REVISTED: A very simple route to improving the Hawks

[Rod700]

Below is a previous post that I provided on how the Hawks could take a giant step forward by establishing a starting line-up of Hortford, Smoove, JJ, Barbosa, Lowery. It was a simple, concise plan, but I’d like to build on that now. Some thought that Zaza and a first rounder would not be enough to obtain Lowry, so I will provide some more ways to obtain Lowery. Also, some stated that signing Diop would not happen since the ASG won’t go into the luxary tax. I’m aware of that, and was stating what I think the organization should do, not what they will do. In any event though, I will provide some ways to build the roster up without such a free agent signing. My original post is below, and the additional trades are included directly below it, beneath the caption “ADDITIONAL TRADES.” EDIT: Since I am told Diop is going back to Dallas, I will boldface all the text and trades that do NOT depend on Diop being part of the plan. Feel free to scroll down to those.

The Hawks are at a critical juncture during which we have the opportunity to trim the fat from our roster and build around our core of JJ, Smoove, and Horford. In my mind, any other players are expendable if they can be traded to fill out our bench and balance our team.

Step 1: Re-sign Smoove and Chill (which will likely take us very near the luxury tax limit)

Step 2: Re-sign West by offering him the minimum salary. If we are over the cap, rules still allow for minimum salary players to be signed. If it takes a little more to sign him, we may be able to use a small portion of the mid-level exception, which can be split between players, if we can still sign Diop.

Step 3: Sign Diop using the mid-level exception. Time and time again during the regular season last year, our interior defense broke down and teams scored absolutely at will by driving, and sometimes strolling casually into the lane. Smoove and Horford are great, but Smoove needs someone else watching his back, and it would be advantageous to have a 7 footer who isn’t Zaza or Lo Wright.

Edit: I'm told we might have to sign Diop before the Joshes due to the luxary tax.

Step 4: Initiate the following Trades:

Atlanta Salary Ratio Traded Out: 42.8
Atlanta Salary Ratio Brought In: 36.2

Phoenix Salary Ratio Traded Out: 21.6
Phoenix Salary Ratio Brought In: 24.6

Memphis Salary Ratio Traded Out: 14.6
Memphis Salary Ratio Brought In: 18.2


Atlanta Trades: Marv, Zaza, Law, Solo, 09 Second Rounder
Atlanta Gets: Barbosa, Lowry

Phoenix Trades: Barbosa after his BYC year is completed on July 7th
Phoenix Gets: Marv, Law

Memphis Trades: Lowry, Jacobson (resigned to a salary ratio equivalent of 5.2), and Brown (resigned to a salary ratio equivalent of 5.2). Please note that although Brown and Jacobson are resigned with more than a 20% raise to their original salary, they are not BYC players due to their team being under the cap. Please see Larry Coon’s FAQ #73 under GM Resources.

What Phoenix Gains: They fulfill their desire to get younger. They get a number 11 pick (that hasn’t been given playing time in Atl) to back up Nash. Marv’s arrival allows the Suns to trade Diaw. The roster is full and balanced, and the Diaw trade can be focused on getting the best player available rather than fulfilling a need at a certain position.

What Memphis Gains: They’ve done a good job of getting a young star in O.J. Mayo and keeping the team salary down, but now it’s time to put a full roster together that can actually take the floor. Right now, the only decent big men they have are Darko and Warrick. They would be crazy to exercise the team option on Walker, or resign Kwame. That only leaves Brown as the only other big man. Zaza gives them a solid presence inside and Solo gives them a back-up with some potential to be a shot-blocker. They also get a pick to fill out their roster for next year or to use in a trade to improve their position in the 09 draft. The only significant piece they give up is Lowry, and Memphis already has too many capable young point guards with Conley and Critteon also on the roster.

