Latest draft tidbits

[sportscrazy]

Also, what are the chances the Bucs trade up to #2 to draft Calvin Johnson with the Lions taking Adams at four and what would they need to give up to make a deal work?

I think it is likely with Minnesota possibly switching picks with the Browns becoming more realistic if Calvin Johnson is on the board since Johnson would bring that offense together.

This would be my top five if I had to guess as of right now... how likely do you think it is?

1. Oakland Raiders - JaMarcus Russell, QB
2. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (from Detroit Lions) - Calvin Johnson, WR
3. Cleveland Browns - Adrian Peterson, RB
4. Detroit Lions (from Tampa Bay Buccaneers) - Gaines Adams, DE
5. Arizona Cardinals - Joe Thomas, OT

[straightguji]

Basically, where do you think Brady Quinn will be drafted next week?

The three most likely candidates are the Browns, Vikings, and Dolphins it seems.

Are the Browns still leaning towards Adrian Peterson or is it a legit 50-50 between him and Quinn? Which way do you think the Browns will go when all is said and done?

Do the Vikings want Quinn at seven or do they want to at least try Tarvaris Jackson for one year before investing first round draft pick money into a new guy? What do you see the Vikings doing with their pick?

The Dolphins are interested in Trent Green, does adding Green affect their interest in Quinn?

And let's say the Browns do draft Peterson, the Vikings do want to stick with Jackson, and the Dolphins do add Green and decide to fill another need with their pick... how far would Quinn drop? An Aaron Rodgers type of drop or would the Bills or Jaguars (maybe even Packers who could trade Rodgers and add a pick in this year's draft to fill other needs) have to take him if he is still there?

Brady Quinn is #1 on their draft board, so they will take him without hesitation. Having Green as a veteran presence to show Quinn the ropes and start until Quinn is ready would be a good idea.

[Icness]

I've been trying to get as much info as possible the past few days. Some guys have been good about talking, some have been speculatively informative, and some have just friggin' ignored me. The condensed skinny...

--Detroit is indeed actively trying to trade down. Actually if you heard McShay on M&M this morning, everything he said is 100% spot-on. As I put in the "Denver offers kitchen sink to Detroit" thread, the Niners and Falcons are the only realistic suitors, with TB being an outsider at this point. That could change though.

--the first three picks are set in stone: Jamarcus Russell, Calvin Johnson, Brady Quinn. Oakland is merely negotiating with Russell by talking to Quinn and Johnson; not one person I've talked to in the past month believes the Raiders will do anything but draft Russell.

--Odds on Johnson going to Detroit--66% they will draft him, 25% chance they actually keep him. If they trade down, they will: draft Leon Hall at #8, draft either Adam Carriker or Patrick Willis at #11. #4 they would take Gaines Adams. They are going to draft the following at some point in the draft: at least one CB, a MLB with coverage ability, a pass-rushing DE, a developmental QB/QB of the future, and a TE who can help on special teams and hopefully long-snap.

--Odds on the Browns drafting and keeping Quinn--90%. They will only trade down if they are 100% sure they can get Adrian Peterson, which means no further than #6, because WAS will trade with Houston to allow the Texans to get him there. That is from Jason Lacanfora of the Washington Post, whom I've appeared with on a radio show a couple of times.

--Lance Briggs situation: I know the Bears and Giants have talked, but it might be nothing more than Drew Rosenhaus (Briggs' agent) mediating what he hopes is a deal. I will be surprised if Briggs is dealt this weekend, and I am becoming more convinced that Rosenhaus is not going to risk ruining a relationship with the Bears over one of his 2nd-tier clients, and that Briggs is going to have to suck it up and play in Chicago.

--If anyone tells you they know what the Niners are going to do at #11, they're lying. Because the team itself has contingency draft boards for like 50 different scenarios unfolding before them, and they're not even letting their senior scouts see them.

