An Early Note of Pessimism

[Paydro70]

I suppose the topic says it all. Obviously our team has not yet played a game this season and has a new, HOF coach, so there is a great degree of uncertainty right now. However, barring any dramatic developments with our roster or our competition's, I think our odds of simply making the playoffs, let alone going anywhere past the first round, don't look great.

To begin with, half of the playoffs are essentially booked up with teams that are obviously much better than us: the Celtics, the Pistons, the Magic, and the Sixers, who look good for 50 wins with Brand.

What really leads to my pessimism, however, is the way that a few other teams who were better than us last year have improved their rosters. Toronto, for instance, has become immediately and obviously better now that they have gotten rid of one of their two super-talented point guards. Getting O'Neal back gives them a huge improvement in interior defense, a possible offensive improvement, and moves Bosh to the PF. Washington made the playoffs with zero Agent Zero; I can't imagine they're going to do worse now that they have him healthy for the season.

So now we're talking about two playoff spots, one of which will almost certainly be captured by the Cavaliers. Honestly, I don't think anybody on this board would argue that we are likely to supplant LeBron in the playoffs.

So that leaves us Atlanta, who have not gotten better, and if they lose Josh Smith are an immediate lock to fall out. So being optimistic, maybe one of the other 7 teams I've mentioned will suffer some sort of injury or other incident which costs them another spot: LeBron going down (even for a short time), Bosh/JO out for the season, Dwight Howard missing the first game of his career...

That's pretty standard; usually two teams or so fall out of the playoffs. Some of our remaining competition has fallen off: the Pacers and New Jersey are rebuilding, and New York is, as always, hopeless.

So here's the other problem: Miami is going to be back with a vengeance. They were tanking last year, Wade is going to be healthy, and they just drafted the best and most NBA-ready player out there. Chicago, who finished ahead of us last year, has lost nothing and gained Derrick Rose. Milwaukee was injury-ridden and got Richard Jefferson basically for free, though I don't think Alexander will make too much of an impact immediately.

In the meantime, we have probably not gotten much better in terms of our talent. DJ is of course better than McInnis, but Ajinca, if he contributes at all, will probably be no better than Hollins (yet). Richardson is coming off a career season, I don't think he's going to be getting any better, so we're really depending on Brown to improve Felton and Okafor, and we have to hope that Crash goes back to his previous level. How much can Brown really get out of them, though? Can Okafor get to the level of, say, Brand? Is Felton going to get dramatically better? We might need them to, if we're going to win this playoff race.

It's going to take more wins than last year to get a spot in the East, which was 37. The 2007-08 Bobcats were actually an exceptionally lucky team; our pythagorean wins (based on point differential) put us at 29-53. This team therefore might need MORE than 10 extra wins to get into the playoffs, and will be trying to do so with only one substantive roster change: backup point guard.

The main point of this is twofold: 1) Larry Brown had better make a HUGE difference, and 2) I think all the suggestions that we stick with our roster as presently constructed might be a little over-optimistic.

[W_HAMILTON]

In the preseason prediction thread before this past season, myself, and I believe you as well, picked the Chicago Bulls to be in the NBA Finals.

The only thing they ended up winning was the lottery.

It's too early to tell. Yes, some teams look better. But we looked a lot better before the start of last season as well, and we ended up worse off.

Obviously all of these teams are not going to pan out. Some will have injuries. Some will inexplicably suck.

I wouldn't say we are a lock to make the playoffs, but we solved our two biggest problems last season, so unless we lose a major player, or have a lot of injuries, we will be there fighting for a .500 record and a playoff berth.

[W_HAMILTON]

Indiana was ahead of us this past year. They got worse.
New Jersey was ahead of us this past year. They got worse.

The only team behind us that could possibly pass us up is Miami, and I don't know what to think of them yet. I don't think they will suddenly jump up into the elite, I think with the way they are constructed now, they will still be on our level, which probably also includes teams like Milwaukee, Atlanta, and maybe Chicago, fighting for those bottom playoff spots.

[chrbal]

Cleveland still hasn't done anything that really improves them. And the Raptors didn't get Jermaine O'neal of 5 years ago. There is a reason he could be had for Rasho, an injury prone pg, and a late 1st round pick...

I just don't see the reason for this until the season is at least 20 games strong.