What Atlanta Gets: An extremely flexible, explosive line-up. The roster is well balanced and each position is filled. We could move JJ to the 3 spot because he is strong enough to play there and I actually believe he is at his best when he is attacking the basket. This allows us to obtain Barbosa, and Lowry, two very talented high energy players that fit well with our young, athletic core and who are currently very obtainable. *We can allow Bibby to start for at least a year (if we choose to for that long) until Lowry learns the system. Bibby is also a contingency plan if Barbosa cannot develop his play making skills and needs to spend most of his time at the 2 guard spot. If Barbosa has trouble guarding a larger shooting guard, we can bring in West, who hustles, or Chill, who plays much more solid defense against shooting guards as opposed to small forwards. Here is the roster and some possible lineups:

Full Roster:

1st String 2nd 3rd Cheerleaders

Horford Diop
Smoove A.Brown
JJ Chill West
Barbosa Jacobson
Lowry* Bibby

The speed, energy, and hustle of our roster are unparalleled, and Diop solidifies the interior defense. Diop works a 3 man rotation with the other big men, and Chill works a similar rotation with JJ and Barbosa. Lowry and Bibby battle for playing time. If we choose not to resign Bibby at the end of the year or are unable to, Barbosa can rotate into the point guard position the following year.

Defensive Line-up:

Diop
Smoove
West/Chill
JJ
Lowery

Fast Lineup:

Horford
Smoove
West/Chill
JJ
Lowery

3pt Lineup:

Horford (for rebounding)
Smoove
JJ
Barbosa
Bibby

Big Lineup (if Smoove is resting)
Diop
Horford
Chill
JJ
Barbosa

Notice how each of these line-ups look good under their respective category, yet many of them look so similar to one another? That means we have a roster full of speed, range, and defense. I realize this might put us over the luxury tax for a year (even with the trade reducing team salary), but that seems like a small price to pay to build around your core so efficiently, complimenting their talents and preserving team chemistry. Besides, after what the ownership has put the fans through the past few years, paying a few extra tax dollars for the fans won’t hurt.


ADDITIONAL TRADES:

If you did not read the original post above the jist of it is: resign smoove, chill, west, (and Richardson if possible), sign diop using mid-level exception, trade marv and law for barbosa, trade zaza and a first rounder for Lowery and fillers. To be clear, any of the following trades would occur after we traded Marv and Law for Barbosa. Below, I will provide extra ways in which we could obtain Lowery. Also, since the ASG would not likely allow the team to go into the luxary tax, I will provide a second set of the similar trades showing how they could proceed underneath the salary cap, without Diop.



__
__
This trade assumes that we did NOT sign Diop and would need a big man. It is an alternate form of the Villanova trade presented previously when I was considering Diop.

Milwaukee needs to sign Ruffin to a salary ratio equal to or greater than 2.9

ATL: Gets Lowery, Ruffin, Brown + fillers from Memphis (totaling 36 in salary ratio), 2009 Memphis 2nd rounder, 2010 Memphis 2nd rounder
Trades: Bibby, Zaza, 09 1st rounder

Milwaukee gets: Zaza, Hawks 1st rounder
Trades: Villanova, Ruffin

Memphis Gets: Villanova, Bibby
Trades: Lowery, Brown, fillers, 09 and 10 2nd rounders

We could give Milwaukee a 2nd rounder if needed to compensate them for Ruffin, and then trade our remaining two 2nd rounders for a 1st rounder.

What Atl gets: Starting lineup of Horford, Smv, JJ, Bar, Lowry with Brown and Ruffin providing a solid defensive big man presence off the bench and great rebounding. We allow Milwaukee to have our first rounder pick, but we pick up two second rounders we can trade for a first.

What Miwaukee gets: They fulfill their desire to move Villanova to make room for their new draftee. They also clear a little cap space, which is pivotal since they will have resign some of their key players soon. The rookie pick ensures that they can continue to stock the roster with cheap young talent.

What Memphis Gets: Bibby’s expiring contract really only clears the extra amount of cap that is the difference between Villanova’s contract and Lowry’s plus any fillers they already have under contract. Bibby provides a young team with a veteran presence at point guard though, and everyone saw how much that helped the Hawks. Also, as I said before: They desperately need a big man other than Darko and Warrick. Villanova gives them toughness at the 4 spot, and allows the team to stay respectfully young so that key players won’t be retiring just as others reach their potential. Granted they lose Lowery, but the Griz don’t seem to married to him, and they still have Conley and Critteon.

