Golden Era ATL *Russell/West regions (1st round)

[penbeast0]

And yet, in the last ATL, someone posted numbers that said that Marion had a significantly bigger defensive impact when playing the 4 rather than the 3 . . . I couldnt find the source so didn't use it here.

[Baller 24]

6-5 for

KINGS v CLIPPERS

&

CELTICS v MAVS

[Myth_Breaker]

6-5 for Clippers v Kings and Mavs v Lakers, who else hasn't voted yet?

It's 6-5 for Kings, not Clippers.

[Baller 24]

6-5 for Clippers v Kings and Mavs v Lakers, who else hasn't voted yet?

It's 6-5 for Kings, not Clippers.

oh yeah thats right, I keep on thinking im the Rockets' for some reason I wonder why

[tkb]

Celtics who are facing Mavs.

[Baller 24]

fixed

[TrueLAfan]

Rebuttal:

I think the best way of looking at this is player area by player area.

Frontcourt. Hakeem and Sampson are terrific. But Garnett and Sikma are better...better rebounders. More range. Better passing. Better defense. (Yes, the difference between Hakeem and Garnett on D is smaller than the difference between Sikma and Sampson.) As I said, I'm thinking I'll put Garnett on Hakeem...I'd rather have the length of KG there. Sampson did not like physical play; Sikma was the more physical defender, and will cause problems for Sampson, who was a bit of an error prone player.

I appreciate the stats of other players vs Hakeem in the playoffs. But since I'm not saying that anyone is going to contain Hakeem—any more than someone is going to stop KG, who went off in the playoffs in the years I have (averaged 25-15-5), it's a moot point. I think Hakeem/Sampson will outscore Sikma/Garnett. But the Clippers duo will rebound better, pass better, and play better D...and part of that will be because Sampson and (in particular) Hakeem will be outside his normal defensive area, which will limit his help D. The extra spacing will hamper Hakeem's weak side D...fewer opportunities for blocks and help.

Backcourt. Moncreif and Billups have a (substantial) defensive advantage and scoring efficiency boost over Paul and Drexler. Paul and Drexler have an advantage in passing and scoring. The thing is that our strengths are better suited to nullifying their strengths than vice versa. Paul and Drexler will considerably less luck in affecting the efficiency of the Clippers backcourt. Having the two time DPOY on Clyde Drexler, on the other hand, is a huge bonus.

Which brings us back to Small Forward. So let's be honest about Tayshaun Prince vs. Paul Pierce, both this year and in general. In the EC finals, Pierce averaged 19.7-5.8-3.8. In the regular season, Pierce averaged 19.5-5.1-4.5. Pierce shot better from the field against Pistons (.494 to .464) and his offensive efficiency was effectively the same as it had been during the regular season.

The player who seemed to have problems in that series was...Tayshaun Prince. Tayshaun's scoring dropped by 30%; he shot barely 30% from the field. After playing great in the opening round and semis, Pierce almost totally shut Prince down. Let's review

2008 regular season

Code: Select all

                  PPG   RPG  APG  FG%   3P%   FT%   TO
Tayshaun Prince   13.2  4.9  3.3  .448  .363  .768  1.1
Paul Pierce       19.6  5.1  4.5  .464  .392  .843  2.8


2008 Eastern Conference finals

Code: Select all

                  PPG   RPG  APG  FG%   3P%   FT%   TO
Tayshaun Prince    9.8  4.3  3.0  .324  .300  .833  2.3
Paul Pierce       19.7  5.8  3.8  .494  .273  .783  2.8


So I'm glad you brought up the playoffs this year, as it proves that not only is Pierce the far superior player, but that his defense seems to have a (much) greater limiting effect on Tayshaun Prince than vice versa.

In general, then, I think we've got a positional advantage.

And, again, I think our spread offense and slashing will affect the overall D and play of the Kings much more than anything they have set up for us. If Sikma's FTA go down, I'm not that concerned...he's not in the top five for FTA in court time on my team. What's more important is that his passing numbers stay good...and that's where the high post Wooden will be a bonus. Better spread = more difficulty to get steals. Sikma's range and essentially unblockable shot is a part of this; he's perfect for this scheme. He may not look like a tough and extremely effective player...but two top 11 finishes in MVP voting (one spot behind Magic in 82; one spot behind Kareem in 83) testifies to how good he was, and how good he will be for us

[zong]

wasnt planning on voting, but it seems theres no other way!