[zoned unc]

well, thats why they play the games.

this team is getting back adam morrison, and possibly but not pobably sean may. we were plagued injuries and terrible coaching last year, but still managed to beat some quality teams. i know you dont want to hear this but i do think we need to let this team gel. theres one thing you can bet on, LB will have a gameplan for this team before the season starts, unlike last year where we didnt find our identity until the last 30 games of the season.

we have a great group of guys on this team that are commited to basketball and will listen to someone that actually knows what the hell he's doing. I expect a marked improvement in all areas and enough of a commitment to defense to be able to take down the teams with better talent.

sure, i would like to see some proven presence down low, but as long as our guys live by LB's mantra we'll be OK.

[Walt Cronkite]

I think we need to make sure Okafor doesn't end up signing with the Clippers before we worry about how good/bad we'll be next season.

[Felton for Pres]

I think the other thing to remember is that besides Nazi, everyone on this team is REALLY young. All things held constant, another year of maturity and preperation should benefit us more than just about anyone else (ok, maybe ATL too).

I agree, the East got better in the middle of the pack. I think its too early to predict anything. I still expect the Pistons to shake things up and I really don't think the Celts will be as good. I think we will have be cautiously opptimistic, not negative at this stage.

[misterglover]

I suppose the topic says it all. Obviously our team has not yet played a game this season and has a new, HOF coach, so there is a great degree of uncertainty right now. However, barring any dramatic developments with our roster or our competition's, I think our odds of simply making the playoffs, let alone going anywhere past the first round, don't look great.

To begin with, half of the playoffs are essentially booked up with teams that are obviously much better than us: the Celtics, the Pistons, the Magic, and the Sixers, who look good for 50 wins with Brand.

What really leads to my pessimism, however, is the way that a few other teams who were better than us last year have improved their rosters. Toronto, for instance, has become immediately and obviously better now that they have gotten rid of one of their two super-talented point guards. Getting O'Neal back gives them a huge improvement in interior defense, a possible offensive improvement, and moves Bosh to the PF. Washington made the playoffs with zero Agent Zero; I can't imagine they're going to do worse now that they have him healthy for the season.

So now we're talking about two playoff spots, one of which will almost certainly be captured by the Cavaliers. Honestly, I don't think anybody on this board would argue that we are likely to supplant LeBron in the playoffs.

So that leaves us Atlanta, who have not gotten better, and if they lose Josh Smith are an immediate lock to fall out. So being optimistic, maybe one of the other 7 teams I've mentioned will suffer some sort of injury or other incident which costs them another spot: LeBron going down (even for a short time), Bosh/JO out for the season, Dwight Howard missing the first game of his career...

That's pretty standard; usually two teams or so fall out of the playoffs. Some of our remaining competition has fallen off: the Pacers and New Jersey are rebuilding, and New York is, as always, hopeless.

So here's the other problem: Miami is going to be back with a vengeance. They were tanking last year, Wade is going to be healthy, and they just drafted the best and most NBA-ready player out there. Chicago, who finished ahead of us last year, has lost nothing and gained Derrick Rose. Milwaukee was injury-ridden and got Richard Jefferson basically for free, though I don't think Alexander will make too much of an impact immediately.

In the meantime, we have probably not gotten much better in terms of our talent. DJ is of course better than McInnis, but Ajinca, if he contributes at all, will probably be no better than Hollins (yet). Richardson is coming off a career season, I don't think he's going to be getting any better, so we're really depending on Brown to improve Felton and Okafor, and we have to hope that Crash goes back to his previous level. How much can Brown really get out of them, though? Can Okafor get to the level of, say, Brand? Is Felton going to get dramatically better? We might need them to, if we're going to win this playoff race.

It's going to take more wins than last year to get a spot in the East, which was 37. The 2007-08 Bobcats were actually an exceptionally lucky team; our pythagorean wins (based on point differential) put us at 29-53. This team therefore might need MORE than 10 extra wins to get into the playoffs, and will be trying to do so with only one substantive roster change: backup point guard.

The main point of this is twofold: 1) Larry Brown had better make a HUGE difference, and 2) I think all the suggestions that we stick with our roster as presently constructed might be a little over-optimistic.

