So, how many wins next season?

grantpb · Post #1 » by **grantpb** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 1:42 am

The Hornets had a pretty ridiculous turnaround in their first year in OKC.

I can't say that I expect the same thing from this young Seattle team. This team will be a very good team in a couple of years, but they still have plenty of growing to do...

If I had to predict, I would guess only a minimal increase in wins, something along the lines of 30-52.

What do you guys think?

m23uza1hem36 · Post #2 » by **m23uza1hem36** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 1:53 am

No way they get close to 50 wins in the west, not even 40, hell not 35, I think 30 wins is where I'd put my money, a great turnaround would be 35-40 wins.

grantpb · Post #3 » by **grantpb** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 2:03 am

Haha, I meant their record would be 30-52...

So 30 wins...

Post #4 » by **Devin 1L** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 2:07 am

m23uza1hem36 wrote:No way they get close to 50 wins in the west, not even 40, hell not 35, I think 30 wins is where I'd put my money, a great turnaround would be 35-40 wins.

I'm pretty sure he meant 30 and 52, not 30 to 52.

Anyhow, I don't expect them to be much better just yet. Frankly, I doubt that they expect to be much better. This is a young team and it's being built for the future.

I'll say 26-56.

mnkinga23 · Post #5 » by **mnkinga23** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 2:43 am

To get to 30 wins would be an improvement of eleven wins I think so that would be a substantial improvement. Durant and Green should be better so thirty wins is obtainable and I for one would be happy with that kind of maturation from the young players.

Post #6 » by **Devin 1L** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 2:52 am

mnkinga23 wrote:To get to 30 wins would be an improvement of eleven wins I think so that would be a substantial improvement. Durant and Green should be better so thirty wins is obtainable and I for one would be happy with that kind of maturation from the young players.

They actually won 20 games last season; nevertheless, a 10 game improvement would be a pretty good improvement.

It sure would have been something if they could have been able to pair Beasley with Durant. Wow, those two would have really presented some mismatch problems and been a force to reckon with right away.

bmw42690 · Post #7 » by **bmw42690** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 4:07 am

Today in the newspaper here in OKC they actually compared the Hornets when they first arrived to this team. There actually were alot of similarities. By no means do i think they are going to do what the Hornets did though. I would say 28-33 wins would be a good and realistic year.

ljp24 · Post #8 » by **ljp24** » Mon Jul 7, 2008 4:42 am

Yeah, 28-33 wins sounds about right.

oksportsguy · Post #9 » by **oksportsguy** » Tue Jul 8, 2008 5:37 am

They may get 20 -30 wins, I'd say closer to 25.

GOBlazers · Post #10 » by **GOBlazers** » Tue Jul 8, 2008 8:03 am

Your team will be one year more experienced and have better chemistry. And Durant will have gained some weight and adapted to the NBA game. But, I don't think that will be enough to improve by 10 wins in the Ultra Competitive Western Conference. I think 27 wins is more reasonable. It's going to be a couple of long years for you OKC fans, IMHO.

Hiphophead101 · Post #11 » by **Hiphophead101** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:24 am

I'd say 27 wins. *I posted this under quick reply, and interestingly enough the dude ahead of me said the same thing... Odd and unintended*

sonic-ben · Post #12 » by **sonic-ben** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 1:11 pm

all depends on the groweth of the center position

Kane2111 · Post #13 » by **Kane2111** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:15 pm

once the roster takes shape you'll have a better idea of what to expect. I expect Durant to make huge leaps.

LeBron at 19: 20.9 points, 5.9 assists, 5.5 rebounds, 1.6 steals 41.7% shooting
LeBron at 20: 27.2 points, 7.2 assists, 7.4 rebounds, 2.2 steals 47.2% shooting

35 - 42 wins

Durant at 19: 20.3 points, 2.4 assists, 4.4 rebounds, 1 steal 43% shooting
-Use LeBron's progression...
Durant at 20? 26.4 points, 2.9 assists, 5.9 rebounds, 1.3 steals, 48.6% shooting

Pretty stupid method. And actually Durant's stats more mirror Melo.

Melo at 19: 21 points, 2.8 assists, 6.1 rebounds, 1.2 steals 42% shooting

Melo's numbers didn't really get better his second year, unfortunately. But by Melo's 4th year he was averaging 28.9 points, on 47.6% shooting.