__
This trade assumes that we did NOT sign Diop and would need a big man. It is an alternate form of the trade sending Curry, Lee, and Chandler to the Knicks, which was previously presented when I was considering Diop.
4708401

Atl gets Lowery, Rose, Brown
Atl trades: Bibby, 2009 2nd rounder, 2010 2nd rounder

NY gets Bibby, Walker, Memphis 2009 2nd rounder to NY, Atl 2009 2nd rounder, Atl 2010 2nd Rounder
Trades: Curry, Lee, Chandler, Rose

Memphis gets Curry, Chandler, Lee
Trades: Lowry, K.Brown, 09 2nd rounder, 2010 2nd rounder

Atlanta gets: The same thing they get in the similar trade I posted, only with K.Brown included since this trade assumes we would not sign Diop due to the luxury tax.

Memphis gets: The same thing in the similar trade I posted.

NY gets: A ton of expiring contracts, a veteran point to run the team when Marbury is bought out, 3 2nd rounders to use as currency in future trades for expiring contract or better draft picks.

__
[b]This trade works for the Hawks whether or not we sign Diop, because it provides us with Kwame Brown as a back-up through a sign and trade. He seems to be a solid defender, rebounder, and scorer, although he doesn’t particularly excel at any one thing. Lowry and Brown (with Diop) (win now with Randolph)
4702247

Memphis would need to sign Brown to a three year deal (only first year guaranteed) for a salary ratio equal to at least 12.5 salary ratio (approximately 3.5 mill) (12.5 ratio represent here by Conley)

ATL gets: Lowery, K.Brown, Walker, Memphis 2009 2nd rounder, Memphis 2010 2nd rounder
Trades: Bibby, 2009 1st rounder, Solo

NY Gets: Bibby, Hawks 1st Rounder
Trades: Randolph

Memphis gets: Randolph, Solo.
Trades: Lowery, K.Brown, Walker, 09 2nd rounder, 2010 2nd rounder


Atlanta Gets: The same starting lineup I’ve been pitching (Hor, Smv, JJ, Bar, Low) with Chill, K.Brown, (and Diop if we signed him) coming off the bench. We have Walker’s contract coming off the books the following year, and two second rounders should be easy to package to allow us to significantly improve our position in next year’s draft.

What NY Gets: They get a point guard to run the team so that they can buy out Marbury. When I constructed this trade, I had not heard about them signing Duhon, but I believe this trade is still worthwhile. Bibby’s expiring contract clears a lot of cap space for them while Bibby will provide a proven veteran presence at point guard for a year when Marbury is gone, and they obtain a first rounder they can use to further stock their team with cheap young talent and successfully enter the rebuilding stage. Randolph’s departure also opens up playing time for rising young stars such as David Lee.

What Memphis Gets: What is unique about this trade is that it caters to Memphis, should they decide that they want to win some games now, and allow their young talent to develop around a rock solid veteran inside presence. They essential get Randolph for Lowery plus fillers. They retain their 1st round picks and Lowery’s position is covered by Conley, and Critteon. If NY needed the deal to be sweetened, it would come from Memphis, because this trade plays to their needs extremely well.


An adjustment that could be made to this trade to sweeten the deal for Memphis just a bit is to give them Zaza instead of Solo. We would need for Brown and fillers to each have 3 year deals (only first year guaranteed) with a combined Salary ratio equal to 22 (roughly 6.5 mill)



As you can see, it is very feasible to establish a roster that is roughly as follows:

Starters:
Hortford
Smoove
JJ
Barbosa
Lowery

Bench:
Chill
Diop (if we want to go into the luxury tax) and/or K.Brown
Bibby (in some instances, unless we trade him)
West
Richardson

I believe this is a line of action that is achievable through many different trade options, and is worth pursuing in order to produce a roster that builds off our core talent’s strengths, making us a team with a balance of speed and defense that the league has rarely seen.

___
Trades we could have done after signing Diop:

This trade assumes that we have signed Diop and only obtains Lowry (as opposed to pursuing back up big men as well.)

