Ok, well what will Marvin be worth?

[td00]

You think he is more valuable than Chills? To me, I think he is more limited. So when it is time for the Stagnates to come forward, are they going to have an easy time after their experience with the Joshes?
Marvin will make a minimum of $7M in his last year as a RFA next year.

Hey, Chills was 6th in voting for 6th MOY award. Where does Marvin rank in the current ranking of SFs? If he came off the bench, would he be as valuable as Chills was?

I think they are of equal level talent and produce very similar numbers at their positions.

[LHughes/JSmooth]

Marvin has way more of that word, potential. Plus he has a better jump shot, not to mention how his jumper looks, but that has nothing to do with it. Marvin is younger I think, and will be a better player. He has to stay with us now, with no one at the SF besides him.

[richboy]

Apparently he will get under the MLE.

[Hawks]

According to ASG he will probably be worth about $2 million per. it doesn't matter anyways we are going to lose him next year. We will lose JJ,Horford,Law,next year 1st round pick when they all become FA.

[ATLfan]

We'll probably let him sign with a Euro team instead of locking him up while we have the chance.

[Rod700]

According to ASG he will probably be worth about $2 million per. it doesn't matter anyways we are going to lose him next year. We will lose JJ,Horford,Law,next year 1st round pick when they all become FA.

We have team options on Hortford and Law the next 2 years, Marv will be a RFA, and JJ has another year on his contract.

I agree that we are going to have trouble retaining our players though, if we don't make a move at some point. I'm in favor of a trade now, but maybe they can make a big signing next near when Bibby and Zaza come off the books.

[killbuckner]

In terms of a big signing next offseason- remember that Childress and Marvin count a combined 25 million against the cap.

[Hawks]

ASG is likely to renounce Chill next offseason. Only way they wouldn't is if they don't plan on making a big move......yep they will make the QO for Chill. Sorry, I forgot who I was talking about there for a sec.

[D21]

In terms of a big signing next offseason- remember that Childress and Marvin count a combined 25 million against the cap.

Even if I agree on the estimated numbers, could you confirm a thing please ?

Since the mid-level exception is $5.585 million for the 2008-09, and Marvin salary is set at $5,636,142, it means that he's getting more than the average salary (unless I made a mistake and we must use next year average salary, certainly higher than Marvin's 5.63M), so the rule for his next summer cap hold is not like this year Smith and Childress (300% of the previous salary) but is 250% of his previous salary:
2.5 x $5,636,142 = 14,090,355

The rule is "Not to exceed the player's maximum salary" so if max is set at 13.8, Marvin's cap hold would be 13.8M. But since max for a four year player was/is $12,455,000 (2006/07), $13,041,250 (200708) and $13,758,000 (2008/09), max for 2009/10 should be at about 14.5M

In this case, Marvin's cap hold would be his 250% so 14,090,355, is that right ?

Back to a estimated 2009 summer:
if Smith signs for 60M/5yrs starting at about 10M, he would be at 11M in 2009/10 and if Marvin signs now or in early 2009 July a 50M/5yrs contract starting at 8.5M, it could gives something like that:

Joe: 15M
Speedy: 5.2M
Al: 4.3M
Acie: 2.2M
Josh: 11M
Marvin: 8.5M
Solomon: 0.8M

Total: 47M if they renounce to Childress, and other free agents (Zaza, Bibby...), with a cap certainly at 61M

Add the minimum salary for the missing slot on the roster, there could still be enough to sign a big player IMO.
I don't see it happening, but there is a possibility.

[evildallas]

Marvin's cap hold is a multiple of his most recent salary with a maximum cap hold of the max salary. For reference, Emeka Okafor's cap hold is listed at 13.568M and he was the #2 pick the year before Marvin.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

So, in theory with all renouncing and no other contracts being added this year we could be around 52M in salary. Not enough for a bidding war.

