wrong, hopefully someone that knows for sure can shed some light on it.

One thing that I find utterly baffling is that it appears the Clippers could have offered much more than the reported 5 yrs $70M, up to as much as 5yrs $87M. I suppose we will never know for sure what they offered, but the fact that Elton is signing with the 76ers may be a sign that they low-balled him.

I wrote this in another thread in the general forum:

If we assume that the Clippers would do everything in their power to resign Elton, then they would renounce everyone, then sign Baron Davis starting @ $11.25M

If that was true, then the Clippers would have had the following salaries
Davis - $11,250,000
Kaman - $9,500,000
Mobley - $8,925,000
Thomas - $6,049,400
Gordon - $2,623,200
Thornton - $1,776,240
Knight - $1,728,000
4 roster charges - $1,768,456
Total - $43,620,296
Salary Cap = $58.68M

Cap Space = $15,059,704
5 years with 8% raises = $87,346,283

Assuming the same for the 76ers, except they don't renounce Iggy or Louis Williams:
Dalembert - $11,138,564
Miller - $10,233,333
Iguodala - $8,414,667 (Cap hold)
Evans - $4,640,000
Green - $3,388,000
Young - $1,968,120
Smith - $1,326,360
Speights - $1,285,500 (Cap hold)
Williams - $1,001,269 (Cap hold)
2 roster charges - $884,228
Total - $44,280,041
Cap - $58.68M

Cap space = $14,399,959
5 years with 8% raises = $83,519,762

If my math is correct, the Clippers could have theoretically made a larger offer than the 76ers. Very puzzling................... But then again, if the Clipps could have gone 5yrs $87M but were only willing to go 5yrs $70M, that could explain a lot..........

[FGump]

One thing that I find utterly baffling is that it appears the Clippers could have offered much more than the reported 5 yrs $70M, up to as much as 5yrs $87M. I suppose we will never know for sure what they offered, but the fact that Elton is signing with the 76ers may be a sign that they low-balled him.

I think you are exactly right.

Each time the story was told about the negotiations, Brand was being offered $70M or so and someone else (first GS, then Philly) was outbidding them by a large margin. And that never made sense compared to "the most LA can offer" when you looked at LA's cap room.

You ran the numbers at 8% raises, but in actuality (as has been discussed many times here) the Clipps could have used 10.5% raises. By your math, they could have gone to $87M with 8%, and with 10.5% that same cap room can pay 90.75M over 5 years. That's clearly more than the Philly offer, and it's also a number that LA was never said to have offered. Not even close.

In summary I think all the delay on a decision centered around the fact that Brand kept waiting and waiting for LA to raise their number to something more aggressive and competitive, to retain the face of their franchise, and they never did.

Why didnt they? I think Sterling just got cheap. A tiger shows his stripes? Or maybe he decided he didnt need Brand coming off an Achilles tear at THAT price and wants to spend it on a younger Okafor or J Smith if possible. Either way, I think Brand and his agent figured out that LA wasn't as committed as they thought they would be, and in the end looked for greener pastures in every sense of the word.

[GrandAdmiralDan]

One thing that I find utterly baffling is that it appears the Clippers could have offered much more than the reported 5 yrs $70M, up to as much as 5yrs $87M. I suppose we will never know for sure what they offered, but the fact that Elton is signing with the 76ers may be a sign that they low-balled him.

I think you are exactly right.

Each time the story was told about the negotiations, Brand was being offered $70M or so and someone else (first GS, then Philly) was outbidding them by a large margin. And that never made sense compared to "the most LA can offer" when you looked at LA's cap room.

You ran the numbers at 8% raises, but in actuality (as has been discussed many times here) the Clipps could have used 10.5% raises. By your math, they could have gone to $87M with 8%, and with 10.5% that same cap room can pay 90.75M over 5 years. That's clearly more than the Philly offer, and it's also a number that LA was never said to have offered. Not even close.

In summary I think all the delay on a decision centered around the fact that Brand kept waiting and waiting for LA to raise their number to something more aggressive and competitive, to retain the face of their franchise, and they never did.

Why didnt they? I think Sterling just got cheap. A tiger shows his stripes? Or maybe he decided he didnt need Brand coming off an Achilles tear at THAT price and wants to spend it on a younger Okafor or J Smith if possible. Either way, I think Brand and his agent figured out that LA wasn't as committed as they thought they would be, and in the end looked for greener pastures in every sense of the word.

Bingo.

The Clippers also weren't willing to do a 6th year, apparently, so that may have factored in as well.

I wonder if the Clippers will try and defend this to their fans by using the erroneous claim that the most they could offer was $70 mil over 5 years? We know here it is obviously a BS claim, but probably 90% or more of actual Clipper fans don't know that, especially since that erroneous claim spread through the media like wildfire.