ImageImageImageImageImage

Exactly how bad is the offense at the break?

Moderator: JaysRule15

The_Hater
GHOAT (Greatest Hater Of All Time)
Posts: 85,319
And1: 40,062
Joined: May 23, 2001
     

Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#1 » by The_Hater » Mon Jul 7, 2008 5:48 pm

Journeyman Joe Inglett currently leds the team in OPS with .829. Remember that he's been sent to the minors twice this season and probably wouldn't even be on the roster if Aaron Hill was healthy. Scott Rolen is the only other Jay over .800.

Contrast that with former Jay castoff Eric Hinske who is currently at .852. This shouldn't be a big shock as this is what happens whenever you platton Eric Hinske. He still can't hit lefties (.595 OPS) and he's a career .808 vs RHP. But Gibbons misused him and JP subsequently tossed him away.

But neither Inglett or Rolen have the 275 plate appearances needed to qualify any of the AL leader boards. Neither does Rod Barajas who currently sits 3rd on the team. So that makes the actual team (qualifying) leader Vernon Wells.

Yes, $17 million man Vernon Wells is at .768, which is awful for any OF even if he was getting paid half that amount. He's just been overlooked for being awful because so many players have been worse and it's actually an improvement over his pathetic 2007 numbers.

Newly minted $10 million man Alex Rios is at .734 with only 4 HR's and is the worst hitter in MLB currently occupying the 3-4 spots in an order.

We have no hitter's with double digit HR's therefore nobody is on pace for 20 HR's. Philadelphia has 3 players with more than 20 HR's each.

It's a pitiful perforance on every level and completely wastes what has been the 4th best pitching staff in MLB. And to think that just 24 months ago we appeared to be a decent offensive team in search of pitching? So why hasn't JP made any changes other than picking up retreads and castoffs from the waiver wire? Does he honestly expect different results simply by changing managers?

JP needs to go and I hope to God that Godfrey sees this now.
AthensBucks wrote:Lowry is done.
Nurse is below average at best.
Masai is overrated.
I dont get how so many people believe in the raptors,they have zero to chance to win it all.


April 14th, 2019.
whiterasta80
Analyst
Posts: 3,031
And1: 10
Joined: Apr 14, 2004
Location: London, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#2 » by whiterasta80 » Mon Jul 7, 2008 6:48 pm

Give them time and the hitters will come around...

The reality is that this team is poorly constructed with lefty/righty balance, and a DH who would be on the bench of every other American League team. We have 2 outfielders who were rewarded with big contracts for performances in contract years (both of who had questionable motivation before the contracts were awarded). A first baseman who hits just well enough to play SS on a 1997 national league team. And despite of all those things, JP seems to be trying to remedy this by becoming the first GM to ever field a team consisting solely of utility infielders. As you say, JP must go.

Now for the one good thing: While Alex Rios has regressed in terms of his power numbers, he is on pace to steal 39 bases. He doesn't need to hit 30 HRs if he can do that. Perhaps we just miscast him as a middle of the order power hitter, instead of a top of the order speedster.
evilRyu
General Manager
Posts: 8,394
And1: 2
Joined: Jan 23, 2006

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#3 » by evilRyu » Mon Jul 7, 2008 7:41 pm

Team ranks in the AL (14 teams):

Batting Average: .259 (10th)
Home Runs: 62 (13th)
RBI's: 341 (12th)
Runs: 364 (12th)
Hits: 781 (10th)
Doubles: 154 (11th)
OB%: .335 (6th)
SLG%: .382 (12th)

So overall...... pretty bad
evilRyu
General Manager
Posts: 8,394
And1: 2
Joined: Jan 23, 2006

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#4 » by evilRyu » Mon Jul 7, 2008 7:43 pm

The_Hater wrote:We have no hitter's with double digit HR's therefore nobody is on pace for 20 HR's. Philadelphia has 3 players with more than 20 HR's each.


That really jumps out at me...... Wells leads with 9, despite being on the DL
The_Hater
GHOAT (Greatest Hater Of All Time)
Posts: 85,319
And1: 40,062
Joined: May 23, 2001
     

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#5 » by The_Hater » Mon Jul 7, 2008 8:32 pm

evilRyu wrote:Team ranks in the AL (14 teams):

Batting Average: .259 (10th)
Home Runs: 62 (13th)
RBI's: 341 (12th)
Runs: 364 (12th)
Hits: 781 (10th)
Doubles: 154 (11th)
OB%: .335 (6th)
SLG%: .382 (12th)

So overall...... pretty bad


Start listing BA, OBP, OPS etc... in RISP, bases loaded and other clutch situations and those numbers shrink even further.
AthensBucks wrote:Lowry is done.
Nurse is below average at best.
Masai is overrated.
I dont get how so many people believe in the raptors,they have zero to chance to win it all.