VOTE:



CELTICS





.......KINGS

[Kosta]

C-Mark Eaton
PF-Buck Williams
SF-Dominique Wilkins
SG-Joe Dumars
PG-Magic Johnson

Reserves: Rik Smits, Chris Webber, Kenyon Martin, Rip Hamilton, Ron Harper.

vs



C-Artis Gilmore
PF-Elton Brand
SF-Scottie Pippen
SG-Chris Mullin
PG-Gary Payton

Props to penbeast for creating a great team, especially from his draft position, which is not easy at all.


Gilmore/Brand vs Eaton/Buck

Do the Bullets have a big advantage here? At first glance, you'd think so. But which Artis Gilmore are we looking at here? Yes, still a highly efficient scorer (one of the best all time) but not the dominate Artis that won ABA MVP and made all defensive teams. An all-star, he was, but a dominant force, he was not. Mark Eaton will be matched up with him here and he'll be able to handle Gilmore straight up. Gilmore is giving up 35 pounds here, both will try to impose their physicality on one another, making this one hell of a battle. At the 4 another great battle will brew, two 6'8 PF's who can really bang you around and play some defense. Elton the more gifted offensive player, while Buck scores on better efficiency, the better man to man defender, and holds a big edge in rebounding. Other than post scoring, Buck has the edge here in just about every other area. But it's his rebounding that will certainly make a difference, while Gilmore and Eaton are comparable on the glass when you factor in the per minutes, Buck really gives the Celtics an edge in rebounding overall, with a trb% of 18.7 between '85-'87, while Brand holds an average of 14.7 between '05-'07. This will give the Celtics extra second chance opportunities, and also limit the Bullets offensive rebounding leading to one and outs offensively for Scottie/G.P and the crew.

Scottie Pippen/Mullin guarding Dominique Wilkins

The Bullets will use one of these guys on Wilkins, maybe even a combination of both. Scottie being one of the best perimeter defenders of all time, there's no downplaying that, this guy can straight up shut you down. Well most players that is, not Dominique Wilkins, he was going to score on you no matter who you were. In 32 games against the Bulls from '87-'99 starting from Pippen's first season in Chicago, 'Nique put up better than his averages. Albeit, with a poor record against the Bulls overall, but that probably had more to do with M.J and how great the Bulls were as a team. He put up 27.5 points on 48% shooting vs Jordan AND Pippen. If the Bullets decide to put Mullin on 'Nique, it's going to be a fireworks show with Magic setting it off. Mullin just doesn't have the lateral quicks and athleticism to stay anywhere near Wilkins.

Joe Dumars AND Magic Johnson will take turns on Gary Payton.

The Celtics will be using Joe D on Payton (along with Magic). Dumars much like he did with K.J last round will make life miserable for G.P, smothering him on the perimeter, pressuring and hounding him to be quick and decisive on every single possession. It might even get easier for Dumars as G.P will be focusing so much of his energy trying to stop Magic on the defensive end. It's worth to note that in the 13 games the Pistons/Sonics played between '90-'97, G.P was held way below his averages at 15 points and only 5 assists. Magic Johnson will also get some time guarding G.P, and with his size will take Payton out of his comfort zone in the post.

Gary Payton guarding Magic Johnson

How about the '87 finals and Dennis Johnson for an example? Magic poured in 26.2 points, 13 assists and 8 rebounds on 55/50/96 shooting and a Finals MVP against one of the greatest perimeter defenders of all time. Now I ask you, does Gary Payton stand a chance against a prime Magic?

Payton is only giving up 5 inches and 35 pounds to Magic here, yes, "the glove" was awesome on the perimeter locking down the superstars of his generation, but he never locked down Magic, never seen a point guard like Magic.

Scottie Pippen guarding Magic Johnson

'91 FInals, Lakers vs Bulls, Pippen shutdown Magic?