Paydro Thank you, finally somebody else says what I had been trying to say.....Why so many people think we should go into the season with the same team I just dont understand...I love the bobcats but this team isnt good enough, and on this board we truly overvalue players that have done nothing, much like you I think everybody has improved but us...I think if Morrison & May come back and produce we will be better(especially May) but still not good enough...I have us pegged as the last team in our division right now and that doesnt equal playoffs.

Just thanks for the post, this may be the realest post I've read on this board and not someone letting loyalty blind them....its good to see not everyone overvalues a team that has done nothing and want to keep it intact, I thought the idea was to move up or atleast try to move up & not just settle especially when what your settling for is not so good....

[Walt Cronkite]

Immediate impressions as of 12:04 on 7/9:

Celtics/Pistons define the top tier of the East
Orlando/Washington/Philly represent tier 2. Hard to beat teams with some obvious flaws.
Toronto-Destined to make the playoffs barring injury (like if Calderon tears his ACL during the Olympics or something)
Cleveland/Miami/Altanta/NJ are tier 4--teams with a superstar guard
Chicago/NY/Indiana/Milwaukee/Charlotte-Upside teams.

Top tier is a playoff lock<2/8 filled>. Tier 2 is a near lock <5/8 filled>. At least one team from tier 4 makes it, no question <7/8 filled>. One of the tier 5 teams always plays above expectation and makes it in (Philly last year, Orlando the year before).

We have to play even or better with Orlando, Miami, Washington and Atlanta (Division rivalry teams), dominate the majority of the bottom tier teams and surprise 2 or 3 of Philly/Boston/Detroit/Toronto. Doing this gets us into the playoffs, nothing less.

[fluffernutter]

I suppose the topic says it all. Obviously our team has not yet played a game this season and has a new, HOF coach, so there is a great degree of uncertainty right now. However, barring any dramatic developments with our roster or our competition's, I think our odds of simply making the playoffs, let alone going anywhere past the first round, don't look great.

To begin with, half of the playoffs are essentially booked up with teams that are obviously much better than us: the Celtics, the Pistons, the Magic, and the Sixers, who look good for 50 wins with Brand.

What really leads to my pessimism, however, is the way that a few other teams who were better than us last year have improved their rosters. Toronto, for instance, has become immediately and obviously better now that they have gotten rid of one of their two super-talented point guards. Getting O'Neal back gives them a huge improvement in interior defense, a possible offensive improvement, and moves Bosh to the PF. Washington made the playoffs with zero Agent Zero; I can't imagine they're going to do worse now that they have him healthy for the season.

So now we're talking about two playoff spots, one of which will almost certainly be captured by the Cavaliers. Honestly, I don't think anybody on this board would argue that we are likely to supplant LeBron in the playoffs.

So that leaves us Atlanta, who have not gotten better, and if they lose Josh Smith are an immediate lock to fall out. So being optimistic, maybe one of the other 7 teams I've mentioned will suffer some sort of injury or other incident which costs them another spot: LeBron going down (even for a short time), Bosh/JO out for the season, Dwight Howard missing the first game of his career...

That's pretty standard; usually two teams or so fall out of the playoffs. Some of our remaining competition has fallen off: the Pacers and New Jersey are rebuilding, and New York is, as always, hopeless.

So here's the other problem: Miami is going to be back with a vengeance. They were tanking last year, Wade is going to be healthy, and they just drafted the best and most NBA-ready player out there. Chicago, who finished ahead of us last year, has lost nothing and gained Derrick Rose. Milwaukee was injury-ridden and got Richard Jefferson basically for free, though I don't think Alexander will make too much of an impact immediately.

In the meantime, we have probably not gotten much better in terms of our talent. DJ is of course better than McInnis, but Ajinca, if he contributes at all, will probably be no better than Hollins (yet). Richardson is coming off a career season, I don't think he's going to be getting any better, so we're really depending on Brown to improve Felton and Okafor, and we have to hope that Crash goes back to his previous level. How much can Brown really get out of them, though? Can Okafor get to the level of, say, Brand? Is Felton going to get dramatically better? We might need them to, if we're going to win this playoff race.

It's going to take more wins than last year to get a spot in the East, which was 37. The 2007-08 Bobcats were actually an exceptionally lucky team; our pythagorean wins (based on point differential) put us at 29-53. This team therefore might need MORE than 10 extra wins to get into the playoffs, and will be trying to do so with only one substantive roster change: backup point guard.