April 14th, 2019.
whiterasta80
Analyst
Posts: 3,031
And1: 10
Joined: Apr 14, 2004
Location: London, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#6 » by whiterasta80 » Tue Jul 8, 2008 1:28 am

Our team is balls basically. My beer league team could replace our outfield, and we'd only notice a difference defensively.
User avatar
Schad
Retired Mod
Retired Mod
Posts: 58,571
And1: 18,057
Joined: Feb 08, 2006
Location: The Goat Rodeo
     

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#7 » by Schad » Tue Jul 8, 2008 3:55 am

The_Hater wrote:
evilRyu wrote:Team ranks in the AL (14 teams):

Batting Average: .259 (10th)
Home Runs: 62 (13th)
RBI's: 341 (12th)
Runs: 364 (12th)
Hits: 781 (10th)
Doubles: 154 (11th)
OB%: .335 (6th)
SLG%: .382 (12th)

So overall...... pretty bad


Start listing BA, OBP, OPS etc... in RISP, bases loaded and other clutch situations and those numbers shrink even further.


The clutch numbers are staggering; this is an offense that should be merely poor rather than atrocious, but has suddenly morphed from a low-GIDP, moderately 'clutch' team a year ago into an absolute disaster with guys on base. And setting aside pop psychology about the lack of a winner's mentality or some such (and considering the modest turnover from last year, that spurious cause can be all but thrown out, IMO), the numbers are tough to explain.

My one stab at it, though, would be the tendency to take far too many good pitches early in the count. As I have said before, patience is a great attribute, but if it isn't offset by occasional attempts to hit the first pitch 600 feet it's an invitation for pitchers to get ahead in the count, and to throw a disproportionate number of fastballs...a number of SABRmetricians have shown just how potent a weapon the first-strike fastball is over the course of the season, and I suspect that the Jays are living proof.

Last year the team was 11 points below the league average in OBP and 4 points below the league average in SLG...this year they are 3 points above the league average in OBP and an astonishing 28 points below league average in slugging. And once pitchers get ahead with RISP, I would expect them to throw fewer challenge pitches than they might with the bases empty. And unless the hitter can maintain an excellent idea of the strike zone down 1-2, that means plenty of swings at 'pitcher's pitches' designed to mostly to stay alive, and plenty of mediocre contact.
Image
**** your asterisk.
Peteros
Inactive user
Inactive user
Posts: 2,294
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 22, 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#8 » by Peteros » Tue Jul 8, 2008 12:17 pm

Something isn't right with this team. It could be one or 2 players on the team that are messing with the team chemistry. How can we have so many good players struggling this year?? It just doesn't make sense. Something is going on.

This is why I think the team needs to trade some of their assets (pitching.. their only asset unfortunately right now.) to get some help with the hitting.

Give them time and the hitters will come around...


How many times have we said that this year? lol.

We are the hallway point of the season, and the hitters haven't shown us anything. The HR/OPS stat is staggering. To think that we might not have a hitter reach 20 HR's this season is depressing.
whiterasta80
Analyst
Posts: 3,031
And1: 10
Joined: Apr 14, 2004
Location: London, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#9 » by whiterasta80 » Tue Jul 8, 2008 1:41 pm

I guess what I meant with "give the hitters time to come around" is that if we give them much more time, they'll be sent to AAA and their hitting will all of a sudden get better. Look at Kevin Mench :-)

The Twins put a number of teams in the playoffs over the years without legit HR threats, so I'm fine with the lack of power as long as we find other ways to score- which we are not!

Schaddy is absolutely right about the problem being patience. Scott Rolen's troubles are more likely a result of him coming back from injury since he wasn't raised in Oakland, but the remainder of our players have been told that stupid "I will not swing at a 3-0 pitch" crap to the point where we take strike one with regularity.
Peteros
Inactive user
Inactive user
Posts: 2,294
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 22, 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#10 » by Peteros » Tue Jul 8, 2008 1:59 pm

Hasn't this approach (being patient at the plate) changed with Cito coming in?? Look what it has done?

Let's face it, the hitters on this team aren't good enough. They lack the ability to score runs and move runners over. period. you can bring in any coach you want, it won't solve the lack of hitting this year.
whiterasta80
Analyst
Posts: 3,031
And1: 10
Joined: Apr 14, 2004
Location: London, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#11 » by whiterasta80 » Tue Jul 8, 2008 4:18 pm

Approaches don't change over night, its a habit that has been ingrained over years and now they're being asked to change.

That's particularly apparent when talking about moving runners over. If a guy hasn't laid down a bunt in 3 years are you really expecting the first try to be successful?