Atl: Trades: Zaza, 09 1st Rounder
Gets: Lowry + fillers

Milwaukee Trades: Villanova
Gets: Zaza, Hawks 1st Rounder

Memphis Trades: Lowry + fillers
Memphis Gets: Villanova

To sweeten this deal I would send Memphis the 2010 2nd Rounder if needed.

What Atlanta gets: We round out a starting roster of Horford, Smoove, JJ, Barbosa, Lowery, with Bibby, Chill, and Diop coming off the bench as offensive/defensive sparks.
Afterwards, I would try to sign Michael Ruffin cheaply as to further toughen up the bench.

What Milwaukee gets: They fulfill their desire to move Villanova to make room for their new draftee. They also clear a little cap space, which is pivotal since they will have resign some of their key players soon. The rookie pick ensures that they can continue to stock the roster with cheap young talent.

What Memphis gets: They desperately need a big man other than Darko and Warrick. Villanova gives them toughness at the 4 spot, and allows the team to stay respectfully young so that key players won’t be retiring just as others reach their potential. Granted they lose Lowery, but the Griz don’t seem to married to him, and they still have Conley and Critteon.



__
This trade also assumes that we have signed Diop and only obtains Lowry (as opposed to pursuing back up big men as well.)

#4700045

Atlanta Gets: Lowery, Walker, Rose, 2010 Memphis 2nd rounder
Atlanta Trades: Bibby, Zaza

NY Gets: Bibby, Zaza, Memphis 2009 2nd rounder
NY trades: Curry, Chandler, Lee, Rose

Memphis Gets Curry, Chandler, Lee
Memphis Trades: Lowery, Walker, 2009 2nd rounder, 2010 2nd rounder

What Atlanta Gets: We round out a starting roster of Horford, Smoove, JJ, Barbosa, Lowery, with Chill, and Diop coming off the bench. Since we trade Bibby, Barbosa would rotate down to play point guard when Lowery rests. Walker and Rose allow us to maintain a large amount of expiring contracts, and a 2nd rounder can be traded with our 1st rounder, for a better 1st rounder next year.

What NY Gets: They get a point guard to run the team so that they can buy out Marbury. When I constructed this trade, I had not heard about them signing Duhon, but I believe this trade is still worthwhile. Bibby and Zaza’s expiring contracts clear an absolute ton of cap space for the Knicks. That’s more in expiring contracts than they will be able to get from anywhere else. It’s a perfect too, in that Bibby will provide a proven veteran presence at point guard for a year when Marbury is gone, Zaza steps in as a solid presence for Curry, and they obtain a second rounder they can use to increase their position in the 1st round of next years draft, or as a deal sweetner in future moves. They have to cut loose a couple of talented young players, but hey, you can’t just move dead weight contracts like Curry’s on it’s own.

What Memphis gets: They get the big men they need in the talented Lee, and the one-dimensional low post scoring of Curry’s game. They also get another young talent in Chandler. Their roster is a bit crowded at the 3 spot, but that just mean they can move someone like Jaric later to further improve their big men. Granted they lose Lowery, but the Griz don’t seem to married to him, and they still have Conley and Critteon.

[Retrovision]

Diop is going to Dallas for 5 years.

[killbuckner]

you can't honestly think that anyone is going to read all of this. You should cut it down by taking out all your scenarios that have Diop in them since he has already agreed to play for the mavs for the full MLE

[Rod700]

^^I can't honestly expect everyone to read all of it. I'm only interested in replies from those who have the attention span though. If Diop is signing with Dallas, skim over that part.

[jagstang76]

I got as far as the Randolph to MEM deal. It makes a lot of sense for Memphis to get a solid inside scorer. With Gay, Conley, and now Mayo, they have a very solid, young team for Randolph to bolster. It also takes the pressure off Darko to be more than who he really is (a defensive Center). Add to that the fact that they only have 2 bigs on the roster right now (3 if you think Warrick is actually big) makes this deal look even better. Lowry is a very solid PG and the kind of guy that you want to keep around somehow, but necessity dictates moving a quality player for another at a position of greater need.