The main point of this is twofold: 1) Larry Brown had better make a HUGE difference, and 2) I think all the suggestions that we stick with our roster as presently constructed might be a little over-optimistic.

Pshaw.

You vastly underestimate the world-crushing power of Ajinca.

Don't Chicken-Little on us Paydro!

[Rich4114]

It's as simple as this, if there's a deal we can make that makes us better THIS season then do it. If not, we'll have to make due with what we've got and hope the ball rolls in our favor.

There's TONS of wild cards with this team. We've got depth now with Ammo and May returning and DJ backing up the point, we've got possibly one of the best coaches of all time, we've got a project bigand we've got familiarity.

Every year there's always seems to be a few guys (like Crash was for us 2 seasons ago) who just all of the sudden makes it happen and gets to the next level. We've got guys like Felton, Okafor, and Morrison who all have big potential and if put in the right position in the right system can possibly get to the next level and become a big time player for us.

There's no guarantees and I suspect a lot of places will rank us just out or just in the playoffs for the upcoming season. But if things work out then we will be alright.

But I do see both sides. If you want to win in this league. you need someone who is hard to stop - more so on the inside than anything. Okafor gives us the defense, but nobody gives us that go to offensive low post option. If we could strike a deal with sayyyy Utah where we give up one of our abundance of wings (Wallace or Richardson works best because of the salaries) then we're more guaranteed to be in on the playoff mix.

But someone also mentioned teams like the Wizards, Raptors, Sixers, Cavs can all easily fall apart and maybe miss the playoffs when a team like the Bobcats or Bucks sneaks into those other teams spots.

[fatlever]

i agree with paydro in the sense that making the playoff as currently constructed will be tough, not impossible, but tough. hopefully the coaching change, return of injured players and the addition of dj will get us to around 40 wins, assuming we keep okafor and dont suffer a major injury to a core player.

short term we are looking at fighting for an 8th seed.

long term we are looking at fighting for an 8th spot for the next 3-4 years.

we arent going anywhere with our current core of players. so like i said before and keep saying, either we try to make the playoffs for a few years in order to get the fans excited, in that case we should add some MLE types to get us into the 8th seed or better.... OR we need to start figuring out a way to have our salary come off at the same time so we can eventually make a run at a superstar, while collect high draft picks along the way. being stuck at 35-45 wins each year is the absolute worst spot for a franchise.

for now, i am ok with the short-sighted goal of maybe the playoffs, which is why i have advocated siging some MLE guys.

for those that want to make a run at the finals or die trying (which i eventually want to to do in a few years) then i assume you guys are thinking we should let okafor go for cap space, trade wallace for some young talent and picks, and trade felton for some young talent and picks, or trade all three for contracts that expire at the same time......right?

to compete for a title you need a superstar. we dont have anything close to a superstar on our roster. it makes no sense to try to become a contender when its 99% impossible to do so. there is no need to try to make a huge run until we have a superstar. we cant get a superstar unless we: 1) get a top 5 pick and get lucky 2) collect enough assests to trade for one 3) clear enough cap space to sign one.

[Paydro70]

I'm glad I stirred up a little conversation about the team's trajectory. I think there have been some very good points made, to wit:
Hamilton: Obviously it's true, the NBA, like all sports, is hard to predict. But it's unrealistic to expect more than two teams (three at the MOST) to fall out of the playoffs; it simply doesn't happen very often. I tried to leave space for the unexpected in assuming that the most obvious team fails (Atlanta) and that one of the others does too for whatever reason. It is indeed too early to tell, but essentially my point is that I don't see us as having improved our situation much over last season.

Chrbal: It's true Cleveland hasn't improved, but they also don't have to; they still have LeBron, who amazingly enough could still get better, and they were solidly in the playoffs as is. They also will have Varejao and Gibson back to likely play more games than they did last season. As for the need of my post, well, by 20 games into the season we'll probably know fairly well where the team is headed. My point is simply that I don't think we should be complacent about the roster.

