Young BIGS - Al Jefferson VS Andrew Bynum

[celticfan42487]

For what it's worth though I think Perkins has shed about 15-20 of those 280 pounds since his rookie year so Love could be near the same weight as Perkins.

[stop-n-pop]

Big Al's lack of free throws is pretty troubling. He carried a ft/fg rate of 20 and that is simply terrible for a frontcourt player with his type of efficiency numbers. You have to go all the way down to Shawn Marion (ranked 23 in PER) to find a frontcourt player who gets to the line as poorly as Jefferson. He's closer to TJ Ford and Jose Calderon than he is to players like Amare, Bosh, Howard, etc. In Jefferson's defense, at least in terms of this particular argument, are a few things:

1- Bynum isn't exactly a FT burner
2- Jefferson was all on his own offensively for the majority of the season

As I mentioned in the Canis Hoopus articles that were linked on page 2 of this thread (thanks for the link, BTW), Jefferson makes up for many of his deficiencies by doing a number of things very well; namely, he doesn't turn the ball over a lot for a guy who handles it as much as he does, he rebounds the hell out of the ball, and he shoots well from the field. 3 out of 4 factors aint bad.

The Wolves were the 27th worst offensive and defensive team in the league last year. They carried a 104.9 Ortg and a 113.4 Drtg. Both of those are scores that are not out of whack with distortion score rankings; i.e. they aren't sucking with smoke and mirrors...which is a good thing. What is interesting about the distortion scores is that the Wolves outperformed their efficiency numbers on the defensive end of the court more than they did on offense. Had their efficiency numbers matched the league position rankings, they would have given up 106.3 ppg while scoring only 95.4. Is this a goofy stat? Yes. Does it have some use? Yes. Where am I going with all of this?

In order for the Wolves to be a functional middle-of-the-road team this season (which would be quite an improvement), they would have to get their Ortg as close as possible to 108.4 and their Drtg as close as possible to 109. These 2 numbers are Portland's ORtg and Indy's Drtg from last year. In order to get there, they need to gain 4.4 pts on the defensive end while netting 3.5 more on the offensive end. The question now becomes which one of these numbers (or both) can the Wolves hit?

In the real world situation of getting to pick between OJ Mayo, Kevin Love, and Brook Lopez, the Wolves found a way to maximize their assets by turning Mayo into Love + Miller + future assets (cap space flexibility). In terms of this real world situation, could Mayo have helped the team improve their Drtg more than Love + Miller could help them improve their Ortg? Does Love > Gomes as far as interior defense goes? If so, is Love + Jefferson + Foye + a greater defensive team than Foye + Mayo? Moving the discussion into the future, which number could the Wolves max out more than the other? Can a team with Jefferson in the frontcourt and Foye in the backcourt get its Drtg low enough to be a top 10 defensive performer (107.5)? Or can a team with Jefferson, Love, Miller, and Foye get its Ortg high enough to be a top 10 offensive performer (112.1)? Interestingly enough, both of the #10 teams are the Denver Nuggets. I'm not saying they should aspire to Nugget-dom, but they do have to play with the hand they were dealt in terms of the draft and an up tempo (and less distorted...this is where they part with the Nugs) style might be the ticket.

If Love turns out to be the player that his college stats suggested he could be, Jefferson is going to be the Wolves' starting center for a long time. While they have a smaller number to cover in terms of becoming a top 10 defense (current Drtg to top 10 Drtg), they should be able, at the very least, to hold the defensive line with Love instead of Gomes at the 4 while being able to increase their Ortg with Miller and Love filling out the lineup. Again, if Love is what he's cracked up to be, the Wolves have 2 inside scorers with 3 guys who can shoot 40% from 3. I think it's pretty obvious they've chosen the bombs away route.

