Why the Clippers Should Not Focus on Smoove

[conleyorbust]

COB- I just think that its pretty ridiculous to say that Smith isn't worth signing to a max offersheet if you also think that atlanta should match a max offersheet.

If you are talking about whether Randolph is worth Mobley and Thomas thats a whole different conversation. That actually would generate caproom for the Clippers, not eliminate it.

And the Gasol trade was just what happens when a GM worse than BK deals a superstar. No one thinks it was a good deal for Memphis. (except perhaps the Memphis owner)

With regards to Smith and a max offersheet, I wouldn't offer him one right off the bat but if he signs a max offer sheet (looking unlikely), I'd like to know what the ASG had in mind for our disaster recovery plan before I let him walk. Again, context.

I thought that Thomas would be moved in a deal for Randolph, I might be mistaken but I see that being acceptable for both teams as the Clippers end up with a talented player and the Knicks can say they get a better shot at Bron AND reunited Thomas with the coach that led him in his best seasons.

Regardless, the Gasol trade happened because the Memphis owners wanted something (less salary on the books so he doesn't have to bleed money while he looks for some other poor sap to buy that team) and he got it. No one else was offering anything, so he traded a player he had no reason to keep. Same way we got Bibby for a second rounder.

IF the Clippers, like the Sixers, are convinced that low block scoring is the way to go (and Dunleavy may very well be of this mind) than Randolph fills that need as well as anyone. IF the owner of the Clippers doesn't want to be in danger of lux tax when he resigns Thornton and Gordon (given his stingy nature...) than maybe he wants a deal that ends sooner.

Now I can't speak for Elgin Baylor but I can say what it looks like to me. If the Clippers want to keep from burdening themselves with long term contracts and they really want low post scoring, Randolph makes sense. If they just want the player with the most upside and potential for impact on both ends, they should make an offer to Smith.

Its about context and you aren't using any for the specific situation which is why you were dead wrong about Gasol's value.

[killbuckner]

Cob- you know that Thornton and Gordon don't come up for extension for another 3 years right? You really think that the Clippers are worried about the Luxury tax in 2011 considering they currently have only 3 players under contract for that season?

But sure- coming up with possible reasons to go in a different direction I have no problem. Trading Mobley and Thomas for Randolph and still having max dollars to use in FA could work. I just think its funny when people come up with crazy plans that don't actually make any sense and convince themselves that this is what the clippers SHOULD do.

I still use the litmus test of apply it to the Hawks in a S&T situation. If you were the Hawks and could S&T Smith for Iguodala and wasted roster space (say Speedy and Zaza) for Randolph and max caproom then maybe people could be talked into it- its at least within the range of discussion. But when its a choice between just having either Randolph or Smith and its obvious that the Hawks would laugh at it, then the clippers would likely laugh at it as well.

[Rod700]

NO ONE outside of this board thinks that the Hawks are SURE to match a max offer to Josh Smith. You guys act like the Clippers have lost something significant if the Hawks match that offer- they just move on to their next plan. They are the only team left in FA- they don't lose anything by signing that offersheet and having it matched. You can say that you hope that thats what the hawks do- but its crazy to think that if you weren't a Hawks fan you would say that the Clippers would be better off trading for Randolph instead.

I'm sure you don't mean "no one" as absolutely every person, so I'll assume you mean that people outside this board are generally open to the notion that Smith might be obtainable. That's because people outside this board are naturally going to be thinking wishfully in what they can gain, and the Hawks fans on this board know how dependent we are on Josh Smith. None of the other fans lived through the Hawks' hard times and know how awful we were for so long, and how any success we had was largely dependent on two players, and still is. No one outside this board realizes how essential he is to the team. Our defense is almost totally reliant on him. They just look at some stats and put a dollar figure on him. The people on this board know his value to his team beyond his stats.

[conleyorbust]

Cob- you know that Thornton and Gordon don't come up for extension for another 3 years right? You really think that the Clippers are worried about the Luxury tax in 2011 considering they currently have only 3 players under contract for that season?