Don't get me wrong, I completely agree with the notion that the hitters on this team aren't good enough. I just happen to disagree with the logic you used to lay out your argument.

The Oakland approach (high obp, hr, no sacrifices...) is a flawed approach and it becomes more apparent on bad teams (ask Oakland how they've felt about their hitting the last few years). This team would still not be great hitters, but they'd be light years ahead of where they are if we didn't have this whole moneyball thing going on for so long.
Peteros
Inactive user
Inactive user
Posts: 2,294
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 22, 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#12 » by Peteros » Tue Jul 8, 2008 5:25 pm

whiterasta80 wrote:Approaches don't change over night, its a habit that has been ingrained over years and now they're being asked to change.


More than half the lineup is underachieving this year. It's not like they had a bad approach in the past. Just look at the career stats for say Wells, Rolen, and Overbay they were able to hit HR's and score runs in the past. Injuries aside, all 3 players mentioned above have underachieved this year for whatever reason. You can blame it on bad habits at the plate, coaching, team chemistry.. whatever. The end result is a poor hitting team. Even JP said he is dissapointed with the hitting and was expecting a better effort and result from these guys. Maybe he's just saying that to save his job, and the real truth is that we have a weak lineup that just can't hit and score runs, and JP knows that.


That's particularly apparent when talking about moving runners over. If a guy hasn't laid down a bunt in 3 years are you really expecting the first try to be successful?


Isn't this approach apparent with all American League teams? It's not only the Blue Jays.
User avatar
LLJ
RealGM
Posts: 53,829
And1: 18,081
Joined: Jul 10, 2003
Location: Unfixed

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#13 » by LLJ » Tue Jul 8, 2008 5:58 pm

whiterasta80 wrote:I guess what I meant with "give the hitters time to come around" is that if we give them much more time


Yes, like 4 years from now when we're hopefully fielding an entirely new roster.
Peteros
Inactive user
Inactive user
Posts: 2,294
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 22, 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#14 » by Peteros » Tue Jul 8, 2008 6:02 pm

http://www.sportsnet.ca/baseball/2008/0 ... troubling/

Sums it up pretty well. Your thoughts??
User avatar
sule
RealGM
Posts: 14,360
And1: 34,217
Joined: Nov 11, 2006
     

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#15 » by sule » Tue Jul 8, 2008 9:43 pm

We should sign Bonds for the remainder of the season and trade Burnett for either prospects or a SS.

We can't get much worse with our bats, and since we're falling further away from the playoffs, it certainly couldn't hurt anymore. If he becomes too much of a distraction, we could just release him.

At this point, I'm willing to try anything.
Peteros
Inactive user
Inactive user
Posts: 2,294
And1: 0
Joined: Feb 22, 2006
Location: Toronto, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#16 » by Peteros » Tue Jul 8, 2008 9:51 pm

Bonds is finished. He's not the answer to this team's problems.

We are lacking a true leadoff guy, like a Damon or Ichiro. Imagine a player like that on this team?? It would make us better. Someone who can take pitches for BB, reach on base and is a threat to steal bases.
whiterasta80
Analyst
Posts: 3,031
And1: 10
Joined: Apr 14, 2004
Location: London, Canada

Re: Exactly how bad is the offense at the break? 

Post#17 » by whiterasta80 » Tue Jul 8, 2008 10:19 pm

Peteros wrote:
More than half the lineup is underachieving this year. It's not like they had a bad approach in the past. Just look at the career stats for say Wells, Rolen, and Overbay they were able to hit HR's and score runs in the past. Injuries aside, all 3 players mentioned above have underachieved this year for whatever reason. You can blame it on bad habits at the plate, coaching, team chemistry.. whatever. The end result is a poor hitting team. Even JP said he is dissapointed with the hitting and was expecting a better effort and result from these guys. Maybe he's just saying that to save his job, and the real truth is that we have a weak lineup that just can't hit and score runs, and JP knows that.


Of course JP said he was disappointed with the hitting, what do you want him to do- start handing out bonuses?

And I don't think you can lump Rolen in with everyone else, because this may actually be what he's capable of post-injury- obviously we don't know.

I still disagree with your reference to past performances to justify the approach we've been taking for the past few years. We've always had a bad approach, its just becoming truly apparent now. Refusing to sacrifice exacerbates slumps and even in good years we've seen our hitters be completely useless for weeks at a time (Rios and Wells being perfect examples of that). We''ve relied on HR's and doubles for our runs and when the hitting goes cold we've sucked. We haven't been able to use productive outs to score runs since the days of Otis Nixon. If we were able to, our team wouldn't be nearly as bad as it is (even if our percentages were identical).

Return to Toronto Blue Jays