In this context, Jefferson doesn't have to be anything but a center who can outperform his opponent by merit of superior offensive firepower. Using 2 players that are supposed to give him trouble as ane example, and as far as two way play is concerned, Amare will always be worse on d and Jefferson probably has a shot at being better on defense than does a player like Chandler (or even Howard) on offense. In terms of offense, he's a guy you can dump it down to in the 4th a'la Duncan.

Getting around to the question at hand: Bynum hasn't done anything yet. He's coming off a pretty significant knee injury and his team went to the Finals without him. Jefferson wins this one.

Finally, getting back to the free throw item: Jefferson takes a surprising amount of jump shots. When Foye came back the two didn't really click with the pick and roll/pick and pop and his FT numbers started to slip even more after Feb. The guy needs the ball in the low block and he's not a big threat off the jumper from the FT line out. When he was simply allowed to camp out in the block, he had a lot of and-ones. Hopefully, Love will help with this part of his game.

Oh well, I've gone on long enough with this one. I'd go with Jefferson.

[tsherkin]

good write up tsherkin.

Thanks.

Remember, first and foremost when reading my posts, I consider Al to be a borderline All-Star who should blossom into an All-Star once his team catches up with him. I think he'll be a very successful player and I totally advocate keeping him down in the post on offense; I think he's decent enough against 4s that if you put a 5-man who can defend and block shots out there and maybe float to the high post with a short jumper that Al can be an effective "4," the same way Duncan's a "4," you know? A center who guards 4s (although in Tim's case it's so he can act as a floating help defender rather than from any inadequacy).

I respect Al a lot as a player and enjoy watching him in action because his post moves are wonderful, even when he's not drawing fouls. I just want to make that clear; I criticize and break down his game and whatever but at the end of the day, I have a great deal of respect for his present achievements and potential.

The sample size of the stats are very limited, that is a serious point to take because Al rarely if ever played the 4 last year. And at the 5 he played next to a 3 pretending to be a 4. I think that and the fact that our wing defense was horrible contributes to his negative defensive stats. I think he is at least an average defender. Hardly a defensive liability.

I only consider him a defensive liability against power players and guys much quicker than he, because he's neither an imposing musculature nor a really dangerous athlete. He also struggles against polish players like Chris Kaman (who put up around 16/15 on over 63% shooting in 2 games against Minny, during which Jefferson played a good 38-40 minutes each time). Kaman dropped 16/16/2 and 5 blocks in one game and 16/13/1 and 2 blocks in the other game (and again, shot 63.2% FG). Having said that, he did just fine himself against Kaman; offense is not a problem in that he doesn't struggle to score against 5s, it's just defensively he doesn't do well against them.

His Ft story is very sad. I hope coaching can improve that. He has the tools to make it happen. If anything--on the positive--it should help keep him healthy.

Traditionally, DrawF comes from either outstanding athleticism or extreme strength, neither of which Al possesses. The major historical example of this not being the case is, of course, Adrian Dantley but Al isn't really a high post player and doesn't (yet) have the jumper to really make that happen. He's working on that rip-through and what-not but frankly, I don't see him getting a lot better at this and I don't think it's something coaching will fix.

But, I'm neither omniscient nor privy to the style of Minny's big man coaching, so it's possible that he puts on some weight (which I'd worry about, because that's historically caused him health issues) and/or stopped going for hooks when he could get leaners and up-and-unders and such. We'll see. If nothing else, he's still at "least" a 20/10 big man and of greater value than Zach Randolph.

[tsherkin]

1- Bynum isn't exactly a FT burner

True, but Bynum was at .397 this past season over his 35-game stretch, which is actually acceptable. Not outstanding but considerably better than Jefferson. Moreover, he was getting a lot of single-coverage and open dunks (in transition, alley-oops off the pinch post action and pick-and-roll, etc), so it's not easy to be a huge DrawF guy in that capacity. Again, still better than Al.