Guys rising:
--Joe Staley, now a lock top-25 pick
--Steve Smith, the Bears love him and he's successfully marketed his YAC ability and great feet
--Trent Edwards, because he wasn't exposed for what he is, thanks to injuries. What he is--the mobility of Drew Bledsoe, the arm of Jeff Garcia, the health of Byron Leftwich. I genuinely feel sorry for any team that takes him before the 4th round.
--Brandon Meriweather
--James Marten
--Daniel Sepulveda (P, Baylor), who kicked 13 of 15 kickoffs through the uprights in a workout. Teams with weak-legged PKs love that, probably makes him the only P to get drafted and it could be early 2nd day.
--Eric Wright, who could sneak into the top 35 picks. His former USC teammates and coaches have greatly helped his value.
--Usama Young (CB, Kent St.), a guy I've crowed about for a long time finally getting recognition after charting eye-popping measurables (4.37 40, 43" vertical). He's a clone of Fabian Washington but with better hands
--Doug Datish (OL, Ohio St.), showed he can play any OL spot but LT. Probably best as a G but his versatile competence will get him drafted in the 3rd-4th instead of the 5th-6th he's mostly projected
--Scott Chandler (TE, Iowa), who is willing to switch to T and has already bulked up to 282 (he's 6'7.5"). Pushed himself up at least a round.

Falling stock:
--Martrez Millner (TE, Georgia), everyone is finally coming around that he's a lazy, dumb underacheiving locker-room cancer. Might not even be drafted, and he was a top-50 prospect preseason.
--DeShawn Wynn, who is still under the delusion he's a 2nd rounder at worst.
--Ryan McBean
--Troy Smith, by now y'all have heard about his disastrous workout and change of throwing style. He also has a delusional chip on his shoulder that really turns off coaches and GMs
--HB Blades, to my surprise and chagrin
--Jay Moore
--Quinn Pitcock, a guy who cracked the top 10 in my pre-season mock but will now be lucky to go before the 5th round.

And for a little fun, I'm in a "Mr. Irrelevant" pool with several scouts and writers. My pick: Brent Celek, TE, Cincinnati.

[Next Coming]

Good stuff.

Usama Young has come out of nowhere in the past month.

Some other interesting news. Adrian Peterson might not be ready for the start of preseason. YIKES!

http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2007/w ... index.html

[PR07]

Icness, can you explain why in the final mock the Colts are taking both Tony Hunt and Michael Bush in round 3? I'd be really happy to get one of them to split some carries with Addai, but isn't 2 kind of excessive given some weaknesses with the D?

I'd be thrilled to land Harrell and Bush or Hunt though.


Actually that is an error, thanks for catching it; I changed the Bush pick late and never dropped Hunt from the other pick. Will be changed ASAP.

[studcrackers]

icness how certain are you that the cowboys will take mason crosby in the 3rd round? you've had him there in the last couple mocks and i remember jerry saying he'd never spend big money on a kicker after the vanderjagt fiasco.

also if jammal anderson or alan branch falls any chance we try and move up to get him? any chance we take joe staley either? what are the odds of the cowboys trading their pick be it up or down?

and what about anthony spencer? in your mock you have him as a 1st rounder but he's not in your real mock, why's reggie nelson dropped so far?

thanks in advance and as always your stuff is great.

[nesta]

reggie nelson is not going to drop that far. Someone will not miss out on the next sean taylor

[Icness]

icness how certain are you that the cowboys will take mason crosby in the 3rd round? you've had him there in the last couple mocks and i remember jerry saying he'd never spend big money on a kicker after the vanderjagt fiasco.

also if jammal anderson or alan branch falls any chance we try and move up to get him? any chance we take joe staley either? what are the odds of the cowboys trading their pick be it up or down?

and what about anthony spencer? in your mock you have him as a 1st rounder but he's not in your real mock, why's reggie nelson dropped so far?

thanks in advance and as always your stuff is great.