But sure- coming up with possible reasons to go in a different direction I have no problem. Trading Mobley and Thomas for Randolph and still having max dollars to use in FA could work. I just think its funny when people come up with crazy plans that don't actually make any sense and convince themselves that this is what the clippers SHOULD do.

I still use the litmus test of apply it to the Hawks in a S&T situation. If you were the Hawks and could S&T Smith for Iguodala and wasted roster space (say Speedy and Zaza) for Randolph and max caproom then maybe people could be talked into it- its at least within the range of discussion. But when its a choice between just having either Randolph or Smith and its obvious that the Hawks would laugh at it, then the clippers would likely laugh at it as well.

I realize when they come up for extension, the season when Randolph's contract comes up. Which is why he, specifically, is pertinent. Its not something that every team would take into account but, like it or not, as of right now the talent difference between Smith, Okafor, and Randolph isn't that big and if all 3 were put in a vacuum there are people who would select any one of the 3 based on different competencies. With that being said, Sterling is the type who seems like he wouldn't want to pay the lux tax, if he thinks he can stay fairly competitive for a few years and then dump a huge contract and resign his guys, maybe that works.

I'll say two things, first I'm not saying that this is what they SHOULD do. I'm looking at what they have done, which is attempted a trade for Randolph and kept the lines of communication open, and giving reasons for why that was their first choice of action.

Second, Zach Randolph doesn't pass well, he doesn't play defense, he has a criminal record, and he's ugly as hell. He is also an accomplished go-to scorer which is what the Clippers need. If the Clippers sign Josh to a max contract, they have an ultra-promising young core that will probably reach fruition in 3 years just as Baron Davis fizzles out. If they sign Randolph, they immediately fill their biggest need (interior scoring, not shotblocking, not transition points, not post defense, not athleticism on the wing, not perimeter shooting - the things you'd get from the 04' RFAs) and have a better shot at competing for the playoffs during the rest of Baron's prime and can then rebuild how they see fit as his era comes to an end.

That could be the mind set considering, whether you consider it the more prudent move or not, they have already made a move in that direction.

[killbuckner]

Rod- All your reasons are why you think the Hawks SHOULD match a max offersheet. I don't see how anyone can be SURE that the ASG actually will match a max offer. Those are far different things.

[Rod700]

Rod- All your reasons are why you think the Hawks SHOULD match a max offersheet. I don't see how anyone can be SURE that the ASG actually will match a max offer. Those are far different things.

I see your point. What I should have said is that these are reasons why the front office will offer the full amount. I personally don't think that what he does on the floor is worth the max, but he is a cornerstone of the team. To specify:

They will offer the max because: he is a cornerstone of the team, the ownership and front office have both been fairly incompentent for years, and they know Smith is one of the very few things they've done that puts butts in the seats. From a business standpoint, the fair-weather fans know that JJ scores points and Smith blocks shots. That's what pays the bills.

[Clip34life]

Truth.

[conleyorbust]

Rod- All your reasons are why you think the Hawks SHOULD match a max offersheet. I don't see how anyone can be SURE that the ASG actually will match a max offer. Those are far different things.

The other reason they might not be targeting Josh is that they feel pretty confident that they can get Zach/Sheed/Haslem (but probably Zach as he is the only scorer out of those 3) down the road so they target a RFA wing now knowing that Philly and Chi are less likely to match an exorbant offer than Atlanta or Charlotte, not because the ownership of our franchises are more likely to pay but because the market value for a big is higher.

[killbuckner]

So Rod- you really think that there is a 100% chance that the Hawks will match any offersheet to Smith? If I put up $1 you would bet $100 against that no problem- its just free money for you since the Hawks are sure to match right?

For my money I think that they would probably match a max offer. I don't have any idea what they would do with a max offer and a max signing bonus. Coming up with 14 million dollars cash in 7 days and paying smith something like 25 million dollars this season is not at all a sure thing.

[killbuckner]

but COB- why do you think it would be more likely that they could get a PF with their scraps rather than a wing? I mean basically you are talking about either adding a wing using capspace and then going back and picking up a bargain PF, or using capspace on a PF and then finding a bargain wing.