2- Jefferson was all on his own offensively for the majority of the season

Definitely a fairly legitimate point, though Big Al consistently drops opportunities to draw fouls because he has such a polished post game, ironically enough. His footwork is so good that he usually has such excellent separation as to be nowhere near his defender when he's taking his shot, eliminating the possibility of a drawn foul. He almost never leans into his man when he could pivot for a hook shot with his whole body protecting the ball, etc, etc.

Having said that, I don't think his defensive issues really take away from how amazing a player he is, especially when you consider how young he still is at this time.

If Love turns out to be the player that his college stats suggested he could be, Jefferson is going to be the Wolves' starting center for a long time.

Offensively, absolutely; Love is a good high/low post player with a strong jumper, pretty much the ideal guy to stick next to Al in order to keep him in the post while still retaining a strong post option for when Al sits. Love, of course, is also about 6'10 in shoes and is noticeably stronger than Jefferson... and a little more athletic, surprisingly enough.

Amare will always be worse on d and Jefferson probably has a shot at being better on defense than does a player like Chandler (or even Howard) on offense.

Amare is the worst starting man defender at the 4 or 5 in the entire league. He's considerably more efficient than Jefferson and has much bigger DrawF, though, and that means that the matchup is invariably in his favor unless he's having an off-night.

And no, Al doesn't have a shot at being better on D than is Dwight on O, though he certainly could be better on D than is Chandler on offense. Chandler's got pretty much three offensive moves: alley-oop, dump pass and tip-slam and pretty much nothing else. Dwight, however, is a DrawF king who scores over 20 ppg on extremely high efficiency, he's one of the best offensive players in the league and he's not even remotely polished. Al isn't touching that kind of production or potential defensively.

Getting around to the question at hand: Bynum hasn't done anything yet. He's coming off a pretty significant knee injury and his team went to the Finals without him. Jefferson wins this one.

Perfectly legitimate comments; Bynum's claim to fame is 35 games; Al's is a 21/11 season with nearly 4 orpg over 82 games on the heels of a 69-game 16/11 season.

The only problem? He went from 13 shots and 4.3 FTA/g to 18 shots and 4.8 FTA/g. He did noticeably decrease his foul rate, though, which was hugely impressive, and he also got himself over 70% FT (over 72%, actually), which is outstanding for a big man.

Hopefully, Love will help with this part of his game.

A very interesting point; with Love on the floor, Jefferson won't likely be in the high post spots, since Love will be floating in the 13- to 18-foot range because of his J, though they can alternate because Love is clearly a talented backdown, low-block guy. Should be interesting.

[stop-n-pop]

As a Wolves fan, the interesting thing about building a team around Jefferson is that he's an anti-KG in terms of what he brings to the table: dominant interior scoring, calling for the ball in the 4th, etc. Unlike KG who is a defensive monster, a solid passer, and a superstar intangibles sort of guy, Jefferson forces the Wolves to pull a 180 in terms of surrounding their main player with the type of talent that will make him, and the team, successful. While I'll never be very optimistic with McHale and Co., I am hoping that their luck with a different type of player will produce different results as far as Jefferson is concerned.

In regards to some of the things listed above, the question with Jefferson is this: "How do you maximize his talent and impact?" He's so poor on the defensive end and so without a mid-range game that the type of mid-range shooting defensive center that would be ideal to pair him with just doesn't seem to exist...at least it's not within the range of the Wolves' limited assets. This is a functional problem: a big low post guy like Lopez might not have been enough to take pressure off of him on the offensive end and he may not have even been an improvement on the defensive side of the court. I think the Wolves best shot is to squeeze out modest team defensive numbers (between 15-20 with Drtg) and maximize their offensive efficiency by running a high/low post offense with a bunch of shooters on the perimeter. Hopefully, a guy like Foye, McCants, or a 1/2 from next year's draft can provide a bit of dribble-drive penetration, but I think the way Jefferson is constituted as a player, you have to focus on the offensive end of the court unless you can find a diamond in the rough center that can be a defensive enforcer while playing the high post. The alternative to this is to not build around Jefferson, but I don't think that is an option for the Wolves. There's just not a good way to make it work without raising other negative aspects of his game. Hopefully, Love will prove adept at guarding a few of the players Jefferson has trouble with. Jefferson is a nice player to build a team around but there are some pretty obvious limitations as far as the type of team you can have around him...especially when real world draft situations and existing rosters come into play. If you could start from scratch and view this argument simply in terms of potential and fantasy drafts, Bynum has a bit more value because he's more of an open-slate kind of guy you can build around, but Jefferson's value is a bit more specific (and therefore limited) but no less interesting. I think the Wolves could have a lot of success if they increased their pace and focused more on transition. I'd also like to see them work in a bit of dribble drive motion to compliment the high/low post.