[td00]

Well, with the way the cap hold looks, it appears that even though Marvin's talent level/contribution at this point doesn't equate to a #2 draft pick, we are going to be in dire straits with trying to sign him early. IMO, he is going to get a higher salary than what he should be getting based on his value to the team. Just because Chills didn't start didn't mean he wasn't as important as Marvin. And we weren't talking about salary numbers that Marvin is approaching simply for the fact of his draft slot, not his contribution.
We are in a world of hurt going forward unless we can either convince Marvin to sign early (which commits us to a player who may not be the high level contributor we need him to be) or we trade Marvin before those talks get stagnate.
This will have to be a proactive move to avoid any more bad press. I guess you could take the same approach and just renounce Marvin, but doing that admits your continuous draft mistakes.
I gotta say letting Marvin go if we don't trade him might be the most viable option should we be in the same situation we are in now. Its obvious management felt it was the best position to take with Chills.
IMO, talks with Marvin will be more important than what we try to accomplish with Bibby. Fortunately, the 2 guys we don't have to worry about for the next 2 offseasons are the franchise cornerstones.

[Master8492]

If he doesn't develop an effective 3pt shot... I think he'll probably get an offer around 5yr/42 mill.

[evildallas]

I would try to ink him at 5yr/50M this summer if you believe he'll develop into a cornerstone (however I'm not sure he signs). If you think he isn't going to reach his potential then start looking for a trade and figure that you can at least keep him another year for the QO of 7.3M.

[D21]

Marvin's cap hold is a multiple of his most recent salary with a maximum cap hold of the max salary. For reference, Emeka Okafor's cap hold is listed at 13.568M and he was the #2 pick the year before Marvin.

http://www.storytellerscontracts.info/resources/08-09salaries.htm

So, in theory with all renouncing and no other contracts being added this year we could be around 52M in salary. Not enough for a bidding war.

Looking at Okafor numbers confirmed what I estimated for Marvin.

Okafor's cap hold is at 13,568,268 , and it's exactly 250% of his 5,427,307 (2007/08 salary).
5,427,307 is higher than the 2007/08 average salary (MLE) of 5,356,000.
If his 2007/08 salary was lower than 5,356,000, it would have been 300% of his 2007/08 salary (like Childress cap hold being at 300% of 3,631,451 = 10,894,353 and Smith 300% of 2,243,543 = 6,730,629).

If Okafor's cap hold is exactly 250% of his previous salary and not max, its because it is lower than 2008/09 max being at $13,758,000. Would have been higher, his cap hold could not exceed this max number.

So Marvin should count next summer for 14,090,355, a little bit less than the 2009/10 max salary for a four years player (unless this max is lower than 14,090,355 ).

But I agree to use max for his cap hold as it will be almost the same amount.

[killbuckner]

D21- you have the numbers right, Its just easier to say that marvin counts as a max contract since in these conversations no one is really concerned with 600k.

The hitch in your scenario is whether marvin would sign EARLY in free agency for a reasonable number. Seriously, how many RFA's do you see signing early on? If the Hawks want to make a run in FA, they likely should trade marvin for a player that they have cost certainty on for next offseason. But you also have to remember that means that Bibby would be leaving so the team would be without a legitimate PG which would almost certainly have to be addressed using that caproom.

[D21]

D21- you have the numbers right, Its just easier to say that marvin counts as a max contract since in these conversations no one is really concerned with 600k.

Agree, I just wanted to be sure in case of a scenario where these 600k would be important
Thanks for the confirmation.

[raleigh]

If he doesn't develop an effective 3pt shot... I think he'll probably get an offer around 5yr/42 mill.

I think that's very accurate.

[td00]

You gotta think that the cost to keep Marvin is just too great for his production. Getting him to develop a 3-pt shot in one offseason probably isn't sensible, but he has to expand his game and keep growing into his role. He has just such an expensive number that I am not sure he could ever justify his salary slot on this team unless he becomes the go-to guy. Will he get to the level of a Carmelo Anthony? The crutch is being Marvin drafted so high.
Marvin has good skills, but not at the level of guys who I will not name (to avoid beating a dead horse) who have already signed prior to their RFA time period.
If the ASG believe that Marvin is a top-3 player on a team, than that is how they can justify their offers to the Joshes. With JJ and Al in the first 2 slots, signing Marvin and Smoove for a combined $20M+/year is a serious hit to the bottom line. We are doing that right now for Bibby and Charles.
In 2 years, it doesn't appear that this team will resemble last year's roster. There are just too many big decisions coming up year after year. You have to handle these in advance of their RFA periods and quit testing the market. The market is only going up re: NBA salaries.