At least for my money its a whole lot easier to find a wing on the cheap rather than a starting PF. Maybe the Clippers think they have the chance to buy Randolph for pennies on the dollar. Maybe they really just don't like Smith. But I think that if I were the GM I would likely be picking between Smith, Okafor, and Biedrins and then go back for the rest of it as plan B if all those other teams matched. There is just no downside to making those offers- all of FA is pretty much on hold until the Clippers money is decided.

[conleyorbust]

but COB- why do you think it would be more likely that they could get a PF with their scraps rather than a wing?

But I think that if I were the GM I would likely be picking between Smith, Okafor, and Biedrins and then go back for the rest of it as plan B if all those other teams matched.

Well for one, I probably agree with you. I think Smith could be a really special player down the road. Thats me though, not Baylor, Dunleavy, or Sterling.

Maybe it is easier to get a starting wing with scraps than a starting power forward. Thats academic though. The situation today is that Zach Randolph fills a certain need even better than Smith/Okafor/Biedrins; he is in New York, a team with near infinite finances and a shot to land a guy that has the potential to be the GOAT if they can get rid of Randolph's contract. Those are the facts, whether or not it is more likely in a given year to land a wing for nothing doesn't really matter when, as of today, there is a 20-10 PF available for nothing.

I do think it is more likely to offer big money to Deng or Iggy and not get matched than to Smith or Okafor. Mainly because they have less value. Then you just throw the shorter contract(s) to NY and get Randolph for nothing of real value and you have all your roles filled.

That is what COULD happen based on the moves they have been making. Maybe they just look at Smith and Okafor and say that, even if they are more valuable long term, they don't fill the need as well as Randolph. Maybe they want Randolph because he has a shorter contract and they can move Tim Thomas in the deal. Maybe they just don't like the RFAs very much. Maybe they think Smith and Okafor don't want to play for them.

I'm not qualitatively judging anything but so far we know that they have tried to trade for Randolph, we know that they have contacted players who don't fill as pressing of a need, what are the possible explainations?

[evildallas]

If the Clippers sign a top dollar RFA first whether be it a wing or a PF then their options for further acquisitions dwindle. The bargain PFs might be Gomes or Smith from Minnesota or Landry for Houston (although the refusal to take the MRI would scare me) The bargain wings might include Matt Barnes or Kelenna Azubuike from the Warriors or Ricky Davis from Miami. There won't be many bargains left that late in the process at either position. They can afford to trade for either first and then do signings, but they have to have something that the the other teams want in order to do that (which is why I think NY is still likely).

If Josh Smith is still the Clippers target, then I am starting to believe that the likelihood of keeping Josh Smith could depend on whether Atlanta gets a chance to better an offer before he signs an offer sheet. If he signs a front-loaded offer sheet with a max 17.5% bonus then they could balk. I still think it would be a HUGE mistake to let him go for nothing to Donald Sterling, but I can't dismiss the possibility that they just can't come up with the money. Of course this still relies on the Clippers to make a front loaded offer of huge proportions which would be new for them.

If he comes back with an offer from the Clippers for 5yr/70M with 12.3M in signing bonus and 9.5M first year base, then maybe the Hawks counter with a max deal without a signing bonus if he doesn't sign the offer sheet. That is a possibility, but it depends on how the negotiations are handled. FYI, my understanding is that we can match a contract with a signing bonus, but as a contract extension we can't include a signing bonus.

[killbuckner]

dallas- the Hawks certainly can include a signing bonus if they want to, its just not normally done. The teams are very hesitant to give out signing bonuses just because if you end up trading a player you have already eaten that cost and don't get any of that money back plus you would simply rather have that money invested rather than liquidated. but there is no rule saying that you can't give a signing bonus in that situation.

[Harry10]

WOW.... so the Clippers are officially out of the race, Warriors are also out of the race for Smoove, and the Sixers don't need a PF any more.

...... so is it official, their are no more teams that can make an offer to Smoove without a S&T?

[raleigh]

The Grizz can offer between $62 and $67M, but they won't. And Smith wouldn't sign there anyway.

This should get wrapped up quickly. The Hawks need to know what to do with the rest of the bench.