Zoned: I wouldn't really call our injury problems unusual. Wallace is a pretty solid bet to get hurt again, we still can't depend on May, and I think it's unlikely we get much of anything out of Morrison. What's left? Dudley, Carroll, JRich, Felton, Okafor, and Mohammed all played 70+ games... we should be so lucky as to have Wallace for 60+ again. I agree with you, Brown is obviously the only serious change from last season, and he has the potential to make literally every player contribute better than last season. The whole year we cried for two things: no more McInnis, and no more Vincent. We're going to find out how much those two things mattered; but without a change to who's playing the major minutes, I'm afraid the answer might be "not enough."

Feltonforpres: As I said above, the youth plus finally having a great coach (and a great teacher) has the potential to make a major difference. The Celtics are kind of irrelevant; even a 10 game decline would still put them in the top of the conference. Major changes can still occur; if the Pistons get out the dynamite, our chances might improve drastically. I'm skeptical they're actually going to do much though.

Misterglover: You are I think a bit more pessimistic than I am. One thing I should say is that it might not be people on this board overvaluing players so much as being reluctant to trade them. There is at least one good reason for this: many are on the downside of their value. It's unlikely Felton, for instance, is worth LESS in the middle of this season than he is right now. At worst he'll probably stay the same, but it's possible Brown improves him, either in terms of running the team, or (more likey) on defense. Still, I do imagine that some people think our players are more substantial pieces than they really are.

Rich/Fats: I think I addressed your points already... it seems like "hope a player breaks out" is our main long-term strategy right now, which isn't one that I'm thrilled with. I just don't see a lot improvement happening for anybody on the team; I realize they're all under 26, but the only guy who I can really imagine skyrocketing in his performance is Ray, and that's mostly because he's been below-average so far. I guess ultimately I agree with Fats; we stockpile assets, hope the team squeaks into the playoffs, and try to build our reputation as an okay team for a free agent to sign with.

[W_HAMILTON]

We just had three teams fall out of the playoffs this past season (Miami, Chicago, New Jersey), and for really no explicable reason, outside of maybe injuries to Miami. New Jersey traded Kidd, but one of the main reasons they did that is because they were floundering to begin with. Chicago just fell off the map. They just weren't as good as they had been. The same thing will happen to some teams this year ahead of us as well.

I think a lot of the teams that took advantage of a weaker East will fall back to earth this year (ie, Orlando, Atlanta, and would have included Philly in this list, but maybe not now that they got Brand).

Unless there are some major moves still to come, I'll tell you this:

Boston PROBABLY won't win more than 66 games.
Orlando won't win more than 52 games.
Detroit won't win more than 59 games.
Atlanta won't win more than 37 games.
Indiana won't win more than 36 games.
New Jersey PROBABLY won't win more than 34 games.

That's at least six teams that finished ahead of us that will most likely have fewer wins this upcoming season than this past season. Now, that doesn't mean we are going to be beating them and taking away all of their wins, but they are going to be brought back some regardless of who is beating them.

I am pretty sure we will win more than 32 games, barring MAJOR injuries.

I don't know what more you can hope for, than a situation like this. A lot of teams ahead of us will probably win fewer games. We will probably win more games. And I wouldn't guarantee that any of the teams behind us win more games than us (they might, but I wouldn't say it's a lock at all).

[Paydro70]

I don't know if it's "likely" for Atlanta, Detroit, and Orlando to do worse than last season. Detroit might fall off if Chauncey, Rip, or Sheed decline, though at the same time they have reason to think that Stuckey, Maxiell, and Amir Johnson would step up. Orlando's exactly the same team, and Dwight Howard still has plenty of room for improvement. Atlanta's quite young; who do you think is going to decline?

Agreed that Indiana, Jersey, and Boston will probably win fewer games, though Boston's decline is likely to be marginal (5 games?).

At the same time, the Sixers are going to win more games, Miami is going to win more games (possibly MANY more games), and I think Toronto is pretty likely to win more games. So I don't think there's any reason to think that there are more wins out there for us in the East.

As I noted earlier, our team might have won 32 games, but it was really playing like a 29-win team. Our marginal roster improvement (most notably Augustin for McInnis/Boykins) might be worth as much as 5 wins, but I think we're still looking for Larry Brown to swing us at least another 6-8 games. That isn't crazy, but I do think it's optimistic, and that's just to have us scrapping for the 8-seed.