From the NYK perspective, they are getting a lot more cap relief in preparation for 2010's offseason. Yes, they lose a valuable player in Zach, but they do have capable players ready to fill his shoes as Rod700 pointed out. My question is are they willing to let Zach go at this time? They've just added Duhon to a roster already full of PGs/combo guards. By letting Zach go and getting only Bibby, they are getting a lot smaller and thinner on the front line. So, if they are willing to go through some really rough times with Lee starting and no one but minimum contracts backing him up, it might be worth the extra cap room and additional 1st.

It really loses steam for me when you look at what ATL is getting. Granted, Lowry is a good young PG who would be a nice complement with Law. But look at all the scrubs we're getting in return. People have talked about bringing Kwame here, but I'd only really consider it if he were willing to take Zaza money. Walker should be retired by now. He would be a decent bench player with his cagey ways of scoring, but he offers very little else to this team. The best thing that could happen is for him to retire after the trade is completed, taking a lot of money off the books immediately. But I don't expect him to do that. The picks might come in handy, especially since we're losing our 1st again. All I'm wondering is this: Is Lowry worth trading Bibby and our 1st for? Yeah it's not all we're getting, but I'm not sure any of the add-ons to this deal are really going to be worth it in the long run. Having two decent PGs would be great, but we had that with Bibby. With Lowry, we get better defense, but we are sacrificing on offense (however inconsistent it was) as Lowry can't shoot like Bibby.

Overall, I'm not sure I get the Barbosa fixation either. IMO, it would be better to hang on to Marvin as he provides more size to an already small frontcourt. Not to say that JJ at SF wouldn't work and Barb wouldn't be a nice addition. I just think the net gain is minimal at best. I'd rather do the Lowry deal that I've discussed above and not have to get so much smaller or lose out on potential. If we just did that deal, we'd have a lot more depth to work with and be stronger on D.

Lowry, Law
JJ, West
Marvin, Chill
Smoove, Walker
Horford, Zaza, Brown

[killbuckner]

Randolph is an unrestricted free agent. The grizzlies can just sign him if they want

[Rod700]

Thanks Jagstang. Just to add one thing, Walker's contract has a team option next year, followed by a guaranteed year if he is signed. Thus, we could use him as an expiring contract. I confirmed this on the Memphis board.

[killbuckner]

sorry- thought you were talking about randolph morris. the site isn't letting me update the post for some weird reason.

[jagstang76]

I did see that Walker has a team option next year, and that is definitely nice. There's always the chance that he just gets tired of being moved around and calls it quits, but we can definitely treat him as an expired deal with that team option. It's a nice chunk of change that can be handed over to Marvin next year. Again, he will be a decent player to have around for depth purposes, but his value has gone way down since he was here last. Brown is virtually in the same boat, except he is actually still young and could find a way to resurrect his career with someone who will give a few mil. These guys are going to provide only some depth though, which is nothing to sneeze at. I just want to be sure that we aren't going to give up about $6 mil in cap room and a 1st round pick for one capable player. We need a move that can give us consistent depth who will help us put up more Ws and do better in the playoffs. Do you think any of these guys we'd acquire will make that kind of difference? I'm just not sure.

[Rod700]

Well, I was viewing this trade as a follow-up to the Marv/Law for Barbosa deal, which means that it woud be putting the finishing touches on roster rather than being the intial first step to improvement. I understand that you would rather keep Marv though, and in looking at this trade from that stand point, I could understand wanting more than Lowery, Brown, and Walker's expiring for Bibby and a first. One thing to point out though, we are getting back two second rounders in that trade, which we could package and trade for a late first rounder to replace the one we traded. So we are really only losing Bibby and downgrading our first round pick.

[Rod700]

PS: Just reorganized the post and all trades not counting on Diop being signed are in boldface near the middle of the post.

[Togo]

I think the Marv for Barbosa trade is fair. Barbosa would give you the scoring punch off the bench you need, not to mention spread the floor. Marvin has a lot of potential, and would allow Hill to play less minutes.