[ecuhus1981]

What was Jefferson doing at 20 years old?

I'll take Bynum.

[Basti]

What was Jefferson doing at 20 years old?

I'll take Bynum.

what MVP player and one of the better all around players did Jefferson have?

I'm just thinking of this. I really like Bynum but I think we shouldn't compare them because of so many different scenarios around them.

[Derekman]

I'll aggree that Al is better right now, but for a team like the Lakers looking for a compliment for Gasol's game, Bynum is the answer.

[Goubot]

Al's foul drawing ability last season was pretty perplexing. I saw him a lot in Boston, and he was fairly adept at using his post game to draw fouls. Though Al did fairly well while facing double teams and acting as the focal point of opposing defenses, I always wondered why he stopped drawing fouls quite as well.

[revprodeji]

Weird thing is he seemed like he was doing a good job of it last year. Simply on film he appeared to draw more contact than KG did the prior year, maybe it is the refs or the rep of the team?

[tsherkin]

Weird thing is he seemed like he was doing a good job of it last year. Simply on film he appeared to draw more contact than KG did the prior year, maybe it is the refs or the rep of the team?

He's young, playing on a bad team and doesn't have a rep for actively seeking contact, so yeah, I'm sure refs missed a few calls in his favor each game. But it's telling that he had a marked drop-off in the second half of the season. I think he got sick of trying for the fouls when they weren't coming and simply decided to go with what was working. Most of his moves are explicitly non-draw moves anyway because his footwork is so good. He needs to get up to about 0.4 FTA/FGA and that may come in time if he continues to apply himself to initiating contact. This was his first 20+ ppg season, so many next year he'll get a little more respect. It'd be nice if he did, it'd really help his scoring efficiency and the overall impact of his game.

Realistically, Al just needs to be drawing 7 FTA/g or so, he doesn't need to be Shaq, Dwight or Amare. Duncan has comfortably worked a career average of 7.3 FTA/g on 0.45 FTA/FGA. That means if Al continues to get 17 or 18 shots a game, we should reasonably expect between 6.8 and 8.1 FTA/g from him if he's drawing at an acceptable level. Anything in that range is fine... hell, even 6 to 6.5 is fine at this point (more Garnett than Duncan at that point, though, and with considerably less range, that's less valuable), if only as a stepping stone to a higher draw rate.

We'll see; Jefferson is extremely young still, so he's got all the time and he certainly has the body for it. Duncan doesn't stun with footspeed or hops either, it's all footwork, leaning in, baiting the defender off his feet, etc.

[Devilzsidewalk]

What was Jefferson doing at 20 years old?

being injured just like Bynum

[TheSheriff]

What was Jefferson doing at 20 years old?

being injured just like Bynum

he played 71 games when he was 21. He has never has an injury like Bynum's.

[Basti]

Weird thing is he seemed like he was doing a good job of it last year. Simply on film he appeared to draw more contact than KG did the prior year, maybe it is the refs or the rep of the team?

I also thought it were that case. in the 1st half of the season it seemed as if he averaged about 1 or 2 and-1s per game but as tsherkin noted I can recall that it became way less in the 2nd half of the season.