What more can I hope for? I guess not much; unless we got a lopsided deal, I don't see how we could improve our team's talent level substantially right now. But I feel like right now we're dark horses for the playoffs.

[chabber]

I'm with Paydro and fats. I don't expect us to make the playoffs this year maybe not for the next few years. Of course most of that will depend on the improvement LB can get out of Felton and Okafor. I don't doubt that LB can get our guys playing the right way and within his system. I just don't think the team is constructed well enough and obviously lacks talent. I don't know maybe Dudley steps up, DJ or maybe Alexia surprises but no matter what with the personnel we have we're heading for 30-45 wins at best for the next few years. I'm fine just trying to make the playoffs now like fats said but that's only because we're an expansion team and getting there is a kind of milestone. Normally I'd much rather blow it up and find anyway possible to get our first superstar. I don't want to turn into the clippers or warriors who are consistently mediocre enough to just miss the playoffs. That was my worst fear with the decisions we were making from the beginning and at least from my perspective the last few years we're already falling into that hole.

[W_HAMILTON]

You think Detroit is going to win 60+ games? You think Orlando is going to win 55? I guess Atlanta could win 39 or 40 games, but if they have improved even less than we have, why would you think they would improve over what was probably a fluke of a season last year? If we had just maintained status quo last year with coach and PG, we could have just as easily been in Atlanta's place. They didn't do anything special, they just didn't have many of the setbacks as a few teams had, and as such they slip into the playoffs with a few more wins than us by making a few adjustments to areas of their team that had been lacking in previous years.

That's not much different than us, who made "tweaks" to the two biggest problems of last year's team, and probably the two most important positions for THIS team (coach and PG).

[conleyorbust]

You think Detroit is going to win 60+ games? You think Orlando is going to win 55? I guess Atlanta could win 39 or 40 games, but if they have improved even less than we have, why would you think they would improve over what was probably a fluke of a season last year? If we had just maintained status quo last year with coach and PG, we could have just as easily been in Atlanta's place. They didn't do anything special, they just didn't have many of the setbacks as a few teams had, and as such they slip into the playoffs with a few more wins than us by making a few adjustments to areas of their team that had been lacking in previous years.

That's not much different than us, who made "tweaks" to the two biggest problems of last year's team, and probably the two most important positions for THIS team (coach and PG).

Don't forget we (Atl) traded for Bibby at the deadline which meant we only had a point guard for a couple of months and he came in at the end of the season with little time to establish rythm.

[fluffernutter]

One thing I think we should keep in mind.

We have gotten rid of a coach who wasn't just an average NBA coach and replaced him with LB.

We got rid of an incredibly bad NBA coach. Perhaps the worst in the league. Or at least in the bottom 3.

If X is an average coach, and might get a given team to win X games, I don't think it is a stretch to say that Vincent, with the same team, might win X-5 games. Nor is it much of a stretch to say that LB might win X+5 games. I think that Vincent is actually more of a negative than LB a positive. I honestly think Vincent would result in something like X-8. The point is, we are not just getting rid of a negative. We will soon be a better coached team than most NBA teams. That's a swing OUT of negative INTO positive. I think 10 games due to coaching/actually running plays/running plays on timeouts/not being (Please Use More Appropriate Word)/teaching defense/drafting wisely/etc. is good for 10. I really do.

Then we have the other negatives which are gone. Mcinnis. He wasn't just an average backup or starting PG. He was a really, really bad one. The worst in the league. We routinely lost 10 points when he was on the floor 30 minutes. Midget Boykins wasn't much better; his scoring was unable to match his defensive problems, which were huge.

Just throwing these two players away and replacing them with average NBA players will result in major dividends. I'm hoping that we actually will replace a McInnis/Felton/JRich/Wallace/Okafor with another combination where the McInnis replacement is, you know, somebody that actually contributes. Like a PF or something. Something crazy like that. This represents another swing out of the negative into the positive.

So, yeah, it does not look like a lot is going on. And the team "looks the same" from the outside.

Kinda.

Except for LB. And the fact that we have gotten rid of our worst players. And our defense will probably improve. And our rotations and substitutions won't suck. And we will have more plays than "swing it around to GWall and let him do something 1 on 1."

You don't see a different team Paydro. I do. By god, I do. Don't underestimate the horribleness of Vincent and McInnis just because they are now gone.