The Crosby pick in the 3rd is almost pure speculation on my part. Jerry Jones has let it be known the team will have an upgraded kicking game next year, and he's not been afraid of reaching for needs in the past.

Anderson I could see them chasing, but not Branch. Anderson is a guy who would fall just because teams like other guys better; Branch is a guy who will fall because teams have issues with his conditioning and legs (he's rumored to have bad shin splints).

Nelson--I talked with a friend at PFW and he talked about how Nelson is scaring teams in interviews with his obvious lack of intelligence and how narrow-minded he is. It's very similar to Ko Simpson last year, another guy who can barely sign his name on a contract but plays a great safety, and Simpson fell at least one round further than most people projected. Nelson has been annoying teams with his pestering contact of trying to promote himself. He chose his agent poorly and he's going to pay for that.

Actually that's a fair rule of thumb--if you see a guy of some reknown unexpectedly falling on draft day, it's almost always one of two reasons: lack of intelligence or agent/signability issues. Nelson has both.

[mopper8]

Icness--any chance if the Fins trade down to 15 they nab Staley instead of Ginn?

[snazel]

am I the only one not buying into the hype that the Browns will take Quinn? I think its more between Peterson and Thomas, myself....

[PhilipNelsonFan]

Adam Koets in the third round? Really?? What makes him so special?

[Klomp]

I like that rumor of Minnesota swapping picks with Cleveland and adding D Scott. Any chance of that happening, or is it just a rumor.

[Icness]

I like that rumor of Minnesota swapping picks with Cleveland and adding D Scott. Any chance of that happening, or is it just a rumor.

It's a credible rumor. As with all 99% of even credible rumors, I'll belive it when I see it.

[Icness]

Just talked with someone who knows, and the Panthers are either going to trade down to get Olsen later, or else take Michael Griffin or Adam Carriker at #14. Screws my mock up.

Also, Buffalo is now leaning towards Marshawn Lynch, esp. if SF takes Willis.

One guy who could really fall is Levi Brown. If he doesn't go to Houston at #10, he very well might not stick in the top 20. He will not fall below Dallas though. SF & CAR, the two teams in between who are in the market for a T, both would take Staley over Brown.

[lpsevier]

So is Levi pretty much out of the question for Atlanta @ 8?

[Icness]

So is Levi pretty much out of the question for Atlanta @ 8?

Not necessarily, though I don't see it. I will be shocked if they don't take either Okoye or Landry. I think Brown is Plan C.

I've been told they are no longer interested in trading with Detroit at #2, that they do not want to give up either of their 2nd rounders because they see immediate impact available at those spots, including at WR. And I would agree wholeheartedly with that assessment.

[Next Coming]

Also, Buffalo is now leaning towards Marshawn Lynch, esp. if SF takes Willis.

Back issues no longer a concern?

[lpsevier]

-= original quote snipped =-



Not necessarily, though I don't see it. I will be shocked if they don't take either Okoye or Landry. I think Brown is Plan C.

I've been told they are no longer interested in trading with Detroit at #2, that they do not want to give up either of their 2nd rounders because they see immediate impact available at those spots, including at WR. And I would agree wholeheartedly with that assessment.

Me too and thank God.

[Next Coming]

Eww. Kiper has the Bills taking David Harris with the 12 pick.

[Icness]

Eww. Kiper has the Bills taking David Harris with the 12 pick.

The thing to remember about Kiper is that his projections are terrible. I would never once question his player evaluation or his knowledge of players and what they can and cannot do well. But he gullibly sucks up everything teams tell him about who they might be taking and doesn't back off and consider it very well.

As an example, in the Alex Smith draft he was correct on just 6 of his 1st round projections and missed 13 players by at least 10 slots. The year before that he got 8 of the 1st 9 and then missed the next 17 by at least 2 slots each.

I actually liked his projections this past Monday, but it looks as if he's changed them once again. I try to generally ignore his projections, but his evaluations of players and real value are usually a lot better than his detractors like to admit.