So in Durant's 4th year we can expect 27.9 points on 48.7% shooting

Except none of this is actually accurate, because Durant was playing out of position with a bunch of bums last year. Plus he didn't have even CLOSE to an NBA body in his rookie season (unlike Bron and Melo who were both pretty big as rookies). So I expect Durant to average 35+ on 50%+ shooting next year... and for OKC to win 42 games.

jenn_gp · Post #14 » by **jenn_gp** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 6:48 pm

Kane2111 wrote:So I expect Durant to average 35+ on 50%+ shooting next year... and for OKC to win 42 games.

Are you out of your mind? As long as PJ is coaching this team, I don't expect him to be able to pull through with a winning record like that. The team completely lost faith in him and tuned him out 3/4 (possibly even earlier that that) into the season.

No more than 25-30 wins this season IMO.

And just because I am a Sonics fan doesn't mean I'm a OKC fan. I'm not trying to start anything and you'll more than likely never hear from me again. I just had to respond to Kane's post. I'm not sure how many games he watched last season, but I think he's giving you false hope.

bmw42690 · Post #15 » by **bmw42690** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:46 pm

Those are some pretty lofty expectations for next year. Those expectations (for Durant) should be for a couple years down the road, not this year. As for the 42 wins, how did you come to that?

Post #16 » by **wizkid27** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 7:59 pm

I think they will go 26-56. They've improved a bit, but they've still got a big hole in the middle. It will be interesting to see how they handle the rotation with so many new faces on the team.

McG · Post #17 » by **McG** » Fri Jul 11, 2008 10:14 pm

Anything over 25 wins is definitely getting into wishful thinking. I would argue that the team is actually worse than most of last year, minus the improvement of Durant/Green. I'm sure many OKC fans don't realize that Kurt Thomas was a huge part of their success last year, and his departure correlated with a substantial drop-off in team post defense and rebounding. He was a big part of around 15 of those W's. Sure they added Westbrook, but he will do more good than bad on the court his first year. DJ White should be nice off the bench but more time for him means more Wilcox at C means bad post defense and rebounding. They need that Kurt Thomas-type of player before even 30 wins is managable. My guess: 23 W's.

Kane2111 · Post #18 » by **Kane2111** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 8:57 pm

bmw42690 wrote:Those are some pretty lofty expectations for next year. Those expectations (for Durant) should be for a couple years down the road, not this year. As for the 42 wins, how did you come to that?

It's just a prediction. I didn't say I'd be right.

I have extremely high hopes for Durant. I'm in the Bill Simmons camp when it comes to Kevin Durant. Simmons expected Durant to average 30+ after the allstar break last year. It didn't exactly happen, but the guy finished the 2nd half of the season shooting 50%. I think they'll shock everyone next year.

Could be wrong, but that's what I'm expecting. 42 wins. I'm sticking with it. I think the tankjob was in last year. This year they'll be trying to be competitive. I also am kinda planning for some additional moves that haven't yet happened. If I'm wrong, so be it. People had Chicago winning the east last year. Lol. This stuff is unpredictable.

bmw42690 · Post #19 » by **bmw42690** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 10:13 pm

I hope i didnt sound rude, i was just curious. I think Durant very well could reach those numbers. I take it your a fan of Bill Simmons? I am, his stuff is pretty funny and interesting.lol. I think last year having to deal with all of the questions about moving and stuff didnt help the winning process. I think there will be moves made so it is pretty unpredictable. Lol at Chicago.

Joe Jackson · Post #20 » by **Joe Jackson** » Sun Jul 13, 2008 11:58 pm

sonic-ben wrote:all depends on the groweth of the center position

I agree completely with this.
With so much depending on growth from within by the young players in general I think the post position will be the biggest factor in how much progress is made.

I think the other guys will come along, like durant and green and now Westbrook.
But if Petro and/or Swift aided by Collison can start to become a servicable Center solution I think the progress could go up more than people expect.

27 - 32 wins would be real good progress ordinarily, but I think if one or both of the big guys can become effective the ToBeNamed's could surpass that. Maybe 35 or better.

It will also be hard to make great improvement in the tough WC where nearly all teams are pretty damn good, but hey we still get to play those teams 41 times on our home court and I think the support this young team is going to get here will give them alot of confidence and energy and they may just get to be pretty damn tough at home themselves pretty quick.