Game 1: 19 points, 11 assists, 10 rebounds.
Game 2: 14 points, 10 assists, 7 rebounds.
Game 3: 22 points, 10 assists, 6 rebounds.
Game 4: 22 points, 11 assists, 6 rebounds.
Game 5: 16 points, 20 assists, 11 rebounds. (No Worthy or Scott)

This was a banged up Lakers team at the end of their run, Jordan was just too much. But one thing if for sure, Magic didn't get shutdown, and this is not even a prime Magic.

In 9 regular season games vs Chicago's Jordan and Pippen, Magic averaged 18/10.4/6.1 on 52% and 48% from deep. Doesn't mean much, as this was just regular season, 1 game was even in '96. Imagine what a prime playoff Magic would do to Pippen. Probably kind of like what he did to D.J and the Celtics.



Defensively the Celtics will put Wilkins on Pippen, his length, quickness and athleticism is a good match against Scottie on the perimeter. Dumars and Magic will both be switching on Payton at different points in the game, a defensive nightmare for G.P. Defensive rebounding will be a strong point with Buck Williams, Dominique and Magic being such great rebounding players at their positions. There isn't one mismatch the Bullets can seriously exploit on the Celtics side. The Celtics interior defense is excellent led by one of the best shot blockers of all time and will help lower the Bullets frontcourt offensive efficiency. The Celtics also hold great perimeter defense with Joe Dumars leading the charge defensively in the backcourt.

Defensive match-ups for Celtics:

Eaton on Gilmore
Buck on Brand
Wilkins on Pippen
Magic on Mullin and Dumars on Mullin
Dumars on Payton and Magic on Payton

Offensively it's no secret the Celtics will employ their high octane attack led by Magic, up and down the floor, they will try to run the Bullets into the hardwood. Coupled with the Celtics great defensive and offensive rebounding the Bullets will have a tough time slowing this attack. With Magic controlling the game, use your imagination, anything is possible. Magic will use his size on Payton in the post to score and create for others, Dumars and/or Wilkins to attack Mullin off the dribble. It really depends on how the Bullets plan to match-up defensively, but the mismatches are there for the Celtics regardless.

Depth wise, both teams are very strong. The Bullets may be more talented, but how much playing time does a guy like Fat Lever get in this series behind Gary Payton? On the other hand a veteran guy like Ron Harper will be happy to come in and provide good minutes for the Celtics when Magic needs a rest. Byron Scott and Rip Hamilton are pretty even from a bench perspective, both will provide some scoring. Chris Webber and Kenyon Martin will get good minutes as the primary big guys off the Celtics bench, how much p.t do an aging Walton and L.J get, will it be enough for them to maximize their production? Probably not. Both benches are deep. No real advantage either way.

As for intangibles, the Cetics hold 6 chips in the backcourt alone and I don't mean overall for the players careers either. Magic, Dumars and Harper won 2 chips each in the 2 year peaks I have them in. These guys flat out know what it takes to win and help lead a championship caliber team. Magic and Joe Dumars together provide perhaps the most leadership and intangibles of any pairing in this league.


My honest take on this, Magic and with what he has to work with is just too much for a Payton/Pippen led team. The Celtics have Dumars and Magic defending Payton, this will at least even if marginally help slow down G.P, each guy takes away at least one of G.P's main strengths out on the perimeter and in the post. If the Celtics can successfully take G.P out of his game, it's party over, turn off the lights. Up front, the Celtics won't outscore the Bullets duo of Gilmore/Brand but with the Celtics defensive minded bigs they can help bring down Gilmore/Brands efficiency, making them less effective and lowering their overall impact. When you look at the 3/4 positions, the Celtics should end up being more productive when you consider that Buck will have an easier time shutting down Brand than Pippen will have trying to stop a prime Wilkins. So if the Celtics successfully match Brand and Pippen's production, where exactly do the Bullets make up for the edge the Celtics hold with Magic/Dumars in the backcourt? Unless Artis Gilmore becomes the game changer and goes off for historic numbers, I don't see it happening. Magic is the superstar and ultimate game changer in this series, he brings this one home in a close hard fought match.

[Kosta]

Thanks everyone for your votes, Magic takes out Kareem! Let the second round begin, good luck penbest.

[studcrackers]

i still think my team's better